IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il Middle East News & Analysis en-US 1570495236 1570495236 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Capalon Internet 2.0 imra@netvision.net.il (Aaron Lerner) News & Analysis IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il https://www.imra.org.il/imra_sm.png 144 97 Weekly Commentary: Defense Without Offense Recipe For Disaster https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73584 <p>Weekly Commentary: Defense Without Offense Recipe For Disaster<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 October, 2019</p> <p>Iran's strike against Saudi targets was certainly stunning.</p> <p>And as is unfortunately typical, this is yet another case that the military<br /> apparently was only able to appreciate what an enemy could do with a<br /> collection of technology they were known to posses AFTER the enemy<br /> DEMONSTRATED what it could do.</p> <p>I daresay that the apparently one-dimensional response to this development<br /> reflects this.</p> <p>I term the response one-dimensional because we are apparently going to pour<br /> billions of dollars into detecting and intercepting the equipment that was<br /> employed in the attack against the Saudis without any significant investment<br /> in upgrading our ability to carry out offensive operations to address the<br /> threat that the Jewish State faces.</p> <p>This is pretty much what happened with Iron Dome.</p> <p>It could have been used to reduce our exposure to attack as we carried out<br /> operations decimating our enemy's offensive capabilities but instead Iron<br /> Dome has acted as a crutch to enable us to indefinitely postpone addressing<br /> ever growing security threats.</p> <p>Suffice it to say that even in an ideal world, a detection/interception<br /> system can only intercept as many incoming platforms as it has interceptors.<br /> And in the case of enemy platforms that feature guidance systems every<br /> incoming platform must be intercepted.</p> <p>So the a one-dimensional detection/interception response would be doomed to<br /> failure.</p> <p>Let's not forget: we are talking about platforms that are delivering<br /> conventional warheads.</p> <p>The damage that x kilograms of explosives delivered by these particular<br /> precision guided Iranian platforms can also be caused by an equal quantity<br /> of explosives delivered by other precision guided platforms launched from<br /> Lebanon or even the Gaza Strip.</p> <p>Yes. We need to invest heavily today in upgrading the IDF.</p> <p>But a holistic approach is crucial.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Tue, 08 Oct 2019 00:40:36 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73584 US Ambassador Friedman: Israeli Pubic Can't Have A Say In Major Matters (Via Elections) https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73583 <p>US Ambassador Friedman: Israeli Pubic Can't Have A Say In Major Matters (Via <br /> Elections) <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 October, 2019 <br /> <br /> Makor Rishon reporter Michael Tuchfeld: Wouldn't it be more appropriate to <br /> publish the "Deal of the Century" before the elections in Israel, so that <br /> the Israeli voter can know what is in the offing? <br /> <br /> US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman: No. I don't think so. We maintain <br /> that this is a matter of the long term. That it should be considered in an <br /> apolitical discerning and encompassing atmosphere, because Israeli long term <br /> interests are involved. During an election campaign, and without being <br /> critical towards politicians, the candidates always seek short term <br /> opportunities to convince their electorate and get elected. This is not a <br /> healthy atmosphere for carrying out discussions of such long term serious <br /> matters." <br /> Makor Rishon 4 October, 2019 <br /> <br /> Put in plain English: according to this approach the citizens of Israel <br /> should NOT have the right to weigh in on "long term serious matters". <br /> <br /> When they vote for a party they should be clueless what the leadership of <br /> the party they vote for actually intends to do after they are elected. <br /> <br /> In all due respect to Ambassador Friedman, I wonder what he would think if <br /> an ambassador serving in Washington would suggest denying Americans the <br /> opportunity to have their say on "long term serious matters". <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sat, 05 Oct 2019 22:45:58 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73583 Weekly Commentary: Kick The Can? Former COS Eisenkot's Guidelines for Israel's National Security Strategy https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73582 <p>Weekly Commentary: Kick The Can? Former COS Eisenkot's Guidelines for <br /> Israel's National Security Strategy <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 4 October, 2019 <br /> <br /> Here's the description of Guidelines for Israel's National Security <br /> Strategy - Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Gadi Eisenkot and Col. (res.) Gabi Siboni <br /> (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) <br /> https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus160-EisenkotSiboni.pdf <br /> <br /> "Israeli military experts examine the current map of Israel's threats and <br /> propose principles to address them as the basis for a comprehensive national <br /> security strategy, emphasizing the importance of the "campaign between <br /> wars." <br /> Gadi Eisenkot, who served as IDF Chief of Staff from 2014 until 2019, is <br /> currently a military fellow at The Washington Institute. <br /> Gabi Siboni is a senior research fellow at the Institute for National <br /> Security Studies. <br /> <br /> Here we are facing a tremendous security challenge whose details cannot be <br /> shared yet with the Israeli public. Suffice it to say that there are major <br /> elements of this challenge that developed thanks to a "quiet for quiet" <br /> (Q4Q) policy both vis-a-vis Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Under Q4Q the enemy <br /> can literally make any and every build up in forces and capabilities as long <br /> as it doesn't use them yet against the Jewish State. <br /> <br /> Q4Q aka kick the "enemy force/capabilities build up" can down the road <br /> policy is thus something that one would expect to be subject to considerable <br /> examination and discussion in "Guidelines for Israel's National Security <br /> Strategy ". This particularly in light of the dramatic exception recently <br /> made to Q4Q in Syria and Iraq. <br /> <br /> Unfortunately, instead of a serious discussion there is this one-liner: <br /> <br /> "Proactive damage to the enemy's force buildup. Israel can initiate actions <br /> to damage the enemy's force buildup through both the campaign between the <br /> wars and as part of a wider campaign aimed at thwarting the enemy's <br /> strategic capabilities" <br /> <br /> I am disappointed and concerned. <br /> <br /> I am disappointed that the man who served as IDF Chief of Staff from 2014 <br /> until 2019 doesn't use this opportunity to address a policy that now could <br /> cost us dearly. <br /> <br /> I am concerned because if Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Gadi Eisenkot doesn't apparently <br /> feel that Q4Q is a problem, that the people now in charge may share this <br /> view. