IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il Middle East News & Analysis en-US 1695998668 1695998668 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Capalon Internet 2.0 imra@netvision.net.il (Aaron Lerner) News & Analysis IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il https://www.imra.org.il/imra_sm.png 144 97 Weekly Commentary: Why is Suspected Iranian Agent Ariane Tabatabai Still In The Pentagon With Access To Secrets? https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74009 <p>Weekly Commentary: Why is Suspected Iranian Agent Ariane Tabatabai Still In The Pentagon With Access To Secrets? <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 September 2023 <br /> <br /> It seems like a day doesn't go by without American officials publicly <br /> commenting about domestic Israeli affairs. <br /> <br /> I'm not expecting symmetry. <br /> <br /> But when the Biden administration lets some suspected of working for Iran <br /> remain in their sensitive Pentagon job this definitely calls for something <br /> to be said. <br /> <br /> Ariane Tabatabai is the current chief of staff for the assistant secretary <br /> of defense for special operations in the Pentagon. <br /> <br /> I shudder when I think what Israeli intelligence, plans, etc. Ariane <br /> Tabatabai CONTINUES to have access to. <br /> <br /> The moment on MONDAY September 25th that Iran International and Semafor <br /> published their investigation of Ariane Tabatabai's allegiance to Iran and <br /> active participation as an agent of Iran she should have been out the door. <br /> https://content.iranintl.com/en/investigates/inside-tehran-softwar/ <br /> https://www.semafor.com/article/09/25/2023/inside-irans-influence-operation <br /> <br /> Yet still on THURSDAY September 28th Chris Maier, assistant secretary of <br /> defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, told a House <br /> Foreign Affairs Committee that while the granting of Tabatabai's security <br /> clearance was being investigated that she was apparently still working! <br /> <br /> If this is the attitude of the Biden administration about secrets and Iran <br /> we Israelis have to do some very hard thinking about what to do next. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 29 Sep 2023 10:44:28 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74009 Commentary: Dear Dems - Instead of seeking to screw us - go for cheap oil until the elections https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74008 <p>Commentary: Dear Dems - Instead of seeking to screw us - go for cheap oil <br /> until the elections <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 September 2023 <br /> <br /> Dear Democrat Party Senator: All the talking heads are explaining how the <br /> only way to convince you guys to vote for a Saudi deal is if we Israelis are <br /> screwed. <br /> <br /> And while I appreciate that there may be no greater pleasure for you and the <br /> Israelis who have been encouraging you to screw us than to somehow force <br /> Binyamin Netanyahu to make major sacrifices to the "one state solution" <br /> Moloch, I would like to suggest that with around 400 days left before the <br /> November 2024 elections that you put practicality ahead of passion. <br /> <br /> Screwing Israel feels good but it doesn't get you any extra votes. <br /> <br /> The voters who want to see Israel screwed are already voting for your party. <br /> <br /> So who should be the address when you think of the pay-off needed to garner <br /> your support for a Saudi deal? <br /> <br /> Remember "It's the economy, stupid."? <br /> <br /> Right. Don't be stupid. <br /> <br /> Remember when the Saudis rebuffed President Biden's efforts to convince them <br /> to keep oil prices down before the 2022 elections? <br /> <br /> Mr. Biden was on the right track but lacked the traction. <br /> <br /> The Saudi deal provides this traction. <br /> <br /> Low gasoline prices up to November 2024 is a win-win: <br /> - Voters go to the polls happy that gasoline is cheap - they only find out <br /> after their votes are counted that the relief was temporary. <br /> - The Russians and Iranians are screwed by the reduced revenue. <br /> - The lower oil prices renders the American shale oil you despise not <br /> economical and discourages, in general, the development of domestic fossil <br /> fuel sources. <br /> <br /> An American-operated enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia which includes <br /> features which render it inoperable in the absence of the American <br /> technicians is hardly science fiction. <br /> <br /> So take a break from the lobbying of the Israelis and their American allies <br /> urging you to force Israel to make dangerous sacrifices "for its own good" <br /> and do what's good for the November 2024 elections. <br /> <br /> "It's the economy, stupid." <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Mon, 25 Sep 2023 18:57:56 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74008 50 years after Yom Kippur War - 3 Observations (false narrative against Golda) https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74007 <p>50 years after Yom Kippur War - 3 