IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Unity Required to Save Israel From Hareidi Party

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 19:19:58 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Unity Required to Save Israel From Hareidi Party
Blackmail
Dr. Aaron Lerner
4 December 2024

The Haredi paper Mishpacha reports that Yahadut Hatorah is planning to
submit two bills to the Knesset: a "draft law," which would be more
appropriately labeled a "haredi draft exemption law," and a law to dissolve
the Knesset.

Both laws are set to proceed to the third and final vote, with the threat
that if the ruling coalition doesn't support the draft exemption law, the
Haredi MKs will join the opposition during the third and final vote to
dissolve the Knesset, triggering elections 90 days later.

There are three options:

Option #1: The ruling coalition gives in to the Haredi blackmail and passes
the Haredi draft-exemption law.
If the blackmail succeeds, the Haredi MKs will then be expected by their
constituents to protect Haredim who choose a life of poverty from the
increases in national insurance and municipal tax rates scheduled to take
effect in January. It can also be anticipated that arrangements will be made
to allow Haredi educational institutions to continue operating without
serious financial or academic oversight.

Option #2: Elections.
A caretaker government would be in place during a critical window of
international upheaval, as well as the first months of the Trump
Administration.

Option #3: An Emergency Zionist Government to serve until the 27 October
2026 elections.
An Emergency Zionist Government composed of the Zionist parties would
legislate and implement the dramatic reform policies needed to ensure
Israel's future.
The coalition's goal would be to end the system of support for able-bodied
men who choose poverty and to eliminate financial support for educational
institutions (up to high school) that fail to provide students with the
basic education needed to participate productively in the Israeli economy.
Regarding IDF service, no new Draft Law would be enacted, leaving the matter
in the hands of the IDF.

Option #1 would be a disaster for the country.
Option #2 would be a loss.
Option #3 would secure our future.

My fervent hope is that Zionist party leaders seize the opportunity created
by this Haredi blackmail to pursue Option #3.

If this were to transpire, then, as the Tannaic sage Nachum Ish Gamzu said,
"This too is for the good."

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Unofficial translation of proposed Bill on the Transfer of Confidential Information to the Prime Minister and Minister of Defense

Sun, 01 Dec 2024 17:13:27 -0500

Unofficial translation of proposed Bill on the Transfer of Confidential Information to the Prime Minister and Minister of Defense
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 December 2024

Under current law, when the heads of the various branches of the security establishment decide not to bring information to the attention of the Prime Minister or Defense Minister people serving under them in the security branches cannot share the information with the Prime Minister or Minister of Defense.

Security branch leaders argue now that if the Prime Minister or Defense Minister want to see a specific piece of information that they can.

But this, of course, requires that the Prime Minister or Minister of Defense KNOWS what to ask for!

Dear Reader: It pains me greatly to share with you that these senior people have made this argument with a straight face.

It further pains me greatly to share with you that the news media is sharing this argument with the public as if it a perfectly reasonable defense of the current arrangement rather than an insult to our intelligence (no pun intended).

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara opposes the law on the grounds that it could undermine the hierarchical structure of the security establishment.

Dear Reader: Under the current set-up, the absolute lowest level person in each of the various branches of the security establishment can go over the heads of every person in the chain of command to directly share information with the head of their branch.

This arrangement is not considered a threat to the hierarchical structure of the security establishment but instead a vital feature to ensure that no level in the chain of command can stop the transfer of what someone below that person considers to be critical information.

It is not clear why extending this arrangement to reach the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense is a dramatically greater "threat" to the hierarchical structure of the security establishment.

The following is a translation of the proposed law just endorsed by the Government. ,

The Twenty-Fifth Knesset

Initiators: Members of Knesset Hanoch Dov Milvitzky
Amit Halevi

P/5083/25

Bill on the Transfer of Confidential Information to the Prime Minister and Ministers (Legislative Amendments), 5785–2024

Amendment to the Military Justice Law

In the Military Justice Law, 5715–1955:

(1) In Section 57, the existing text shall be designated as subsection "(a)", and after it shall come:

"(b) The provisions of subsection (a) shall not apply to a soldier who has conveyed information as stated in that subsection to the Prime Minister or the Minister of Defense, even if he did so without authorization."

(2) In Section 73, the existing text shall be designated as subsection "(a)", and after it shall come:

"(b) The provisions of subsection (a) shall not apply to a soldier who has conveyed information to the Prime Minister or the Minister of Defense, even if he thereby exceeded his authority."

Amendment to the Penal Law

In the Penal Law, 5737–1977, at the end of Section 113a shall come:

"The provisions of this section shall not apply to someone who has conveyed confidential information to the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, or to a minister whose area of responsibility includes the secret matters to which the confidential information pertains, as the case may be, even if that person was not authorized to do so."

Amendment to the General Security Service Law

In the General Security Service Law, 5762–2002:

(1) In Section 17(b), after paragraph (3) shall come:

"(4) To the Prime Minister."

