IMRA Middle East News Updates

President Trump: (Apres moi, le deluge) - Iran Can Nuke After 20 Years

Fri, 15 May 2026 08:42:10 -0400

President Trump: (Apres moi, le deluge) - Iran Can Nuke After 20 Years

Trump said his patience with Iran was running out and that he had agreed in talks with Xi that Tehran could not be allowed to ⁠have a nuclear weapon and must reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

He also said he was OK with Iran suspending its nuclear program for ⁠20 years, but that there has to be a "real" commitment from Tehran.

"Twenty years is enough, but the level of ⁠guarantee from them, it's got to be a real 20 years," Trump said.

Trevor Hunnicutt - ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE, May 15,2026 (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/trump-spoke-with-xi-about-lifting-sanctions-chinese-companies-that-buy-iranian-2026-05-15/

Weekly Commentary: Operation Lightning Strike – Squandered Opportunity To Prevent October 7th?

Thu, 14 May 2026 09:48:46 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Operation Lightning Strike – Squandered Opportunity To Prevent October 7th?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 May 2026

Let’s set the scene with this excerpt of an article based on documents seized by Israel:

###
Guardian of the Walls constituted a watershed conflict, with formative and multi-faceted effects on Hamas’s calculations. It remains key to understanding the strategic conditions that produced the October 7, 2023, offensive and to understanding Israel’s inability to grasp the conflict’s trajectory.

…During the conflict, Israel came under sporadic rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria; Israel twice thwarted Lebanese activists from infiltrating its border, and an armed drone launched from Iraq was intercepted by Israel.

…For Hamas, Guardian of the Walls was an inflection point in the conflict. Over the next few months, this would be represented in its leaders’ public statements. Days into the cease-fire, Al-Sinwar stated, “There already exists a prepared scenario, and we just conducted a dress rehearsal for it. Gaza will come out in all its force and its resistance. And the West Bank will explode in all its force. And our brethren in the occupied lands inside [Israel] will uprise.”

Daniel Sobelman (12 Jan 2026): The Strategic Origins of Hamas’s October 7 Attack, Studies in Conﬂict & Terrorism
###

Operation Guardian of the Walls took place 10 - 21 May 2021

Operation Lightning Strike was designed, based on intensive intelligence activity, to map out Hamas tunnels near the border and determine how to effectively destroy them in an IAF bombing attack.

Under Operation Lightning Strike, Hamas was expected to respond to the launching of an IDF ground force invasion of the Gaza Strip with a massive deployment of their best troops in those targeted Hamas tunnels. IAF attacks on the tunnels were expected to wipe out the Hamas forces in the tunnels. A stunning game changing loss for Hamas was anticipated.

But on 14 May 2021, when we launched Operation Lightning Strike, the news broadcasts said we were invading the Gaza Strip but the Hamas commanders saw that our forces didn’t actually move.

So Hamas didn’t fill the tunnels with troops.

The result was a massive IAF bombing attack on basically empty tunnels.

So we have two dramatically different outcomes of plans which had the potential to be game changers:

14 May 2021 Operation Lightning Strike: Stripped of its potential due to the failure to implement the actual plan.

17-18 September 2024 Beepers and walkie -talkies in Lebanon against Hezbollah: Thousands out of Hezbollah fighters out of action and the communication network for Hezbollah's command structure crippled.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Amit Segal: Lower the Knesset Threshold

Sun, 10 May 2026 08:42:06 -0400

The Lie of the Blocking Percentage
By Amit Segal
Video Link
https://x.com/amit_segal/status/2053361895629803531/video/1

Grok transcript and translation.

Do you remember when your kids were little and you built towers with big blocks? Then as they got older, the blocks got smaller — like Lego. Now tell me: which tower is more stable, better looking, more precise, and stands taller? Exactly — the one made of many small blocks.

This is precisely what happened with the electoral threshold (the minimum percentage of votes needed to enter the Knesset). When the state was founded, the threshold was very low — less than 1%. That’s why there were many single-MK parties, like the Yemenite Party or WIZO. Over time, people left those parties and supported raising the threshold.

The argument was that small parties make Israeli politics unstable. If we just get rid of them, we’ll have more stable governments, fewer extremists, and fewer sectorial interests. In 2014, Lieberman and Lapid raised it together. Today it stands at 3.25% — about four mandates, or nearly 200,000 votes for the next elections.

So, has our politics become more stable? Less extreme? Do governments last longer? The exact opposite.

Why did we have five election cycles? Because in 2019, seven right-wing mandates were wasted due to the threshold — Feiglin, Bennett, and others. Netanyahu lost his majority, and we went back to elections. And I still remember the night Bennett became prime minister — people celebrated in Rabin Square, and someone said, “I haven’t been this happy since Bennett failed to pass the threshold.”

Great — so you’re against a high threshold? Then remember 2022: Meretz fell below it, and Netanyahu got a full right-wing government where Ben-Gvir and Goldknopf held the keys. The Arab parties united out of fear of not passing the threshold.

What was the result? A significant increase in extremism. When you merge with Balad supporters, you start justifying them, then agreeing with them. Did raising the threshold reduce extremism, or did it do the opposite?

