IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Policymakers Beware: Iran and Its Allies Are Racing Up the Learning Curve - Simply Intercepting Their Attacks Is Not The Solution

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:48:51 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Policymakers Beware: Iran and Its Allies Are Racing Up
the Learning Curve - Simply Intercepting Their Attacks Is Not The Solution
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 18 April 2024

At this very moment, a team of top Iranian engineers is burning the midnight
oil, studying how to overcome the mechanical and other failures that caused
half of the missiles they launched to fail.

Another team of Iranian experts is reviewing how most of the remaining
missiles were intercepted and also how some succeeded in reaching their
targets.

Since the start of the war, Hezbollah has been carefully monitoring every
move of the IDF in its ever-escalating "not-yet-war" with the Jewish State,
so that it can constantly enhance its capabilities in battle.

In some instances, Hezbollah has used these enhanced capabilities in attacks
whose sophistication surprised us. But that's only the "tip of the iceberg."
We are painfully clueless about what else they have already developed or
will in the future.

And of course, all this time Iran and its allies are literally counting how
many of each type of interceptor Israel has launched (both from the ground
and from airborne platforms) in order to estimate how many we still have,
after taking into account their estimates of the quantities of new
interceptors Israel has added to its stocks since October 7th.

It is critical that our policymakers recognize we are in a dynamic situation
in a race against the clock.

Let me take this to an extreme: even if we possessed unlimited funds and a
magic tube into which you insert a billion dollars at one end and all the
interceptors we used this week miraculously popped out of the other end, it
would still be a critical error to apply the "kick the can down the road"
approach, which the Iron Dome facilitated as a policy towards Hamas.

Because Iran and its allies are racing up the learning curve, so that two,
three, or even four billion dollars a round won't suffice.

And since there is no magic tube, and replenishing the billion dollars of
interceptors is going to take time, our race against the clock is even more
critical.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Misconstrued Policy Consequences of Thwarted Iranian Attack: Israeli

Sun, 14 Apr 2024 09:51:28 -0400

Misconstrued Policy Consequences of Thwarted Iranian Attack: Israeli
Talking Heads Push for Palestinian State in Wake of Iranian Attack
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 14 April 2024

Like a broken record.

On October 8th, Israeli talking heads shared their hopes that the October
7th massacre would ultimately force a desperate Israel to accept the
creation of a sovereign Palestinian state, which these talking heads were
certain was the path to utopian peace.

These same talking heads are now hoping that the participation of the United
States and others in the defense of the Jewish State against the massive
Iranian attack will lead to the same result.

To be clear: I don't claim to know how much of the fantastic cooperation we
just received was intended to defend us and how much it was to avoid a
scenario in which the Jericho missiles with nuclear warheads would be
launched from the submarines we have now positioned near Iran ["according to
foreign reports"], but neither is relevant when considering how the historic
event we witnessed this sleepless night should impact Israeli policy.

A sovereign Palestinian state remains an existential threat.

Kicking the "Hamas can" down the road by indefinitely postponing invading
Rafah and taking care of the Philadelphi Corridor can have existential
consequences.

Kicking the "Hezbollah can" down the road by fantasizing that having
Hezbollah move back a few kilometers somehow magically ends the existential
threat of the hundreds of thousands of rockets and guided missiles Hezbollah
has deployed north of the Litani remains just that: a dangerous fantasy.

HEZBULLAH IS READY TO LAUNCH A HUNDRED TIMES AS MANY ROCKETS AND MISSILES AS
WERE INTERCEPTED FROM IRAN!!!!!!!

We should most certainly appreciate and treasure the help we received in the
historic event we just experienced.

But the extension of that help, as important as it was, in no way changes
the very serious consequences the Jewish State may face if it succumbs to
the "two-state solution" fantasy or fails to get the job done in the Gaza
Strip and indefinitely postpones addressing the hundreds of thousands of
rockets and guided missiles Hezbollah has deployed north of the Litani.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary INSS uses assumed nonexistent ladder - and worse "The Day After": The Development of the War Requires Brave Decisions

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 10:42:32 -0400

Weekly Commentary INSS uses assumed nonexistent ladder - and worse "The Day
After": The Development of the War Requires Brave Decisions
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 April 2024

How did the philosopher get out of the pit?

He assumed a ladder and climbed out.

"The Day After": The Development of the War Requires Brave Decisions
Policy Recommendation by The Institute for National Security Studies , April
12, 2024
https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-day-after-2024/

does this and worse.

And as the top think tank in Israel, this is particularly unfortunate.

