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Monday, February 1, 2010
PCPO poll of Palestinians: favor 1 state over 2 state solution 62.5%:36.8, 40.2% would immigrate if could

Poll No. 169
Date: February 1, 2010

The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted in Gaza
Strip revealed that:

(57.6 %) are in favor of the stay of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) in
his office as President of the Palestinian Authority up till
holding of the next presidential elections.

(67.5 %) are in favor of concluding a peace agreement with Israel.

(82.1 %) believe that the Egyptian document is a good ground for the

(59.1 %) believe that the origin of the dispute between Fateh and Hamas is
a political one.

(40.2 %) agree at various extents that Hamas is giving the Palestinian
reconciliation an important priority on the top of its agenda.

(69.7 %) have at various extents confidence in the public opinion polls.

(51.2 %) evaluated their economical situation as "bad".

(48.7 %) believe that the announcement of President Mahmoud Abbas of
his unwillingness to run in the presidential elections is a

(46.2 %) are in favor of Hamas participation in the next elections.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

Q 1. Some people believe the announcement of President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu
Mazin) that he is unwilling to run in the coming Palestinian Authority
presidential elections is an irrefutable decision. Others believe that's
just an election maneuver, whilst other people believe that its aim is to
exert pressure on Israel and the United States. Which of these is the
closest to your opinion?

1. It's an irrefutable decision 25.0
2. It's an election maneuver 48.7
3. It's for exerting pressure on Israel and the US 24.2
4. I don't know / refused 2.1

Q 2. Whom, do you think, should be held responsible for not putting an end
to the conflict between Hamas and Fatah?
1. Hamas 40.8
2. Fatah 12.5
3. Both of them 42.6
4. I don't know 4.1

Q 3. Do you expect the conclusion of an agreement between Hamas and Fatah
within the next weeks?
1. Absolutely 1.8
2. Likely 24.6
3. Possible 31.1
4. Unlikely 19.7
5. Absolutely not 18.9
6. I don't know 3.9

Q 4. Do you think that the Palestinian citizen in Gaza Strip enjoys human
1. To a great degree 4.4
2. To a mediocre degree 20.8
3. To a slight degree 70.8
4. I don't know / refused 4.0

Q 5. What do you think is the origin of the dispute between Fatah and Hamas?
Is it of a political or religious nature?
1. Political 59.1
2. Religious 6.8
3. Both 24.0
4. None of them 7.4
5. Don't know 2.7

Q 6. Hamas refused to sign the Egyptian Reconciliation Paper and end the
dispute with Fatah due to:
1. External pressure 27.5
2. Inconformity with Hamas interests 42.0
3. Differences inside Hamas itself 13.4
4. Procrastination and gaining time in order to enforce the status
quo 16.9
5. Don't know 0.2

Q 7. Do you think the Egyptian Paper was adequate for reconciling both
adverse parties and ending the Palestinian schism?
1. Yes, in a very good manner 28.6
2. Yes, in somewhat good manner 53.5
3. No, in somewhat bad manner 13.1
4. No, in a very bad manner 3.9
5. Don't know 0.9

Q 8. What do you think is the best way for ending the Palestinian schism and
achieving the reunion of the Palestinian people?
1. Serious negotiations 48.1
2. Abiding by the partisan neutrality 20.1
3. Stand back from external pressures 23.6
4. Build up the state assets and institutions 5.8
5. Other (please specify: ) 1.7
6. Don't know 0.7

Q 9. What do you think, generally, is more important: the Palestinian
reconciliation and, subsequently, the end of the Palestinian schism, or the
opening of the border crossings?
1. The reconciliation and the end of the schism 74.4
2. Opening the border crossings 23.9
3. Don't know 1.7

Q 10. What is more important from your point of view: the Palestinian
reconciliation or the negotiations with Israel for achieving peace and the
establishment of the Palestinian State with Jerusalem its capital?
1. The reconciliation 51.1
2. The negotiations 10.5
3. Both are equal 36.3
4. Don't know 2.1

Q 11. Do you agree to or oppose Hamas option of accepting a ten-years-truce
against the establishment of a temporary Palestinian state?
1. Strongly agree 13.7
2. Somewhat agree 26.5
3. Somewhat oppose 17.1
4. Strongly oppose 30.3
5. I don't know 12.4

Q 12. Who, in your opinion, should be held accountable for the daily
human-life losses as a result of the collapses of the underground tunnels at
the Palestinian-Egyptian borders?
1. Hamas 52.1
2. Egypt 22.4
3. The Palestinian Authority in Ramallah 7.6
4. Don't know 17.9

