IMRA Middle East News Updates

Challenge: Trump and Sharon - Family Before Country

Sun, 14 Jun 2026 04:30:34 -0400

Challenge: Trump and Sharon - Family Before Country
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 June 2026

Ariel Sharon was a sharp military genius whose own experience in the system
put him in the unusual position that, despite his rank, he was always open
to challenging the defense establishment consensus.

Sharon consistently did what he thought was the right thing to do for the
nation.

That was, until he felt compelled to unilaterally withdraw from the Gaza
Strip to keep his family out of jail.

Sharon chose family over country.

President Trump may not share Sharon's skill set, but over the past year
this mantra has been drilled into him: No enrichment, no missiles, or no
deal.

But with the mid-term elections rapidly approaching and the real possibility
that a Democrat majority in the House could be the first domino to fall in a
process sending him to prison and the loss of the Trump family fortune,
President Trump is also pushing hard in a desperate move which puts family
over country.

I honestly don't know how we are going to get out of this.

I honestly don't know what combination of technologies and alliances can mee
the timeline which takes Iran , after this deal is signed, to posses such a
massive number of long range ballistic missiles and launchers that we can no
longer defend ourselves.

And to add to the challenge: the Iranians only have the deadline for our
destruction slated for 9 September, 2040.

A patient Iran can build up those missiles without launching them for more
than another decade if they so choose.

Hezbollah can do the same within the "quiet for quiet" arrangement.

So while Iran will have enough ballistic missiles to effectively destroy our
country in a few years, they might opt to wait until our warnings are
stripped of any credibility as we are ridiculed for repeatedly "crying
wolf".

I listen to some podcasts from what might be considered mainline Democrats
as well as elements in the right and when they talk about us it is clear
that there is nothing we can do will placate them.

Making a deal with the Palestinians, even dividing Jerusalem and retreating
to the "Auschwitz lines" of the pre-1967 borders, won't do the trick.

I honestly don't know how we are going to get out of this.

But I do know one thing: the less time we spend focused on assigning the
blame (with an eye on how that might impact our own Knesset elections) and
instead work, united, to meet this existential challenge, the greater our
chances of success.

Because success isn't a political goal.

It is an existential need.
________________________________________
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Arab-Israeli relations

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Netanyahu: No Iranian nukes while I am PM. Apres moi le deluge?

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:16:44 -0400

Netanyahu: No Iranian nukes while I am PM. Apres moi le deluge?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 June 2026

In the statement below, Prime Minister Netanyahu assures the Israeli public
that the Iranians won't have nukes as long as he is prime minister.

Apres moi le deluge?

As prime minister, Mr. Netanyahu's responsibility is not only to stop Iran
from having nukes while he is serving as prime minister but also to create
the conditions - diplomatic, military and otherwise - that Iran doesn't have
nukes when the day comes that someone else serves as Israel's prime
minister.

Here are examples of how world leaders talk - notice 'we' rather than 'I':

Menachem Begin 8 June 1981 after the strike on Iraq's reactor
'On no account shall we permit an enemy to develop weapons of mass
destruction against the people of Israel.'

Ronald Reagan 6 June 1984
'We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be
prepared, so we will always be free.'

Abraham Lincoln 19 November 1863
'... that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not
perish from the earth.'

Winston Churchill 4 June 1940
'...we shall never surrender.'

John F. Kennedy 20 January 1961
'Let every nation know that we shall pay any price, bear any burden to
assure the survival and the success of
liberty.'

George W. Bush 20 September 2001
'We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.'

Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this afternoon (Friday, 12 June 2026)
[translated from Hebrew]:

'As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel Iran will not have nuclear
weapons.

President Trump and I are in full agreement on this issue.

For over 30 years, I have been at the forefront of the international
struggle against Iran's nuclear program.

Were it not for this struggle, Iran would have long ago possessed atomic
bombs to destroy Israel.

Iran is working to destroy the Jewish state, and I am dedicating my life to
preventing them from doing so.

As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, this will not happen.'
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Weekly Commentary: Israel Needs To Plan For Possible Trump Impeachment Window

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:46:04 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Israel Needs To Plan For Possible Trump Impeachment
Window
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 June 2026

It would appear that Mr. Trump is going to reward Iran with the opportunity
to make billions in oil sales (and possibly enjoy the release of billions of
dollars in frozen Iranian assets ) in return for graciously agreeing to have
President Trump kick the "deal ball" down the road for sixty days.

