Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East
Efraim Inbar - BESA
http://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/MSPS122.pdf

Executive Summary

The United States is retreating from the Middle East. The adverse
implications of this policy shift are manifold, including: the acceleration
of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional
nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and
Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also
bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East, as global players
question the value of partnership with an irresolute Washington.

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Conclusions

Washington is retrenching. It is projecting weakness and eliciting doubts
about its value as an ally. The US has the potential to snap back under
different leadership, but this could take time. Building military assets is
a lengthy process, particularly when it comes to training qualified military
forces. Overcoming mistrust is perhaps more difficult. Certain strategic
losses, such as foreign policy reorientation by former allies, are not
easily reversible.

US allies in the Middle East believe Washington needs a different lens
through which to view international affairs.

It needs a clear conceptual framework by which to identify friends and foes.
This is a basic mechanism for any military activity and has to be deployed
also within the politico-strategic sphere. As Samuel Johnson observed,
though there is twilight, there is still light and darkness. Strategic
clarity is vital for astute policy-making.

Washington’s reluctance to deploy ground forces is understandable, and such
military involvement is not always useful. Conserving blood and treasure,
rather than expending them to pursue ambitious political schemes, is a good
instinct. But Obama-style disengagement has produced harmful outcomes for
the US and its allies. While the Middle East seems to have become gradually
less important in the international arena, it is still very relevant with
respect to several global challenges: Islamic radicalism, nuclear
proliferation, and energy security. These issues cannot be ignored. For the
time being, there is no alternative to a responsible and well-calibrated US
role in world affairs. An assertive US position is also
important for spreading the values for which it stands – democracy and the
free market. Abdicating this role is simply irresponsible.