IMRA Middle East News Updates

With Hezbollah's CAC Crippled Not The Time For Diplomacy

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:06:52 -0400

With Hezbollah's CAC Crippled Not The Time For Diplomacy
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 September 2024

There's a binder on a shelf.

A "playbook" which includes thousands of Hezbollah pagers detonating.

I can accept the possibility that prior to this Tuesday it was assumed that
the detonation of the pagers would take place within the context of a
different scenario.

But there's another binder on the shelf with a playbook which we have been
constantly practicing and updating.

The operation to take out Hezbollah's long and medium range rockets and
guided missiles.

So here we are.

With a golden window of opportunity as Hezbollah's command and control is
seriously crippled.

I am writing these words after midnight.

And I wonder: will we pull that second binder off the shelf tonight or hand
over our destiny to Hezbollah by waiting for a retaliatory strike?

Will Binyamin Netanyahu opt to go down in history as a "profile in courage"
or "profile of a perpetual can kicker"?
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Deterrence or First Step?

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 13:45:47 -0400

Deterrence or First Step?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 September 2024

Earlier today I wrote:
###
Afterword: My hope of hopes is that this drama is just a ploy to convince
our enemies (and allies?) that we aren't about to launch a massive surprise
opening attack.
###

Now the question is more if the operation just carried out is for the
purposes of "deterrence" or to facilitate a massive strike now against
Hezbollah's rockets and missiles etc.

I fervently hope that the latter is the case.

Because, as we have learned the hard way, deterrence is terribly short
lived.
_______________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

As a member of the Knesset Subcommittee on Intelligence Sa'ar Is Up To Speed

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 05:37:08 -0400

As a member of the Knesset Subcommittee on Intelligence Sa'ar Is Up To Speed

Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 September 2024

At this critical time, the Jewish State needs statesmen and not a room of
like-minded brass.

Thanks to his very active participation in the Knesset Subcommittee on
Intelligence, Secret Services, and POWs/MIAs, civilian MK Gideon Sa'ar is up
to speed to take the position of defense minister.

We have a long history of civilians knowing better than brass.

The most dramatic example is Amir Peretz - the civilian ridiculed by a
photograph of him looking through capped binoculars.

If you understand Hebrew I urged you to listen to this audio: MK Peretz
describes how he bucked the brass and insisted that the IAF first destroy
long range missiles at start of 2nd Lebanon War.
http://youtu.be/SM_LMb10qsQ

MK Amir Peretz described in a live interview broadcast on the noon news
magazine of IDF Radio on 15 September 2013 how, as Minister of Defense at
the start of the Second Lebanon War, he insisted that the first IAF
Operation of the war be to destroy Hezbollah's long-range missiles despite
the strong recommendation of the military that the first operation focus on
striking other targets. This decision has been recognized as one of the
critical good decisions of the war.

Back to the present.

We need to think beyond Wednesday, September or even 2024.

The like-minded brass, including the current Minister of Defense, have shown
in their recent policy recommendations that they are incapable of doing
this.

I want to be clear here.

Sa'ar has warts.

But as the People of the Book we are used to our leaders having warts.

Even Moses made a mistake. The Bible tells us he paid dearly for his error
by being denied entry to the Promised Land.

If Sa'ar wasn't a very active participation in the Knesset Subcommittee on
Intelligence, Secret Services, and POWs/MIAs I would be terrified by the
idea that he could take the place of Gallant as we, hopefully, launch a war
to destroy Hezbollah's long and medium range rockets and guided missiles in
Lebanon.

But he is.

So remember this when you hear the talking heads slamming the move.

Afterword: My hope of hopes is that this drama is just a ploy to convince
our enemies (and allies?) that we aren't about to launch a massive surprise
opening attack.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Technical note: under Biden deal Hamas can slaughter all but 7 hostages

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 15:18:19 -0400

Technical note: under Biden deal Hamas can slaughter all but 7 hostages
Dr, Aaron Lerner 14 September 2024

Full text of Israel's Gaza ceasefire proposal that was announced by Biden
Source: Middle East Eyes
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gaza-war-text-ceasefire-proposal-approved
-israel

The First stage (42 days):
...
4. Exchange of hostages and prisoners:

During this stage, Hamas shall release 33 of the Israeli hostages (living
and human remains) who are women (civilians and soldiers), children (under
19 years who are not soldiers), elderly (above 50 years) and ill and wounded
civilians...
...
5. The mechanism for exchange of hostages and prisoners between the two
sides during Stage 1:

a. On day 1, Hamas will release 3 Israeli civilian female hostages. On day
7, Hamas will release additional 4 Israeli civilian female hostages.
Thereafter, Hamas will release 3 Israeli hostages every 7 days, beginning
with women (civilians and soldiers), and all living hostages to be released
before the release of human remains...
...
d. In the event that the number of living Israeli hostages to be released
during this stage does not reach 33, the difference will be completed
through the release of a corresponding number of human remains from the same
categories for this stage. ...
######

Note that the run-off sentence which addresses the timing of the release of
dead hostages appears after describing the first two releases:

- Day 1 3 hostages
- Day 7 4 hostages
==============
Total 7 live hostages

Hamas can slaughter the rest without it constituting a violation of the
deal.

