IMRA Middle East News Updates

Clarification: National Camp Won - Religion-State Issues Taking

Mon, 23 Sep 2019 04:45:38 +0000

Clarification: National Camp Won - Religion-State Issues Taking Priority
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 September, 2019

The national camp includes Yisrael Beiteinu.

It has more than 61 seats.

PM Netanyahu so far has been unable to form a ruling coalition because
Yisrael Beiteinu leader Liberman believes that religion-state issues take
precedence.

Thanks to the hard line taken by Mahmoud Abbas et. al. Liberman does not see
the threat of the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state in the
foreseeable future.

At the same time, it appears that a Netanyahu administration won't engage in
truly dramatic action on the national front.

Two indications of this were decisions by Mr. Netanyahu in the days up to
the elections:

- during a high profile election campaign visit to Hebron he declined, as
DM, to sign a letter to the mayor of Hebron ending the municipality's lease
on the Jewish owned "old market", a move that would have opened the area to
Jewish construction.

- he indefinitely postponed applying Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan
Valley and the northern Dead Sea on 15 September by appointing a working
team led by the director general of his ministry, Ronen Peretz, to formulate
an outline for carrying out the move - this when he already had a final map
for the decision and only needed to carry out a Government vote approving
the map (or alternatively submit the legislation he also had already
prepared for submission to the Knesset).

This in contrast to the religion-state issues: the prospects of crippling
development of the country by banning infrastructure work on the Sabbath and
allowing the growing Haredi sector to continue to decline to give their
children the tools critical to equip them to make a significant contribute
to the economy (English and math).

History though, has shown, that it is difficult to predict what may happen
in the coming period. Suffice it to say that even in the absence of the
creation of a sovereign Palestinian state, there are many ways for almost
all of Area C to undergo a transformation that will prevent future
significant Israeli construction beyond the area of the current communities.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Peretz to PM: 'Bring Pollard to Israel'

Sun, 22 Sep 2019 18:28:13 +0000

Normalcy: Palestinian medic treating IDF soldier isn't news item

Sun, 22 Sep 2019 18:24:22 +0000

Normalcy? Palestinian medic treating IDF soldier isn't news item
Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 September 2019

At the start of "Oslo" it was big news when a Palestinian construction
worker cared for a stray child who wandered into a Herzliya building site in
the middle of the night. He was even given a reward.

Today, when a Palestinian medic was the first to treat an IDF officer
wounded in his face from stones thrown at his car it wasn't even a headline
and the news items covering the incident mentioned the Palestinian medic
somewhere in the middle of the story.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Yisrael Beiteinu Head Avigdor Liberman Sets Red Lines On Religion And State Issues

Fri, 20 Sep 2019 10:10:20 +0000

Yisrael Beiteinu Head Avigdor Liberman Sets Red Lines On Religion And State
Issues
Dr. Aaron Lerner 20 September 2019

The following is a translation of an excerpt of a post by Avigdor Liberman
on his Facebook page on 20 September, 2019
https://www.facebook.com/178433145502975/posts/2731713080174956?

After counting almost 100% of the votes and before the meetings with the
president begin, a few updates:

...
4. In recent days, I have suddenly heard new music from the leaders of the
ultra-Orthodox parties. There are no more nicknames such as Amalek and
Hitler and there is a call to stop the hate talk. I warmly welcome it. For
us, and I have made it clear in the past, the ultra-Orthodox parties are not
an enemy, but a political rival. We follow different approaches. They are
Beit Shamai and we are Beit Hillel.

On issues of religion and state, we have reached a crossroads that requires
a decision between the two approaches. Not a compromise, but a decision.

It is important to clarify once again what is the minimum threshold for us
regarding religion and state:
- the Draft Law as written
- civil marriage
- conversion by the rabbis of cities
- Restoring the Western Wall Outline
- Core studies in ultra-Orthodox educational institutions
- Public transport and opening supermarkets on Saturday. The last two issues
will be within the authority of the local government according to the nature
of the community in each locality.

We will not agree to less than that, even at the cost of sitting in the
opposition.

Shabbat Shalom
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Observation: Will the Ultra-Orthodox Cut Their Potential Losses?

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:30:50 +0000

Observation: Will the Ultra-Orthodox Cut Their Potential Losses?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 September, 2019

April 2019 - in a surprise move, the religious-Zionist Union of the
Right-Wing Parties announced immediately after the elections that they would
join with the ultra-orthodox parties as a bloc of 21 MKs in negotiations to
form a new ruling coalition. Their immediate focus would be restricting
Sabbath infrastructure work.

The die was cast.

Suddenly state-religion issues that normally take the back burner played a
critical role in the September elections that followed as Avigdor Liberman
seized the issue to transform his moribund Yisrael Beiteinu party and almost
double his seats.

The ultra-Orthodox did well in this election. But if they find themselves
in the opposition it will be a pyric victory.

It remains to be seen if their leadership has the self confidence to cut
their losses by conceding on three key issues:

#1. Passage of the proposed military service law exactly as it written.

#2. English and math studies for all children.

#3. A framework for continuing Sabbath infrastructure work.

I am not going to spend time here explaining why the ultra-orthodox should
be able to find a way to live with this.

