IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Despite Iranian Threats - IDF clears Ali a-Taher ridge

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:06:52 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Despite Iranian Threats - IDF clears Ali a-Taher ridge
Dr. Aaron Lerner 3 September 2026

"Huge news tonight. The IDF cleared the Ali a-Taher ridge. This ridge was built next to Beaufort as a strategic position from which they not only harassed Kiryat Shmona and Metula, but also threatened to conquer the Galilee. We instructed the IDF to clear it. I congratulate the Chief of Staff, the Northern Command Major General, our heroic fighters, they did a wonderful job there. They took out weapons, took out computers, it's in our hands. We eliminated a great many terrorists there, today it can be told. The Ali a-Taher ridge no longer threatens us."
Prime Minister Netanyahu - 3 September 2026

This is huge news for many reasons.

And while, in and of itself, the destruction of this huge Hezbollah underground command post, built at great expense by the Iranians over the course of many years, is a significant achievement, perhaps even more important is that the IDF operation continued unabated until its successful conclusion despite warnings and threats from Teheran to cease and desist.

This development, that Iran no longer can deter Israel, not only illustrates how determined we are to neutralize Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It also shows a critically important sea change in Washington.

A few months ago, if the same scenario were playing out, there would have been a real possibility that President Trump would have applied whatever pressure available on Netanyahu to halt the operation so as not to interfere with American attempts to work things out with Iran.

In fact, there were reports earlier in the Summer, denied by both the White House and Jerusalem, that President Trump asked Netanyahu to delay the operation.

It is public knowledge that the Lebanese Armed Forces failed miserably in the "pilot zones".

Expanding on that program without recognizing this could have doomed Lebanon to remain under Hezbollah control.

But now, just as Israel could not be deterred from clearing out the Ali a-Taher ridge, Israel also can't be deterred from insisting on the challenge in Lebanon being addressed with eyes open.

This is good news for the future of Lebanon.

Weekly Commentary: Shas Thinks Its Army Serving Voters Will Forget

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:22:53 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Shas Thinks Its Army Serving Voters Will Forget
Dr. Aaron Lerner 27 August 2026

I know I’m a bit emotional.

Each time I come out of the HaShalom train station in Tel Aviv I have two reactions.

First, I look up.

I see the extraordinary skyline. Building after building, each with its own beautiful design.

And I am overwhelmed with pride.

This is what we have built - and are building!

Then I remember what I saw when I just passed through the train station.

The walls inside are plastered with memorial stickers.

Young faces.

Soldiers who are no longer with us.

And I think about the price.

"Here’s what we accomplished.

And here’s the price.**

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that our terrible losses couldn't have been reduced.

Just that, regardless of how smart and nimble we are, our very survival ultimately hinges on our willingness to make terrible sacrifices when necessary.

I think that’s a winning message for some politician in this election.

Because this election we cannot afford to forget this painful reality.

And apparently Shas is counting on us forgetting.

Shas opened its election campaign with an extraordinarily well-produced video.

A father is preparing to make Kiddush Friday night with his wife and his yeshiva-student son.

But the father pauses for a moment in hope.

His other son is still making his way home.

He is a soldier.

Finally the soldier comes through the door.

His father embraces him.

His yeshiva-student brother tells him that he prayed for him and for the soldiers.

The soldier thanks his brother for learning Torah.

Beautiful?

Touching?

Coming from Shas, insulting.

Because while Shas asks us to be moved by the soldier coming home for Shabbat, its own spiritual leader, Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, has been telling yeshiva students what to do when they receive draft notices.

Don’t go.

Tear them up.

He even proudly related that his own grandson received a draft notice, tore it up and threw it into the toilet - just as Rabbi Yosef had instructed him.

This as the Shas politicians have been in the forefront of efforts to legalize what would effectively waive the obligation to serve the country for anyone recorded as learning in a yeshiva (I use the term "recorded" intentionally).

Think about the message in that campaign video.

One son goes to the army.

One son never will serve.

Only one of those sons can be ordered into Gaza.

Only one can be sent into Lebanon.

Only one can be called from his wife and children for another round of reserve duty.