(2) In Section 19, at the end shall come:

"(d) The provisions of this section shall not apply to the transfer of information as stated in subsection (a) to the Prime Minister."

Explanatory Notes

During the "Operation Iron Swords" war, there were numerous reports of critical security information being withheld from the Prime Minister specifically, and the political echelon in general. After the Yom Kippur War, the IDF's Intelligence Directorate (AMAN) established a Control Division to evaluate less probable scenarios ("Devil’s Advocate") to prevent the recurrence of strategic misconceptions, such as those preceding that war.

Prior to the outbreak of "Operation Iron Swords," many military personnel were exposed to critical information regarding "Operation Jericho," Hamas's planned invasion of Israeli territory. However, this information did not reach the Prime Minister or the political echelon. Even during the war, critical documents concerning enemy intentions did not make it to decision-makers.

To ensure that the political echelon, especially the Prime Minister, who bears the grave responsibility of sending our best sons and daughters into battle, receives all the necessary information for decision-making and to eliminate any concerns among security personnel about sharing such information, it is proposed to prevent any criminalization of the transfer of vital information to the responsible minister or the Prime Minister.

Submitted to the Speaker of the Knesset and deputies
Placed on the Knesset's table on
24th of Cheshvan 5785 (November 25, 2024)
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Urgently Need Post-Biden Blackmail Strategy

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 18:47:14 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Urgently Need Post-Biden Blackmail Strategy
Dr. Aaron Lerner 28 November 2024

There's a bullet in the chamber of the gun pressed up against our temple.

And we are fully aware that once a United Nations Security Council
Resolution invoking Chapter VII of the UN Charter "bullet" is fired, a
Russian veto would prevent President Trump from readily undoing the damage.

Yes, Obama's "parting gift" to the Jewish State was a UNSC Resolution that
didn't invoke Chapter VII.

But times have changed.

So, for all my anger and frustration that my prime minister yielded to the
blackmailer's bullet, I understand why Mr. Netanyahu accepted a ridiculous
deal that, if implemented, will ultimately result in Hezbollah, under the
(at best) blind eyes of UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army, completely rebuilding
and restocking their forward positions for a massive ground invasion.

The challenge Prime Minister Netanyahu faces is to prepare a "package" for
President Trump - a viable, robust resolution of the situation in the north
that Trump can embrace and adopt as his alternative to the sham deal imposed
by the Biden administration.

Such a package would include intuitive features like a deep "no man's land"
north of the Lebanese border.

To be clear: this won't be a simple task.

Yes, we have many allies in Mr. Trump's team, but all kinds of international
players will reach out to President Trump with exciting, ostensibly
"groundbreaking" deals.

Our package must be capable of being implemented in days rather than weeks
or months.

And with no cost to America.

Of course, I am not describing something to be shared only with Mr. Trump on
January 20th.

We should already be working feverishly, in coordination with our American
allies, so the program can be locked in with President-elect Trump in the
days to come.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Parody: IDF COS and CENTCOM Commander Discuss Lebanon Ceasefire

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 12:21:41 -0500

Parody: IDF COS and CENTCOM Commander Discuss Lebanon Ceasefire
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 November 2024

Participants:
• Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi, Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
• General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, Commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM)

Setting: A secure video conference room. The IDF Chief of Staff, Aviv, and the CENTCOM Commander, Erik, are speaking candidly. Both are relaxed but clearly frustrated with the situation.

Aviv (IDF Chief of Staff):
Erik, good to see you. I wish it were under better circumstances. So, tell me, are we really going to pretend this “resiliency and viability” thing is something we believe in?

Erik (CENTCOM Commander):
Aviv, good to see you too. And no, I’m not about to start pretending now. This whole thing feels like a house of cards built on quicksand. Honestly, who comes up with this stuff?

Aviv:
Probably someone who’s never had to deal with a Hezbollah operative hiding a rocket launcher under his kid’s bed. They’re asking us to sign off on a plan that puts the Lebanese Army—a force we both know has more leaks than a rusty submarine—right up against my border.

Erik:
And let’s not forget, some of those “army personnel” might as well be wearing Hezbollah t-shirts. You’re telling me they’re going to stop weapons smuggling? Aviv, come on.

Aviv:
Exactly. And then there’s this genius idea of “rebuilding villages.” Sure, let’s rebuild their homes and give them nice hiding spots for their next stash of rockets. All under the guise of humanitarian aid. I can already hear the excuses: “Oh, we didn’t know the cement was going to an underground bunker.”

Erik:
(Laughs) And then it’ll be our fault for “overreacting” when we discover the bunker. Aviv, I can see the headlines now: “Israeli Aggression Destroys Civilian Infrastructure.” It’s like déjà vu.

