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Sunday, October 16, 2016
Peace Index Poll: More Israeli Arabs(40.3%) think situation very good in Israel than do Israeli Jews (9.7%)

Peace Index Poll: More Israeli Arabs(40.3%) think situation very good in
Israel than do Israeli Jews (9.7%)
The Peace Index – October 2016
(N=600, 500 Jews, 100 Arabs)
5-9/10/2016
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=309
1: What is your position on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Strongly in favor 26.4/67.4/33.3
Moderately in favor 32.7/13.1/29.4
Moderately opposed 20.8/7.3/18.5
Strongly opposed 15.0/8.3/13.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.1/4.0/4.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

2: Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Strongly believe 6.7/32.8/11.0
Moderately believe 18.7/15.8/18.2
Moderately do not believe 33.2/5.9/28.6
Do not believe at all 37.8/41.7/38.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.7/3.8/3.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

3: In your opinion, what is Israel’s overall situation today?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Very good 9.7/40.3/14.8
Moderately good 34.0/22.7/32.1
Medium 36.8/15.8/33.3
Moderately poor 13.1/8.0/12.3
Very poor 5.8/8.5/6.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 0.6/4.8/1.3
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

4: In your assessment, what will be Israel’s overall situation in the new
year that is now beginning?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Much better than last year 7.5/32.9/11.7
A little better than last year 15.0/21.5/16.1
About like last year 55.9/30.0/51.5
A little worse than last year 13.3/2.5/11.5
Much worse than last year 3.0/2.5/3.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.3/10.7/6.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

And in each of the following domains separately, will Israel’s situation in
the year that is now beginning be:

5: In the military-security domain:
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Better 27.4/39.9/29.5
About the same 56.7/39.0/53.8
Worse 11.6/6.2/10.7
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.2/14.9/6.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

6. In the socioeconomic domain:
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Better 19.5/42.6/23.4
About the same 46.7/45.8/46.6
Worse 29.5/2.8/25.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.3/8.8/5.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

7. In the political-diplomatic domain:
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Better 14.3/42.3/19.0
About the same 54.6/35.5/51.4
Worse 24.2/9.1/21.7
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.9/13.1/7.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

8. In the domain of disputes between different parts of the public:
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Better 10.2/31.6/13.7
About the same 53.9/43.7/52.2
Worse 32.4/13.2/29.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.5/11.5/4.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

9: At the funeral of the late president Shimon Peres, his two sons and his
daughter recited the Kaddish prayer for him. In your opinion, was is
appropriate or inappropriate that Peres’s daughter, too, said Kaddish for
him even though according to Orthodox religious practice women do not say
Kaddish for a parent who has died?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure it’s appropriate that the daughter also said Kaddish for him
38.7/9.4/33.8
I think it’s appropriate 20.5/20.1/20.5
I think it’s inappropriate 13.9/14.4/14.0
I’m sure it’s inappropriate that the daughter also said Kaddish for him
20.7/34.7/23.1
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.2/21.4/8.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

10: Some claim that the participation of many world leaders in Peres’s
funeral was only in honor of the memory of the man because of his efforts to
promote peace. Others claim that this large participation was also a sign of
Israel’s good international standing. With which claim do you agree more?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
That the participation was only in honor of the man because of his efforts
to promote peace 76.6/32.1/69.1
That the large participation was also a sign of Israel’s good international
standing 18.1/48.7/23.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.4/19.2/7.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

11: In your opinion, was the participation in Peres’s funeral by the head of
the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), despite the harsh
criticism leveled at him by some elements on the Palestinian side, a sign of
a Palestinian desire to return to negotiations with Israel?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure it was 5.8/42.1/11.9
I think it was 25.6/14.4/23.7
I think it wasn’t 38.3/8.2/33.3
I’m sure it wasn’t 25.7/24.9/25.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.6/10.4/5.6
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

