IMRA Middle East News Updates

Observation: Secretary Blinken's 3 Monkeys Salute to Abbas

Tue, 31 Jan 2023 19:47:47 -0500

Content preview: Observation: Secretary Blinken's 3 Monkeys Salute to Abbas
Dr. Aaron Lerner 31 January 2023 Excerpts from REMARKS ANTONY J. BLINKEN,
SECRETARY OF STATE PRESIDENT’S OFFICE RAMALLAH JANUARY 31, 2023 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-palestinian-authority-president-mahmoud-
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Observation: Secretary Blinken's 3 Monkeys Salute to Abbas
Dr. Aaron Lerner 31 January 2023

Excerpts from
REMARKS ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE
PRESIDENT’S OFFICE
RAMALLAH
JANUARY 31, 2023
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-palestinian-authority-president-mahmoud-abbas-after-their-meeting-2/

SECRETARY BLINKEN: ...I also appreciate, Mr. President, your consistent and
resolute stance against terrorism.
[AL: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil: not a word about the
"consistent and resolute stance" of Mr. Abbas to PAY terrorists and their
families in accordance with how successful they are in their attacks. And
this is regardless of the target or circumstances.

Meanwhile, we oppose any action by either side that makes that goal more
difficult to achieve, more distant. And we’ve been clear that this includes
things like:

{AL Israel side]

- settlement expansion
- the legalization of outposts
- demolitions and evictions [AL: not a word AGAINST illegal Palestinian
construction in Area C - apparently Mr. Blinken thinks they cannot be
demolished]
- disruptions to the historic status quo of the holy sites

[AL: amorphous list]

- and of course incitement and acquiescence to violence.

- We look to both sides to unequivocally condemn any acts of violence
regardless of the victim or the perpetrator. [AL: Press releases? What
about acting AGAINST violence?]

So we discussed all of these vitally important and urgent matters. In
addition, we talked about the importance of the Palestinian Authority itself
continuing to improve its governance and accountability, strengthening the
institutions of the PA. That too will improve the lives of the Palestinian
people and also lay the groundwork for a democratic Palestinian state. [AL:
Again not a word about acting AGAINST violence]
...
This is a challenging time. I appreciate the president’s determination to
try to work through it in a responsible way that looks out for the lives of
everyone, of Palestinians and Israelis alike. [AL: A three monkey solute to
Mr. Abbas]

AL: In contrast this is the only positive thing Mr. Blinken can say about
Mr. Netanyahu:

Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
After Their Meeting
REMARKS
ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER
PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE
JERUSALEM
JANUARY 30, 2023
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-after-their-meeting/

SECRETARY BLINKEN: ... We continue to support upholding the historic status
quo at Jerusalem’s holy places, including the Temple Mount Haram al-Sharif.
We’re grateful to the prime minister for his repeated expressions of support
for that position....
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Dear Pres. Herzog - Handling of Ben-Gvir Law Shows Knesset The Venue For Resolving Disputes Democratically

Wed, 25 Jan 2023 12:59:34 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Dear Pres. Herzog - Handling of Ben-Gvir Law Shows
Knesset The Venue For Resolving Disputes Democratically
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 June 2023

Dear President Herzog,

Your initiative to reach a national consensus via a conference under your
auspices is well meaning but impractical.

At this stage of the game, neither Binyamin Netanyahu's "base" nor the MKs
in his coalition would support a move they would see as a device to derail
reform efforts.

And after Knesset legal adviser Sagit Afik's recommendation today that three
key bills in the reform package can be fast tracked as committee bills the
"legislative train" has most certainly pulled out of the station.

But all is not lost. The give-and-take demonstrated inside the Knesset
committee which handled what turned out to be the first half of the
"Ben-Gvir Law" is proof positive that when the political and legal
participants in the legislative process act in good faith that it is
possible to hammer out good laws.

Before serving as president you had a long career in the Knesset, including
as a member of the 18th Knesset's Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee.

