IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Why is Suspected Iranian Agent Ariane Tabatabai Still In The Pentagon With Access To Secrets?

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 10:44:28 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Why is Suspected Iranian Agent Ariane Tabatabai Still In The Pentagon With Access To Secrets?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 September 2023

It seems like a day doesn't go by without American officials publicly
commenting about domestic Israeli affairs.

I'm not expecting symmetry.

But when the Biden administration lets some suspected of working for Iran
remain in their sensitive Pentagon job this definitely calls for something
to be said.

Ariane Tabatabai is the current chief of staff for the assistant secretary
of defense for special operations in the Pentagon.

I shudder when I think what Israeli intelligence, plans, etc. Ariane
Tabatabai CONTINUES to have access to.

The moment on MONDAY September 25th that Iran International and Semafor
published their investigation of Ariane Tabatabai's allegiance to Iran and
active participation as an agent of Iran she should have been out the door.
https://content.iranintl.com/en/investigates/inside-tehran-softwar/
https://www.semafor.com/article/09/25/2023/inside-irans-influence-operation

Yet still on THURSDAY September 28th Chris Maier, assistant secretary of
defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, told a House
Foreign Affairs Committee that while the granting of Tabatabai's security
clearance was being investigated that she was apparently still working!

If this is the attitude of the Biden administration about secrets and Iran
we Israelis have to do some very hard thinking about what to do next.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Commentary: Dear Dems - Instead of seeking to screw us - go for cheap oil until the elections

Mon, 25 Sep 2023 18:57:56 -0400

Commentary: Dear Dems - Instead of seeking to screw us - go for cheap oil
until the elections
Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 September 2023

Dear Democrat Party Senator: All the talking heads are explaining how the
only way to convince you guys to vote for a Saudi deal is if we Israelis are
screwed.

And while I appreciate that there may be no greater pleasure for you and the
Israelis who have been encouraging you to screw us than to somehow force
Binyamin Netanyahu to make major sacrifices to the "one state solution"
Moloch, I would like to suggest that with around 400 days left before the
November 2024 elections that you put practicality ahead of passion.

Screwing Israel feels good but it doesn't get you any extra votes.

The voters who want to see Israel screwed are already voting for your party.

So who should be the address when you think of the pay-off needed to garner
your support for a Saudi deal?

Remember "It's the economy, stupid."?

Right. Don't be stupid.

Remember when the Saudis rebuffed President Biden's efforts to convince them
to keep oil prices down before the 2022 elections?

Mr. Biden was on the right track but lacked the traction.

The Saudi deal provides this traction.

Low gasoline prices up to November 2024 is a win-win:
- Voters go to the polls happy that gasoline is cheap - they only find out
after their votes are counted that the relief was temporary.
- The Russians and Iranians are screwed by the reduced revenue.
- The lower oil prices renders the American shale oil you despise not
economical and discourages, in general, the development of domestic fossil
fuel sources.

An American-operated enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia which includes
features which render it inoperable in the absence of the American
technicians is hardly science fiction.

So take a break from the lobbying of the Israelis and their American allies
urging you to force Israel to make dangerous sacrifices "for its own good"
and do what's good for the November 2024 elections.

"It's the economy, stupid."
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

50 years after Yom Kippur War - 3 Observations (false narrative against Golda)

Sat, 23 Sep 2023 17:16:20 -0400

50 years after Yom Kippur War - 3 Observations (false narrative against
Golda)
Dr. Aaron Lerner (Originally distributed on 12 September 2013 - 40 years to
the War

#1 Thankfully we ignored Abie Nathan's calls on Voice of Peace radio

It was 1973 and I was on Kibbutz Saad in the Negev.

Yom Kippur was just over and in a few minutes I was supposed to go over to
the bomb shelter to help clear it out. The nightmarish war was well underway
and many had already been called up and left Saad before the fast ended.

I flipped on my radio trying to get some news about the war and there was
someone on in English urging the soldiers to put down their weapons. Not to
fight. I thought it was an Arab station. But it wasn't. It was Abie Nathan
on the Voice of Peace.

On August 2, 1995 I asked him about it:

IMRA: Did you ever get any flack from people who remember that you called
for soldiers to put down their arms at the start of the Yom Kippur War?

Nathan: "We asked for people on both sides to put down their weapons and
many people still remember it. I know many Egyptians who tell me that they
heard the broadcast. I was broadcasting off of Port Said. We had just
started broadcasting on the ship. It was on Yom Kippur and all the
[Israeli - IMRA] radio stations were silent. Since I was off of Port Said I
was really among the first to know that the war had started.

"No one thought there was anything wrong with calling for the soldiers not
to fight. If the soldiers on both sides had only listened to me it would
have left the war for the generals to fight."

But he wasn't calling in Arabic. It was in English.

