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Monday, August 14, 2017
China needs Israeli innovation more than diplomatic photo ops

Is China Intervening in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict?
Roie Yellinek
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 558, August 13, 2017
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/china-israel-palestinians/

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On July 18, 2017, PA President Mahmoud Abbas met with
Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to the media, the meeting was
productive. "Beijing will create a dialogue mechanism between Israel and the
Palestinians, with China being the mediator, and later this year China will
hold a peace conference and try to resolve the conflict", according to Xi.
This sounds good, but Beijing has more pressing priorities. It is not
interested in forging deals with little chance of success.

On July 18, 2017, PA President Mahmoud Abbas met for the fourth time with
Chinese President Xi Jinping in China. The meeting was apparently good,
judging by the declarations of continued cooperation between the sides.

President Xi called the Palestinian people "true friends, partners, and
brothers", and voiced support for "independent Palestinian sovereignty". In
addition, Zhang Ming, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, said in Xi's name
that "Beijing will create a dialogue mechanism between Israel and the
Palestinians, with China being the mediator, and later this year China will
hold a peace conference and try to resolve the conflict".

This is not the first time the Chinese have made declarations like this.
Similar sentiments were expressed when Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu visited
China last March.

The war in Syria, which started more than five years ago, has prompted
Chinese representatives to say they are working to reduce the fighting.
President Xi told Abbas that China had sent a representative to try to
mediate between the sides in Syria, and the Chinese hosted the competing
sides at a convention in Beijing. In 2015, the Chinese government sent
economic representatives to Syria to discuss Chinese support for the
development of the Syrian transportation system.

Syria is in an area of great geopolitical influence for China. It could
serve to expand Chinese interests, most significantly regarding railway and
civil aviation projects. With that said, none of the assorted declarations
and conferences resulted in any actual planning of the transportation routes
discussed in 2015.

The Chinese government understands full well that responsibility goes
hand-in-hand with geopolitical and economic growth on an international
scale. An important part of that responsibility is helping other nations,
even those that are not of economic interest, to solve conflicts.

Though China sees itself as a great power, it reaches out primarily to
countries within its own sphere of direct influence; i.e., eastern Asia and
parts of central Asia. However, the Chinese economy is rated second in the
world and continues to grow despite negative forecasts. There is a growing
expectation among international observers that Beijing should reach out to
other nations outside its sphere of influence.

This comports with the image the Chinese want to create of China as a caring
nation, one that is aware of the world around it. It is therefore fitting
that the Chinese would express a willingness to help resolve the Israel-Arab
conflict. It is, after all, a conflict that receives widespread publicity.
That publicity could give China many "credit points" at the UN and among the
international media.

It is early for anyone to get excited, however. The Chinese have claimed an
interest in the Israeli-Palestinian problem before without result, and
similar declarations were made about the Syrian conflict with no real
change. The Chinese have a strong economic orientation and are not
interested in forging deals with little chance of success. And the chance of
a successful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian problem, whether mediated
by the US or by China, remains small.

China does not have a strong enough military to be a deciding factor in
these conflicts. This does not mean the Chinese won't send a representative,
or even official representatives, to Jerusalem and Ramallah and possibly
even to Gaza. It is quite possible that they will appoint a representative
to stay in the area on a regular basis. A peace summit, led by the Chinese
president, could also be held. It can be expected to produce impressive
photos of the three leaders.

But nothing will come of any of this. The Chinese are growing financially,
and they are smart enough to understand where it is - and is not -
worthwhile to stick their noses. In addition, they will not want to risk
ruining their steadily improving relations with Israel in exchange for a few
photos and articles that boost China's reputation as a mediator. To be the
powerhouse they want to be, they need Israeli innovation much more than they
need those photos.
.........
Roie Yellinek is a doctoral student in the department of Middle East studies
at Bar-Ilan University.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the
Greg Rosshandler Family

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