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Sunday, November 29, 2015
Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror to IMRA: Settlement Construction Would Not Deter Terror 

SMS from Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA to Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror: I
want to distribute your BESA item today. Can you comment on the your
assessment of the efficacy of "punishing" via settlement construction?
Thanks. Aaron Lerner

SMS reply from Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror: Settlements construction
do not have any influence on these terrorists. It is a political
exploitation of difficult situation, that I don't like.
======================
Cool Heads Needed in the Fight against Palestinian Terrorism
by Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 320

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While there is no doubt that Israel is facing a difficult
security situation, the surge in Palestinian violence does not pose any
existential threat to Israel. Israel has weathered longer and harsher waves
of terrorism. Israeli leaders must keep things in proportion, and reject
calls for “massive retaliation” that will not truly improve security and
could make things worse.

The security situation is complex. Israel’s decision to outlaw the Islamic
Movement's Northern Branch may have been unavoidable, but the surge in
Palestinian violence cannot be used as an excuse to promote legislation
targeting Israeli Arabs or infringing on their rights, directly or
indirectly. Such measures will do more harm than good, especially in the
long run.

Tempers are running high these days, but if anything this is when we should
make a point of seeing the glass as half full.

Israel is home to 1.7 million Arab citizens, and we should always keep in
mind the astonishing fact that only a handful of them have taken part in
recent violent incidents. After two months of rising terrorism, Israeli
Arabs have remained removed from the cycle of violence. Some may sympathize
with the terrorists, and some may subscribe to the incitement spread by the
Islamic Movement's Northern Branch, but Israeli Arabs have not taken part in
the murder of Israelis. We must examine what can be done to build up this
positive trend of restraint by Israeli Arabs.

Nevertheless, the overall security situation is very frustrating. Every
terrorist attack brings the same question with growing urgency: What can be
done to quell terror and restore the public's sense of safety?

We see no shortage of grandiose statements on this subject, with suggestions
that the IDF launch “a massive military campaign" and "seize Judea and
Samaria." These are nothing but empty words. There is no need for a massive
military campaign, as Operation Defensive Shield in 2002 established the
IDF's control over Judea and Samaria, and Israeli forces are free to operate
anywhere in the area.

If there is intelligence of a weapons' cache in the heart of Nablus, for
example, the IDF can deploy troops within a day. The same goes for executing
demolition orders on terrorists' homes. And soldiers pursuing a suspect can
chase him wherever they must, even into a Palestinian hospital.

The suggestion of a door-to-door search for suspects in Hebron, home to the
majority of terrorists involved in the recent knifing and ramming attacks,
is also futile. What are the soldiers supposed to look for – kitchen knives?
Over 90% of the attacks were carried out using weapons of opportunity, from
screwdrivers to axes. Only a handful of attacks have involved firearms.

The IDF is already free to act on any intelligence or suspicion as needed,
and the defense establishment clearly thinks that surrounding Hebron is a
waste of resources, and that it would only aggravate friction with civilians
who are, for the most part, innocent.

Tense times like these breed a tendency to infringe on the rights of the
minority from which the terrorists emerge. We have seen how even the leaders
of the most enlightened countries – the same ones who preach to Israel about
tolerance and leniency – sideline all semblances of tolerance when they are
hit close to home.

Israel should refrain from imposing harsh and unnecessary measures on the
Palestinians, such as revoking work permits from Palestinians across Judea
and Samaria. This measure would affect the livelihoods of thousands of
families, when so far it is only one terrorist who abused his work permit to
carry out an attack.

Exercising such measures could result in increasing the number of
Palestinians who, feeling they have nothing to lose, might turn to
terrorism. Harsh punishments should be imposed wisely if they are to
generate deterrence.

The truth should also be voiced clearly. Little can be done to prevent lone
terrorists from carrying out their plans, especially when their motives are
no longer clear. Many of the attacks recently have been "atmosphere
attacks," resulting from a killing trend fueled by the Palestinian
Authority's incitement. The PA seems to be the main component in promoting
murder as a "hobby" among the Palestinians, but most attacks have not been
directed by a known terrorist group.

While swift action and the better screening of suspects are vital to fight
the violence, these two measures alone cannot quash it. Acts of terror are
growing in popularity on a global scale, and the Palestinian trend is
inspired by international events.

The wave of terrorism is likely to continue until it proves itself useless;
something that brings only grief to the perpetrators and their families.
This is why Israel cannot offer any gestures to the Palestinians. Israel
must make it clear that this prolonged violence will yield nothing.

There is also a need to avoid unnecessary panic. Rhetoric suggesting these
attacks pose an "existential threat" to Israel is oblivious to reality and
sidelines history in favor of hysteria.

No one can dispute that recent weeks have been stressful for the Israeli
public, especially in Judea and Samaria, where residents come in greater
daily contact with their Palestinian neighbors, which in some cases makes it
easier for terrorists to carry out their vile plans. But the situation is
far from posing an "existential threat." Israel has weathered longer and
harsher waves of terrorism, and they did not pose such a threat. Neither did
Israel's wars.

While there is no doubt that Israel is facing a difficult situation, the
nation will continue to thrive. I believe the economy will grow, as will the
number of Israelis living in Judea and Samaria and the number of Jews
immigrating to Israel. The surge in violence does not pose an "existential
threat." But it does call for keeping things in proportion.
========================
Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror is the Greg and Anne Rosshandler Senior
Fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and former national
security advisor to the Prime Minister. He is also a fellow at JINSA's
Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy.

BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the
Greg Rosshandler Family.

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