You can make a truly historic contribution to this process by finding a way
to "encourage" all sides to turn the democratic process about to unfold into
something which we can all be proud of.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Observation: Under International Law Israel Can Kill Hezbollah Forces Trying To Blind People In Metullah With Lasers

Mon, 23 Jan 2023 17:09:23 -0500

Observation: Under International Law Israel Can Kill Hezbollah Forces Trying
To Blind People In Metullah With Lasers
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 January 2023

Kan 11 TV news reported this evening that the IDF is clueless how to prevent
Hezbollah terrorists from continuing their efforts to blind the residents of
Metula with strong laser beams which Hezbollah aims from a hill around 180
meter across the border.

Let's consider international law:

"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of
individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a
Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures
necessary to maintain international peace and security."
Article 51 of the UN Charter

So what is an "armed attack"? Do blinding lasers qualify?

"An armed attack requires the use of significant force that causes or
threatens to cause death or injury to persons"
International Committee of the Red Cross - Interpretive Guidance on the
Notion of Direct Participation in Hostilities

"An armed attack is a use of force that is both significant and direct, and
that causes or threatens to cause death or injury to people"
Dr. Jens David Ohlin, Vice Dean and Professor of Law at Cornell Law School -
"Defending Humanity: When Force is Justified and Why"

Those lasers, which can permanently blind people, most certainly qualify as
a use of force threatening to cause "injury".

So while Kan 11 reports the IDF is clueless how to stop attacks originating
180 meters across the border, international law allows the IDF to kill the
attackers if that's what it takes.

Have we returned to the approach that we need to wait for a very photogenic
Israeli to first be seriously wounded before defending ourselves out of PR
considerations?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

[I told you so] PM and DM statement after instructions of Min. Smotrich Ignored and New Outpost Evacuated

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 09:21:27 -0500

[I told you so] PM and DM statement after instructions of Min. Smotrich
Ignored and New Outpost Evacuated
Dr. Aaron Lerner 20 January 2022

Further to my 29 December 2022 Commentary: Coalition Agreements Give
Netanyahu Veto Power in Judea and Samaria (below)

Today an outpost was evacuated in contravention of explicit written
instructions issued by Min. Smotrich

Prime Minister's Office Statement
The Government supports settlement but only when it is done legally and is
coordinated in advance with the Prime Minister and security officials, which
was not done in this case. The Prime Minister will convene a discussion on
the issue early next week.

Defense Ministry Statement
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently spoke with IDF Chief-of-Staff
Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, and reaffirmed his full support for the IDF and
security forces.

Every action on the ground must be conducted in accordance with the law. It
must also be fully coordinated and must be taken in accordance with the
relevant security situation assessment.

======================
Commentary: Coalition Agreements Give Netanyahu Veto Power in Judea and
Samaria
Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 December 2022

Copies of the coalition agreements are available on the Knesset website:
https://main.knesset.gov.il/mk/government/pages/coalitionagreements.aspx

The phrase which probably appears in the agreements with the greatest
frequency in sections dealing with Judea and Samaria is "in coordination and
subject to the consent of the prime minister".

Paragraph 21 of the appendix to the coalition agreement between the Likud
and Religious Zionists dated December 1st essentially strips Smotrich of any
power: "The minister in the Ministry of Defense as per subparagraph 6.4
(hereinafter the minister) (AL: Smotrich) will receive receive full
responsibility for areas of activity of Coordination of Government
Activities in the Territories and the Civil Authority. The activity of the
minister will be in coordination with and subject to the consent of the
prime minister.

So when Binyamin Netanyahu reassured America in various interviews in
English that he was in charge in Judea and Samaria he knew he already had
this appendix signed.

As for applying sovereignty to Judea and Samaria, Paragraph 118 of the
coalition agreement between the Likud and Religious Zionists dated December
28th states "...the prime minister will lead the development and advancement
of policies within whose framework sovereignty will apply to Judea and
Samaria, while choosing the timing and weighing all of the national and
international interests of the State of Israel."

In other words: Binyamin Netanyahu can opt to freeze Jewish construction in
Judea and Samaria while ignoring illegal Arab construction and indefinitely
postpone any application of sovereignty to any areas of Judea and Samaria.

The "explanation of the month" for such a policy is the opportunity to
establish diplomatic relations with the Saudis.

The idea is that the Saudis would excuse the move as a measure to prevent
Israel from annexing Judea and Samaria. But right now the "annexation
threat" is a gun with dud bullets.

