IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Employ Disarmed Terrorists in North - not South - Lebanon!

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:13:26 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Employ Disarmed Terrorists in North - not South -
Lebanon!
Dr. Aaron Lerner 28 August 2025

It is going to take years to clear southern Lebanon from extensive war
damage. Almost all the buildings have been destroyed so housing is
extremely limited and the agricultural land is strewn with debris and even
some unexploded ordnance so that employment in agriculture is also
irrelevant.

Despite this , Trump envoy Tom Barrack announced plans this week to finance
the deployment of Hezbollah forces, ostensibly sans weapons, on Israel's
border in a jobs program.

And please, don't claim that they will be employed in innocent civilian
construction.

Because if Hezbollah is paid to rebuild South Lebanon it will be child's
play for them to exploit the opportunity to embed military structures within
the ostensibly civilian buildings.

This is a reckless half-baked idea.

Where is Secretary of Sate Marco Rubio's team?

"I want the Department of State to have the best ideas and the best options
available for the President...we want to be at the core of how we formulate
foreign policy, because we're going to have the best ideas of any agency..."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Remarks to Employees 21 January 2025

Want a jobs program for disarmed terrorists?

Offer it hundreds of kilometers away in Sunni dominated northern Lebanon.

There are Shia communities in this area, which was barely touched by the
war.

And while unemployment now is high in that region, a properly funded jobs
program for disarmed terrorists could have an economic spillover effect to
the benefit of the Sunni majority.

A real jobs program in the north could be implemented quickly.

A jobs program for terrorists on Israel's border would essentially keep this
terrorist force intact to threaten the Jewish state.

Secretary Rubio - why isn't your team pushing an alternative?

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Reaction To E-1 Indicates No Tsunami in September

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 10:59:23 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Reaction To E-1 Indicates No Tsunami in September

Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 August 2025

While Two State Solution zealots are drooling over the prospects that various nations plan to join the 147 countries which already recognize a sovereign Palestinians state in September, the reaction to E-1 building plans indicates that the world understands that such action is meaningless without Israel’s consent.

There won’t be a tsunami in September.

That’s not to say that we should be complacent.

Germany’s surprise arms embargo serves as an important warning.

Political developments in the USA also send a clear message.

We have a window now of less than four years to reach defense independence.

That doesn’t mean being able to manufacture domestically every piece of equipment we now import.

It means thinking out of the box to deploy Israeli technology and production which can address Israel’s defense needs.

Elbit’s project to produce a portfolio of airborne lasers fits into such a program (if we don’t make the mistake of having some parts made overseas).

I want to be painfully clear about this: Even if we were remove the Jews from all of Judea and Samaria and even the Jewish Quarter of Jerusalem, the inevitable tension between what’s left of the Jewish State and a sovereign Palestinian State, inhabited by a population brainwashed for two generation by our PA “peace partner” to destroy us, could lead to an arms embargo.

Do not underrate the radicals who protested in the streets of America and Europe in support of Hamas.

Some of them already were White House staffers in the Biden administration and if things go wrong one of their supporters may be sitting in the White House.

So the good news is that we can stop the actual creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

The bad news is that, regardless of how things turn out in the short run, that we need to embark on an intensive defense independence program.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Leaders Must Explicitly Restore Balance - Hostage Driven Distortion Disaster Now

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 18:11:53 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Leaders Must Explicitly Restore Balance - Hostage Driven Distortion Disaster Now
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 August 2025

"…30. It is important to note that if the social ethos were indeed such that the majority of the public believed that it was right to pay any price to release a kidnapped soldier, this would raise a significant question mark regarding Israel's ability to survive in the area in which it is located.
Chapter Fifteen • Kidnappings as a Strategic Threat
Committee to Examine the Events of the 2006 Lebanon Campaign - Winograd Commission - Second Lebanon War - Final Report Volume I
Shevat 5768 January 2008

When the Winograd Commission made this warning almost 17 years ago, the "price" our enemies charged for releasing hostages was the release of terrorists.

Today the "cost" embraced by well-meaning but profoundly shortsighted "deal at any cost" Israelis is to provide Hamas the opportunity, from Gaza, to serve as the bridgehead in an apocalyptic war involving forces and nations who identities we are unable to accurately predict today.

My best guess is that the Israelis striking next week won't have the power, despite the heavy media support, to give Hamas a victory.

But I fear that they may succeed, given the orientation of the IDF COS, to impact how our war against Hamas continues, in ways that will cost us dearly.

In anticipation of IDF rules of engagement geared to rule out the possibility of wounding hostages, Hamas has prepared traps and developed methods of operation which will kill and wound many hundreds - if not more -of our soldiers in Gaza.

Don't be surprised to find fresh hostages taken thanks to our handicapped rules of engagement.

And its not just our casualties.

