IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: DM Gallant Unintentionally Encourages Membership in Hezbollah via Stone Age Threat for Lebanon

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 15:44:26 -0400

Weekly Commentary: DM Gallant Unintentionally Encourages Membership in
Hezbollah via Stone Age Threat for Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 June 2023

Let's imagine for a moment that you live in Lebanon.

And you see this threat:

"If Hezbollah makes a mistake and incites a war against Israel, we will
strike them with full force and return Lebanon to the Stone Age."
Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, Tuesday, 6 June 2023

And you take it seriously.

So, what is the smart thing to do?

On one hand, DM Gallant says that if and when there is going to be a war
between Hezbollah and Israel, the IDF will use its "full force" against
Hezbollah. So, it's hardly going to be a picnic for those serving in
Hezbollah's security forces.

On the other hand, DM Gallant says that Lebanon will be returned to the
Stone Age. That's all of Lebanon.

What to do?

Well, Hezbollah has already demonstrated in the past that it is quite
capable of looking after its members and their families when Lebanon falls
apart.

The IDF may bomb Lebanon back to the Stone Age but Hezbollah's state within
a state would no doubt supply its members and their families with food,
electricity, medical care, gasoline, and pretty much everything else needed
to weather the storm.

So, what is the smart thing to do if you live in Lebanon and take DM
Gallant's threat to return Lebanon to the Stone Age seriously?

To be associated with Hezbollah!

Oops.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: What If Bernard Lewis Was Right About Nuclear Iran Welcoming Apocalypse Rather Than Seeking Deterrence?

Thu, 01 Jun 2023 18:39:20 -0400

Weekly Commentary: What If Bernard Lewis Was Right About Nuclear Iran
Welcoming Apocalypse Rather Than Seeking Deterrence?
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 1 June 2023

"mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the
Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general
destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the
dead -- hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with
this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement."
Bernard Lewis - The Wall Street Journal Aug. 8, 2006

It would appear that the overwhelming majority of Israelis participating in
policy discussions relating to the Iranian nuclear challenge think that Iran
seeks nukes to protect their leadership from regime change.

Unfortunately, these policy makers and analysts simply cannot comprehend
that Iranian Twelvers could actually welcome an apocalypse set into motion
by an Iranian nuclear strike and the response that would follow. Without
saying it explicitly, they are arguing that there is some set of universal
values that has some kind of veto power over belief systems when adhering to
those beliefs can have unsavory results when judged by these "universal
values".

This is not an inconsequential academic disagreement.

The attitude of policy makers and analysts towards the threat of a nuclear
Iran would be radically different if they thought that there was even a 25%
chance that Bernard Lewis is correct.

I daresay that if they gave Bernard Lewis the weight his opinion deserves
that we would have already "pulled the trigger" on a massive operation long
ago.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: IDF COS Halevi: Weakening Hezbollah Not On IDF's Agenda

Wed, 24 May 2023 17:03:42 -0400

Weekly Commentary: IDF COS Halevi: Weakening Hezbollah Not On IDF's Agenda
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 May 2023

"...Hezbollah's buildup in the country is a major challenge for us. We are
delaying it, but it is difficult to contain it. We constantly need to ensure
that a qualitative gap is maintained and expanded between the pace of our
improvements and what they are doing, and always consider an initiative that
can bring an advantage."

"Hezbollah is very deterred by the idea of an all-out war with Israel."
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi this Tuesday at the Herzliya Conference

Let's break this up:

"We are delaying it" - slowing the pace of Hezbollah's buildup.

"but it is difficult to contain it" - Israel has a hard time stopping
Hezbollah from building up.

"We constantly need to ensure that a qualitative gap is maintained and
expanded between the pace of our improvements and what they are doing." -
our program is to improve our own capabilities.

"Hezbollah is very deterred by the idea of an all-out war with Israel." -
let us ignore that the question was never if Hezbollah is interested in
engaging in a full scale conflict with Israel but instead if Hezbollah would
refuse to launch a full scale conflict with Israel if Iran ordered them to
do it.

We can draw two conclusions from this presentation:

#1. Israel apparently has no intention to launch an operation, at its own
initiative, to significantly reduce Hezbollah's huge buildup. ("always
consider an initiative that can bring an advantage" can be interpreted as
meaning a lot of things other than what is termed "mowing the grass" when we
engage in operations on other fronts to reduce the buildups of our enemies.)

#2. Israeli officials continue to rely on the "deterrence" of Hezbollah's
leaders in Lebanon when the real decision makers regarding if Hezbollah
engages in a full scale conflict with Israel sit in Teheran.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Theological Debate Impossible - Numbers Should Drive Policy on Work and Skill Acquiring Disincentives For Haredis

Fri, 19 May 2023 07:56:18 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Theological Debate Impossible - Numbers Should Drive
Policy on Work and Skill Acquiring Disincentives For Haredis
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 May 2023

It is impossible to engage in a theological debate with Haredis on policy.
It is pointless, for example, to cite text in the Bible without relying on a
rabbinical interpretation. Midrash has a higher standing than the text of
the Bible. Thus we have Haredis citing the "precedent" that King David had
an equal number of men studying Torah as serving in his army and proposing
that Haredis are the modern day Issachar tribe which studies Torah while the
rest of us are a modern day Zebulun tribe working to support them.

This leaves us with the numbers.

#1. Of Israeli Jews age 25-64 only 31% of Haredi men and 37% of Haredi women
work full time while among Jews who do not identify themselves as being
Haredi, 76% of men and 59% of women work full time. (Source: Hebrew print
edition of Haaretz using a June 2022 report of the Knesset Information and
Research Center based on data from the end of 2021).

