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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Gallup Poll: Americans Closely Split Over Palestinian Statehood - Republicans oppose state 48%:33%

Americans Closely Split Over Palestinian Statehood
by Lydia Saad
http://www.gallup.com/poll/181682/americans-closely-split-palestinian-statehood.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Story Highlights
-Forty-two percent in U.S. favor a Palestinian state, 38% oppose
-Support at lowest point since 2000
-Postgrads, liberals and Democrats show the highest support

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Forty-two percent of Americans favor the establishment of
an independent Palestinian state comprising the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
This is down slightly from 46% a year ago and among the lowest support
levels Gallup has recorded since 2000. Nearly as many Americans, 38%, oppose
Palestinian statehood, while 20% have no opinion on the issue.

Americans' Support for an Independent Palestinian State

Most demographic subgroups of Americans -- men, women, whites, nonwhites and
various age groups -- are more likely to support than oppose the creation of
an independent Palestinian state. However, older Americans buck this
pattern, with 43% of those aged 55 and older opposed to it and 41% in favor.

Even greater differences are seen by educational background. Americans with
higher levels of education are more likely than those further down the
educational ladder to favor Palestinian statehood, and are less likely to
say they have no opinion on the matter. Also, Americans with any college
background are less likely to oppose statehood than those with no college
experience.

Americans' Support for an Independent Palestinian State, Among Major
Demographic Groups

Consistent with Republicans' broadly pro-Israel views, just 33% of
Republicans favor creating a Palestinian state, versus 48% opposing it. By
contrast, a majority of Democrats favor the proposal. Independents tilt in
favor, matching the national average. The pattern is similar by political
ideology, with a third of conservatives in favor versus a majority of
liberals. Moderates' views fall in between.

Gallup previously reported that Americans are much more likely to say their
sympathies in the Middle East conflict lie with the Israelis than with the
Palestinians. Nevertheless, more than a third of those who sympathize mainly
with Israel favor a Palestinian state. On the flip side, 16% of those who
sympathize with the Palestinians oppose it. Among the residual 22% of
Americans who express no partiality in the conflict, half take no position
on the statehood question, while the remainder are more likely to favor than
oppose it.

Americans' Support for an Independent Palestinian State, Among Major
Political Groups

Notably, the overall decline in support for Palestinian statehood seen since
it peaked in 2003 is primarily a function of declining support from
Republicans, and to a lesser degree independents, while Democrats' support
has generally held up. The drop in Republican support, however, has not been
consistent, rising from its all-time low of 29% in 2013 to 41% last year
before dropping again to 33% in the most current reading.

Americans' Support for an Independent Palestinian State, by Party ID

The peak support for Palestinian statehood seen in 2003 came as Republican
President George W. Bush was prodding the Israelis and Palestinians to
support the so-called road map to peace, focused on a two-state solution.
Prior to that, in the last year of Democratic President Bill Clinton's
administration, Republican support for statehood was as low as it is today,
suggesting that for Republicans, at least, partisanship may play a key role
in these attitudes.

Bottom Line

About four in 10 Americans endorse the creation of an independent
Palestinian state, on the low end of what Gallup has found since 2000.
Americans were much more supportive in 2003, when the players were actively
involved in U.S.-led discussions to end the stalemate and Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon -- as well as Palestinian leadership -- seemed to
favor the goal of statehood. Republicans' support has since plummeted,
possibly in part because U.S. diplomacy is now led by a Democratic
president. But independents' support is also down, and Democrats' has ebbed
slightly.

Still, Americans show more support for an independent Palestinian state than
might be expected given the relatively low percentages viewing the
Palestinian Authority favorably (17%) and sympathizing more with the
Palestinians than the Israelis (16%). This suggests Americans at least
somewhat separate their views of Palestinian leadership from Palestinians'
quest for self-determination. Also, some Americans who side more with Israel
but favor statehood may do so believing it will diffuse violence in the
region, benefiting everyone.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted
Feb. 8-11, 2015, with a random sample of 837 adults, aged 18 and older,
living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based
on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4
percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone
respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by
time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are
selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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