I am not even going to argue if Deputy Health Minister Yaakov Litzman was
justified in demanding earlier this month that Noble Energy halt work on the
Sabbath erecting a gas drilling rig 10 kilometers off the coast.

The point is that much of the rest of Israeli society perceives these as
existential issues.

Conceding these three issues won't end what's been termed a "culture war",
but it would most certainly guarantee the place of the ultra-orthodox
parties in whatever ruling coalition is formed.

And there is no telling what a coalition may pull off in their absence.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

No Principles, No Dignity, No Power, No Deterrence

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 18:57:24 +0000

No Principles, No Dignity, No Power, No Deterrence
Yigal Carmon MEMRI Daily Brief #198 September 19, 2019

People without principles and dignity do not understand that these are
sources of tangible power that create deterrence. People who evade
projecting those elements of power are doomed to be deterred by those with
dignity and principles - however odious and deplorable - such as Iran,
Russia, and China down to the level of Turkey. They treat the US with
constant verbal contempt and actual provocations, in the knowledge that they
can bait the US with impunity. 1

The attacks of 9/14 on Saudi Arabia's oil plants demonstrate this American
tragedy. The immediate, tactical targets were Saudi, but they could well
have been American CENTCOM targets with a similar level of damage sustained.

Out of the best intentions of sparing America wars, America will inevitably
face both "war and shame". President Trump asked Senator Lindsey Graham "How
did going into Iraq work out?" One would have expected the man who restored
the bust of Winston Churchill to the Oval Office to consider how did the
appeasement policy of Chamberlain work out and what was the cost to the US
in lives a few years later. But even the understanding that in a world where
America is no longer the guarantor of world order, the American economy will
also tank is beyond the qualifications of a great hotelier and real estate
mogul.

The 9/14 attacks, correctly referred to by Secretary of State Michael Pompeo
as "an act of war", is a harsh humiliating blow dealt to the U.S., signaling
an American multilevel failure:

First, there was a failure of deterrence. The Iranians took a calculated
risk and were proven correct. They view themselves the military regional
equals of the US and via their proxies even beyond the region.

American military officials openly betray their fear of Iranian power and
retaliatory capability on CENTCOM targets and they thus make Trump's boast
that the US is the world's strongest military power, empty posturing In fact
it is Iran that is actually deterring the U.S. from any retaliation. Iran
relies on its proven ability to act in the local theater while its results
have a global ripple effect.

Secondly, it was a failure of U.S. intelligence (military, NSA, CIA and
others). Apparently, there was no early warning about an operation that must
have had dozens of parties engaged in the decision process, the secret
planning and the preparations. Since May 2019, MEMRI has issued several
strategic warnings about the Iranian threats to carry out such attacks,
based on open Iranian sources.

Thirdly, the successful Iranian attack represented an American technological
failure, as not a single cruise missile or drone was intercepted. Iranian
Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif ridiculed the U.S., tweeting "Perhaps [the US
is] embarrassed that $100s of blns of its arms didn't intercept Yemeni
fire".

Fourthly, and most disturbingly, it is a case of political failure - no one
in the U.S. administration expected such a bold direct Iranian attack. True,
Iran has resorted to proxies to afford it deniability, but now the Iranian
leadership has realistically gauged American hesitancy and conflict aversion
and believed that Iran could risk making a direct attack, discounting the
possibility of strong American retaliation. Considering the global effect of
this bold attack, so far, the calculated risk has proven to be a sound bet.

Why The Attacks?

The attacks of 9/14 have nothing to do with the war in Yemen; it is about
the U.S. sanctions. Iran is painfully squeezed and tries to ease the
sanctions by applying force - for now only against American allies and U.S.
interests. Iran will continue to do so until the sanctions are significantly
eased, as long as it assesses that the penalty for these attacks is nil or
bearable. This is not rocket science and only requires a basic comprehension
and not secret intelligence.

What Can Now Be Expected?

1. No deterrent American response against Iran should be expected. Knowing
that the U.S. administration will not stand by the Saudis militarily, KSA
spokesmen and leaders have refrained from explicitly accusing Iran, and
have emulated the UAE leaders, who refrained from pointing a finger at Iran
after the attacks on their tankers on June 2019, even when Iranian
complicity had been proven.

2. Further Iranian attacks, based on the same Iranian logic, will take place
in the future as a result of continued U.S. sanctions, and not due to any
reaction by KSA, the U.S. etc. to Iranian attacks.

20/20 Vision

No American can gain from Iran's humbling of America. Any future president
will have to address the Iranian threat and restore America's power,
deterrence, principles and dignity, albeit at a much higher price. The
powers of evil cannot be tamed by American self-abnegation. This lesson
should have been assimilated in the previous century. With all the justified
aversion to Saudi Arabia due to the murder of Khashoggi, Saudi crimes pale
in comparison to the mega murders committed by the Ayatollah regime in their
ongoing unbridled drive for an Islamic dictatorship. The real threat is
Iran's quest for regional domination and nuclear weapons. Ideally,
presidential contenders should prioritize these long range considerations;
realistically this is not going to happen.

* Yigal Carmon is the President and founder of MEMRI

Endnotes

1 The American loss of dignity was on display in spades when Trump
thanked the Iranians for not downing a manned US plane that flew alongside
the downed American UAV. No wonder that the Iranians were further convinced
of their moral superiority and the justice of their Islamic Revolution
ideology.