December 5, 2016 Inquiry & Analysis Series No.1285
Egyptian Economic Crisis Leads To Increased Calls To Reduce The Country's
Birthrate
By: C. Meital and H. Varulkar*
http://www.memri.org/reports/egyptian-economic-crisis-leads-increased-calls-reduce-countrys-birthrate

Introduction

Egypt's population is currently some 91 million, and its growth rate over
the past two decades, which stands at 48% (2.4% per year), is among the
world's highest.[1] This issue has been troubling Egyptian government
officials for decades, and in 1975 they established the National Population
Council, one of whose main tasks is to work to achieve a balanced population
growth rate.[2]

This issue has recently become the focus of public debate again in Egypt due
to the severe economic crisis afflicting the country.[3] For example, Abu
Bakr Al-Gendy, the head of Egypt's Central Agency for Public Mobilization
and Statistics (CAPMAS), said that "the problem of Egypt's population growth
rate is of supreme importance and tops the list of problems afflicting the
country." He even warned that this problem was worse than the threat of
terrorism and economic slowdown,[4] adding that "Egypt's high population
growth rates have exceeded all limits and passed those of all countries
suffering from similar economic conditions." According to him, "every year,
2.7 million [babies] are born in Egypt, compared to half a million who
die."[5] He added that Egypt's population growth rate is five times that of
China's.[6]

In light of this data, Egyptian officials – including President Al-Sisi, the
prime minister, health ministry officials, and even religious institution
leaders – warned that the rapid population growth bodes ill for Egyptian
society and economy, and cements poverty, illiteracy, and unemployment, and
called to reduce birthrates. Similar calls were also made by Egyptian media
figures, who warned of the dire consequences of the phenomenon.

Conversely, there were also some journalists who saw Egypt's large
population as an asset that the state should and must utilize to its
benefit.

This report will review statements by officials as well as press articles on
the topic:

Egyptian Officials: Rapid Population Growth Rate Is Worrying, Affects
National Security

As said, on the backdrop of the severe economic crisis and rapid population
growth rate, many high-ranking Egyptian officials, including President 'Abd
Al-Fattah Al-Sisi and Prime Minister Sherif Isma'il, called to reduce the
country's birthrate.

President Al-Sisi: Three Children Are Enough; The Greatest Danger To Egypt
Is Population Growth

Back in February 2015, at a cultural conference attended by hundreds of
journalists, media personnel, and party leaders, President Al-Sisi addressed
the need to reduce the population growth rate. He posed the following
question to the Sheikh of Al-Azhar, Ahmed Al-Tayeb, who was in the audience:
"May I ask [Egyptians] who have one child to wait three or four years before
having their second? May I ask those who have two children to wait six or
seven years before having their third? May I ask those who already have
three children to avoid having more?" Al-Tayeb responded that this was
permissible according to Islamic law, and Al-Sisi explained that this was
crucial to creating a strong and educated nation.[7]



In a September 21, 2016 interview to CNN, on the margins of the UN General
Assembly in New York, Al-Sisi addressed the population growth rate crisis in
Egypt, saying: "The [birth] rate is growing at an annual rate of 2.5%. At
the start of this year, there were 90 million Egyptians, and last month
there were already 91 million. This population requires education,
healthcare, job opportunities, housing, and food..."[8] Al-Sisi addressed
the topic once again in an interview with editors of Egypt's official
newspapers on October 15, 2016, saying that population growth was the
greatest danger facing Egypt. He added: "If we do not halt the [population]
growth rate, then development efforts will be wasted. We must reach an
[economic] growth rate of over 75% per year in order for people to sense an
improvement."[9]

Prime Minister Presents Strategic Plan To Reduce Birthrate: Limiting
Families To Two Children

Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif Isma'il also addressed the need to reduce the
birthrate. In a speech delivered on Egypt National Day, Isma'il announced a
new national strategy to reduce the birthrate in coming years. He said: "The
first annual National Day [celebrations] by [Egyptian] residents is a
special event where both leadership and people celebrate and stress the
special importance of the issue of population to the Egyptian government,
[for this] is a national security issue, especially in such a crucial time
in the history of the ummah." According to him, the government formulated a
plan of action that has been approved by parliament, which focuses on the
fact that "one of the most important challenges that the homeland
[currently] faces is the worrisome increase in the number of residents."
According to Isma'il, this plan is based on the fact that countries that
succeeded in improving the lives of their citizens employed strict policies
to substantially reduce population growth rates, which resulted in a
measurable increase in average income and quality of life.

