Putin's vision is much more global than the conflict in Syria"
With all due respect to America and Europe, the dominant player in the
Middle East today is Russia. More specifically, the most important figure is
the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin. What's going on inside Putin's
head? Amir Rapaport's column
Amir Rapaport | 27/11/2015
http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/putins-vision-much-more-global-conflict-syria

With half-attention, the Israeli defense establishment has followed the
developments in the Sinai this week, where the Egyptian army wages war
against the Islamic State organization, after the downing of the Russian
aircraft taking off from Sharm el-Sheikh.

Also the pressure exerted by ISIS, from Iraq to the borders of Jordan, is
very disturbing to Israel. If the kingdom will fall, ISIS will arrive to
Jordan's long border with Israel, from Eilat to the Golan Heights, but this
horror scenario is still considered far.

Now, the main battlefield is in Syria, where the downing of the Russian
Sukhoi jet on Tuesday by a Turkish fighter jet (which was probably equipped
with Israeli technology, which was sold to Turkey during the flowering of
relations between the countries) was seen as a surprise.

The downing of the jet could have immediate impact on Israel: It will be the
catalyst for bringing to the region advanced Russian systems, including
possibly an S-300 missile defense system, which will reduce IDF's air
superiority in the region, sooner or later. The IAF cannot continue to take
to the air without having to consider the growing Russian presence in Syrian
territory. By the way, the Russians plan to sell Iran the S-300 system, with
an Iranian promise that it will not get into the hands of Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, the bombings by US and European planes, mainly France, of ISIS
targets in Syria and Iraq, are expected to increase following the attacks in
Paris, particularly by attacking tankers and gas production facilities, to
eliminate the sources of economic income of the Islamic State.

But with all due respect to America and Europe, the dominant player in the
Middle East today is Russia, which sends more ships and more aircraft to
Syria. More specifically, the most important figure is the president of
Russia, Vladimir Putin.

By the way things looked this week, the Russians will increase the fighting
in Syria. The entanglement with Turkey occurred because of their relentless
bombings of villages near the Turkish-Syrian border. The bombings only prove
that Russia is not focusing its attacks on ISIS, as it declares, but is
working systematically to remove the military pressure of various rebel
groups off Bashar al-Assad, on the way for a new political solution in
Syria. Europe has an enormous interest in obtaining some sort of solution;
bring an end to the civil war in Syria, hoping to stem the tide of refugees
flooding the continent.

Inside Putin's Head

What goes through the head of Vladimir Putin? One of the greatest experts
for Russia in Israel is Yakov (Yasha) Kedmi, the head of the "Nativ"
organization that associate with Soviet Jews. According to Kedmi, "(both)
the West and Israel are completely wrong understanding of Putin's mind."

Kedmi further says that "Putin's vision is much more global than the
conflict in Syria. The conflict there is merely a demonstration of the huge
military moves that Russia has made in recent years, including the launching
of cruise missiles off small ships in the Caspian Sea and huge investments
in intercontinental missiles and even in tanks equipped with active
protection systems.

"In recent years the Russians have started thinking that the United States
is working to bring about a regime change in China and Russia and weaken
China economically. From their perspective, the Americans fear that Russia
and China would undermine their global supremacy, and Putin has changed the
Russian strategy. The first move of his was to restrain the American
influence through the war in Georgia, then the decision he made that NATO
will not progress further east from Poland, and he also went out on a
campaign against Ukraine.

"All the moves are intertwined. In fact, since 2013, Russia is (taking part
in) a massive arms race, and is following with great interest after American
moves to place thermo-nuclear missiles in Europe.

"The Russians have devoted great effort to develop a response to American
supremacy. At sea, for example, they built new submarines and strategic
missiles. Last year, Russia exported more planes than the US.

"This year, they are producing 240 aircraft, airplanes and helicopters.
Russia has decided to answer the supremacy of the US by the year 2018 and is
continuing with its plan. Therefore, the developments in Syria are part of a
very broad global picture. The Russians have even developed missile defense
systems. The Americans were amazed to discover that they do not leg behind
them in any area. The Russians are about to introduce a missile that can go
up to 11 thousand miles per hour, has unlimited range, and can be launched
from anywhere.

"Now, the Russian strategy is to make it clear to the Americans that in any
future entanglement in Europe, their response will be in Los Angeles and
Chicago. The Cold War is literality back."

Still, how does this relates to what is happening in Syria?

"The new Russian military capability in terms of aircraft has reached
maturity. They also insist on having their ports off the shores of Syria,
and they utilize the US incompetence and the fact that the surge of refugees
in Europe has created an expectation in many countries that Russia will be
put things back into order. They reached an assessment that in the current
reality, the Americans will accept any solution they impose on Syria.
Apparently, their assessment was justified, but it is impossible to
understand what drives Putin in Syria without knowing the big picture."