IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Iranian Refineries a Good Target?

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 09:40:10 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Iranian Refineries a Good Target?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 March 2026

Iran exports crude oil.

Its refineries, however, almost exclusively serve the domestic market.

Iran is already on the edge.

It would take only a few days to take all of its refineries offline.

Such a move could dramatically accelerate regime change by severely limiting
the capabilities of fuel-restricted Iranian security forces while increasing
the economic pressure that drives people into the streets.

Yes, Iran could attack more of its neighbors' refineries.

But the impact would be short-lived.

Consider the Brent futures market. While the spot price is spiking with
passage through the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Brent futures three
months out are only about $10 a barrel higher than pre-war levels.

There's more than enough refinery capacity outside of the Gulf region to
pick up the slack even in a worst-case scenario, in which Iran retaliates by
trying to damage even more of its neighbors' refineries.

So whatever happens in the coming days to Iran's refineries is unlikely to
materially affect what Americans pay for gasoline when they head to the
polls in November.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Shabbat War Rules - Raanana Rabbinate

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 07:18:54 -0500

The Religious Council
The Chief Rabbinate of Raanana
[Grok translation]
With the help of Heaven, on the eve of the holy Shabbat, Parashat Ki Tisa 5786
Guidelines for the Holy Shabbat Parashat Ki Tisa - Parah - Operation Lion’s Roar
To distribute the guidelines in anticipation of the upcoming holy Shabbat, in the midst of Operation Lion’s Roar.
Use of Elevator
• When there is one elevator in the building and residents of the upper floors need it to reach the shelter, it is recommended not to switch it to Shabbat mode this Shabbat.
• Permission to use the regular elevator is only for the purpose of going to the shelter and not for the purpose of praying in a minyan.
• After permission is given to leave the shelter, anyone who is able to climb the stairs to their home is permitted to use the regular elevator to return home, provided that the button is pressed in an altered manner - using a tool like a key or similar, and if none is available - even using the back of the finger.
Cell Phones
• It is permitted to carry a cell phone on Shabbat if it is required to prevent danger. Therefore, if a person leaves their home to a place where they will not be able to reach a protected space in time without hearing the early warning – they are permitted to take the phone with them for the purpose of the early alert.
• It is forbidden to press on the screen or the buttons to view messages on the screen.
• Pressing the button on the side of the screen on Shabbat is more severe than pressing the screen itself. Therefore, in a case of great need – such as needing to know if it is permitted to leave the protected space – one may press on the screen. In a case where the screen is off and there is a need to press the side button, and it is required for great need, press the side button in an altered manner.
• It is forbidden to disconnect the cell phone from the charger – even when the battery is full. It is possible to connect the charger in advance to a Shabbat clock and disconnect the cell phone when the Shabbat clock turns off. If there is concern that the battery will run out, it is also permitted to connect the cell phone to a charger connected to a Shabbat clock – when the Shabbat clock is off.
• It is recommended to charge a Shabbat phone to full battery.
Radio
• It is recommended to leave a radio / computer on in the protected room tuned to a quiet wave.
• It is permitted on Shabbat to increase or decrease the volume on the radio device (without turning it completely off), whether using a dial or buttons, provided that this action does not cause a light to turn on or off or a change in the device’s display.
• There is no permission to listen on Shabbat to news reports on radio or television except for instructions from the Home Front Command.
Light and Air Conditioner in the Protected Room
• It is recommended to leave a constant light on in the protected room using Shabbat switches. If forgotten and there is a need for lighting – it is permitted to turn on an incandescent bulb in an altered manner.
• It is recommended to prepare in the protected room emergency lighting with Shabbat switches that will turn on automatically in case of a power outage. If not prepared and there is a need for lighting – it is permitted to turn on a flashlight with an incandescent bulb in an altered manner.
• If available – it is recommended to leave a fan or air conditioner running in advance in the protected room. If not left on and the stay in the protected room is prolonged, and those sitting suffer from the heat – it is permitted to turn on a fan or air conditioner in an altered manner.