The following are excerpts with observations

Chapter 1: Strategic Framing

The Central Idea:

The rapid achievement of the goals of the war by pursuing a quick hostage
deal (while being willing to stop the war) and taking advantage of the
cessation included in such a deal for the following purposes:

...2. Delivering a massive influx of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and
distributing it through local Fatah entities, connected to the Palestinian
Authority and supported for their protection by Arab and international
coalition forces.

[IMRA: The INSS never addresses how to avoid these various forces become
human shields for Hamas and others attacking Israel and/or preparing to
attack Israel.]

3. Implementing a ceasefire in the northern arena, which will be stipulated
in understandings regarding the withdrawal of the capabilities of the Radwan
force from the border region and effective international monitoring (with an
emphasis on the removal of infiltrating forces and anti-tank missiles).

[IMRA: The INSS fails to address the existential threat in the North - the
rockets and missiles located well beyond the "border region" which have the
potential, thanks to their large numbers and that many have guidance
systems, to overwhelm defenses of many strategic Israeli targets.

Chapter 2: "The Day After"-An Alternative to Hamas in the Framework of a New
Regional Architecture

A Renewed Palestinian Authority:
In the context of the Gaza Strip and with a long-term perspective, the
optimal solution for Israel's security is the "renewed" Palestinian
Authority, which would serve as an alternative governmental entity to Hamas.
To be recognized as "renewed," the Palestinian Authority should undergo a
process in which it fulfills the following conditions:
... 2. Cease violence, education for radicalization, and support for
families of terrorists;

[IMRA: A nonexistent ladder. Pay for slay is fundamental to the PA. At
best the money might go through a "social welfare" channel.

Chapter 5: Completing the Military Effort to Dismantle Hamas's Capabilities
... Alternative conditions for action in Rafah (When do we not have to act
there?):
1. Surrender, destruction, or exile of Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif;
2. Surrender of the Hamas battalions.
If these conditions are not met, the required operational achievements are:
1. Targeted elimination of the commanders;
2. Demolition of underground infrastructure (strategic, operational,
economic);
3. Destruction of combat infrastructure: tunnels, firing positions,
operational facilities, launching infrastructure;
4. Blockade of the Philadelphi Corridor and sealing it above and below
ground.
These objectives can be advanced through various methods, including a
different combination of ground maneuver, aerial fire, and special
operations.

...This is an important operation, albeit complex and limited, that can be
implemented in the future as well.

[IMRA: Kicking this can down the road is exactly how we got to this mess in
the first place.]

Chapter 7: Weakening Iran and the Axis of Resistance
... This security reality necessitates pushing the military capabilities of
the Radwan force away from the border and stabilizing the new situation
through a framework of understandings with the state of Lebanon, and
indirectly with Hezbollah, based on agreements that will be achieved through
American mediation and oversight.

[IMRA: Again the INSS fails to address the existential threat in the North
- the rockets and missiles located well beyond the "border region" which
have the potential, thanks to their large numbers and that many have
guidance systems, to overwhelm defenses of many strategic Israeli targets.

Chapter 8: Preserving and Strengthening the Special Relationship with the
United States

... The American government is currently focusing its efforts to promote ...
the establishment of a Palestinian state... the security and diplomatic
discourse must be enhanced through a professional, accurate, reliable, and
discreet dialogue that also addresses the government's interests and
maintains its attention
toward the security concerns and needs of the State of Israel.

[IMRA: The INSS fails to provide any operative suggestions for addressing
Israel's key challenge in dealing with the USA: they want a sovereign
Palestinian state and a sovereign Palestinian state would be an existential
threat for Israel.]
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

English translation of Notice of Turkish Export Restrictions To Israel for Detailed List of 54 Product Groups

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 04:02:29 -0400

English translation of Notice of Turkish Export Restrictions To Israel for Detailed List of 54 Product Groups

Export Restriction to Israel
Turkish Ministry of Trade
09 April 2024
https://www.ticaret.gov.tr/haberler/israile-ihracat-kisitlamasi

The number of our Palestinian brothers who lost their lives is over 33 thousand, and the number of injured is over hundreds of thousands, in the total massacre that Israel has been carrying out indiscriminately in the Gaza Strip for more than 6 months, since October 7, 2023, against innocent Palestinian people and civilian settlements. The majority of them consist of women and children. The Gaza Strip has been destroyed and suffered great destruction.

The Palestinian people, who are trying to hold on to life in the Gaza Strip, are struggling with hunger and all kinds of poverty in an unprecedented way in our age, and their access to the most basic foodstuffs, medical aid and supplies is prevented by Israel. Deaths from hunger are increasing and epidemics are spreading.

Since October 7, 2023, Turkey has been carrying out political and diplomatic efforts, both before the parties, in the international arena and within the Islamic world, to stop the conflicts, to prevent human loss and physical destruction, to first seek a permanent ceasefire and diplomatic solution, and to rebuild Gaza. He did it at the highest level.