Q 13. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat oppose or strongly
oppose that Hamas puts the Palestinian reconciliation and the ending of the
dispute with Fateh as the utmost important priority at the top of its
1. Strongly agree 15.5
2. Somewhat agree 23.4
3. Somewhat oppose 17.5
4. Strongly oppose 30.1
5. Don't know 13.4

Q 14. Do you agree to or oppose Hamas' decision of prohibiting the National
Labor Corporation in Gaza Strip from commemorating the 5th anniversary of
the death of the national leader, Late Yassir Arafat (Abu Ammar)?
1. Agree to 15.6
2. Oppose 75.3
3. I don't know 9.1

Q 15. Who, according to your opinion, is benefiting most from the
underground tunnels excavated at the Egyptian-Palestinian borders?
1. Hamas 49.7
2. The deposed government 15.3
3. The people 26.4
4. Don't know 8.6

16. What is better in your opinion: opening the border crossings between
Gaza Strip and the Palestinian Territories via Israel or maintaining the
underground tunnels to bring in to the people the necessary goods and
1. Opening the border crossings 93.4
2. The underground tunnels 3.9
3. Don't know 2.7

Q 17. Are you in favor of a long truce with Israel or in favor of a peace
1. Truce 24.8
2. Peace deal 67.0
3. Don't know 8.2

Q 18. Do you favor or oppose Hamas prohibition of women riding motorcycles
with men?
1. Favor 67.5
2. Oppose 22.2
3. Don't know 10.3

Q 19. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the deposed
Prime Minister, Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh?
1. Strongly satisfied 13.9
2. Somewhat satisfied 17.7
3. Somewhat dissatisfied 20.9
4. Strongly dissatisfied 36.8
5. Don't know 10.7

Q 20. If there would be soon new presidential elections for the Palestinian
Authority, in which Mr. Mahmoud Abbas would run for Fateh and Mr. Ismael
Haniyyeh for Hamas, for whom would you vote?
1. For Mr. Mahmoud Abbas 45.3
2. For Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh 17.7
3. I wouldn't participate in the elections 28.5
4. I don't know / no opinion 8.4

Q 21. If Mr. Mahmoud Abbas would run in the presidential elections versus
Mr. Salam Fayyad, for whom would you cast your vote?
1. For Mr. Mahmoud Abbas 42.1
2. For Mr. Salam Fayyad 8.5
3. I wouldn't participate in the elections 36.1
4. I don't know / no opinion 13.2

Q 22. Hamas contested the legitimacy of the Elections' Central Committee
chaired by Dr. Hanna Nasser, closed the ECC offices in Gaza Strip and
prevented ECC from preparing for the general elections constitutionally
scheduled for January 24th, 2010. Do you support or oppose Hamas in doing
1. Support 15.8
2. Oppose 71.3
3. Don't know 12.9

Q 23. Do you support the stay of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas in his office as
President of the Palestinian Authority after the scheduled January 24th,
2010 or the handing-over of his office to Mr. Aziz Adduwaik, chairman of the
Palestinian Legislative Council, until new presidential elections are held?
1. I support the handing over of the office to Mr. Aziz Adduwaik 21.4
2. I support the stay of Mr. Abbas in his office 53.6
3. Don't know 25.0

Q 24. Some people think that Hamas should run in the political and
legislative elections if these were held next year. Others oppose the
participation of
Hamas in the coming elections. Which of the two attitudes is closes to your
1. Support Hamas participation in the elections 46.2
2. Oppose Hamas participation in the elections 44.0
3. I don't know / refuse to respond 9.8

Q 25. Who, from the following list, is your favorite candidate for the PA
Presidency in the next elections?
1. Mahmoud Abbas 27.0
2. Ismael Haniyyeh 9.8
3. Ahmed Qurai (Abu Ala') 0.4
4. Marwan Barghouthi 15.3
5. Mahmoud Azzahhar 1.5
6. Aziz Adduwaik 4.2
7. Mustapha Barghouthi 2.9
8. Salam Fayyad 4.0
9. Khaled Mish'al 2.0
10. Mohammed Dahlan 8.5
11. Taysir Khaled 1.1
12. Jibril Arrjoub 0.3
13. Sari Nusaibeh 0.3
14. Other (please specify): __ 2.3
15. I don't know 20.5

Q 26. How would you evaluate the situation of the Palestinian security at
present in Gaza Strip?
1. Very good 7.8
2. Good 19.5
3. Mediocre 17.4
4. Bad 17.3
5. Very bad 37.4
6. I don't know 0.5

Q 27. How would you rate your economic situation in general?
1. Good 13.9
2. Mediocre 34.2
3. Bad 51.2
4. I don't know 0.8