So when a Haredi argues that he works and all Haredis work he and his
friends could very well be among the 31%. But that personal experience
doesn't change the figures.

#2. The 11% of Haredis who term themselves "modern" comprise 11% of the
Haredi population and average 4.7 children per 40 year old woman while those
terming themselves "ultra conservative" comprise 28% of the Haredi
population and average 8.2 children. "Conservative" are 32% with 7.1
children and "with a touch of modernity" are 29% and 5.6 children.
(Source: Telephone poll 2018, Lee Kahaner, Haredi Society on the Axis
between Conservatism and Modernity, Jerusalem: Israel. Democracy Institute,
2020)

All other things being equal this huge difference in family size would
indicate that the representation of "ultra conservative" and "conservative"
in the Haredi population will rise significantly over time.

Combine #1 and #2 and we find ourselves with a society in which a huge chunk
of the population simply does not carry its own weight.

Yes. Those 31% Haredi men working full time (probably less over time as
more are "ultra conservative" and "conservative") can be the source of
encouraging anecdotal coverage of Haredi "success stories".

But the other 69%, along with the 53% of Haredi women not working full time,
simply aren't generating the income to be able to cover their cost to
society either via income tax or the VAT they pay to buy things with the
little money that they have.

They do not cover their medical care (the Government pays the health funds
per person in the fund), education, transportation and other expenses which
have a marginal cost per resident while benefiting from low income linked
transfers and discounts along with subsidies for those who choose to study
Torah rather than work. And that's before we even talk about sharing the
cost of national defense and other big ticket items.

The numbers are much much worse than the numbers that the talking heads
mention. They talk of 50% of Haredi men working when only 31% work full
time. The 81% labor force participation rate of Haredi women is seen as an
indication that the problem is only with Haredi men when only 37% of them
work full time.

It would be comforting to be able to conclude with a policy recommendation
guaranteed to significantly raise the labor force participation rate.

But Haredi politicians argue that economic considerations play no role in
the decision not to work and the 6% increase in 2009 in the Haredi
employment rate in the wake of then Finance Minister Netanyahu's reduction
in child benefits is seen by some economists as inconclusive.

In the least we can say that a key step to solving a problem is recognizing
that it both exists and is significant.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Hamas and Hezbollah Patient (In Coordination With Iran) - Not Deterred

Sat, 13 May 2023 16:13:57 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Hamas and Hezbollah Patient (In Coordination With Iran) -
Not Deterred
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 May 2023

It is critical that Israeli policymakers understand that Hamas and Hezbollah
patience, rather than Israeli deterrence or Israeli carrots, explains why
they haven't actively joined in the battle between Islamic Jihad and the
Jewish State.

Iran is indeed patiently building up the attack capabilities of Hamas and
Hezbollah and has no intention to waste their huge investment.

And the crime is that under "quiet for quiet" the only thing Israel is doing
about these massive programs is to dutifully record each weapons factory,
testing site, armory, etc. in a target bank.

Yes. Weapons destined for Hezbollah may be destroyed if they are in Syria.
But the moment they cross the border into Lebanon its target bank time.
You've no doubt read about the GPS upgrade kits which turn rockets into
guided missiles which we have destroyed in Syria. When the very same kits
land in Beirut Airport we do nothing.

Yes, people mysteriously die in Lebanon. But there's no open source coverage
of mysterious explosions or other activities in Lebanon which would indicate
that the Jewish State is doing anything substantial to prevent the ongoing
upgrade of many tens of thousands of rockets into guided missiles.

So these days Hamas has been sitting back and observing our method of
operations against rival Islamic Jihad so that it can improve its own
military accordingly.

Hamas will continue to openly test their rockets as they extend their range
and warhead weight. And we will take notes.

Hamas one day will, if they haven't already, introduce guided missiles. And
we will take notes if we are even aware of it.

Hamas will improve and practice their use of drones. And we will take
notes.

Hamas will continue carrying out huge military exercises in preparation for
judgment day. And we will take notes.

And when the "quiet for quiet" ceasefire with Islamic Jihad goes into effect
they also can gleefully openly begin producing rockets for the next round.
And we will tale notes.

Its not deterrence its patience.

Its not work permits. Its patience.

Allowing Gaza to build a seaport or airport won't change their determination
to prepare and ultimately participate in judgment day.

To be clear: I support improving the economic lot of Gazans. I think it's a
good idea to allow as many Gazans to be gainfully employed in Israel as
possible subject to security considerations.

But I harbor no illusion that these Israeli "carrots" will somehow prevent
Hamas from following attack orders issued from Teheran when that day comes.

Israeli policymakers must recognize this.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu rightfully sees Iran as our existential
threat.

But our ability to carry out an operation against Iran and the consequences
of such an operation would be profoundly different if we FIRST destroy the
military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Haaretz Documents That Crisis Caused By Refusal of Opposition Parties To Participate in Democratic Legislative Process

Sat, 06 May 2023 16:30:28 -0400

Haaretz Documents That Crisis Caused By Refusal of Opposition Parties To
Participate in Democratic Legislative Process
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 May 2023

Unintentionally, "Know Yariv" by Hilo Glazer Haaretz Supplement 5.5.2023,
provides a strong indictment against those parties which refused to
participate in the democratic legislative process in the Knesset for
judicial reform.

"he (Justice Minister Levin) did not intend for his plan to pass in its maximalist version,
and he admitted that he planted many bargaining chips in it.... With the
passage of time, his spirit darkened and he expressed to his interlocutors
authentic frustration at the feeling that there was no one to talk to on the
other side."

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il