Isma'il also noted that Egypt's population surged from 61.5 million in 1996
to 91 million in June 2016, which constitutes a 48% increase – among the
highest in the world. He added that because of this figure, citizens from
all walks of life do not reap the fruits of development "due to a
discrepancy between the population growth rate and the country's economic
growth rate. This is one of the most important challenges we face."
According to Isma'il, while Egypt's population grows rapidly, "Egypt's quota
of Nile water remains the same, and the total amount arable land has
increased only slightly. Egypt has also increasingly relied on imports to
close the widening gap between local production and the consumption rates of
several staple food products."

Government To Supply Free Birth Control

The prime minister added: "We are all partners in the country and are in
charge of its prosperity and development, and therefore I call on every
Egyptian family to correlate the quality of life it wants to provide to its
members with the appropriate number of children, so that [families] can
enjoy the fruits of their labor." According to him, "indicators show that if
we do not suffice with two children per family, Egypt's population will grow
to 119 million in 2030, which will make it hard for us to fulfill our goals
of reaching desired growth rates and raising the quality of life for
[Egyptian] families, and could even negatively impact [the ability] to meet
the needs of the Egyptian citizen in food and services."

He added: "Since there is a close correlation between the size [of the
population] and its quality [of life]... the call to adopt the concept of a
small family is necessary in order to ensure a better future for coming
generations, so that every family can provide its members with proper care,
and so that the country in turn can provide [citizens] with proper quality
of life." Isma'il also said that "in light of all this, the National
Population Council has formulated a national strategy for the period between
2015 and 2030, with the participation of all relevant ministries and
elements in the country" and that "[the council's] important tasks are:
balancing the population growth and economic growth in the country; raising
the quality of life for citizens...; and implementing a balanced geographic
dispersal of residents and achieving social justice by eliminating gaps
between geographic regions." The prime minister said he had ordered
government ministries and other elements to include in their plans aspects
that address the issue of population growth, and stressed the need for the
media to address these matters s well. In addition, he emphasized the
government's duty to provide free birth control to those who cannot afford
it, and to encourage family planning.[10]

Deputy Minister Of Health And Population: We Will Draft Laws That Will
Reduce Birthrates And Incentivize Smaller Families

Dr. Maissa Shawky, the deputy minister of health and population, made
similar comments to the Egyptian daily Al-Watan. According to her, "there is
no denying that we have an unwelcome increase in the population, which has
become a sort of national security problem since our [population] growth
rate exceeds our economic growth. Therefore, there is no escaping making
decisions that will lead to reduced birthrates." Shawky said that eight
governorates currently require intervention on this matter as a top
priority, such as Cairo Governorate, which has the highest birthrate in the
country.

Shawky revealed that the parliament's National Security Committee has been
debating the drafting of laws to help control the population growth rate,
alongside laws on family and child heath, child labor, and underage
marriage. Asked whether there will be incentives to encourage reduced
birthrates, Shawky replied that the Ministry of Social Solidarity is already
conducting a program in some governorates involving state incentives in the
form of financial aid to poor families with two children or less, and that
there are plans to expand this program to other governorates as well.
According to her, the good news is that the birthrates were down in 2015
compared to 2014; however, she is not yet satisfied by the rate of the
decline and its scope.

Shawky mentioned a one-year program for raising national awareness on this
topic, as part of which every week, the press and TV talk shows will discuss
a different topic related to Egypt's birthrates. She said that there is also
a special authority dedicated to promoting public awareness on the topic and
training journalists to do so.[11]

Other Egyptian officials also addressed the need to reduce birthrates. MP
Kamal 'Amer, head of the Egyptian parliament's National Security Committee,
said that the committee had discussed ways to deal with the problem of
population growth and the need for a comprehensive strategy by all Egyptian
forces to deal with it using positive incentives and with the assistance of
clerics. According to him, it was agreed to provide birth control and raise
citizen awareness, with special focus on the countryside and poor villages.
The committee also made an agreement with Deputy Minister Shawky to submit a
law proposal to address the problem, he said.[12]

Khalaf Al-Zanati, head of the Teachers Syndicate and president of the Arab
Teachers Union, also addressed the topic, saying that the issue requires
collaboration between the government and NGOs. He called to include the
topic in school curricula in order to raise awareness of the dangers and
negative consequences it has on societal progress.[13]

Religious Establishment Supports Birthrate Reduction Policy: Islamic Law
Permits It

In light of the severity of the phenomenon and its implications for the
Egyptian society and economy, the Egyptian religious establishment led by
the Sheikh of Al-Azhar expressed support for the regime's policy to
encourage lower birthrates.