Q 28. Up to which extent are you worried at present about the subsistence
of your family ?
1. Very much worried 34.5
2. Worried 41.2
3. Not so much worried 16.4
4. Not worried at all 7.0
5. Don't know 0.8

Q 29. What is your main concern at present?
1. Job / money 23.0
2. Security 38.3
3. Health 16.2
4. The future 22.5

Q 30. Given an assessment scale from (1) to (10), where (1) stands for
"very much dissatisfied" and (10) for "very much satisfied", how would you
assess your satisfaction or dissatisfaction, in general, with the life
you're living?
Answer from (1) to (10): The outcome was in average: 4.37

31. Now think of the future, and particularly when your children become in
your age. Do you think there would be ever peace between Israelis and the
1. Yes, definitely 1.7
2. Yes, likely 31.5
3. Possible 21.3
4. Unlikely 8.9
5. Definitely, no 27.6
6. Don't know 9.0

Q 32. If the immigration possibility to the West would be open to you, would
you immigrate or stay in your country?
1. I would stay 57.4
2. I would immigrate 40.2
3. I don't know 2.5

Q 33. How do you evaluate the economic situation in Gaza Strip, in general,
under the government of Ismael Haniyyeh?
1. Has improved 8.6
2. Has deteriorated 70.7
3. Remained unchanged 18.6
4. Don't know 2.1

Q 34. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose
or strongly oppose the resumption of the peace negotiations between
Palestinians and Israelis?
1. I strongly support it 15.2
2. I somewhat support it 48.9
3. I somewhat oppose it 15.6
4. I strongly oppose it 11.1
5. I don't know 6.2
6. Refused 3.0

Q 35. Do you support or oppose the stay of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas in his office
as President of the Palestinian Authority up till new presidential elections
are held?
1. Support 57.6
2. Oppose 28.3
3. Don't know 14.1

Q 36. In general, up to which extent do you trust what you read or hear from
poll results? to a great extent, to a fair extent, not to such an extent or
absolutely not at all?
1. To a great extent 18.0
2. To a fair extent 51.7
3. Not to such an extent 22.4
4. Absolutely not at all 4.7
5. No opinion 3.2

Q 37. Do you favor or oppose the unilateral proclamation of a Palestinian
1. Favor 45.9
2. Oppose 39.2
3. Don't know / refuse 14.9

Q 38. What is the utmost priority from your own point of view?
1. Reunion of the West Bank and Gaza Strip 48.2
2. Reconstruction of what has been destroyed by the Israeli excursion in
Gaza Strip 21.2
3. Back to the calm and the opening of the border crossings to Gaza Strip
4. I have no opinion / I don't know 1.6

Q 39. There are lot of strategic concepts for the resolution of the conflict
in the region and the self-determination of the Palestinian people. What is
your evaluation to each of the following?
1. One democratic state on the soil of the whole historical Palestine, in
which all its citizens should enjoy the same rights without religious,
ethnic, racial or gender discrimination. 62.5

2. Two states, one Palestinian, the other Israeli, live in peaceful
coexistence side by side as good neighbors (in conformity with the
resolution of the Palestinian National Council of 1988 and the UN-Resolution
no. 242). 36.8

3. I don't know 0.7

Q 40. In case all efforts fail to reach a settlement aiming at the revival
of peace, which of the following options is most likely to take place on the
Palestinian side:

1. Unilateral proclamation of a Palestinian state and escalation of
the violent resistance. 37.3

2. Dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and putting the world
before the responsibilities for the jurisdiction vacuum resulting from the
dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and the steering of the resistance
by the Palestinian factions. 38.0

3. Keep the status quo, i.e. the Palestinian Authority, beside
developing new strategies to conduct the Palestinian affairs. 24.0

4. I don't know 0.7

Q 41. With the internal schism between Fateh and Hamas in the background,
which of the following scenarios deem most likely to force itself on the
internal Palestinian landscape:

1. The status quo remains. Limited crises and clashes. 11.1

2. The prevailing situation explodes to a situation similar to that of the
civil war. 4.6

3. A political deal between the factions, particularly between Fateh and
Hamas, is reached as to settle the disputes between them without applying
violence. 70.3

4. The political, security and economic crises escalate to the collapse of
the Palestinian Authority 7.9

5. Gaza Strip will be cut off from the west Bank. 5.4

6. I don't know 0.7

42. In the shadow of the prevailing conflict between Fateh and Hamas, do
you think there is a necessity for a third political stream, which could be
able to end the Palestinian plague?