And while some Egyptians may have heard him. his audience was overwhelmingly
Israeli.

Thank God no Israeli soldier heeded his call.

#2. The Israeli victory

At the end of what Egypt terms the "victorious 1973 October War" the
Egyptian Third Army was "victoriously" trapped and "victoriously" starving
to death.

The "victorious" Egyptian Army met with the "defeated?" Israeli Army at
Kilometer 101.

But Kilometer 101 was not 101 kilometers from either Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.

It was 101 kilometers from Cairo.

By the same token, the "victorious" Syrian Army did not reach a ceasefire
with the "defeated" IDF with the "victorious" Syrian army on the road to
Haifa. Instead the "defeated" IDF was on the road to Damascus after pushing
back the "victorious" Syrian army.

#3. Sadat - Not Golda Meir - rejected negotiations to avoid Yom Kippur War

A. The Kissinger initiative

The following excerpt from "The Rabin Memoirs by Yitzhak Rabin" (pages
215-218) provides solid evidence that Prime Minister Golda Meir was open to
negotiating an Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai before the 1973 Yom Kippur
War. It was Anwar Sadat who opted for war over diplomacy.

...February 28 [AL: 1973]...Kissinger, who received me at the White House at
7:30 that evening with an omniscient expression on his face. "I imagine that
the prime minister has had a tough and depressing day," he said in what
sounded to me like a self-satisfied tone. ...he noted that his approach in
his talks with Hafez Ismail of Egypt had concentrated on the principle of
"security versus sovereignty." Translated into pragmatic terms, it meant
that Israel would have to accept Egyptian sovereignty over all of the Sinai
but that Egypt, in turn, would have to accept an Israeli military presence
in certain strategic positions, such as Sharm el-Sheikh (though he hastened
to add that such an Israeli military presence might have to be disguised as
a civilian one).

...Golda readily agreed, so long as it was understood that such explorations
would be undertaken with Israel's knowledge but not in her behalf. I
immediately notified Kissinger...

...In April, Dr. Kissinger continued his efforts to reach an understanding
with Hafez Ismail on the basis of the "security versus sovereignty" formula,
but in May President Sadat rejected the proposal - as he had earlier
rejected the idea of "proximity talks." By then Sadat was already fully
determined to go to war, and he was not interested in exploring any
political solution that was not set out purely on his own terms...."

B. The Israeli initiative

Ronen Pollak reported on Israel Radio 9 June 2013 that documents published
by the State Archives show that three months before the Yom Kippur War.
Prime Minister Golda Meir asked German Chancellor Willy Brant to send a
message to President Sadat of Egypt that Israel was willing to give up most
of the Sinai Peninsula, but stressed that Israel would not return to the '67
lines.

Israel did not report the move to the United States.

A German envoy met with the Egyptian President's senior advisor and
consultant Hafez Ismail who rejected the offer as long as Israel was not
willing to withdraw to the '67 lines.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - Please Don't Screw Up On The Deliverables

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 16:35:13 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - Please Don't Screw Up On The Deliverables
Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 September 2023

Kan, the Israeli public broadcaster, reports that Israeli and Saudi teams
are already meeting.

One thing they are no doubt discussing are the Israeli "deliverables" for
the Palestinians.

There's a lot of people around with one simple answer: for Area C: a Jewish
building freeze along with a moratorium on any Israeli action against
illegal Palestinian construction.

So it comes down to whether or not Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has
invested the time and effort to come up with a portfolio of deliverables
which don't undermine our interests.

Here's a few of my ideas:

#1. Ben Gurion Airport as the air gateway for all residents of Judea and
Samaria not identified specifically for special restrictions by the Israeli
security authorities. We are already doing this for those bearing US
passports.

#2. Adjustment of the delineation of Areas A, B and C without changing their
respective overall sizes so that some of the Palestinian communities which
have spilled over into Area C are part of Area A or B.

#3. Cooperation in launching industrial zones in Areas A & B with expedited
freight movement between these zones and both Israel and our ports.

#4. Expedited implementation of Plan 633-0523670 approved on 18 January 2021
for a rail connecting Erez Crossing adjacent to the Gaza Strip to Ashdod
Port thus slashing the cost and time for moving freight (including 20 and 40
foot containers) between the Gaza Strip and Ashdod Port.

To be clear: if it ends up that our deliverables are building freezes
and/or allowing the injection of a large American trained and armed
Palestinian force into our bedroom (of course with "iron clad guarantees"
that everything will be ok) then we will know that Mr. Netanyahu and his
team screwed up.