Only one may become another face on a future sticker on the walls of HaShalom Station.

This isn’t an argument against Torah study as an integral part of an individual's life or of our collective existence.

It is an argument against a political party embracing soldiers in a campaign video while fighting to ensure that many tens of thousands of young men do not have to join them.

The reaction to the Shas video shows that I’m hardly alone in finding this offensive.

Bereaved family members were among those who reacted with fury.

One bereaved father put the contradiction in brutally simple terms: while some fathers can still embrace the son returning home from the army, many fathers since October 7 cannot.

That is the reality Shas apparently hopes a touching Kiddush scene will make us forget.

I don’t want to forget.

I want to remember both images every time I leave HaShalom Station.

"Look up at what we built.

Look at the walls and remember what it cost."

There is something profoundly wrong with asking the people carrying the burden - and the families paying the ultimate price - to applaud a political fiction in which refusing a draft notice and answering one are presented as equivalent contributions.

Shas knows it has a problem.

Otherwise, it wouldn’t have opened its campaign with a soldier rushing home for Kiddush.

The question is whether the huge number of traditionally Shas voters whose families serve in the IDF also feel that this video is enough to make them forget.

This election, no one cannot afford to forget.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Uranium Metal Must Be Removed From Syria

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 15:03:35 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Uranium Metal Must Be Removed From Syria
Dr. Aaron Lerner . 19 August 2026
“Syrian officials said Tuesday the (uranium) material would remain in the country albeit under IAEA safeguards.”
Syria Takes Steps To Come Clean On Nuclear Past - Laurence Norman and Jared Malsin, reporting in The Wall Street Journal, Page A6, 19 August 2026

Absolutely not acceptable!

As Barak Ravid (Axios) and other sources have revealed, Syria AGREED TO ALL THE MATERIAL BEING REMOVED FROM SYRIA.

This is a deal Israel began pushing the moment a post-Assad regime was in place.

It was brokered through President Trump.

When the talks were launched, the new regime did not even know that the material existed!

To be clear: Israel insisted that the material be removed.

When Israel detected movements near the site where the material was stored, the Trump team convinced Israel that it would seal the deal so that Israel did not need to go in to remove the material by itself.

I want to emphasize this: we have a CRISIS NOW because we decided to rely on the Trump team’s word.

So now, suddenly, the new Syrian regime refuses to honor its commitment to let the IAEA team remove the tons of uranium from Syria.

Uranium which it has absolutely no ability to do anything legal with.

I do not know, and frankly do not care, if Mr. Trump’s BFF Erdogan is behind the Syrian change of heart or Ahmed al-Sharaa decided on his own to renege on the deal.
Either way, this is not something which can be ignored.

Not by Israel and ALSO not by President Trump.

It is an incredibly dangerous development in Syria and a catastrophic precedent for the treatment of U.S.-brokered deals worldwide.

There is no time to waste.

The Trump team - possibly Mr. Trump himself - must get the agreed arrangement back on track.

Weekly Commentary: Jared Kushner – Gaza Needs Real Plan – Not BS

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 00:29:45 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Jared Kushner – Gaza Needs Real Plan – Not BS
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 August 2026

I hope that this message reaches Jared Kushner before he visits Israel to discuss Gaza.

The Gaza RoadMap is a farce based on the assertion that the goal of the Gazans – including Hamas – is an “end to the cycle of violence” which isn’t predicated on Israel no longer existing, while Israel’s enemies, who are senior members of the group behind the RoadMap, will take a purely neutral role in the implementation of the RoadMap.

Back to the drawing board.

With some simple principles:
1. All weapons, with the exception of a limited number of handguns for specially vetted security forces, are to be immediately removed from the Gaza Strip.
2. Gaza construction activity is to be based on metal, precast cement, and other modular approaches to keep the use of divertible cement at building sites to an absolute minimum.
3. All industrial activity which is potentially dual-use is to take place in an isolated industrial zone, with provisions for 24/7 monitoring of production and inspection of the flow of goods to ensure that weapons are not manufactured in the industrial zone.
4. A ban on civilian paramilitary training of any form.

The above limitations don’t turn Gaza into a prison.