12: At the ceremony for Peres’s funeral, Netanyahu in his speech did not
mention the presence of Abbas, who was the only Arab leader who came to the
funeral. In your opinion, should or should not Netanyahu have referred in
the speech to the presence of the head of the Palestinian Authority?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure he should have 19.1/34.6/21.7
I think he should have 30.2/16.1/27.8
I think he should not have 21.3/7.0/18.9
I’m sure he should not have 24.7/28.4/25.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.8/13.9/6.3
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

13: In your opinion, is it desirable or undesirable for Israel to renew the
talks on a peace agreement with the Palestinians?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure it’s desirable 28.2/52.6/32.3
I think it’s desirable 37.6/19.1/34.5
I think it’s undesirable 17.5/0.9/14.7
I’m sure it’s undesirable 13.6/20.5/14.8
Don’t know 3.1/6.9/3.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

14: The heads of the Joint Arab List declined to participate in Peres’s
funeral on the claim that he was a security-minded leader who supported the
occupation. Whether or not you think that is true from the Israeli Arabs’
standpoint
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Very unwise 58.8/31.2/54.2
Moderately unwise 22.3/17.9/21.6
Moderately wise 9.0/2.4/7.9
Very wise 2.9/36.5/8.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.0/12.0/7.8
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

15: And was the avoidance of Peres’s funeral by the heads of the Joint Arab
List, on the claim that he was a security-minded leader who supported the
occupation, justified or unjustified from the basic standpoint of the Arab
public in Israel?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Very justified 1.9/30.0/6.6
Moderately justified 12.8/11.3/12.5
Not so justified 25.3/9.8/22.7
Not justified at all 52.2/32.7/49.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.7/16.2/9.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

16: Soon it will be 30 years since the capture and disappearance of air
force navigator Ron Arad. From what you know, did the different Israeli
governments do enough or not enough to find out what happened to him and
perhaps thereby bring him back?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure they did enough 11.6/27.0/14.2
I think they did enough 22.0/12.4/20.4
I think they didn’t do enough 33.3/5.3/28.6
I’m sure they didn’t do enough 19.3/29.5/21.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.8/25.9/15.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

17: In your opinion, should or should not Israel, in principle, release a
substantial number of Palestinian prisoners for the return of the bodies of
IDF soldiers?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure it should not 35.9/9.8/31.5
I think it should not 31.9/2.6/27.0
I think it should 16.4/12.6/15.8
I’m sure it should 5.0/47.1/12.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.8/27.9/13.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

18: And what about releasing a substantial number of Palestinian prisoners
for the release of live soldiers who are in captivity?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure it should not 14.0/4.9/12.5
I think it should not 18.7/1.4/15.8
I think it should 33.3/8.3/29.1
I’m sure it should 24.2/56.5/29.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 9.8/28.9/13.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

19: And what about releasing a substantial number of Palestinian prisoners
for the release of Israeli citizens who crossed the border intentionally or
by mistake and were taken prisoner?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
I’m sure it should not 27.3/4.6/23.5
I think it should not 29.0/3.0/24.7
I think it should 24.8/8.3/22.0
I’m sure it should 7.2/53.9/15.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 11.7/30.2/14.8
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

20: Who, in your opinion, will be elected U.S. president—Hillary Clinton or
Donald Trump?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Clinton 55.4/56.6/55.6
Trump 25.0/21.0/24.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 19.5/22.4/20.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

21: And which candidate’s election is preferable from Israel’s standpoint?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Clinton 41.9/41.3/41.8
Trump 26.5/10.7/23.9
Both of them are the same (do not read) 9.7/27.5/12.7
Neither of them (do not read) 4.9/3.2/4.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 16.9/17.3/17.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

22: Between the two U.S. presidential candidates, who will more heavily
pressure the Israeli government to renew negotiations with the Palestinians
if elected?
Jews % /Arabs % /General Public %
Clinton 62.7/30.1/57.2
Trump 7.6/5.5/7.2
Both of them are the same 11.4/12.5/11.6
Neither of them 3.1/34.0/8.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.3/17.9/15.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