After Israel's attacks began, Turkey came to the aid of Gaza and its people and delivered tens of thousands of tons of aid by ships and planes, especially food, health, medical aid and the evacuation of thousands of patients, and is one of the two leading countries in the world in this field. has happened.

However, Israel continues to flagrantly violate international law and ignores the international community's numerous calls for political and legal ceasefires and uninterrupted humanitarian aid.

Unfortunately, Israel has not implemented any decisions taken in this direction by the United Nations Security Council, the UN General Assembly, the UN Human Rights Council and the International Court of Justice, which are the basic building blocks of international law and order.
In this context, United Nations Security Council resolutions 2728, 2720 and 2712, Resolutions ES-10/21 and ES-10/22 of the United Nations General Assembly, United Nations Human Rights Council resolution A/HRC55/L.30, Interim injunction decisions dated 26 January and 28 March 2024 taken by the International Court of Justice in The Hague within the scope of the case filed against Israel for allegedly violating the genocide convention, It clearly obliged Israel to reach a ceasefire and, in full cooperation with the UN, to allow the uninterrupted provision of all basic humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including the medical supplies and health services they need.

In particular, the decisions of the UN Security Council and the International Court of Justice are legally binding.

Türkiye has repeatedly stated that it will monitor the implementation of all these decisions.

In this regard, Turkey has decided to restrict the export of products to Israel under the product groups specified in the Annex, as of April 9, 2024, in the first stage. The requirements of this decision will be immediately implemented by the Ministry of Commerce.

This decision will remain in force until Israel, within the framework of its obligations arising from international law, declares an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and allows a sufficient and uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.

In fact, our country has not and has not allowed the sale of any product or service that can be used for military purposes to Israel since a long time ago.

Within the framework of the grave situation in the Gaza Strip, our call to all members of the international community is to do their part to ensure that Israel complies with its obligations arising from international law.

As the state and people of the Republic of Turkey, we will continue to stand by and support Palestine and its people, as we have done so far.

It is announced to the public with respect.

ANNEX: PRODUCT GROUPS WHOSE EXPORTS ARE RESTRICTED TO ISRAEL

1. Aluminum Profiles
2. Aluminum Wires
3. dyes
4. Copper Profiles, Rods and Wires
5. Concrete Mixers
6. Steel Pipes And Fittings
7. Steel Wire Rod
8. Steel Containers and Warehouses
9. Steel Bridge Part
10.Steel Towers
11.Steel Profiles
12.Cement
13.Blocks and Slabs for Construction from Cement, Concrete or Artificial Stone
14.All Construction Materials Made of Iron and Steel
15.All Iron-Steel Wires
16.excavators
17.Electric cables
18.Electric panels
19.tiles
20.Fiberoptic Cables and Electrical Conductors
21.Forklifts
22.Granite
23.Rope and Cables
24.Hardware Products
25.Hydraulic Oils
26.Rebar
27.Construction Machinery
28.Construction Insulation Materials
29.Glasses Used in Construction
30.Chemical Compounds
31.Chemical Fertilizers
32.Clinker
33.Buckets, Ladles, Shovels, Grapples and Hooks
34.Sulfur
35.Mineral oils
36.Roller Chains
37.Marble
38.Metal Processing Machinery
39.Chemicals Used in Processing Metals
40.Mineral Fertilizers
41.Engine Oils
42.Pallets
43.Plastic Pipes
44.Sandwich Panels
45.ceramics
46.Solvent Dyes
47.Wire Drawing Machines
48.Sawing Machines
49.bricks
50.Aviation Gasoline and Jet Fuel
51.varnishes
52.cranes
53.Adhesives and Glues
54.Flat Steel Products
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Mr. Netanyahu: Share Some Evidence That We Are Actually Preparing to Evacuate Rafah

Sun, 07 Apr 2024 10:39:36 -0400

Mr. Netanyahu: Share Some Evidence That We Are Actually Preparing to
Evacuate Rafah
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 7 April 2024

Prime Minister Netanyahu promised that we would go into Rafah after Hamas
responded to Israel's retreat today from Khan Yunis with a five-rocket
barrage.

It could very well be that there is logic to the retreat and that Binyamin
Netanyahu will honor his promise to complete the war against Hamas in Rafah.

But talk is cheap.

The time has come, after months of talking, to share some credible evidence
that we are actually making the preparations to evacuate the civilians from
Rafah.

If we are actually making preparations, this is a relatively easy task.

Serious preparations aren't just a bunch of maps with arrows.

Tents, sanitation, water-you name it.

