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Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Excerpts: Veteran politician Fabius bows out. Aleppo under siege February 10, 2016

Excerpts: Veteran politician Fabius bows out. Aleppo under siege February
10, 2016

+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 10 Feb,’16 :”Veteran French Politician Fabius
Bows Out”, By Agence France Presse
SUBJECT: Veteran politician Fabius bows out

FULL TEXT:Veteran French politician Laurent Fabius bowed out of government
Wednesday[10 Feb] after a career spanning more than three decades that saw
an early string of scandals but ended with his shepherding a complex climate
deal as foreign minister.

Fabius holds the distinction of being France's youngest ever prime minister,
a post he took up at 37, and has remained a Socialist heavyweight, ending
his career in the ornate hallways of the Quai d'Orsay as his country's top
diplomat.

Amiable and sometimes witty in person, the cerebral 69-year-old also has a
reputation for being aloof.

Nevertheless, his experience made him a popular foreign minister with the
French people, who largely saw him as a fitting representative abroad.

On Wednesday[10 Feb], President Francois Hollande nominated Fabius to head
France's prestigious Constitutional Court, a post the outgoing foreign
minister told reporters he would take up in March "if things go as planned".

Segolene Royal, the high-profile environment minister and ex-partner of
President Francois Hollande, is among the rumored successors, but former
prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is also believed to be in the frame.

As foreign minister since 2012, Fabius helped to negotiate the Iran nuclear
deal, as well as dealing with the thorny dossiers of the Syria conflict, and
the growing threat of jihadism in western Africa, where French troops are
deployed.

Journalists became accustomed to his pithy expressions. Whether discussing
the Islamic State group or Nigeria's Boko Haram, he would often repeat:
"They are fake believers, but true criminals."

However, it is Fabius's final big project that is likely to shape his
legacy: sealing a historic deal to save mankind from global warning.

As host of the global climate talks at the end of 2015, he presided over 13
days of grueling talks to get 195 nations to agree on transforming the
energy system underlying the world economy.

While fending off rumors of ill health -- and a persistent suggestion that
he suffered from Parkinson's -- Fabius threw himself into the complex world
of climate science and politics for two years preceding the talks.

He made 12 trips to China, four each to India and Saudi Arabia, and also
went to Brazil and South Africa to get them on board and listen to their
concerns.

Fabius, who comes from a long line of art merchants, is independently
wealthy, and his status as the richest of the Socialist ministers has been
seen as off-putting to the rank and file.

Haughty, highly pedigreed and clad in classic suits -- Hermes, according to
one local report -- he has often been labeled a member of the "gauche
caviar", the French term for a champagne Socialist.

Fabius followed the well-worn path to political power in France: graduating
from the elite Ecole Normale Superieure and attending the National School of
Public Administration (ENA).

A political wunderkind, he became a lawmaker aged 32. Then-president
Francois Mitterrand appointed him as budget minister three years later and
then sent him to the ministry of industry and research.

In 1984, he became France's youngest-ever prime minister.

However, Fabius would quickly face a major scandal, when French agents were
caught after the sinking of the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior in New
Zealand as it was on its way to protest against a French nuclear test.

After initial government denials, Fabius later told journalists the French
secret service was indeed behind the bombing, adding: "The truth of this
affair is cruel."

However the biggest stain on his career was a scandal in the late 1980s in
which blood infected with HIV was distributed in France, and later abroad,
even after government became aware of the problem.

Hundreds were infected, and Fabius was charged with manslaughter, but
acquitted in 1999. His health minister was convicted but never punished.

In more recent times, it is his 34-year-old son Thomas who has caused Fabius
the most embarrassment.

Thomas Fabius has faced a raft of legal problems over his passion for
gambling and is wanted in the United States for allegedly writing rubber
cheques for millions of dollars at several Las Vegas casinos. He has also
been charged with forgery in France.


