Weekly Commentary: Imperative to wait for the dust to settle

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 24 February 2011

Recent developments in the Middle East have slammed shut the window of
opportunity for palming off land for pieces of paper deals based on best
case scenarios.

Schemes that relied on the performance of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and
others in the region now sound silly.

Even the ability of the United States to deliver on “iron clad guarantees”
to compensate for the security risks is not certain today.

If 2011 is the “year of revolution” in the Middle East, 2012 may be the
“year of disappointment” followed by 2013 as the year when the leadership
seeks to divert the wrath of the mob.

And if and when that day comes, it won’t matter if there is or isn’t a
sovereign Palestinian state. It won’t even matter if a Palestinian flag
flies from the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. There will always be a reason
to justify attacking the Jewish State when the alternative is being ousted
by the mob.

It is going to take years before we have a clear idea as to where our region
is actually heading.

Until then, the uncertainty is simply too great to make it possible to reach
a viable and durable agreement.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il