Instead of a brutally quick end to the Gaza war we could readily find ourselves creeping along at a pace which loses President Trump's support for the endeavor.

This week Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that the elected government - not the military - sets policy.

I hope and pray that Mr. Netanyahu has the will to set the policy that our soldiers, and their victory, has top priority.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Winograd Commission warned against paying any price for hostages

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 16:14:26 -0400

Winograd Commission warned against paying any price for hostages

30. It is important to note that if the social ethos were indeed such that the majority of the public believed that it was right to pay any price to release a kidnapped soldier, this would raise a significant question mark regarding Israel's ability to survive in the area in which it is located. The broad and sincere public support for the families' pain is not the same as the belief that the right thing for Israel is to act to release the kidnapped under any conditions and at any cost. We are not here to describe the Israeli ethos and certainly not to judge it. In fact, it is not at all clear that there is a single Israeli ethos that can be described simply. Israeli society is very diverse, and it has many sub-communities, some of which have a different ethos, or at least different parts of an ethos, than other groups in Israel. This diversity is also a given that is essential for strategic assessments in Israel to take into account.

Chapter Fifteen • Kidnappings as a Strategic Threat

Committee to Examine the Events of the 2006 Lebanon Campaign - Winograd Commission - Second Lebanon War - Final Report Volume I
Shevat 5768 January 2008
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Spead the word: Gazans - Don't Sacrifice Your Kids to the Human Shield Moloch!

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 10:39:40 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Spead the word: Gazans - Don't Sacrifice Your Kids to the
Human Shield Moloch!
Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 August 2025

JOIN THE CALL AGAINST CHILD SACRIFICE!

Please reach out to everyone you have contact with who has a presence in the
media and/or social media - regardless of their stand on Israel - to call on
Gazans to choose life for their children.

Soon the IDF will be calling on Gazan civilians to evacuate to safety from
Hamas controlled areas.

Gazan parents will have to decide between evacuating their families to
safety or sacrificing their kids to the Hamas Human Shield Moloch.

Now is the time for anyone who has a scintilla of moral judgement to take a
clear and vocal stand against Gazan parents who choose not to evacuate to
safety.

Taking a stand against the morally repulsive act of child sacrifice in no
way implies endorsement of Israel's operations.

You can proclaim "from the river to the sea Palestine will be free" and
still condemn Gazans who knowingly choose to sacrifice their children as
human shields for Hamas instead of evacuating to safety.

This is not the time for silence.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Prof. Azar Gat of INSS warns of Consequences of IDF Withdrawal From Gaza

Sun, 03 Aug 2025 18:08:56 -0400

Professor Azar Gat of INSS and TAU warns of Consequences of IDF Withdrawal
From Gaza

After Israel withdraws from the area, vast segments of Hamas's subterranean
networks are likely to remain intact. Moreover, new tunnels will almost
certainly be dug. These networks will pose a continued challenge to the
outposts the IDF is building in the security buffer zone along and inside
the Gaza border to protect Israeli communities around Gaza, and might even
enable raids on the communities themselves. Although not necessarily on the
scale of October 7, such incursions would still represent an ever-present
security threat. The fierce fighting in recent weeks around the underground
system in Beit Hanoun, right on the border, is a living reminder of this.

Most importantly, the remnants of Hamas's vast underground network that will
be rebuilt, even if partially, as well as new branches that will be dug,
will continue to serve Hamas in concealing its fighters, headquarters,
warehouses, and reconstructed missile workshops throughout the Gaza Strip.
The problem for the IDF is how to detect and locate these forces and
facilities in the subterranean spaces. Meanwhile, the rocket threat will
also resume - for both harassment and deterrence.

This is the difference between the Gaza arena and those of Lebanon and the
West Bank, which are often cited as supposedly relevant analogies. A
post-war Palestinian government in the Gaza Strip that is not Hamas -
whether the Palestinian Authority or a "technocratic government" - is highly
desirable for Israel for many reasons. However, such a government's ability
to militarily confront Hamas - even to the extent currently seen in the West
Bank - does not really exist, and the subterranean factor compounds the
challenge significantly. Israeli airstrikes and ground raids will face
similar obstacles to those now seen in the Gaza Strip - and even more so
once Hamas regains strength - requiring large-scale campaigns and battles.

All these factors must be considered in any discussion about ending the war
in the Gaza Strip and implementing an Israeli withdrawal.

Excerpt from: What Have We Not Yet Grasped About the Strategic Implications
of Gaza's Underground Challenge
Professor Azar Gat INSS Insight No. 2021, August 3, 2025
https://www.inss.org.il/publication/gaza-tunnels/

Professor Azar Gat is the Academic Advisor to the Executive Director of
INSS. He is the incumbent of the Ezer Weitzman Chair of National Security
and Head of the International and Executive MA Programs in Security and
Diplomacy in the School of Political Science, Government and International
Affairs at Tel Aviv University.