Gaza can be rebuilt.

Gazans can be gainfully employed.

They are free to do pretty much everything except prepare to destroy Israel.

Doesn’t that make more sense than a plan doomed to failure based on wishful thinking?

Warning: Netanyahu’s Mouthpiece Supports Gaza RoadMap?

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:58:56 -0400

Warning: Netanyahu’s Mouthpiece Supports Gaza RoadMap?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 10 August 2026

Amit Segal, known for his close ties to PM Netanyahu, added the following comment to his exclusive Channel 12 interview yesterday with Nickolay Mladenov, Director General of the Board of Peace:

“My Take: they won’t get every weapon.
But so long as Israel doesn’t have to withdraw completely and keeps the freedom to go back in when it needs to, 20,000 disabled rifles are worth entertaining the process.”

It should be noted that while the RoadMap only refers to the amorphous “decommissioning” of weapons and equipment (in some international conflicts “decommissioning” meant no more than storing), Mladenov claimed in the interview that the RoadMap provides to “ultimately render unusable” the weapons and equipment.

Segal declined to follow up on this discrepancy.

With all due respect to Segal, his conditional support of the RoadMap is farcical.

“so long as Israel … keeps the freedom to go back in when it needs to”

With international forces deployed in Gaza as well as various other groups - plus enemies of Israel playing a role in determining whether Israel “needs to” invade Gaza (not to mention that we have no idea who will be sitting in the White House after Trump), it’s ridiculous to think that, if the RoadMap is fully implemented, we will be able to invade “when we need to”.

Weekly Commentary: The Gaza Roadmap Betrays Trump’s Demilitarization Plan: Israel Must Reject It Now

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 15:53:03 -0400

Weekly Commentary: The Gaza Roadmap Betrays Trump’s Demilitarization Plan: Israel Must Reject It Now

Dr. Aaron Lerner 5 August, 2026

Someone appears to be telling President Trump that Israel’s acceptance of his September 2025 20-point plan obligates it to accept the July 2026 Roadmap.

It does not.

The Roadmap does not implement President Trump’s plan. It rewrites its core security provisions.

President Trump’s 20-point plan required the destruction of all military, terrorist and offensive infrastructure - including tunnels and weapons-production facilities - and that weapons be rendered permanently unusable under independent monitoring. In practice, that means destroying them or removing them from Gaza. That was the deal.

The July 2026 Roadmap says something fundamentally different.

Instead of destruction, heavy weapons, weapons-production facilities, depots and tunnels are to be “decommissioned and stored.” At the end of the process, only the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) “shall hold, store or control weapons in Gaza.” Nothing is transferred to Israel or some other responsible country outside of Gaza. The weapons and the means to produce them remain inside Gaza under a new Palestinian authority.

That is not implementation of President Trump’s plan. It is a material rewrite of its central security provisions.

Responsibility for this dilution does not rest with President Trump. He is busy running the United States. The body established to implement his plan - the Board of Peace and its associated mechanisms - appears to have pursued an agreement with Hamas at almost any price. In doing so, it accepted terms that leave both the weapons and the means to manufacture them inside Gaza under Palestinian institutional control.

If President Trump is fully briefed on how far the Roadmap departs from his original 20-point plan, there is every reason to believe he would support Israel’s rejection of these provisions. The difference between destroying weapons-production facilities and storing them under NCAG is not a drafting detail. It is the difference between genuine demilitarization and managed rearmament under a different name.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has often handled difficult American initiatives by buying time, hoping that the initiative would ultimately self-destruct. Waiting until after the November midterm elections may seem tactically attractive. It would be a mistake.

The architects of the Roadmap are already working to create facts on the ground in Gaza, including preparations for the deployment of international forces and other measures that will be difficult to reverse. Once those arrangements are in place, replacing this diluted version with the original terms of President Trump’s plan will become far more difficult.

Israel should make its position clear - and now. It accepted President Trump’s September 2025 plan. It did not accept a later document that replaces destruction with storage and leaves the instruments of war inside Gaza.

A buyer confronted with a bait-and-switch does not accept the rewritten contract. Neither should Israel.