As said, Al-Azhar Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb said at a large conference, in reply
to a question from President Al-Sisi, that Islamic law permits family
planning. Former Egyptian mufti 'Ali Gum'a also warned of the problem of
population growth in August at a groundbreaking ceremony for a project to
construct ten thousand affordable housing units in Upper Egypt. He said:
"Beware population growth, because it will reduce [the country] to
rubble."[14]

The website for Dar Al-Ifta', Egypt's official fatwa-issuing institution,
stated that family planning was permissible and even required by Islamic
law. In response to a query in January 2016 by an Egyptian mother of two who
wrote that she and her husband had decided to postpone having more children
due to economic hardship, the institution responded that a man who does not
plan his family takes on more responsibility than he can handle, which could
harm himself, his wife, and his children. Dar Al-Ifta' also said that "Islam
does not require every Muslim to have a certain number of children, but
rather urges all Muslims to procreate, a call [aimed] at those who can... As
for those who cannot [have many children] due to economic hardship, Islamic
law instructs them to be patient and wise... The point of family planning is
for both parents to agree to use birth control for a certain period of time,
and this in order to limit the size of the family and ensure the parents'
ability to provide their children with the best possible care without
hardship..."[15]

In fact, already in 2003, the center for Islamic research at Al-Azhar
determined that family planning was permitted according to Islamic law and
is not considered fetal murder, since a woman who uses birth control does
not get pregnant. The ruling stated further that family planning means
spacing out pregnancies to preserve the health of the mother so that she can
raise her children, and that this is permitted by Islamic law as there are
no texts that forbid it in the Koran or the Sunnah.[16]

Conferences And Workshops To Raise Awareness For Family Planning

Over the past year, the Ministry of Health has organized informational
conferences and workshops for citizens, especially women, in order to raise
awareness for the concept of family planning in Egyptian society. The events
took place in various governorates such as Al-Dahlia, Al-Mina and Asyut in
the rural areas of Upper Egypt. The workshops also included the distribution
of free birth control, and some meetings were also attended by clerics, who
explained that the practice was permitted in Islam.[17]

Furthermore, in June 2016, the Ministry of Social Solidarity allocated 30
million Egyptian pounds to societies that promote family planning.[18]


Conference on reducing birthrate in Al-Dakahlia (Al-Yawm Al-Sabi', Egypt,
July 19, 2016)


Cleric leads conference in Alexandria titled "The Meaning of Family Planning
in Islam" (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Egypt, March 15, 2016)

Egyptian Journalists Call On Government, Clerics To Act To Reduce Birthrate

Concern about the rapid population growth was also expressed by articles in
the Egyptian press warning of the severe implications it could have for
Egypt and its economy. Many accused the authorities of not doing enough to
address this problem, and others called on the clerics to address the issue
and reform the religious discourse about it. Some even called to learn from
China, which imposed forceful measures to radically reduce the birthrate,
thus managing to improve its economic situation.

Egyptian Columnist: Egypt's Birthrate Thwarts Any Development Efforts

Gamal Zayda, a columnist for the official Egyptian daily Al-Ahram, claimed
that the people and the government ignore the problem of population growth,
which harms any development efforts. He wrote: "It seems that all of us,
both the government and the people and– those who support [the government]
or oppose it – are living in a grand delusion. We are all deluding ourselves
that we can emerge from this bottleneck and achieve [economic] development
without restraining population growth... We grow by more than two million
people a year, and this statistic ensures that any development efforts will
be in vain...