The Peace Index: October 2016

Date Published: 15/10/2016

Survey dates: 05/10/2016 - 09/10/2016

At the outset of the new year, we looked into how the public views Israel’s
overall situation at present and what it expects its situation to be in
various domains during the year that is now beginning. And in hindsight, we
explored the public’s positions on different aspects of the state funeral of
the late president Shimon Peres, the most notable national event of the past
month. This time we also looked into a question that repeatedly comes up in
different circumstances: the price, in terms of releasing Palestinian
prisoners from Israeli jails, that Israel should (or should not) pay for the
release of Israelis held captive, whether they are alive or after their
death. Finally, as in the previous months, we gauged the public’s positions
on the chances of the two U.S. presidential candidates, Clinton and Trump,
and on their preferability from Israel’s standpoint.

Israel’s situation at present and the forecast for the new year: The
prevailing opinion in the Jewish public (44%) is that Israel’s overall
situation at present is moderately good (34%) or very good (10%).
Thirty-seven percent see its situation as medium, while only 19% regard it
as moderately poor (13%) or very poor (6%). That is, the prevailing view
today in the Jewish public as a whole is that Israel’s situation is much
more positive than negative. However, a segmentation of the responses by
political camps reveals that on the right, the highest rate (about half)
define the situation as very good or good, whereas in the center and on the
left the prevailing position is that the situation is medium (42% and 38%
respectively). A segmentation by religiosity shows that while in the three
religious groups (haredi, national-religious, and traditional religious) a
majority of about 58% assesses the situation positively, among the
nonreligious traditional this rate comes to 43%, while among the secular
only about a third (32%) see the situation today as very good or good. It
should be noted that these two findings accord with those of surveys
conducted earlier this year, a validation that is especially important in
light of the prevailing opinion in the media discourse, and also in the
discourse among different professional circles, that Israel’s situation is
not great. That is, the public assesses the situation more positively than
various credentialed observers. As for the prognosis for the coming year,
the majority of the Jewish public as a whole expects the situation to remain
as it is. In the Arab public the most common view is that the situation will
improve.

When it comes to assessing the future situation in different
domains—military-security, socioeconomic, political-diplomatic, and the
domain of disputes between different parts of the public—the prevailing
opinion in the Jewish public regarding all of them is that the situation
will remain as it was last year. At the same time, while regarding the
military domain a higher rate (27%) think the situation will improve and
only 12% think it will worsen, when it comes to the rest of the domains the
rate assessing that the situation will worsen exceeds the rate who think it
will improve. The proportion of pessimists is especially high regarding the
domain of disputes between different parts of the public: worsen—32%,
improve—10%. Assessments among the Arab interviewees were more positive: a
plurality responded that the situation in all the domains is likely to
improve or remain as it was.

The funeral of the late president Shimon Peres: There is broad agreement in
the Jewish public (77%) that the large participation of world leaders in
this funeral was only in honor of the man because of his efforts to promote
peace and not a manifestation of Israel’s good international standing (18%).
Arab interviewees had the opposite opinion: the higher rate (49%) thought
that the large participation of leaders from abroad reflected Israel’s good
standing in the international community.

As for the participation in the funeral by the head of the Palestinian
Authority, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), notwithstanding the harsh criticism
leveled at him by some elements on the Palestinian side, about a third of
the Jewish public interpreted his participation as a sign of the Palestinian
desire to return to the negotiating table. However, the majority (64%)
thought otherwise. Among the Arab interviewees the picture is the opposite:
56.5% think his participation in the funeral, despite the domestic
criticism, reflects the Palestinians’ desire to renew the negotiations.