Because, regardless of the spinning, the truth is that the Saudis can live
with deliverables which improve Palestinians lives that don't screw Israel.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

PM Netanyahu's Meeting With Elon Musk Should Focus On Emergency Battery Storage Program For Apartment Buildings

Sun, 17 Sep 2023 15:10:46 -0400

PM Netanyahu's Meeting With Elon Musk Should Focus On Emergency Battery
Storage Program For Apartment Buildings
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 September 2023

Given the escalating geopolitical tensions and the potential threats we
face, it is imperative that Prime Minister Netanyahu focus his upcoming
meeting with Elon Musk on launching an emergency program to deploy Tesla's
advanced battery storage systems suitable for apartment buildings across
Israel.

The increasing risk of a series of large-scale rocket attacks and armed
drones poses a significant threat to our power distribution infrastructure.
These attack could also severely damage, or even incapacitate, a portion of
Israel's electricity production capacity. Tesla's battery storage systems
would make a significant contribution towards addressing these challenges.

The benefits of installing these battery storage systems in apartment
buildings across the country are multifaceted:

Bridging Power Outages: In the unfortunate event of our infrastructure being
damaged, these battery systems will serve as a lifeline, enabling civilians
to have access to essential power until the infrastructure is restored.
Solar panels might be added, where workable, to add to the resilience of the
system.

Mitigating Rolling Brownouts: If our electricity production capacity is
compromised, leading to rolling brownouts, these batteries will ensure that
our citizens can maintain critical power. This includes essential functions
such as refrigeration, lighting, and other vital services. The batteries can
charge when power is available, ensuring uninterrupted critical power supply
during brownouts.

Enhancing Resilience and Reducing Public Pressure: Improving the resilience
of our population to the impact of such attacks serves a dual purpose. It
not only safeguards our citizens but also reduces public pressure for
retaliatory responses of a nature that the government may wish to avoid.

Tesla's Battery Systems: Tesla offers a range of battery storage solutions
that could be tailored to our needs. The Tesla Powerwall, for instance, is
designed for residential use and can be installed individually or in tandem
to increase capacity. For larger buildings or complexes, multiple Powerwalls
can be combined to create a more robust system.

Financial Considerations: It's essential to make these systems accessible to
all. For apartment committees in affluent areas, easy payment terms could be
offered for system installation. In contrast, in lower-income apartment
buildings, the government might consider subsidies or outright payment for
the systems, ensuring that every citizen, regardless of economic status, is
protected.

Engagement with Elon Musk: The success of this initiative hinges on Mr.
Musk's commitment. We need him to allocate production and supply capacity
specifically for this emergency program. Additionally, assigning a dedicated
Tesla team to interface with an Israeli team would expedite the program's
implementation. It's worth noting that while Tesla's significant battery
business dealings in Israel with Nofar Energy focus on large storage systems
for solar energy fields, our requirement is distinct and caters to
individual buildings.

Decentralized Systems for Enhanced Security: One of the primary reasons for
advocating individual apartment building systems is their inherent security
advantage. Decentralized systems are challenging to target, whereas
neighborhood storage systems could easily become prime targets, especially
in an era where low-cost attack drones are proliferating.

The integration of Tesla's battery storage systems will not only provide a
safety net for our civilians but also send a strong message of resilience
and preparedness to our adversaries. It will showcase our commitment to
safeguarding our nation and its people against any threat.

I appreciate that its possible to talk with Mr. Musk about AI and autonomous
cars but given the current situation the safety and security of our nation
depend on proactive measures like addressing the challenges of massive power
outages which could results from unprecedented airborne attacks against the
civilian Israeli population.

Discussions with Mr. Musk about AI and autonomous civilian vehicles can
wait.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Israeli Response To Iranian Airport In Lebanon Illustrates Israel DETERRED

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 19:43:44 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Israeli Response To Iranian Airport In Lebanon
Illustrates Israel DETERRED
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 September 2023

Israel knew that the information was available to the news media.

Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC obtained by The Associated Press from
July 28 showed work on a 1.2 kilometer (3,937-foot) runway with hangars
constructed on a tarmac just east of the runway in Lebanon 20 kilometers (12
miles) from Israel's northern border.

So this week Defense Minister Yoav Gallant opted to share the news with the
citizens of Israel that since last November Israel has been monitoring the
Iranian construction of this airport.

Only monitoring.

If the same activity were taking place inside Syria we would have bombed the
heavy earth moving equipment as they were leveling the field, killing the
operators of the machines so that their potential replacements would have
second thoughts about accepting the job. We wouldn't take credit for the
bombing of course. Because action speaks a lot louder than words.

But Lebanon is a different story.

And so, instead of actually doing something, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant
shared photos of the site, and warned that if we are attacked that Hezbollah
and Lebanon would "pay a heavy price."

Is Hezbollah shaking in fear or laughter?

I fear something much worse.

If knowledge that this 11 month old secret was about to be featured in a
foreign news report compelled Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to share this
Iranian threat with the Israeli public what OTHER major threats have
developed in Lebanon which are ALSO NOT BEING ADDRESSED which the public
doesn't know about?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il