1. Yes, there is a necessity for such a stream 21.6
2. No, there is no necessity for such a stream 65.8
3. I don't know 12.6

Methodology of the Survey Study:
"All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondents'
homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least five hours
a' day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper presentation
of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to
reach and selecting one individual in each household using the Last Birthday
Method. ", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies
Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were taken from a Percentage of (102)
sites located in Gaza Strip.

These sites are randomly chosen in accordance with PCPO's long experienced
methodology. The sampling error throughout the survey is found at (2.57%)
at a confidence level of (95 %). Elias Kukali added "the percentage of
female respondents was (47.9%) whereas that of the male respondents reached
(52.1%). The average age of the sample respondents was (32.4) years.

Mr. E. Kukali further pointed out that the allocation of the sample in
respect of the type of residence was as follows: (60.8%) city, (4.8%)
village and (34.4%) refugee camp.

About PCPO:

The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February
1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who became the director of
this center since that time.

Since that time we are dedicated to the following activities:
1) Conducting public opinion surveys.
2) Omnibus polls and services.
3) Market studies on all kinds of trading activities.
4) Surveys of consumer attitudes, consumption habits, and market shares.
Communication researches.
5) Focus group sessions and workshops on various topics.
6) Rendering services in the field of investment, including feasibility
7) In-depth interviews & brainstorming workshops.
8) Translation services from Arabic into English, German & Hebrew and

PCPO is now a name for reliability, credibility and experience not only in
Palestine, but all over the world.

Find out more about us, along with the latest polls at www.pcpo.org
Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali & Elias Kukali
Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Fax: 00970 2 277 4892
Mobile: 00970 599 726 878
P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine
Email: dr.kukali@pcpo.org

Beit Sahour - The Public Relations Section

The most recent poll drafted by Dr. Nabil Kukali and published by the
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion on February 1st, 2010 included a
random sample of (1450) respondents representing all the demographic
spectrum of the residents of Gaza Strip at the age of (18) years and older.
The poll results revealed that a clear majority of the Palestinians,
specifically (57.6 %), are in favor of the stay of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu
Mazin) in his office as President of the Palestinian Authority up till the
holding of the next presidential elections.

In his comments on the poll findings, Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director-General of
the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that a considerable rate,
representing almost half of Gaza residents, believe that the announcement of
President Mahmoud Abbas of his unwillingness to run in the presidential
elections is a maneuver and that the dispute between Fateh and Hamas is
fundamentally of political origin. Dr. Kukali added that the Palestinian
public is of the opinion that only the serious negotiations represent the
solid ground of ending the Palestinian schism and recovering the unity of
the Palestinian people. "(82.1 %) of the Palestinian society in Gaza
consider the Egyptian document as a good basis for a reconciliation and a
settlement of the internal Palestinian dispute", Dr. Kukali said.
Furthermore, he referred to the finding that there is a certain optimism in
the Palestinian street, represented by (57.5 %) of the respondents, for the
possibility of reaching an agreement between the two major political
factions in the course of the coming few weeks.

In addition, Dr. Kukali illustrated that the poll findings clearly show the
resolve of the Palestinian people in Gaza Strip to encounter the risks and
challenges that face the Palestinian national scheme of ending the internal
Palestinian division, reinstate the union between the West Bank and Gaza
Strip, start a serious national dialogue that puts an end to the conflict
flaming up between Fateh and Hamas on the Palestinian landscape, take as
basis the results of the national references that are reached in March last
year to sign the Egyptian Paper as to escape the present impasse and run
free and fair elections.

Dr. Kukali further said that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinian
public, namely (75.3 %), are against Hamas decision preventing the National
Labor Corporation in Gaza Strip from commemorating the 5th anniversary of
the death of the national leader Yassir Arafat (Abu Ammar) and added that
(71.2 %) of the Palestinians in Gaza also oppose Hamas decision of closing
the offices of the Central Committee for Elections in Gaza Strip and
preventing CCE from preparing for the general elections constitutionally
scheduled for January 24th, 2010.

The head of PCPO further commented that in spite of the unutterable hardship
the Palestinians in Gaza are suffering at present and the deterioration of
their economic situation, but a significant majority of them still support a
peace deal with Israel and are in favor of resuming the peace talks between
Palestinians and Israelis. The international community, the European Union
and the international Quartette are therefore asked to expedite the lifting
of the siege from Gaza Strip, start rebuilding it and exert genuine pressure
on Israel as to abide by the conditions of the international Quartette, to
halt the settlement activities and to resume immediately the peace talks
from the point these were interrupted in Olmert's government in order to
reach a fair and comprehensive solution, with which all parties will be

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