Aviv:
Erik, you think you’ll be off the hook? No chance. The moment an American observer shows up at one of these villages, Hezbollah will roll out the red carpet for a media circus. “Look, CENTCOM endorses our peaceful efforts.” And God forbid one of your guys actually tells the truth about what’s going on there—Washington will crucify him.

Erik:
Oh, I know. I’ve been in those meetings. The political folks want to sell this ceasefire as the next Camp David, and the last thing they want is a report from CENTCOM saying, “This isn’t going to work.” They’ll expect me to spin this into something it’s not.

Aviv:
Erik, I’ve got my own pressure. If I tell Netanyahu that this plan is unworkable, they’ll accuse me of being a warmonger. But if I go along with it and this thing blows up—literally—it’s on me.

Erik:
Same here. If I sign off and things go south, it’s, “Why didn’t CENTCOM see this coming?” And if I refuse to sign off, they’ll say I’m not a team player. Either way, we’re stuck.

Aviv:
(Sighs) The crazy part is, we both know how this ends. Hezbollah rebuilds, re-arms, and in a year—or less—we’re right back here, only with more rockets pointed at my cities. And this time, we’ll have to clean up a much bigger mess.

Erik:
Yeah, and it won’t just be you cleaning it up. If this spirals, the U.S. gets dragged in deeper, trying to manage a “peace” that never really existed.

Aviv:
So, what do we do? They want a letter saying this is viable. Can we, in good conscience, give them that?

Erik:
Not a chance. I’m not going to be the guy who signs off on this and pretends it’s all rainbows and unicorns. I can’t send that to President Biden.

Aviv:
And I’m not sending anything to Netanyahu. Let them negotiate their political victory. Just leave us out of it.

Erik:
Agreed. Let’s just say we need “more time to assess.” That buys us a few weeks, at least.

Aviv:
Sounds like a plan. Erik, always a pleasure to vent with someone who gets it.

Erik:
Same here, Aviv. Let’s just hope we’re wrong about how bad this will get—but I’m not holding my breath.

Aviv:
(Laughs) Me neither. Take care, Erik.

Erik:
You too, Aviv.

End of Video Call.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Don't Forget or Forgive: J Street Endorses ICC Arrest Warrants and Arms Boycott

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 17:06:19 -0500

Don't Forget or Forgive: J Street Endorses ICC Arrest Warrants and Arms
Boycott
Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 November 2024

1. J Street supports arrest warrants issued for PM Netanyahu and Former DM
Gallant
"This deeply distressing ruling is one more clear sign of the lasting damage
this extreme right-wing government is doing to the State of Israel, its
place in the world and its long-term security."
"Leaders in the United States may agree or disagree with the decision today.
But we urge them not to score political points by attacking courts or
undermining the rule of law. Calls to penalize or intimidate court officials
undermine our values and do not serve the American interest in a stable
world order rooted in the rule of law."
J Street Statement on International Criminal Court Warrants
November 21, 2024
https://jstreet.org/press-releases/j-street-statement-on-international-crimi
nal-court-warrants/

2. J-Steet supports denying Israel tank and mortar rounds and smart-bomb
kits in the middle of a war

"More than a third of the Democrats in the Senate chose to cast a symbolic
but deeply meaningful vote of disapproval of some limited offensive weapons
transfers to Israel."
J Street Welcomes Groundbreaking Senate Debate Over Gaza War
November 20, 2024
https://jstreet.org/press-releases/j-street-welcomes-groundbreaking-senate-d
ebate-over-gaza-war/

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Snap Annexation Via Government Decision As Response To ICC

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 16:37:55 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Snap Annexation Via Government Decision As Response To
ICC
Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 November 2024

There are politicians calling for the extension of Israeli law to areas of
Judea and Samaria (aka annexation) as a response to the ICC arrest warrants
for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former DM Gallant.

There are two ways to annex: legislation and a Government decision.

Here is the full text of the law that relating to annexation via Government
decision:

Ordinance Law and Administration, 1948
...
11B The law, jurisdiction and administration of the State shall apply to any
area of the Land of Israel that the Government sets in an order.

That's right. All it takes is a map and a vote of the Cabinet.

The same action via legislation opens a huge window of opportunity for
massive pressure to come to bear before the third and final vote is cast to
approve the action.

In the case of a Government decision, in the worst case it is published as
being on the agenda 48 hours (including the Sabbath) before the vote.

But 48 hours, or for that matter, any amount of time before the ministers
sit in a room without their mobile phones, is too much time.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has the option, as prime minister, to introduce the
move to a vote without it having been on the agenda and dismiss, on the
spot, any minister who objects to the snap vote taking place.

That makes a lot more sense.

And it would leverage the ICC action today into a blessing.

What about the Saudis and others?

Even if we were to annex all of Area C plus Jericho, the rest of the Jordan
Valley and Kalkilya to smooth out the line, the Saudis and the others could
argue that they are progressing with relations with the Jewish State to
prevent us from annexing even more territory!

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il