+++SOURCE:Jordan Times 10 Feb.’16:”Aleppo siege spells doom for West’s goals
in Syria ---analysts”, by Agence France Presse

SUBJECT:Aleppo under siege

FULL TEXT:PARIS — The siege of Aleppo has taken the West even further from
achieving its key goals in Syria of stemming the refugee flow, removing the
Assad regime and tackling the Daesh terror group, experts say.

As the joint forces of Russia, Iran, Hizbollah and Syria encircle the
divided northern Syrian city, the so-called "moderate" opposition faces a
potentially devastating turning point in its five-year war against the
regime of President Bashar Assad.

The collapse of the "moderate" opposition would have serious knock-on
effects for the West.

"The civil war is feeding a horrific humanitarian crisis with obvious
significance for the twin Western concerns of refugees and extremism," said
Julien Barnes-Dacey of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The United Nations says more than 30,000 people have fled Aleppo in just a
few days as the fighting intensifies, and officials are warning that Europe
could see migrant numbers that eclipse even the record figures of the past
year.

"The worst-case scenario that could happen in this region in the short term
would be a new influx of 600,000 refugees at the Turkish frontier," Turkish
Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus warned on Monday.

Assad's main international backers — Russia and Iran — argue that the Syrian
leader is the best hope for ending the war — a view that is gaining some
currency in Western capitals despite them seeing Assad as responsible for
most of the quarter million dead in the conflict.

"There is not the same sense of urgency or moral impulse to get rid of
Assad," said Barnes-Dacey.

"But Assad can't win this war outright. No one realistically believes he can
stabilise the country and deal with both extremism and refugees," he said.

'Rampant wishful thinking'

The onslaught on Aleppo led to the collapse last week of the first peace
talks between the regime and opposition in Geneva, but Washington sees
little alternative but to keep the negotiation process going.

The United States is unwilling to throw full military support behind the
rebels — fearful of becoming mired in an indirect conflict with Russia.

Instead, analysts say the White House is still hoping Moscow and Damascus
will get tired of fighting and seek a settlement.

"Wishful thinking has been rampant in Washington," said Hassan Hassan, of
the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington.

"The West is banking on the political process, on the idea that the regime
campaign will get to a stalemate and will eventually accept concessions.
They think the bombardment of Aleppo is just part of the negotiation.

"But they are being played by the regime and Russia. The regime is seeking
total victory and wants to get to a point where it doesn't need to
negotiate. That's the only doctrine the regime believes in."

Boon or bust for Daesh?

While it will generate still more humanitarian disasters and a fresh exodus
of refugees, analysts say the fall of Aleppo will not directly impact the
West's primary concern: the war against Daesh, which has become practically
a separate conflict in eastern Syria.

"If Aleppo falls, it would be a big symbolic victory for the Syrian
government over the Sunni insurgency," said Columb Strack, senior Middle
East analyst for IHS in London.

"But the Western strategy [against Daesh] shifted away from backing the
Sunni insurgency in the middle of last year... It just wasn't working,"
Strack said.

In October, the US formally abandoned its $500 million (450-million-euro)
plan to train a moderate Sunni force to fight Daesh after a series of
embarrassing setbacks that saw some of the first recruits simply hand over
their weapons to extremists.

Washington and its Western allies are now putting their hopes in Kurdish
fighters, hoping they will act as ground forces against the extremist group.

Experts are divided on whether the current trends of the conflict will help
or hinder Daesh.

Some fear the decline of the moderate opposition will force many into the
arms of Daesh.

"The Russian plan is to get to a place where Assad is left alone against the
Islamic State [Daesh]," said Agnes Levallois, a Middle East consultant in
Paris.

"But that will create a scenario where the Islamic State can present itself
as the great and only defender of the Sunni community against the Syrian
regime."

Other analysts agree that extremist groups will take advantage of losses by
more moderate forces, but point out that Daesh is currently under
considerable pressure in key areas.

"Overall the current trends look bad for the Islamic State — you've got
US-backed Kurdish forces and Russian-backed Syrian forces competing for the
territory held by the Islamic State along the Turkish border," said Strack.

===
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA

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