Observations (false narrative against <br /> Golda) <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner (Originally distributed on 12 September 2013 - 40 years to <br /> the War <br /> <br /> #1 Thankfully we ignored Abie Nathan's calls on Voice of Peace radio <br /> <br /> It was 1973 and I was on Kibbutz Saad in the Negev. <br /> <br /> Yom Kippur was just over and in a few minutes I was supposed to go over to <br /> the bomb shelter to help clear it out. The nightmarish war was well underway <br /> and many had already been called up and left Saad before the fast ended. <br /> <br /> I flipped on my radio trying to get some news about the war and there was <br /> someone on in English urging the soldiers to put down their weapons. Not to <br /> fight. I thought it was an Arab station. But it wasn't. It was Abie Nathan <br /> on the Voice of Peace. <br /> <br /> On August 2, 1995 I asked him about it: <br /> <br /> IMRA: Did you ever get any flack from people who remember that you called <br /> for soldiers to put down their arms at the start of the Yom Kippur War? <br /> <br /> Nathan: "We asked for people on both sides to put down their weapons and <br /> many people still remember it. I know many Egyptians who tell me that they <br /> heard the broadcast. I was broadcasting off of Port Said. We had just <br /> started broadcasting on the ship. It was on Yom Kippur and all the <br /> [Israeli - IMRA] radio stations were silent. Since I was off of Port Said I <br /> was really among the first to know that the war had started. <br /> <br /> "No one thought there was anything wrong with calling for the soldiers not <br /> to fight. If the soldiers on both sides had only listened to me it would <br /> have left the war for the generals to fight." <br /> <br /> But he wasn't calling in Arabic. It was in English. <br /> <br /> And while some Egyptians may have heard him. his audience was overwhelmingly <br /> Israeli. <br /> <br /> Thank God no Israeli soldier heeded his call. <br /> <br /> #2. The Israeli victory <br /> <br /> At the end of what Egypt terms the "victorious 1973 October War" the <br /> Egyptian Third Army was "victoriously" trapped and "victoriously" starving <br /> to death. <br /> <br /> The "victorious" Egyptian Army met with the "defeated?" Israeli Army at <br /> Kilometer 101. <br /> <br /> But Kilometer 101 was not 101 kilometers from either Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. <br /> <br /> It was 101 kilometers from Cairo. <br /> <br /> By the same token, the "victorious" Syrian Army did not reach a ceasefire <br /> with the "defeated" IDF with the "victorious" Syrian army on the road to <br /> Haifa. Instead the "defeated" IDF was on the road to Damascus after pushing <br /> back the "victorious" Syrian army. <br /> <br /> #3. Sadat - Not Golda Meir - rejected negotiations to avoid Yom Kippur War <br /> <br /> A. The Kissinger initiative <br /> <br /> The following excerpt from "The Rabin Memoirs by Yitzhak Rabin" (pages <br /> 215-218) provides solid evidence that Prime Minister Golda Meir was open to <br /> negotiating an Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai before the 1973 Yom Kippur <br /> War. It was Anwar Sadat who opted for war over diplomacy. <br /> <br /> ...February 28 [AL: 1973]...Kissinger, who received me at the White House at <br /> 7:30 that evening with an omniscient expression on his face. "I imagine that <br /> the prime minister has had a tough and depressing day," he said in what <br /> sounded to me like a self-satisfied tone. ...he noted that his approach in <br /> his talks with Hafez Ismail of Egypt had concentrated on the principle of <br /> "security versus sovereignty." Translated into pragmatic terms, it meant <br /> that Israel would have to accept Egyptian sovereignty over all of the Sinai <br /> but that Egypt, in turn, would have to accept an Israeli military presence <br /> in certain strategic positions, such as Sharm el-Sheikh (though he hastened <br /> to add that such an Israeli military presence might have to be disguised as <br /> a civilian one). <br /> <br /> ...Golda readily agreed, so long as it was understood that such explorations <br /> would be undertaken with Israel's knowledge but not in her behalf. I <br /> immediately notified Kissinger... <br /> <br /> ...In April, Dr. Kissinger continued his efforts to reach an understanding <br /> with Hafez Ismail on the basis of the "security versus sovereignty" formula, <br /> but in May President Sadat rejected the proposal - as he had earlier <br /> rejected the idea of "proximity talks." By then Sadat was already fully <br /> determined to go to war, and he was not interested in exploring any <br /> political solution that was not set out purely on his own terms...." <br /> <br /> B. The Israeli initiative <br /> <br /> Ronen Pollak reported on Israel Radio 9 June 2013 that documents published <br /> by the State Archives show that three months before the Yom Kippur War. <br /> Prime Minister Golda Meir asked German Chancellor Willy Brant to send a <br /> message to President Sadat of Egypt that Israel was willing to give up most <br /> of the Sinai Peninsula, but stressed that Israel would not return to the '67 <br /> lines. <br /> <br /> Israel did not report the move to the United States. <br /> <br /> A German envoy met with the Egyptian President's senior advisor and <br /> consultant Hafez Ismail who rejected the offer as long as Israel was not <br /> willing to withdraw to the '67 lines. