IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il Middle East News & Analysis en-US 1574075059 1574075059 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Capalon Internet 2.0 imra@netvision.net.il (Aaron Lerner) News & Analysis IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il https://www.imra.org.il/imra_sm.png 144 97 Dr. Raz Zimmt to IMRA: Iran's policy towards Israel not expected to be https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73599 <p>Dr. Raz Zimmt to IMRA: Iran's policy towards Israel not expected to be<br /> changed by domestic protests<br /> Follow up on:<br /> Iran's fuel riots: a snapshot and initial significance<br /> By Dr. Raz Zimmt - INSS<br /> https://bit.ly/2NWybcd</p> <p>From: Dr. Aaron Lerner<br /> 18 November 2019<br /> Subject: Question for you - Iran's fuel riots: a snapshot and initial<br /> significance</p> <p>Hi,</p> <p>Very interesting article.</p> <p>One question – under normal circumstances one would expect the temptation to<br /> be great to deflect the public’s attention from domestic problems by having<br /> an active conflict with Israel via their agents.</p> <p>But today the protestors are specifically citing the funding of Hizbullah as<br /> a source of the economic problems and calling for Iran NOT to devote<br /> resources to the struggle against the Jewish State.</p> <p>So – from Israel’s standpoint, how does this change our assessment of the<br /> situation vis-à-vis how it impacts us?</p> <p>Best regards,<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA www.imra.org.il<br /> PS: I would like to share your response with IMRA readers</p> <p>From: Raz Zimmt<br /> Sent: Monday, November 18, 2019 11:37 AM<br /> To: imra@netvision.net.il<br /> Subject: Re: Question for you - Iran's fuel riots: a snapshot and initial<br /> significance</p> <p>Dear Dr. Lerner,</p> <p>Thank you for your email.</p> <p>I don't think Iran has any interest in engaging itself in an active conflict<br /> with Israel because it fully realizes its potentially dire consequences for<br /> both its economy and security interests. Iran has usually tried to limit its<br /> conflict with Israel to the use of proxies without getting directly involved<br /> in a full-scale confrontation with Israel.</p> <p>On the other hand, Iran considers its continued support for its proxies and<br /> partners in the region, including Hizballah and the Palestinian<br /> organizations as the core of its regional strategy both from ideological<br /> point of view (considering its support as its revolutionary and religious<br /> responsibility) also from its national interests aimed to expand its<br /> regional influence and to deter its rivals, including Israel. Therefore,<br /> despite public reservations concerning Iranian resources devoted to the<br /> struggle against Israel (which are, by the way, nothing new, as we have seen<br /> those voices in almost every wave of protests in Iran since late 1990s), I<br /> see no reason to believe that Iran will change its policy towards Israel or<br /> reconsider its support for its regional proxies.</p> <p>Best regards,</p> <p>Dr. Raz Zimmt</p> <p>INSS</p> <p>________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Mon, 18 Nov 2019 11:04:19 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73599 Weekly Commentary: Hamas Is Patient - Not Deterred https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73598 <p>Weekly Commentary: Hamas Is Patient - Not Deterred<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 November, 2019</p> <p>Hamas wants to pick the time and place for conflict with Israel.</p> <p>This is a matter of patience rather deterrence.</p> <p>Under quiet for quiet (Q4Q) Hamas has a free hand to devote a major portion<br /> of its resources to prepare for the conflict. They continue to fabricate<br /> and smuggle in rockets, armed drones and much more in ever increasing<br /> quantities and ever improved versions. Their army has implemented an<br /> ongoing training program including large scale exercises.</p> <p>It would be a terrible mistake to interpret the decision by Hamas not to<br /> participate so far in the current round of fighting as an indication that<br /> they are somehow shifting from "guns" to "butter".<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Thu, 14 Nov 2019 22:12:50 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73598 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73597 Tue, 12 Nov 2019 22:28:31 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73597 Weekly Commentary: Adjust Target Bank In Light of Social-Political Developments in Lebanon https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73596 <p>Weekly Commentary: Adjust Target Bank In Light of Social-Political<br /> Developments in Lebanon<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 November, 2019</p> <p>No one knows how the popular protest in Lebanon will play out.</p> <p>And that makes it that much more difficult to predict what Hezbollah, which<br /> faces the possibility of suffering a major loss in power and position in<br /> Lebanon, may do in order to quell the protests.</p> <p>It would hardly be surprising if Hezbollah sought to divert the wrath of the<br /> public towards Israel.</p> <p>Which brings us to the IDF "target bank".</p> <p>The target bank includes Lebanese infrastructure that we might destroy in<br /> response to Hezbollah attacks on Israeli civilian targets.</p> <p>We have to ask ourselves if destroying Lebanese infrastructure would serve<br /> the interests of Hezbollah.</p> <p>Would the Lebanese public scorn Hezbollah for its role in the series of<br /> events that ultimately caused Israel to plunge Lebanon into darkness or<br /> would the Israeli attacks focus the Lebanese public against a common Israeli<br /> enemy?</p> <p>It is best that we invest a lot of creative thinking now to come up with<br /> targets that meet two criteria:</p> <p>#1. Their destruction is perceived by all players as a serious quid pro<br /> quo. We cannot afford to be seen as weak.</p> <p>#2. Their destruction does not cause the Lebanese civilian population to<br /> unite against us.</p> <p>Beyond this we face the incredible challenge of a multitude of legitimate<br /> military targets (rockets, armories, etc.) that Hezbollah has placed behind<br /> civilian human shields that we must destroy in the event of a conflict in<br /> order to preserve our own security. Advance multidisciplinary preparations<br /> to meet this technological-diplomatic-PR challenge are critical.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 08 Nov 2019 14:08:56 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73596 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73595 Wed, 06 Nov 2019 21:17:27 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73595 Weekly Commentary: Is historic window of opportunity slamming shut? https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73594 <p>Weekly Commentary: Is historic window of opportunity slamming shut?<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 November, 2019</p> <p>For 8 years we were told that our hands were tied because Mr. Obama was<br /> president.</p> <p>And when Mr. Trump came into office there was always a good reason to<br /> postpone exploiting what has been seen as an historic window of opportunity<br /> to take our destiny in our hands.</p> <p>So here we are, with the days ticking away, and its not even clear when we<br /> will finally have a new government in place with the clear authority to take<br /> such major moves. And this despite the broad consensus supporting many of<br /> these measures (for example applying Israeli law to the Jordan Valley).</p> <p>Let's be clear: peel away the rhetoric of our Sunni neighbors and the truth<br /> is that their willingness to work together to address shared concerns (e.g.<br /> Iran) would not be impacted one iota if we took dramatic historic action<br /> this side of the Jordan River.</p> <p>Curiously, the remarks of the Democratic presidential candidates should<br /> serve, if anything, to prod us to act now.</p> <p>After all, their calls are to halt funding and support for MORE activity in<br /> the "West Bank".</p> <p>So far no candidate has suggested blackmailing the Jewish State into<br /> dividing Jerusalem or withdrawing to the Green Line.</p> <p>Yes, we have a lot on our plates, what with heightened security concerns.</p> <p>But when one considers that the most important actions relating to our<br /> sovereignty this side of the Jordan River can be accomplished in literally<br /> one cabinet meeting, there is most definitely still enough time remaining<br /> before the 2020 US elections.</p> <p>________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 01 Nov 2019 13:25:07 +0000 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73594