But if they are smart. And they are smart. Hamas will slaughter everyone
remaining in that category and then run videos of ostensibly live hostages
not from that category so that those supporting the deal-at-any-price will
continue pushing.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Update: aircraft carrier Roosevelt redeployed to Far East - Weekly Commentary: Destroy Hezbollah's Missiles Before November 5th Elections

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 05:48:04 -0400

Update aircraft carrier Roosevelt redeployed to Far East
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 September 2024

As noted in the commentary, let’s not forget that our region is a side show as compared to the world war scale clash in the offing for America in the Far East. There is no telling if or when the American forces now deployed heavily in the region may be compelled to redeploy elsewhere.

The Roosevelt was held in the region waiting for the arrival of USS Abraham Lincoln and they doubled-up for a short period of time.

On 10 September, a massive joint China - Russia exercise, "Ocean 2024" began in preparation for a huge conflict with the U.S. in the Far East.

According to the AP, the Roosevelt will be in the Indo-Pacific Command’s region already today.
https://apnews.com/article/navy-carrier-israel-hamas-middle-east-64833ca78aad930ae77dd87c17f48085

Weekly Commentary: Destroy Hezbollah's Missiles Before November 5th Elections
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 September 2024

The Harris team has clearly decided that overtly screwing Israel could hurt her election prospects.

So this window of opportunity to destroy Hezbollah's missiles with American support may slam shut as the polls close on November 5th.

The Americans are warning us not to destroy the hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles now while they have a large force deployed in the region.

They warn that Israel will suffer considerable damage before it completes the operation. They also express concern that U.S. forces deployed in the region could face blowback from the Iranian coalition in response to the operation.

To be clear: the Americans don’t have the chutzpah to claim that those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles won’t ultimately raIn down on us.

They just don’t want to be around when it happens.

And they don’t want this inevitable clash to take place before the elections as their "don't overtly screw Israel before the elections" guideline means that the huge American deployment in the region can't turn tail when we start getting bombed.

Conclusion: now is the time to destroy the Hezbollah threat.

Let’s not be naive.

No “iron clad deal” which leaves those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles in place will be worth the paper it’s written on.

And the redeployment of Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border, if this is somehow achieved, would have absolutely no impact on the threat presented by those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles.

Don’t get me wrong:

I’m aware that our weapons inventories are far from ideal.

But I am also aware that the supply situation can be drastically worse after November 5th.

I am aware that we may have new laser defense systems deployed possibly at the end of 2025.

But I also know that our enemies may not graciously wait until December 2025 to attack. And I am also confident that the Iranian coalition, along with China and Russia, are all burning the midnight oil to come up with countermeasures against laser defense systems.

Can Israel bet on a Trump victory?

I wonder if deal maker Trump would prefer some kind of agreement which looks good on paper over Israel destroying those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles.

And let’s not forget that our region is a side show as compared to the world war scale clash in the offing for America in the Far East. There is no telling if or when the American forces now deployed heavily in the region may be compelled to redeploy elsewhere.

Yes.

Harris will be furious.

But that’s not the question.

The question is what the Biden Harris administration would do if we opt to save ourselves before November 5th.

A note: I live in Raanana, not Roanoke. My son and nephews all do reserve duty. I don't take war lightly. But sometimes that is the cost of survival.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Destroy Hezbollah's Missiles Before November 5th Elections

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 13:25:57 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Destroy Hezbollah's Missiles Before November 5th Elections
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 September 2024

The Harris team has clearly decided that overtly screwing Israel could hurt her election prospects.

So this window of opportunity to destroy Hezbollah's missiles with American support may slam shut as the polls close on November 5th.

The Americans are warning us not to destroy the hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles now while they have a large force deployed in the region.

They warn that Israel will suffer considerable damage before it completes the operation. They also express concern that U.S. forces deployed in the region could face blowback from the Iranian coalition in response to the operation.

To be clear: the Americans don’t have the chutzpah to claim that those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles won’t ultimately raIn down on us.

They just don’t want to be around when it happens.

And they don’t want this inevitable clash to take place before the elections as their "don't overtly screw Israel before the elections" guideline means that the huge American deployment in the region can't turn tail when we start getting bombed.

Conclusion: now is the time to destroy the Hezbollah threat.

Let’s not be naive.

No “iron clad deal” which leaves those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles in place will be worth the paper it’s written on.

And the redeployment of Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border, if this is somehow achieved, would have absolutely no impact on the threat presented by those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles.

Don’t get me wrong:

I’m aware that our weapons inventories are far from ideal.

But I am also aware that the supply situation can be drastically worse after November 5th.

I am aware that we may have new laser defense systems deployed possibly at the end of 2025.

But I also know that our enemies may not graciously wait until December 2025 to attack. And I am also confident that the Iranian coalition, along with China and Russia, are all burning the midnight oil to come up with countermeasures against laser defense systems.

Can Israel bet on a Trump victory?

I wonder if deal maker Trump would prefer some kind of agreement which looks good on paper over Israel destroying those hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and guided missiles.

And let’s not forget that our region is a side show as compared to the world war scale clash in the offing for America in the Far East. There is no telling if or when the American forces now deployed heavily in the region may be compelled to redeploy elsewhere..

Yes.

Harris will be furious.

But that’s not the question.

The question is what the Biden Harris administration would do if we opt to save ourselves before November 5th.

A note: I live in Raanana, not Roanoke. My son and nephews all do reserve duty. I don't take war lightly. But sometimes that is the cost of survival.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il