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sat, 23 Sep 2023 17:16:20 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74007 Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - Please Don't Screw Up On The Deliverables https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74006 <p>Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - Please Don't Screw Up On The Deliverables <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 September 2023 <br /> <br /> Kan, the Israeli public broadcaster, reports that Israeli and Saudi teams <br /> are already meeting. <br /> <br /> One thing they are no doubt discussing are the Israeli "deliverables" for <br /> the Palestinians. <br /> <br /> There's a lot of people around with one simple answer: for Area C: a Jewish <br /> building freeze along with a moratorium on any Israeli action against <br /> illegal Palestinian construction. <br /> <br /> So it comes down to whether or not Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has <br /> invested the time and effort to come up with a portfolio of deliverables <br /> which don't undermine our interests. <br /> <br /> Here's a few of my ideas: <br /> <br /> #1. Ben Gurion Airport as the air gateway for all residents of Judea and <br /> Samaria not identified specifically for special restrictions by the Israeli <br /> security authorities. We are already doing this for those bearing US <br /> passports. <br /> <br /> #2. Adjustment of the delineation of Areas A, B and C without changing their <br /> respective overall sizes so that some of the Palestinian communities which <br /> have spilled over into Area C are part of Area A or B. <br /> <br /> #3. Cooperation in launching industrial zones in Areas A & B with expedited <br /> freight movement between these zones and both Israel and our ports. <br /> <br /> #4. Expedited implementation of Plan 633-0523670 approved on 18 January 2021 <br /> for a rail connecting Erez Crossing adjacent to the Gaza Strip to Ashdod <br /> Port thus slashing the cost and time for moving freight (including 20 and 40 <br /> foot containers) between the Gaza Strip and Ashdod Port. <br /> <br /> To be clear: if it ends up that our deliverables are building freezes <br /> and/or allowing the injection of a large American trained and armed <br /> Palestinian force into our bedroom (of course with "iron clad guarantees" <br /> that everything will be ok) then we will know that Mr. Netanyahu and his <br /> team screwed up. <br /> <br /> Because, regardless of the spinning, the truth is that the Saudis can live <br /> with deliverables which improve Palestinians lives that don't screw Israel. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Thu, 21 Sep 2023 16:35:13 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74006 PM Netanyahu's Meeting With Elon Musk Should Focus On Emergency Battery Storage Program For Apartment Buildings https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74005 <p>PM Netanyahu's Meeting With Elon Musk Should Focus On Emergency Battery <br /> Storage Program For Apartment Buildings <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 September 2023 <br /> <br /> Given the escalating geopolitical tensions and the potential threats we <br /> face, it is imperative that Prime Minister Netanyahu focus his upcoming <br /> meeting with Elon Musk on launching an emergency program to deploy Tesla's <br /> advanced battery storage systems suitable for apartment buildings across <br /> Israel. <br /> <br /> The increasing risk of a series of large-scale rocket attacks and armed <br /> drones poses a significant threat to our power distribution infrastructure. <br /> These attack could also severely damage, or even incapacitate, a portion of <br /> Israel's electricity production capacity. Tesla's battery storage systems <br /> would make a significant contribution towards addressing these challenges. <br /> <br /> The benefits of installing these battery storage systems in apartment <br /> buildings across the country are multifaceted: <br /> <br /> Bridging Power Outages: In the unfortunate event of our infrastructure being <br /> damaged, these battery systems will serve as a lifeline, enabling civilians <br /> to have access to essential power until the infrastructure is restored. <br /> Solar panels might be added, where workable, to add to the resilience of the <br /> system. <br /> <br /> Mitigating Rolling Brownouts: If our electricity production capacity is <br /> compromised, leading to rolling brownouts, these batteries will ensure that <br /> our citizens can maintain critical power. This includes essential functions <br /> such as refrigeration, lighting, and other vital services. The batteries can <br /> charge when power is available, ensuring uninterrupted critical power supply <br /> during brownouts. <br /> <br /> Enhancing Resilience and Reducing Public Pressure: Improving the resilience <br /> of our