Alarm Between Kiddush and the Meal
• If they return to eat after staying in the protected room or shelter in a place where Kiddush was made – there is no need for an additional Kiddush, even if the shelter is outside the house.
• Preferably, one should not make Kiddush with the intention of eating in the protected room (such as when an alarm is expected) unless one can see the protected room from the place where Kiddush is made. In a time of pressing need, it is possible to rely on the protected room being in the same domain – even if it is not visible.
Alarm During Prayer
• During an alarm, one must immediately enter the protected space – according to the instructions of the Home Front Command – even if in the middle of the Amidah prayer. In this case, the best option – enter the protected space while walking and continue the prayer there. If one did not continue the prayer, since they stayed in the protected space longer than the time it takes to pray the Amidah from beginning to end, when leaving the protected room, they should restart the Amidah prayer anew.
• If they are in the repetition of the Amidah by the prayer leader and the prayer was interrupted for the entire stay in the protected space, then when they return to the synagogue, they should start the repetition of the Amidah anew. And if the Kohanim have already raised their hands the first time, then when the prayer leader repeats the prayer the second time, the Kohanim should not ascend again to raise their hands, but the prayer leader should say “Our God and God of our fathers….”
• If they are in any other place in the prayer, then when they return to the synagogue, they should continue from where they stopped.
• If they are in the Torah reading, they should stop the reading and cover the Torah scroll, and after returning, continue from where they stopped. If they stopped the reading after the blessing of the oleh before they managed to read: if the oleh did not interrupt speaking – they should start reading without the first blessing, and if they spoke even one word – they should repeat and bless.
Let us all pray for the success of our soldiers and all those engaged in the holy work of destroying the kingdom of evil, Let us thank the Holy One, Blessed be He, for the great miracles He performs for us, And let us increase prayer for great salvations and complete redemption Speedily in our days, Amen.
Shlomo Ishon Rabbi of Eastern Raanana

Weekly Commentary: Neutralizing Iran - Penultimate Step for Securing Israel's Future

Sat, 28 Feb 2026 14:08:39 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Neutralizing Iran - Penultimate Step for Securing
Israel's Future

Dr. Aaron Lerner 28 February 2026

The historic war launched today against the Iranian regime has the potential
to dramatically improve conditions in our region.

But it would be a grave error to think that the absence of Iranian support
renders Hamas and others so weak that complacency towards them is
acceptable.

There is a genuine danger that one of President Trump's buddies, Turkish
President Erdogan, sees the fall of the Ayatollah as an opportunity to take
the lead of the anti-Israel camp.

Turkey already has intelligence operations on the ground in Gaza as well as
other activities in support of Hamas.

This in addition to Turkish involvement in Syria against Israeli security
interests.

To be clear: We will be eternally grateful to President Trump for joining us
in the war to free the world from the threat of the Iranian regime.

But just as we did not sit passively, relying on America to have our backs
regarding Iran, we must never forfeit our control over our destiny on other
fronts.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Is There an Exit Plan for Haredi Placators?

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 03:24:34 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Is There an Exit Plan for Haredi Placators?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 February 2026

The justification for placating the Haredis is straightforward: we need them in the coalition.

That's what drives most Likud MKs, or for that matter, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionism party and Israel’s Finance Minister, to support destructive pro-Haredi policies and programs.

They know that the proposed draft law is not going to achieve its goals.

They know that the boys attending Haredi educational institutions aren't being provided with the critical tools to ultimately make a decent living or a significant contribution to the economy.

They know how destructive it is that Haredi families can actively choose to be poor thanks to a system of grants, subsidies, and discounts.

But they are also certain that at this particular point in time it would be a disaster if the Haredis weren't in the ruling coalition.

I am not about to challenge this assessment.

I have a very different challenge for the "placate the Haredis" camp:

What's your exit plan?

What circumstances on the ground are required so that it is no longer necessary to support the destructive "placate the Haredis" policies?

What's your plan to reach those conditions?

How many years do you expect this to take, given that the cost to Israeli society of these policies is cumulative and permanent?

After all, the overwhelming majority of young men who were denied critical elements of their education will never be able to catch up as adults.

We know this from their high failure rate in educational programs for adult Haredi men.

I appreciate that the temptation is great to assume that even if we never cease to placate the Haredis, things will ultimately work out thanks to external factors such as the internet.

But it is catastrophically dangerous to bet our collective future on hope rather than on a serious action plan.

Again: this arrangement cannot last forever.

I'm not interested in the arguments of the "placate the Haredis" camp in support of the policies they back, because these arguments aren't the real reasons they themselves support these policies.

In the absence of a clear exit plan, the "placate the Haredis" camp could very well be punished at the ballot box this year.

Right now, polls show that Smotrich's party isn't even close to the support needed to get into the Knesset again.

Yes, if an exit plan is commonly known, the Haredi leadership may try to thwart it.

On the other hand, if there is a clear vision of what's required, it is conceivable that many not in the current ruling coalition will opt to cooperate in facilitating the "exit plan."

