IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: "It's the Shidduch, Stupid" - Why Haredim Don't

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 18:12:35 -0400

Weekly Commentary: "It's the Shidduch, Stupid" - Why Haredim Don't Serve
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 March 2025

The overarching concern for the average Haredi young man is the quality of
the shidduch he will eventually get.

And this concern drives his decision-making process.

So when he chooses where to study, it isn't based on his abilities or
interests but rather on what he thinks will get him the best shidduch.

I know Haredi teenagers who love science and have made the painful choice to
attend an institution bereft of science studies for the sake of their future
shidduch.

Let's be clear: Even Haredi young men with a priori low prospects for a
shidduch due to family background and other factors are focused on getting
the best shidduch possible.

And today, army service dramatically reduces the quality of the shidduch a
young Haredi man can get.

As long as this remains the case, the overwhelming majority of young Haredi
men will continue to do everything in their power to avoid army service
before marriage.

I do not claim to know how to change this situation.

I am only suggesting that this is a factor that should not be ignored by
policymakers.

A policy that exempts serious yeshiva students from the draft, for example,
might serve to raise the "shidduch cost" of serving in the IDF.

On the other hand, a program that drafts young Haredim from the top yeshivas
of the country into any kind of service that requires them to wear uniforms
and hold weapons - even for a short period - might remove the stigma from
IDF service.

One thing is certain: As long as IDF service is seen as a major impediment
to getting a good shidduch, friendly talk won't go very far.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Trump Envoy Wants to Split The Difference With Hamas?

Sun, 09 Mar 2025 18:01:49 -0400

Trump Envoy Wants to Split The Difference With Hamas?
". dialogue means sitting hearing what someone wants and then identifying
does it fit with what we want or not and then how can you get somewhere in
the middle and not have a war."
Trump hostage envoy Adam Boehler describing his talks with Hamas on Fox New
Sunday 9 March 2025
https://youtu.be/leiKyEgS26g?si=fSO8zOeDNOY5FGv0

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Security Echelon Only Recommended Abandoning Judicial Reform - Not Preparing For Conflict

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 06:58:19 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Security Echelon Only Recommended Abandoning Judicial
Reform - Not Preparing For Conflict
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 March 2025

During the entire period leading to the October 7 2023 disaster the security
echelon had only one recommendation to the political echelon: abandon
judicial reform.

And now this political recommendation is being cited as the efforts of the
security echelon to prevent war.

But by coming empty handed to the political echelon, without any
recommendations which reflected a genuine belief that there was a danger of
war, the security echelon stripped itself of any standing in the eyes of the
political echelon.

And there was a lot to do.

Already back on 27 February 2022, in the wake of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, I published a call for an "overall ramp-up in development and
production of defense systems/equipment with a shift to made In Israel
production to minimize the possibility that third parties can impact timely
supplies while delinking the programs from budget decisions made across the
Atlantic."

Instead, a yihye bseder (it will be OK) attitude prevailed.

In January 2023 the United States sent 300,000 155mm artillery shells from
the War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel (WRSA-I) to the Ukraine.

It was only on August 1, 2023 that The Israel Ministry of Defense's
Directorate of Production and Procurement (DOPP) signed an agreement with
Elbit Systems to procure tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells.

That's right. We were short the 300,000 and we only got around to ordering
tens of thousands over half a year later!

If the security echelon genuinely thought there was a danger, we would have
been ordering hundreds of thousands of made in Israel artillery shells back
that January.

And we would have purchased the ceramic vests, checked the batteries of the
sniper scopes and a hundred of other things which were missing on October
7th.

None of the above actions would have been the kind of "noise" which could
have "accelerated" the realization of war threats which the security echelon
cited to justify their recommendation that judicial reform be abandoned.

And this is only the tip of the iceberg,

So please spare us the criticism of the political echelon for ignoring these
warnings.

Don't get me wrong about judicial reform.

The team handling judicial reform made a disastrous mistake by following the
standard legislative approaching of loading the draft legislation with
elements to concede to the opposition in bargaining.

It was clear from day one that there were many good Israelis who were
terrified by the idea that the drafts were going to be enacted as is.

But the judicial reform isn't the story here.

Itis that the security echelon, in the critical period before October 7 2023,
acted like politicians instead of security experts.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Were MFO reports of Egyptian Treaty Violations Kept Secret?