In the same context we asked whether, in his speech at the ceremony for the
funeral, Netanyahu should or should not have referred to the presence of the
head of the Palestinian Authority. The answers indicate that the Jewish
public is almost evenly split on this question, though the rate of those who
think he should have specifically referred to Abbas (49%) is slightly higher
than the rate of those who think he should not have (46%). In the Arab
public the picture is similar: the majority (51%) thinks it would have been
appropriate for Netanyahu to refer in his funeral oration to Abbas’s
presence.

The heads of the Joint Arab List declined to participate in Peres’s funeral
on the grounds that he was a security-minded leader who supported the
occupation, and we asked whether this avoidance was politically wise or
unwise. The Jewish public’s position on this question is unequivocal: 81%
think the abstention was unwise. Similarly, 77.5% of the Jewish public says
the Joint List leaders’ avoidance of participating in the funeral was also
unjustified from the basic standpoint of the Israeli Arab public. Although
at a much lower rate, the prevailing position (49%) among the Arab
interviewees as well was that the abstention was an unwise political move.
Many (42.5%) also thought it had no basic justification.

In the ceremony for Peres’s funeral his three children—his two sons and his
daughter—said the Kaddish prayer for him. We asked: “In your opinion, was it
appropriate or inappropriate that Peres’s daughter, too, said Kaddish for
him even though according to Orthodox religious practice women do not say
Kaddish for a parent who has died?” The answers indicate that the majority
of the Jewish public (59%) thinks it was appropriate that the deceased’s
daughter as well said Kaddish for him, despite the fact that this deviates
from Orthodox practice. At the same time, a segmentation of the responses by
self-definition of religiosity shows that only among the secular is there a
clear majority who think the act was appropriate (85%). Among the religious
and the nonreligious traditional only about half see it positively, while
among the traditional religious and the haredi only a small minority accept
such an action (29.5% and 18% respectively).

Releasing Palestinian prisoners for Israeli captives: Every few years the
question again arises as to what price, in the coin of releasing Palestinian
prisoners from Israeli jails, Israel should or should not pay for the
release of Israelis held captive by the enemy. It turns out that the Jewish
public clearly distinguishes between different situations in which Israel
faces that question. When it comes to the freeing of live soldiers who are
in captivity, a clear majority (57.5%) supports their release in return for
Palestinian prisoners. However, when the exchange involves the return of
bodies of IDF soldiers, the pattern of responses is the opposite: 68% think
prisoners should not be released. We obtained similar responses, though with
a smaller disparity, regarding the freeing of Israeli civilians who have
crossed the border intentionally or by mistake and been taken captive: 56%
of the Jewish public opposes releasing Palestinian prisoners for the return
to Israel of civilian captives.

Clinton or Trump? At this time a clear majority (55%) of the Jewish public
holds the opinion that Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. presidential
elections, while only 25% believe that Donald Trump will be elected (note
that the survey was conducted before the publication of the “hot-mic tape”).
With a smaller but still considerable disparity, a majority of the public
(42%) thinks that from Israel’s standpoint it is preferable for Clinton to
be elected, while 26.5% see it as preferable for Trump to be elected. At the
same time, an overwhelming majority (63% vs. 8%) assesses that if Clinton is
elected she will exert heavier pressure on the Israeli government to renew
the negotiations with the Palestinians. Among the Arab interviewees the
picture is very similar: 57% anticipated that Clinton would be elected, 41%
saw her as preferable from Israel’s standpoint, but only 30% thought she
would exert stronger pressure on Israel regarding the conflict with the
Palestinians. The highest rate (34%) of the Arab interviewees assessed that
neither of the two candidates for the U.S. presidency will exert pressure on
Israel to return to the negotiating table.


The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Public Opinion
and Policy Research of the Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey
was conducted by telephone on October 5-9, 2016, by the Midgam Research
Institute. The survey included 600 respondents, who constitute a
representative national sample of the adult population aged 18 and over. The
maximum measurement error for the entire sample is ±4.1% at a confidence
level of 95%. Statistical processing was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.

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