For the sake of our nation and future generations, let's set aside the fake arguments and deal with what is really on the table.
_______________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

CSA Poll: 64% Syrians support sign security arrangement with Israel

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 18:20:49 -0500

CSA Poll of Syrians 64% support sign security arrangement with Israel

COUNCIL FOR A SECURE AMERICA (CSA) SYRIA PUBLIC OPINION POLLING REPORT – JANUARY 2026
SAMPLE: 260 SYRIANS AGE 18+
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 05%
DATA COLLECTED JANUARY 8-15, 2026 BY YOUGOV ONLINE PANEL
https://councilforsecureamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CSA-Syria-Public-Opinion-Polling.pdf

How would you rate the performance of Ahmed Al-Sharaa as President of Syria?
69% total good rating
12% total poor rating

44% very good
25% good
11% neither good nor poor
04% poor
08% very poor
08% prefer not to answer

Overall, how would you describe the impact of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria?
05% total positive impact
70% total negative impact

02% very positive
04% somewhat positive
07% neither positive nor negative
12% somewhat negative
59% very negative
17% prefer not to answer

How would you describe the role of the United States in Syria’s political and economic affairs?
65% total positive
14% total negative

24% very positive
41% somewhat positive
10% neither positive nor negative
06% somewhat negative
09% very negative
11% prefer not to answer

How likely to unlikely do you think it is that there will be peace between Israel and Syria in the future?
59% total likely
14% total unlikely

26% very likely
33% somewhat likely
13% neither likely nor unlikely
06% somewhat unlikely
08% very unlikely
15% prefer not to answer

How would you feel about the new government of Syria signing a security arrangement with Israel aimed at ensuring Syria’s safety and prosperity?
64% total support
08% total oppose

29% strongly support
35% somewhat support
14% neither support nor oppose
03% somewhat oppose
06% strongly oppose
14% prefer not to answer

If there was a long-term resolution to the issue of Palestine, how would you view the normalization of diplomatic or economic relations between Syria and Israel?
47% total support
13% total oppose

21% strongly support
26% somewhat support
24% neither support nor oppose
06% somewhat oppose
07% strongly oppose
16% prefer not to answer

(Among males: 60% total support)
(Among females: 34% total support)

CSA Poll of Lebanese: 63% Disarm Hezbollah

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 18:19:16 -0500

CSA Poll of Lebanese: 63% Disarm Hezbollah
============================================================
LEBANON — JANUARY 2026
COUNCIL FOR A SECURE AMERICA (CSA) LEBANON PUBLIC OPINION POLLING REPORT – JANUARY 2026
SAMPLE: 252 LEBANESE AGE 18+
MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 05%
DATA COLLECTED JANUARY 8-14, 2026 BY YOUGOV ONLINE PANEL
https://councilforsecureamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CSA-Lebanon-Public-Opinion-Polling.pdf

How would you rate the performance of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon?
57% total good rating
09% total poor rating

22% very good
35% good
23% neither good nor poor
05% poor
04% very poor
11% prefer not to answer

How would you feel about efforts by President Aoun to strengthen the Lebanese Army and negotiate the disarmament of Hezbollah so that all armed forces in Lebanon operate under the Government’s authority?
63% total support
09% total oppose

34% strongly support
29% somewhat support
15% neither support nor oppose
06% somewhat oppose
03% strongly oppose
14% prefer not to answer
(Among males: 74% total support)
(Among females: 52% total support)

Overall, how would you describe the impact of Hezbollah’s military presence on Lebanon’s security?
10% total positive impact
52% total negative impact

05% very positive
06% somewhat positive
14% neither positive nor negative
09% somewhat negative
42% very negative
24% prefer not to answer
(Among males: 08% total positive 63% total negative)
(Among females: 12% total positive 40% total negative)

How would you describe the role of the United States in Lebanon’s political and economic affairs?
27% total positive
31% total negative

05% very positive
22% somewhat positive
23% neither positive nor negative
16% somewhat negative
15% very negative
19% prefer not to answer

How likely to unlikely do you think it is that there will be peace between Israel and Lebanon in the future?
40% total likely
27% total unlikely

13% very likely
27% somewhat likely
13% neither likely nor unlikely
11% somewhat unlikely
16% very unlikely
20% prefer not to answer
(Among males: 44% total likely)
(Among females: 36% total likely)

If there was a long-term resolution to the issue of Palestine, how would you view the normalization of diplomatic or economic relations between Lebanon and Israel?
31% total support
27% total oppose

09% strongly support
15% somewhat support
25% neither support nor oppose
09% somewhat oppose
13% strongly oppose
28% prefer not to answer