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 18:18:19 -0500

Were MFO reports of Egyptian Treaty Violations Kept Secret?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 3 March 2025

Recently the reports of massive Egyptian violations of the terms of the 1979
treaty in the form of troop deployments and miliary facilities in the Sinai
have made it into the mass media.

Has the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) been sharing this
information for years with Egypt and Israel?

See below excerpts of the treaty and as well as the Protocol establishing
the MFO.

The MFO was supposed to check out Egyptian compliance in all the zones of
the Sinai

A search finds no explicit evidence in readily available public sources of a
formal agreement between Egypt and Israel to change the periodic
verification frequency from "not less than twice a month."

Which leaves us to disturbing questions:

#1. Has the MFO been reporting the Egyptian violations on a regular basis to
the Israeli Defense Forces' International Cooperation Division, part of the
IDF Planning Directorate?

#2. Who in the Government of Israel has been receiving these reports?

#3. Has the appropriate Knesset subcommittee received these reports?

#4. At what level has it been decided, for literally decades, to ignore the
MFO reports of these serious Egyptian violations?

#5. Why weren't these violations rectified within 48 hours?

From: Dr. Aaron Lerner
Sent: Monday, March 3, 2025 2:39 PM
To: ENQUIRY, MEDIA (MFO-Rome)
Subject: Technical question: Can the MFO, at its own initiative, launch an
inquiry into Egyptian force deployments and military installations in the
Sinai which may not comply with the Treaty without a request from Israel?

Dear MFO,

Technical question: Can the MFO, at its own initiative, launch an inquiry
into Egyptian force deployments and military installations in the Sinai
which may not comply with the Treaty without a request from Israel?

Best regards,
Aaron

From: ENQUIRY, MEDIA (MFO-Rome)
Sent: Monday, March 3, 2025 6:19 PM
To: Dr. Aaron Lerner
Subject: RE: Technical question: Can the MFO, at its own initiative, launch
an inquiry into Egyptian force deployments and military installations in the
Sinai which may not comply with the Treaty without a request from Israel?

Dear Dr. Lerner,

Thank you for your interest in the MFO and our work. The Treaty and the
Protocol task the MFO with 1) operating checkpoints, reconnaissance patrols,
and observation posts along the international boundary and Line B, and
within Zone C, 2) conducting periodic verification of the implementation of
the provisions of Annex I of the Treaty of Peace not less than twice a month
unless otherwise agreed with the Treaty Parties, Egypt and Israel, and 3)
conducting additional verifications within 48 hours after receipt of a
request from either Treaty Party. (The MFO is also tasked with ensuring
freedom of navigation through the Strait of Tiran in accordance with Article
V of the Treaty of Peace but that is not relevant to your query.)

In all cases, reporting on MFO findings are provided to the Treaty Parties,
Egypt and Israel, only.

Sincerely,

the Multinational Force and Observers
=====
Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty
March 26, 1979

Annex I
Protocol Concerning Israeli Withdrawal and Security Agreements
Article VI
United Nations Operations
1. The Parties will request the United Nations to provide forces and
observers to supervise the implementation of this Annex and employ their
best efforts to prevent any violation of its terms.
2. With respect to these United Nations forces and observers, as
appropriate, the Parties agree to request the following arrangements:
...
2.2. Periodic verification of the implementation of the provisions of this
Annex will be carried out not less than twice a month unless otherwise
agreed by the Parties.
...
3. The arrangements described in this article for each zone will be
implemented in ones A, B, and C by the United Nations Force and in Zone D by
the United Nations Observers.
..
4. The United Nations Force and observers will report their findings to both
Parties.
5. The United Nations Force and Observers operating in the Zones will enjoy
freedom of movement and other facilities necessary for the performance of
their tasks.

"Protocol Between the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the
Government of the State of Israel Establishing the Multinational Force and
Observers (MFO), with Annex"
August 3, 1981

Functions and Responsibilities of the MFO
8. The mission of the MFO shall be to undertake the functions and
responsibilities stipulated in the Treaty for the United Nations Forces and
observers.
9. The MFO shall supervise the implementation of Annex I and employ its best
efforts to prevent any violation of its terms.
10. With respect to the MFO, as appropriate, the Parties agree to the
following arrangements:
...
(b) Periodic verification of the implementation of the provisions of Annex I
will be carried out not less than twice a month unless otherwise agreed by
the parties.
(c) Additional verifications within 48 hours after the receipt of a request
from either party.
...
11. When a violation has been confirmed by the MFO, it shall be rectified by
the respective party within 48 hours. The party shall notify the MFO of the
rectification.
.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Key Conclusion From October 2023 Disaster Ignored -

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 06:16:54 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Key Conclusion From October 2023 Disaster Ignored -
Critical That Security Personnel Can Contact Political Echelon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 27 February 2025

They aren't connecting the dots!

