Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Yaakov Lappin describes a window of opportunity
during which Israel may be able to deter a response to decisive action it
takes against Hamas and possibly even an Israeli operation geared to erase
the massive missile build up in Lebanon in violation of UNSC 1701. Lappin
doesn’t identify Israel's gizmo edge as being of limited duration, but it’s
the nature of technology that its only a matter of time that there are other
gizmos that may level the playing field. While the F-35 may be the shiniest
gizmo in the neighborhood today, Russia and China aren't sitting on their
hands. They are both also involved in developing and producing leading edge
military technology and our neighborhood is a prime market for their wares.

With Iran on Its Doorstep, Israel Quietly Readies Game-Changing Air Power
By Yaakov Lappin
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 649, November 21, 2017
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-doorstep-israel-readies-air-power/v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli air power now has capabilities beyond any yet
seen in military history. Its aerial strike capabilities are likely to prove
decisive to the outcome of any military action taken against Iran in Syria.

Iran has big plans to create a military outpost in Syria, right on Israel’s
doorstep. From there, the Islamic Republic could threaten and attack Israel
in the future.

Israel is currently employing two tools to try and prevent this from
happening: diplomacy and deterrence. Diplomatically, Jerusalem is reaching
out to global powers and the international community, informing them of the
consequences of Iran’s actions in a bid to create pressure on Tehran. To
achieve deterrence, Israel is making clear to Iran and its agents that it
has no intention of allowing them to proceed with their plans.

But what can Israel do if these prevention efforts fail, as they might? In
such a scenario, Israel would have to fall back on military action. Some of
that action would likely involve Israel’s new aerial strike capabilities.

These recently developed capabilities might well surpass any display of air
power seen in military history thus far. They are based on an ability to use
precise intelligence, combined with precision-guided weaponry, to destroy up
to several thousand targets in just a matter of hours.

This is a tool that the Israel Air Force, together with the Military
Intelligence Directorate of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), has been
developing quietly over recent years. It is a game-changing capability that
significantly boosts Israeli deterrence against its enemies. It also boosts
actual war fighting capabilities, should these be called upon.

In recent weeks and months, there have been indications that Iran is testing
the waters in Syria. It is seeing how far it can go, and how far it can push
Israel’s red lines.

In November, a Western intelligence source shared satellite imagery with the
showing a new Iranian base being built south of Damascus. The facility can
house hundreds of personnel and vehicles. It is a mere 50 kilometers from
Syria’s border with Israel, and represents the tip of the iceberg of Iran’s
plans for Syria.

This month, during a visit to London, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told
the BBC in an interview that the Iranians “want to bring their air force
there, right next to Israel, they want to bring Shi’ite and Iranian
divisions right next to Israel. They want to bring submarines. So we will
not let that happen, we will resist it.”

Israel’s Kan News broadcaster also recently reported Iranian plans to set up
a division in Syria made up of 5,000 soldiers, air force bases containing
Iranian fighter jets, and Iranian naval bases on the Syrian coastline.

Iran has already deployed to Syria thousands of Shiite militia members
recruited from across the Middle East. They have been armed and trained by
the Iranian Republican Guards Corps and the elite overseas Iranian Quds
Force.

The Iranians also run militia units made up of Syrian recruits. The
Commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Solemani, was recently photographed in
eastern Syria with members of one such militia, the al-Baqr Battalion. The
Iranians also helped build up other Syrian military forces, like the 313
Battalion.

At the same time, Iran appears to have stepped up efforts to create missile
factories on Syrian soil, which it can use to arm its chief Shiite proxy,
Hezbollah. One of these factories was reportedly struck by Israel last
month.

As ISIS crumbles and the remainder of the Syrian Sunni rebels face defeat in
Syria, Iran, which runs Assad’s ground war, will be free to shift the focus
of its Syrian presence towards Israel.

Israel is prepared to deal with this threat militarily if necessary, though
the intelligence challenge would be considerable. Many of the targets in
question would not be clear-cut Iranian military entities, but rather
proxies and militias attempting to disguise themselves or embedded into the
local environment. Still, Israel’s intelligence capabilities should be up to
the job of detecting and monitoring the targets and passing them on to the
air force.

So far, Israel has used its precision strike capabilities for pinpoint
attacks on targets that are part of the Hezbollah–Iran weapons program. But
these same strike capabilities can be activated on a grand scale. The same
air power can also be directed against the Assad regime, which the Iranian
axis has fought for years to rescue and preserve.

In theory, Israel could inform Iran that its treasured Assad regime would be
in jeopardy if Israel’s red lines are crossed in Syria.

Needless to say, any major escalation in Syria would almost certainly draw
in Hezbollah in Lebanon as well, as the two fronts are interlinked. The
Syrian-Lebanese border has become more of an imaginary line on a map than a
real international boundary, as Hezbollah moves weapons and fighters across
it on a regular basis. Any escalation on the Syrian front could easily
activate the Lebanese front.

The stakes in Syria are very high, and Israel remains committed to the
objective of preventing conflict on its northern fronts. So far, it has
succeeded in this goal.

Russia has thus far appeared to help restrain its radical allies in Syria,
but its role in any potential escalation remains unclear.

But should Iran ignore all of Israel’s warnings, Israel’s new air power will
likely prove decisive to the outcome of military action in this arena.

===============
This article was published by i24NEWS on November 14, 2017.

Yaakov Lappin is a Research Associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for
Strategic Studies, where he recently published the study The Low-Profile War
Between Israel and Hezbollah. He specializes in Israel’s defense
establishment, military affairs, and the Middle Eastern strategic
environment.

BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the
Greg Rosshandler Family