If we are really putting together supplies for over a million people,
there's a story for the media about the warehouses full of equipment or the
team scrambling to amass equipment from around the world.

There's a story of complaints regarding whose budget is covering the
expenses and demands for extra funding.

And it doesn't end with supplies for the over a million people being
instructed to walk to safety from Rafah.

There's also a behind-the-scenes story about preparations to quickly screen
the over a million departing civilians so that the Hamas army doesn't escape
from Rafah with the civilians. But it may be that, for operational reasons,
this needs to remain a secret.

But if Israel has hundreds of thousands of tents and huge quantities of
sanitary facilities to show, that's hardly a military secret.

So, Mr. Netanyahu: with all my heart, I want to believe that this time you
are telling the truth. But you need to have your team do something to gain
our confidence that we won't end up being fools for thinking that you
haven't thrown in the towel.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Ex-Brass Dominance In War Cabinet Handicaps Decision Making

Sat, 06 Apr 2024 18:53:32 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Ex-Brass Dominance In War Cabinet Handicaps Decision
Making
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 April 2024

I find no comfort When I read that all the top brass agreed on a certain
critical policy issue.

Instead, it causes me great concern,

Because it tells us that all the people sitting around the table have the
same mindset.

And that's the absolutely wrong way to be sure that policy decisions are
based on a thorough consideration of the matter.

Let's not forget that the top brass thought:

1. We could trade gizmos for the Golan with the idea that on "judgement day"
we would race up the Golan and everything would be OK.

2. Leaving the Gaza Strip would improve our security.

And there's a lot more examples.

These days the brass and other security officials openly show their contempt
for pesky questions from ministers and MKs who didn't serve as senior
officers in the IDF.

They are joined by talking heads who ridicule these mere "civilians" for
having the temerity to ask questions and the chutzpah to demand to seriously
participate in the decision making process rather than attend formal
meetings as part of an Amen choir.

But the truth is that Israeli civilians have frequently made better
decisions than the brass on military matters.

Consider a few examples:

Brass opposed building spy satellites:

Ehud Barak and others senior brass strongly opposed Israel building its own
spy satellites - this even though it was already clear that the US could not
be relied upon to fill the gap. Civilian Menachem Begin overruled the brass.
The brass only truly understood why this critical equipment was needed when
the first satellite photograph flashed up on the screen.

Brass opposed acquiring second strike capability:

Ehud Barak took the lead in quashing plans to purchase German subs featuring
launch tubes with an extra large diameter for Jericho missiles. Israel only
received this strategic capability when Germany supplied the first subs for
FREE after German equipment played a key role in the Iraqi missile attacks
against the Jewish State.

Brass opposed opening the Second Lebanon War by destroying Hezbollah's long
range missiles:

The brass wanted to first punish Lebanon by destroying infrastructure but
civilian DM Amir Peretz insisted that the IAF take out the long range
missiles before they began hitting Tel Aviv. This move was essentially the
only correct Israeli decision in the entire war. To hear Peretz describe his
battle with the brass in his own words: http://youtu.be/SM_LMb10qsQ .

Civilian DM Liberman pushed through arming the IDF with precision ground to
ground missiles of various ranges to dramatically enhance our ability to
address many challenges without relying on piloted platforms. This included
top of the line systems that Israel was already supplying to other armies
but the local brass wasn't interested in.

And there are more examples.

In each case civilian "common sense" trumped decades of military training
and experience.

Today the defense establishment is doing everything in its power to skirt
around the military budget policy review committee which Minister of Finance
Bezalel Smotrich insists meet before we lock a huge chunk of our defense
budget on additional F-35s and other jets.

Is there a chance that Smotrich has something to contribute to defense
related matters?

His critics note that Smotrich finessed his time in the hesder program to
get a law degree when he was ostensibly studying in yeshiva but this is not
a reflection on his skills today.

When Smotrich became minister of transportation no one expected him to come
close to filling the boots of "Mr. Herod" - Yisrael Katz.

But it turned out that Smotrich was actually better at the job. And he was
better in part because when he sat at a meeting he did not accept
conventional wisdom and asked a lot of great questions no one in the room
had thought about. Thanks to the implementation of his thinking out of box,
the pace of transportation infrastructure construction took off.

I don't know if he will have the same success studying defense matters.

But I do know that with all the challenges we are facing that it pays to
have a civilian play a key role rather than just a fellow traveler of the
Chief of the General Staff.

The same goes, of course for the very serious and critical decisions which
the Jewish State is facing in the Gaza Strip, North and beyond.

I can appreciate how annoying it is for generals used to giving orders
without getting flak find themselves having to deal with people who
challenge their recommendations and ask uncomfortable questions.

But that is the benefit - not cost - of a democracy.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il