So let's look beyond this 60 day window and consider another one.

If when the House of Representatives convenes on 3 January, 2027 it has a
Democrat majority, President Trump will quickly be facing impeachment
proceedings.

And while it is true that a special majority is needed in the Senate to
impeach, there is one critical unknown factor: to what extent did the people
who were involved in arranging for Mr. Trump's blind trust's fantastic stock
trades feel compelled to keep records squirreled away with an eye that these
records might be their "keep out of jail" card one day.

To be clear: if nothing illegal was going on in the activity of the blind
trust then this point is moot.

But if something was going on, this kind of evidence is probably the only
evidence which could compel some Republican senators to also vote for
impeachment.

And that would create a very tight window: from the moment that Mr. Trump
is aware that he is being betrayed to Mr. Vance becoming president.

That would be time for Mr. Trump to make history and time for Israel to try
to get something done before there's someone else sitting in the White
House.

We cannot discuss this with CENTCOM yet.

But it is only prudent for us to prepare a plan of action against Iran which
fits into such a tight window.

So that if, and that is a huge if, the ball drops for a highly certain
impeachment, we have everything thought out.

Because there most certainly won't be enough time to come up with a plan if
we wait.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Welcome to Chelm: A terrorist who infiltrates Israel from Lebanon and opens fire is apparently not considered an act requiring a response

Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:17:44 -0400

Welcome to Chelm: A terrorist who infiltrates Israel from Lebanon and opens
fire is apparently not considered an act requiring a response
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 June 2026

Today (Tuesday, 9.6.26), a Hezbollah terrorist infiltrated from Lebanon into
Israeli territory near Margaliot and opened fire.

If the terrorist had fired at Israel from inside Lebanon, according to the
policy, we would have fired at Beirut.

But since the terrorist fired only after infiltrating into Israeli
territory, apparently nothing will be done.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Massive Israeli attack on Hezbollah locations in Beirut and elsewhere not in South Lebanon in response to Iranian attack on Israel?

Sun, 07 Jun 2026 17:19:27 -0400

Massive Israeli attack on Hezbollah locations in Beirut and elsewhere not in
South Lebanon in response to Iranian attack on Israel?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 June 2026

After President Trump's call, via a conversation with an Israeli TV Channel
12 correspondent, for Israel not to attack Iran in response to a massive
Iranian missile attack against civilian Israeli areas since Israel succeeded
in intercepting all the missiles, Israeli talking heads began to suggest
that Israel may face technical problems attacking Iranian sites tonight in
the absence of US cooperation in mid-air refueling and other matters .

In sharp contrast, no such services and/or support is required for the
Israeli Air Force to carry out a massive attack on the many Hezbollah
armories and other facilities which have enjoyed a "President Trump Free
Pass" to build up without any Israeli interference as one of Mr. Trump's
ongoing concessions to Iran.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Co-Production But With Full Israeli Indigenous Production

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:43:35 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Co-Production But With Full Israeli Indigenous Production
Dr. Aaron Lerner 5 June 2026

Section 224 of the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act
for Fiscal Year 2027 (NDAA), titled the "United States-Israel Defense
Technology Cooperation Initiative," calls for the co-production of military
equipment with the idea that the United States would benefit from the
integration of Israeli technology in American equipment while Israel would
gain from co-producing equipment.

At the risk of offending my American readers, I am compelled to warn that we
Israelis must always keep in mind the very real possibility that supplies of
military equipment made in the USA may be either halted outright or
intentionally postponed in the future.

I would go so far as to suggest that when President Trump was recently
cursing out our Prime Minister for refusing to act against Israel's critical
interests, if Netanyahu had ultimately stood his ground, it is within the
range of possibilities that a furious President might have responded with
action relating to weapons supplies.

So while it could most certainly serve our joint interests to co-produce
military equipment with the United States, we need full Israeli indigenous
production as well.

That's not a set of tooling stored in an Israeli warehouse but actual serial
production of the complete product in Israel.

We need a domestic team with the experience which can only be gained by
engaging in production.

And we cannot find ourselves unable to complete production because the
Americans aren't shipping some widget which only they have been making in
the co-production.

I appreciate that this approach may be less efficient.

But we simply cannot afford arrangements based on the assumption that
everything will be OK.

In fact, I would go so far as to suggest that the temptation to halt
supplies to Israel would be substantially lower if the only result of such a
sanction is lost American jobs as the Israeli production line covers the
loss of American supplies by changing its export:domestic ratio.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il