population to the impact of such attacks serves a dual purpose. It <br /> not only safeguards our citizens but also reduces public pressure for <br /> retaliatory responses of a nature that the government may wish to avoid. <br /> <br /> Tesla's Battery Systems: Tesla offers a range of battery storage solutions <br /> that could be tailored to our needs. The Tesla Powerwall, for instance, is <br /> designed for residential use and can be installed individually or in tandem <br /> to increase capacity. For larger buildings or complexes, multiple Powerwalls <br /> can be combined to create a more robust system. <br /> <br /> Financial Considerations: It's essential to make these systems accessible to <br /> all. For apartment committees in affluent areas, easy payment terms could be <br /> offered for system installation. In contrast, in lower-income apartment <br /> buildings, the government might consider subsidies or outright payment for <br /> the systems, ensuring that every citizen, regardless of economic status, is <br /> protected. <br /> <br /> Engagement with Elon Musk: The success of this initiative hinges on Mr. <br /> Musk's commitment. We need him to allocate production and supply capacity <br /> specifically for this emergency program. Additionally, assigning a dedicated <br /> Tesla team to interface with an Israeli team would expedite the program's <br /> implementation. It's worth noting that while Tesla's significant battery <br /> business dealings in Israel with Nofar Energy focus on large storage systems <br /> for solar energy fields, our requirement is distinct and caters to <br /> individual buildings. <br /> <br /> Decentralized Systems for Enhanced Security: One of the primary reasons for <br /> advocating individual apartment building systems is their inherent security <br /> advantage. Decentralized systems are challenging to target, whereas <br /> neighborhood storage systems could easily become prime targets, especially <br /> in an era where low-cost attack drones are proliferating. <br /> <br /> The integration of Tesla's battery storage systems will not only provide a <br /> safety net for our civilians but also send a strong message of resilience <br /> and preparedness to our adversaries. It will showcase our commitment to <br /> safeguarding our nation and its people against any threat. <br /> <br /> I appreciate that its possible to talk with Mr. Musk about AI and autonomous <br /> cars but given the current situation the safety and security of our nation <br /> depend on proactive measures like addressing the challenges of massive power <br /> outages which could results from unprecedented airborne attacks against the <br /> civilian Israeli population. <br /> <br /> Discussions with Mr. Musk about AI and autonomous civilian vehicles can <br /> wait. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sun, 17 Sep 2023 15:10:46 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74005 Weekly Commentary: Israeli Response To Iranian Airport In Lebanon Illustrates Israel DETERRED https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74004 <p>Weekly Commentary: Israeli Response To Iranian Airport In Lebanon <br /> Illustrates Israel DETERRED <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 September 2023 <br /> <br /> Israel knew that the information was available to the news media. <br /> <br /> Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC obtained by The Associated Press from <br /> July 28 showed work on a 1.2 kilometer (3,937-foot) runway with hangars <br /> constructed on a tarmac just east of the runway in Lebanon 20 kilometers (12 <br /> miles) from Israel's northern border. <br /> <br /> So this week Defense Minister Yoav Gallant opted to share the news with the <br /> citizens of Israel that since last November Israel has been monitoring the <br /> Iranian construction of this airport. <br /> <br /> Only monitoring. <br /> <br /> If the same activity were taking place inside Syria we would have bombed the <br /> heavy earth moving equipment as they were leveling the field, killing the <br /> operators of the machines so that their potential replacements would have <br /> second thoughts about accepting the job. We wouldn't take credit for the <br /> bombing of course. Because action speaks a lot louder than words. <br /> <br /> But Lebanon is a different story. <br /> <br /> And so, instead of actually doing something, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant <br /> shared photos of the site, and warned that if we are attacked that Hezbollah <br /> and Lebanon would "pay a heavy price." <br /> <br /> Is Hezbollah shaking in fear or laughter? <br /> <br /> I fear something much worse. <br /> <br /> If knowledge that this 11 month old secret was about to be featured in a <br /> foreign news report compelled Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to share this <br /> Iranian threat with the Israeli public what OTHER major threats have <br /> developed in Lebanon which are ALSO NOT BEING ADDRESSED which the public <br /> doesn't know about? <br /> <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Wed, 13 Sep 2023 19:43:44 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74004