"In the developed industrial countries the population is not growing but
rather shrinking, and the mean age of the population is [therefore] rising,
while we have allowed anyone who wants to have five, six, or seven children
to do so easily, and the plain truth is that this population growth will
devour any development effort."[19]

Egyptian Writer: The Clerics Are To Blame For The Crime Of Bringing Many
Poor Children Into The World

Ibrahim Hejazi, a columnist for the official daily Al-Ahram, claimed that
the construction of new schools, hospitals, and roads will not suffice so
long as the problem of population growth is not properly addressed. He
stressed that the key to this problem, like other problems, lies in renewing
the religious discourse, a process which President Al-Sisi asked clerics to
launch over a year ago.[20] According to him, clerics are the authority
figures that should explain to the people the implications of large
families, which perpetuate the cycle of poverty. He wrote: "Overcrowding in
the classrooms will continue until the end of time so long as this
frightening rate of population growth persists, keeping Egypt and its
citizens from living normal lives. Whenever a school is constructed, the
population growth in the area requires three new ones in addition to the one
already constructed. When we finish [paving] a road to solve some problem,
we are shocked to [discover] it is overcrowded and we need a new road...
This is also true for hospitals and other services. There is no tool that
can help us uproot this problem, since [babies] being born as you read these
lines can fill every school and every hospital and swallow up every last
inch of good land. If you doubt my words, read the report from the Central
Statistics Bureau from July 2016: In 1882, Egypt's population was 6.7
million people... In January 2016, it was 90.1 million.

"These are hard figures, not personal opinions or conclusions. Clearly these
numbers did not cause anyone to lose sleep throughout these years, otherwise
they [the officials] would have acted [to deal with it]! We have allowed the
population growth to become like a wild animal that tramples everything!
Realize that we have tripled our population in only 50 years! In 1966 there
were 30 million of us and in 2016 there are 90 million... China is the most
populated country in the world, [but] Egypt's population growth rate is five
times that of China's!...

"Over a year ago, the president demanded to renew the religious discourse.
Some of us did not realize that renewing the religious discourse was the
solution to all problems, chief of them terrorism. [But] armed terrorism is
[just one] kind of terrorism. Misguided fatwas that divide the homeland [are
also a form of] terrorism, and saying that family planning is forbidden [in
Islam] is the greatest form of terrorism. Yes, it is horrible terrorism
because the ongoing [situation] where a baby is born every second prevents
us from solving any problem in any field – education, healthcare,
development, unemployment, and [civil] services. Why? Because our population
is doubling at an alarming rate. No matter how many factories we build, we
cannot solve the problem of manufacturing or job opportunities; no matter
how many schools we build, we cannot solve the problem of overcrowding; no
matter how many teachers we hire, we cannot deal with the deficit in
quantity and quality [of teachers]; no matter how many roads we pave, we
cannot solve the [traffic] problem.

"The solution to these problems can be found if the religious [discourse] is
renewed, and this is convincingly simple with regards to family planning...
If clerics only explain to the common [people] that, in coming generations,
the Prophet [Muhammad] will be proud of nations that are strong, vigorous,
and educated rather than ignorant, poor, and sick. If they [only] explain
that having many children so that they work from a young age and give the
money to their father means that these children are denied an education,
they are denied a present and are denied a future, for which they are
unprepared. [They have] neither education, profession or employment, and
thus the cycle of poverty continues and expands... The poor give birth to
the poor... when paychecks are meager and sporadic. If [a man] has only two
children, their situation is surely be better than if he has eight... Two
[children] can possibly be kept in school... where they can learn a
profession. But eight children will have no shot at anything...

"Oh, clerics, the crime against these children, and moreover, the crime
against all of Egypt, is on your shoulders."[21]

Egyptian Writer: Impose Sanctions On Families With More Than Three Children,
Incentivize Small Families

Muhammad Al-Herawi, a columnist for the official daily Akhbar Al-Yawm,
criticized the government for not stepping in to halt the rapid population
growth rate by engaging in informational activity or establishing mechanisms
for family planning. He called to incentivize small families and sanction
ones with more than three children. He wrote: "I do not know why the
government is not stepping in to stop the population growth that consumes
all and weakens the state's ability to meet [the challenge of] construction.
The government closed the population ministry and rolled it into the health
ministry; thus, all plans to stop the population growth have failed,
especially among poor families, and there are no campaigns to raise
awareness or for family planning...