I daresay that if the Netanyahu coalition were to do a snap annexation of
the Jordan Valley and perhaps other strategic areas that this would give the
Saudis a substantially stronger justification to establish diplomatic
relations with the Jewish State to prevent additional annexations.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Chutzpadik Questions For Saudis, Americans, Deeri, Israel

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 01:14:55 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Chutzpadik Questions For Saudis, Americans, Deeri, Israel
Dr. Aaron Lerner 20 January, 2023

Here are some of my chutzpadik and not so chutzpadik questions:

1. "Pikuach mamon doche...": Is Aryeh Deri willing to forfeit the many
hundreds of millions of shekels his Shas party is slated to receive WITHOUT
OVERSIGHT if he pulls out of the coalition government?

2. If Israel annexed the Jordan Valley this morning and then offered the
Saudis not to continue with additional annexations in exchange for
diplomatic recognition, wouldn't this be "the mother of all concessions" for
the Saudis to justify recognizing the Jewish State?

3. Why do American officials express concern about the number of Arabs who
died while trying to murder Israeli?

4. How can America insist Israel turn a blind eye to security concerns
regarding Palestinians who happen to hold American passports when many
Israelis who were born in Iran, including former Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz,
experienced difficulties in receiving visas at the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv,
and even those who were granted visas faced the risk of finding themselves
barred from entry upon arrival in the U.S.?

5. The War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel (WRSA-I) is a strategic
reserve of ammunition and other military equipment stored by the United
States in Israel for the use of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in case of
war or other emergency situations. Israel has drawn from this stockpile on
numerous occasions. When, months ago, the United States pulled the
ammunition out of WRSA-I to send to the Ukrainians, did the Israeli Ministry
of Defense immediately place an order for made in Israel ammunition of a
similar quantity so that the Jewish State wouldn't find itself empty handed
in an emergency?

6. Will some components or subcomponents of the Iron Beam units serving
Israel's own needs be manufactured in the United States as a result of
Rafael's collaboration with Lockheed Martin?

7. Regardless of Rafael's collaboration with Lockheed Martin, will the Iron
Beam units serving Israel's own needs rely on components or subcomponents
made in the United States?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Observation: Will Shas Cause Formation of Coalition Without Haredis?

Wed, 18 Jan 2023 11:02:32 -0500

Observation: Will Shas Cause Formation of Coalition Without Haredis?
Dr. Aaron Lerner January 18, 2023

If the Council of Sages of Shas instructs the 11 Shas MKs to walk out of the
government in the wake of the Supreme Court decision against Deeri serving
as a minister Binyamin Netanyahu will face a critical decision,

Option #1: He can try to replace the 11 with Yisrael Beiteinu (6) and New
Hope (4). But it is highly unlikely that these parties will agree to join a
coalition with Netanyahu as prime minister.

Option #2: He can go for snap elections only to find himself with the same
problem since Deeri still cannot serve as a minister.

Option #3: He can go for snap legislation with a 100% chance the the Supreme
Court voids the legislation so that we ultimately end up back at Option #2
if Shas continues to insist that they cannot remain in the coalition if
Deeri is not a minister.

Option #4: He can reform the government with Deeri appointed the
"replacement prime minister" and while this technically is not subject to
the legal limitations of a regular minister there are excellent chances that
the Supreme Court will find a way to void that appointment as well so that
we ultimately end up back at Option #2 if Shas continues to insist that they
cannot remain in the coalition if Deeri is not a minister.

Option #5: He can hold a snap meeting of the Likud Central Committee to
approve a change in the rules so that someone else from the Likud can serve
as prime minister. The odds are close to 100% that Yisrael Beiteinu (6) and
New Hope (4) would join a Likud coalition as long as Netanyahu is not the
prime minister.

If the Ashkenazi haredi party, UJT (7 seats) were to somehow decided to
join Shas in walking out then there are close to 100% odds that Lapid's
Yesh Atid (24 sets) would join the coalition headed by a Likudnik other
than Netanyahu. This would result in a coalition of 87 (!) MKs.

Since Binyamin Netanyahu apparently genuinely believes that only he is
equipped to lead the country, it would appear that Options #2, #3 and #4 are
the most likely.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il