Everyone in Israel is asking why Hamas's attack plan, codenamed "Jericho
Wall," as well as the warnings of the IDF spotters, was ignored, but the
glaringly obvious operational conclusion is missing from the conversation.

Everyone knows that the Minister of Defense and the Prime Minister didn't
even know about "Jericho Wall".

We also are witness to the infantile argument that if, by some miracle, PM
Netanyahu had searched specifically for "Jericho Wall", a document he didn't
know existed, he could have found it among the hundreds of thousands of
documents in the security data base.

To be clear: I don't know if things would have played out differently if the
DM and PM had been aware of this information.

Maybe they would have also ignored it.

But it wasn't up to the security echelon to make this decision.

I am not raising this issue to defend Netanyahu from criticism. Based on
open-source information, I was crying out for years about Hamas and
Hezbollah, warning that they are "patient" rather than "deterred".

The security echelon already has a set-up which allows for anyone in the
security echelon to jump the chain of command to provide critical
information to the head of their organization.

We urgently need to extend this arrangement to its logical conclusion: a
set-up which allows for anyone in the security echelon to jump the chain of
command to provide critical information to the heads of the political
echelon, the Minister of Defense, and the Prime Minister.

The DM and PM won't be flooded with reports and warnings from low level
people in the security echelon for the simple reason that they won't benefit
from the protections of whistle blowers.

They will be literally betting their careers on the importance of the
information they are sharing.

From what we know today of the frustration of the lower echelons dealing
with "Jericho Wall" and the spotters, It made sense that these same people
didn't contact the top of their own security groups because they knew that
the security echelon was blinded by the "conception".

It is reasonable, however, to conclude that they would have reached out to
Netanyahu if there was a way to do it, knowing that if there was a record
that the information was brought to his attention that Netanyahu, ever
fearful of future commissions of enquiry, would have acted on it.

It is with a heavy heart that I note that even in the national camp there
are many who vociferously oppose making it possible for people in the
security echelon to jump the chain of command to reach the PM and DM with
critical information.

For the life of me I don't know why so many good Israelis are unable to
connect the dots.

There is legislation stuck in the Knesset addressing this issue.

Even a dog who gets hit by a car learns not to go into the street again.

We urgently need to learn our lesson.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Transcript - Israeli Radio spreads and bolsters "Hamas' Psychological Terror"

Sun, 23 Feb 2025 04:24:52 -0500

Transcript - Israeli Radio spreads and bolsters "Hamas' Psychological Terror"
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 February 2025

Kan Reshet Bet - an Israel Government radio station, identified a recording
it was about to broadcast as being " part of Hamas' psychological terror".

They then proceeded to bolster the impact of this "psychological terror" by
featuring recordings supporting the goals of the "psychological terror",
namely for Israel to accept any and every Hamas demand.

The following is a translation of an excerpt from the transcript - Kan
Reshet Bet 07:00, February 23, 2025 news bulletin:

.As part of Hamas' psychological terror, the hostages Gai Gilboa-Dalal and
Evyatar David, who are still being held captive by Hamas, were brought
yesterday to the site where Omer Shem Tov, Eliya Cohen, and Omer Wenkert
were released. They were forced to watch the event from inside a vehicle.

In a video released by Hamas, the hostages addressed Prime Minister
Netanyahu, saying: "We saw our friends being released after 500 days; we
just want this to end. Please, I am asking the government- you started
something, now finish it, please."

The families of Gai Gilboa-Dalal and Evyatar David approved the publication
of the video. Ilan Gilboa-Dalal, Gai's father, told Yair Weinerberg on Kan
11:

"I am seeing my son for the first time in 16 months, hearing his voice for
the first time. For me, it gives me some air, knowing that he is okay, that
he doesn't appear injured. I think people need to see this, to witness the
abuse they are enduring - being taken to see their friends being freed, only
to be sent back to the tunnels."

Einav Tsangauker, the mother of Matan, who has been held captive in Gaza for
506 days, demanded last night that the Prime Minister fully implement the
hostage return agreement and bring them all home. She made these statements
at a protest near the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il