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 04 Oct 2019 14:19:26 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73582 Commentary: Is Time Running Out For Jonathan Pollard? https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73581 Thu, 03 Oct 2019 16:51:29 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73581 Yisrael Beiteinu Spokesman: Even if Religion State Demands Met Won't Sit With Ultra Orthodox https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73580 <p>Yisrael Beiteinu Spokesman: Even if Religion State Demands Met Won't Sit <br /> With Ultra Orthodox <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 September 2019 <br /> <br /> The following is a translation of a Hebrew SMS exchange today. <br /> <br /> IMRA: Is it true to say that if the right-wing "bloc" adopts the principles <br /> of passing the Recruitment Law, along with English and mathematics studies <br /> in all the educational institutions in Israel that Yisrael Beiteinu is <br /> willing to join a government formed by that "bloc"? <br /> <br /> Arye Vishnevetski, spokesperson for Yisrael Beiteinu: No. Only the unity <br /> government - Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud, Blue and White <br /> <br /> IMRA: I want to be precise: even if the ultra-Orthodox accept the demands of <br /> Yisrael Beiteinu do you rule out joining a government that is not a unity <br /> government? <br /> <br /> Vishnevetski: Everything is clear by us. Everything we said before the <br /> election we say even now. There is no change. Only a unity government <br /> <br /> IMRA: In an interview today on Radio Rekah, Liberman said: "There are no <br /> prerequisites. If the Likud contacts us officially, we are ready to <br /> negotiate with them." <br /> <br /> Vishnevetski: One sentence cannot be taken from an entire interview. <br /> "Lieberman also spoke on radio radio: If there is a formal appeal, Yisrael <br /> Beiteinu will negotiate with the Likud only and not with the halakhic bloc <br /> Netanyahu brings with him. There will be no change in the party's position, <br /> which will not sit with the ultra-Orthodox or the Messianic (and the Joint <br /> [Arab Party] or Meretz). We will not give up our demands on religion and <br /> state, security, immigration and absorption, and only within the framework <br /> of a liberal national unity government." <br /> <br /> IMRA: I understood from this that the negotiations are with Likud to <br /> summarize the fulfillment of the requirements regarding religion and state. <br /> And, as the saying goes, if the haredim agree then they are no longer the <br /> same haredim and it is possible to sit with them. <br /> <br /> Vishnevetski: In short, I sent everything in black and white. You can also <br /> look at Liberman's Facebook. Nice weekend and a happy new year <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Thu, 26 Sep 2019 20:03:25 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73580 Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu Don't Screw Around - Give Chance To Forming National Camp Coalition Government https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73579 <p>Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu Don't Screw Around - Give Chance To Forming<br /> National Camp Coalition Government<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 September, 2019</p> <p>Dear Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu,</p> <p>As the leader of the national camp, you have an obligation to make a good<br /> faith effort to try to form a ruling coalition of the national camp.</p> <p>And such a coalition could be formed if Yisrael Beiteinu, that is part of<br /> the national camp, joins the coalition.</p> <p>Yes. There's bad blood between you and Liberman.</p> <p>Yes. There's a narrative that Liberman's motives begin and end with making<br /> sure you aren't prime minister.</p> <p>But that's not the explanation Liberman has given for his actions.</p> <p>He's cited religion-state issues. And the truth is that since the<br /> elections the red lines that he's mentioned on religion-state issues are<br /> something that a round table of representatives of Yisrael Beiteinu and the<br /> religious parties could resolve.</p> <p>To be clear: I'm not suggesting a round table just so that we can document<br /> who is responsible for the failure of the effort - though there would be a<br /> place for that for the sake of history and out of respect for your<br /> constituents. I have every reason to believe that such a move would<br /> succeed.</p> <p>You cited security challenges and the so-called opportunity of the "deal of<br /> the century" to justify a unity government rather than a national camp<br /> coalition government.</p> <p>The Nation can stand together without representatives of Blue White in the<br /> cabinet.</p> <p>What the Nation needs is an indication that the ruling coalition recognizes<br /> the severity of the situation and acts accordingly.</p> <p>Which brings us back to the round table of representatives of Yisrael<br /> Beiteinu and the religious parties.</p> <p>I cannot think of a stronger message that the ruling coalition recognizes<br /> the severity of the situation than an historic breakthrough on<br /> religion-state issues for a House United rather than a House Divided.</p> <p>Suffice it to say that this message would be reinforced by the contours of<br /> the security emergency budget that will apparently be required.</p> <p>Again - a tangible breakthrough in state-religion issues which facilitates<br /> Yisrael Beiteinu joining the ruling coalition followed by passage of a<br /> security emergency budget would create an environment in which almost all<br /> Israelis, regardless of who they voted for, would feel a part of.</p> <p>Suffice it to say that in the event that we are compelled to engaged in a<br /> major military campaign that the leadership of Blue White, sitting in the<br /> opposition, can be counted on to put the nation ahead of petty politics for<br /> the duration.</p> <p>This is not the time for time consuming and potentially disastrous political<br /> chess playing.</p> <p>Again. The national camp has enough seats to form a ruling coalition.</p> <p>It is most likely just a round table away.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Wed, 25 Sep 2019 18:58:07 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73579