"It is not enough that officials say 'we suffer from population growth' and
[then] do nothing [to confront] this problem, which cannot be solved without
constant media campaigns to spread [the concept] of reducing the rate of
population growth, which suffocates any true development efforts...

"We must incentivize a family of up to three children or sanction families
with more than three, especially among the unemployed, the poor, and those
who are responsible for the population growth afflicting the country. We
want strong and skilled generations that protect Egypt, its treasures and
its culture, and work to continue its development."[22]

Columnists Call To Use Egypt's Large Population To Benefit The State

Conversely, some columnists argued that Egypt's large population is an asset
that can be leveraged towards developing various sectors in the country,
such as the economy and the military.

This Wealth Of Human Capital Should Be Utilized To Attain Progress, As Many
Large Countries Have Done

Al-Ahram columnist Nasser Gweida wrote that Egypt should learn from
countries around the world such as India and China that have derived benefit
from their large populations: "The claim that Egypt's population has reached
100 million is stubbornly repeated again and again. Opinions are divided:
there are pessimists who believe that the population growth [rate] will
swallow up the development efforts before anything else... and there are
optimists... who believe that this wealth of manpower puts us in first place
in the region...

"But reality shows that there are large countries such as China, India and
others, whose populations far exceed one billion [each], and have managed to
utilize this human resource to achieve growth and attain leading positions
among the powers of the developed world, in terms of their industry,
agriculture and military [power].

"As for Egypt, the [high] population growth [rate] is not a disgrace, as
people try to depict it... We have a human resource that is the envy of the
world. If we recognize [the benefit it holds] and harness it, as is done in
other large countries around the world, Egypt's [population of] 100 million
will yield world-renowned politicians, scientists and athletes, as well as
atomic and technology experts..."[23]

Egypt's Government Should Formulate Strategy For Deriving Benefit From The
Large Population

A similar opinion was expressed by Al-Ahram columnist Nasser Za'louk, who
likewise mentioned India and China as countries with large populations that
are highly developed. He wrote: "This [population] growth [rate] must be
transformed into an asset by formulating a strategy for improving the
standards of education and technological training and creating jobs, so as
to boost production, development and progress... China, India and the U.S.,
the world's three most populous countries, have used their large populations
to the best possible advantage by becoming advanced in all domains and
attaining immense economic development. In Egypt the situation is different.
Although we possess valuable natural resources, the population growth [rate]
has become a burden in a period of severe economic crisis. The government
must give top priority to [formulating] a program and strategy for deriving
benefit from this huge population growth rate..."[24]



*H. Varulkar is Director of Research at MEMRI; C. Meital is a research
fellow at MEMRI.




[1] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), July 31, 2016; Elbalad.news, August 26, 2016.


[2] Npc.gov.eg.


[3] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1265 Three Years Into
Al-Sisi's Rule: Difficult Challenges At Home And Abroad, August 14, 2016.


[4] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), July 30, 2016.


[5] Al-Misriyyoun (Egypt), August 26, 2016.


[6] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), June 14, 2016.


[7] Copts-united.com, February 2, 2015.


[8] Al-Ahram (Egypt), September 25, 2016.


[9] Al-Ahram (Egypt), October 16, 2016.


[10] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), July 31, 2016.


[11] Al-Watan (Egypt), July 31, 2016.


[12] Al-Watan (Egypt), August 22, 2016.


[13] Al-Watan (Egypt), August 29, 2016.


[14] Al-Wafd (Egypt), August 19, 2016.


[15] Dar-alifta.org, January 17, 2016.


[16] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), March 11, 2003.


[17] Dotmsr.com, May 8, 2016; Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), April 12, 2016, July
19, 2016; Elbalad.news, July 20, 2016; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (Egypt), March 15,
2016.


[18] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), June 21, 2016.


[19] Al-Ahram (Egypt), August 24, 2016.


[20] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6114, Egyptian Columnists On Al-Sisi
Regime's Campaign For 'Renewal Of Religious Discourse' As A Way Of Fighting
Terrorism, July 23, 2015.


[21] Al-Ahram (Egypt), August 26, 2016.


[22] Akhbar Al-Yawm (Egypt), August 22, 2016.


[23] Al-Ahram (Egypt), November 26, 2016.


[24] Al-Ahram (Egypt), November 27, 2016.
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