IMRA Middle East News Updates

COS Zamir wrong to cite hostages to thwart victory

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 02:26:08 -0400

COS wrong to cite hostages to thwart victory
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 July 2025

Chief of Staff Zamir warned the cabinet that deepening the ground =
maneuver and continuing the fighting in Gaza would endanger the =
hostages.

With all due respect, the mistake from the very first day of the war was =
that we tied the IDF=E2=80=99s hands by restricting operations in order =
to avoid harming the hostages.

What=E2=80=99s strange to me is that, as a nation, we long ago =
internalized that sometimes difficult, even cruel decisions must be made =
- that we are mature enough to understand that the fate of the nation =
takes precedence over the fate of specific individuals.

Moreover, the cabinet approved a war against Iran when it was expected =
that there could be hundreds, if not thousands, of Israeli civilian =
casualties, along with air crews that would not return.

So I truly wonder, after all that, how the Chief of Staff recites =
talking points as if it is legitimate to sacrifice the entire state for =
the sake of the hostages.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus =
on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: http://www.imra.org.il

Hamas insists remain in power and armed - Lapid complains why no deal

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 05:34:16 -0400

Reality check: Hamas insists remain in power and armed - Lapid complains why
no deal
Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 June 2025

Reshet Bet 09:00 news bulletin features Mk Lapid attacking the government
for not making a deal with Hamas to end the war and release the hostages
followed by report of Hamas leader who states that Hamas insists that Hamas
remain in power in Gaza with their weapons.

https://youtu.be/cupg1VIcRjo

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - No Time For Games About Palestinian

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 12:50:48 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - No Time For Games About Palestinian State
Dr. Aaron Lerner 27 June 2025

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu knows that a sovereign Palestinian state
of any size would be a disaster.

He knows that once a sovereign state exists that it remains a sovereign
state even if it renounces whatever commitments it made to receive that
status.

And he knows that sovereignty can be exploited in terrible ways.

But I fear that Netanyahu may play poker with the sovereignty card.

Betting that he can make sure that it never happens.

But there are too many things which can go wrong.

Mr. Trump may press us in ways we were never pressed before if he believes
that creating a sovereign state is a necessary condition for reaching some
goal which he seeks in his term.

And there is no telling who the president will be after him.

Look at the surprise this week in New York.

Add to that: an Israeli leader after Netanyahu may have to deal with
pressure to come through with the promises Netanyahu made.

And let's be clear: any list of conditions we set will be met.

If we require that the sky is purple, we could have a world proclaiming it
is purple.

After all, the CIA continually signed off the PA was complying during the
early years of Oslo so that they could get USA funds.

And even if Mr. Netanyahu is certain he could always handle the challenge,
considering the disdain he has for the caliber of the other politicians
here, he most certainly doesn't think that anyone else could succeed.

So Mr. Netanyahu, please don't play games about Palestinian sovereignty.

Let's keep this card out of the game.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

China Rushing Equipment And Supplies For Iranian Ballistic Missile Construction

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:56:20 -0400

China Rushing Equipment And Supplies For Iranian Ballistic Missile
Construction
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 June 2025

Already on Friday, June 13th, literally hours after Israel attacked, Iran
placed a large rush order with China for the equipment and supplies for the
manufacture of ballistic missiles.

Some of the off-the-shelf equipment will already be on its way this week.

It will only take a few months for the special-order equipment, such as the
solid fuel mixers, to be supplied, as they are all repeat orders requiring
no engineering work.

In the absence of any restrictions, Iran's experienced production teams
could make 1,000 ballistic missiles from scratch in as little as half a year
and 2,000 within a year.

Now don't get me wrong.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and his team faced an existential challenge for the
Jewish State.

And they met this challenge in cooperation with President Trump.

I certainly don't have the chutzpah to second guess how this was handled.

Nevertheless, I am already raising the issue of the ballistic missiles out
of the fear that, since these conventional weapons aren't as "sexy" as
nukes, that we find Washington preferring to ignore the problem.

We have the advantage of being a democracy having elections next year at the
latest.

And I doubt any voter will soon forget the experience of sitting in a bomb
shelter knowing that they and their loved ones wouldn't survive the direct
hit of an Iranian ballistic missile.

This challenge must be addressed.

The clock is already ticking.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Israel On Its Own - Trump Gives Iran 14 days (For Now)?

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:27:42 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Israel On Its Own - Trump Gives Iran 14 days (For Now)?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 June 2025

At the White House Press Briefing just now, Karoline Leavitt anno0unced
that President Trump within the next two week will make a decision whether
to join in the military activity against Iran based on if he thinks Iran is
serious about negotiations.

Leavitt then went on to say that President Turmp insists that Iran not have
enrichment.

Why in the world it takes another two weeks to see if Iran changes its mind
isn't clear.

Here is my hope against hope:

Mr. Trump said "within two weeks".

This Saturday , 20 June, is indeed "within the next two weeks." SO maybe he
is trying to trick them into complacency.

But if Mr. Trump actually wants to push off a decision by another two weeks
then, unfortunately, I think we cannot wait for him to move.

In that case, we have to do the job ourselves.

Not to worry - when we succeed, Mr. Trump will no doubt send out a message
taking credit for it - "We Did It!"

To be clear, I do not take lightly the heavy cost we may bear in order to
do the job at Fordow which America could do at a fraction of the human cost.

But, for all intents and purposes, unless there's a surprise over the
weekend , Mr. Trump is no longer relevant to dealing with Fordow.

Tucker Carlson may have emasculated President Trump.

But Carlson cannot stop the Jewish State from saving itself, and the world,
from Iran.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

The Jewish People "owe" Yahya Sinwar for tipping the first domino which lead to the destruction of Hezbollah which made possible the war against Iran

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 08:53:16 -0400

HAMAS INTELLIGENCE BEFORE OCTOBER 2023 RECOMMENDED NOT TO ATTACK ISRAEL AT
THE TIME AND INSTEAD WAIT FOR THE COUNTRY TO FALL APART MORE
[Dr. Aaron Lerner - The Jewish People "owe" Yahya Sinwar for tipping the
first domino which lead to the destruction of Hezbollah which made possible
the war against Iran unfettered by fear of Hezbollah joining the fray with
hundreds of thousands of rockets and missiles.]

The July 2023 report ended with recommendations for exploiting the crisis in
Israel, particularly within the army, as a means to advance the vision of
"the destruction of Israel."

Their main recommendation was not to initiate a military confrontation but
rather to wait for the crisis to worsen and in the meantime to focus on
psychological warfare, including promoting the narrative of the collapse of
past Jewish political entities due to internal divisions and the failure of
Prime Minister Netanyahu to retrieve the bodies of the kidnapped soldiers
held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip

The Israeli protests against the judicial legislation as reflected in Hamas
documents
Published: 15/06/2025
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center
At the Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center
https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/the-israeli-protests-against-the-judici
al-legislation-as-reflected-in-hamas-documents/
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il