And let’s not forget the technical blocs. The whole idea was to keep “your side’s” small parties out. But they still exist — they just merge before elections and split afterward.

The real problem in Israel isn’t extremism from small parties, but the fragility and blackmail between the big parties. Demands for six mandates in the security cabinet, or seven in a ministry, or full exemptions for all Haredim from the army.

There’s another problem with a high threshold: new, positive forces in Israeli society have no chance to break through and make a difference.

Think of the tens of thousands of working Haredim — those who support their families and serve in the army. Who represents them? No one. Secular, Arab, and even religious politicians often work against them.

Now imagine lowering the threshold. Suddenly they could have one MK, then two, then four. Or think of the new generation of Arabs who want economic progress and oppose terror. Why isn’t there even one Arab MK in the Knesset who clearly says “Hamas and Hezbollah are terrorist organizations”?

Lowering the threshold won’t solve every problem. But the current system isn’t the solution either. It would open possibilities for every camp: the center-left could prove it doesn’t hate Haredim, the right could build a coalition with Arabs. Instead, we have a monopoly where big parties decide how much representation smaller groups get.

Politicians get angry when someone tries to open a closed door with a key. Well, it’s time to break that door down.

Weekly Commentary: Likud Official Puts Bennett's Choice of Mansour In Context

Sat, 09 May 2026 16:02:41 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Likud Official Puts Bennett's Choice of Mansour Abbas In
Context
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 May 2026

We have a lot of serious issues to contend with in the upcoming elections
here in Israel.

And it is those serious issues which I want our candidates to address.

The mantra that somehow Bennett's forming a government with Mansour Abbas
disqualifies Bennett turns our attention from the serious issues.

Hat's off to Attorney Michael Kleiner - President of the Supreme Court of
the Likud - for essentially putting this matter to bed in his weekly column
in Maariv on 8 May 2026.
https://www.maariv.co.il/news/opinions/article-1318749
[original is in Hebrew]

... Mansour Abbas, from the day he was elected to the Knesset, has voiced
opinions that had not been heard in our parts before. The crowning glory of
these was a sensitive and moving speech on Holocaust Remembrance Day that
delved into surprising depths and nuances.

In contrast to Anwar Sadat, who expressed willingness for a settlement,
Abbas projected yearning.

It is no coincidence that he is perceived as a refreshing phenomenon in the
eyes of a long line of figures on the right, including Rabbi Chaim Druckman,
who met with him and was captivated by his charm.

Abbas expressed willingness to allow the formation of a Netanyahu right-wing
government in the 24th Knesset, but the move was torpedoed by Smotrich,
which led to the establishment of the Bennett-Lapid government.

I was angry at Smotrich at the time, but in retrospect it is possible that
justice was on his side.

I believe Mansour Abbas, but as the leader of a political party he must
compromise with broad segments of his party's leadership, its activists, and
its electorate - segments that do not genuinely and wholeheartedly identify
with his worldview.

It is possible that if the electoral threshold had returned to more
reasonable dimensions, Abbas could have established a party in his own image
and likeness, one backed by an Arab public proud of its Israeliness and
wishing to preserve Israel as it is.

However, in its current format, the joining of Ra'am - as it was revealed in
the Bennett government - to a right-wing government would have dismantled
both the government and Ra'am itself.

In retrospect, I am not at all sure whether Smotrich was painting demons on
the wall when he opposed the formation of a minority government dependent on
Ra'am.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Ignore Pikaxe Mountain Today And Israel Will Have To Nuke It One Day

Wed, 06 May 2026 11:49:51 -0400

Ignore Pikaxe Mountain Today And Israel Will Have To Nuke It One Day
Dr. Aaron Lerner6 May 2026

With speculation today that President Trump is seeking to enter a deal
according to which Iran commits to a full moratorium on uranium enrichment
for a period of time, it is crucial not to ignore Pikaxe Mountain.

Pikaxe Mountain is anything but a secret Iranian facility.

Iran doesn't hide the existence of this huge underground facility carved so
deep into the granite mountain that only nukes can destroy it.

Iran doesn't even claim that the facility has nothing to do with its nuclear
project.

They claim, however, that no one can inspect the site, as there is no
nuclear material in the facility - only centrifuges for enriching uranium.

It is profoundly irresponsible for anyone to think that a moratorium will be
honored by Iran.

But even if they did, for every moratorium there is a day after the
moratorium ends.

So in a spectacular best-case situation, when the moratorium ends, the
Pikaxe Mountain facility will have so many top-of-the-line centrifuges in
place that they will be putting out substantial quantities of bomb-grade
material in no time.

And the only way to take out the facility will be with nukes.

We say "to 120" - so even Mr. Trump will live to see Israel forced to nuke
Iran if he agrees to a moratorium on enrichment rather than ensuring that
Iran is stripped of its enrichment capabilities.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Earmark IAI & Rafael Sales Proceeds To Expansion of Domestic Defense Manufacturing

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 14:49:38 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Earmark IAI & Rafael Sales Proceeds To Expansion of
Domestic Defense Manufacturing

Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 April 2026

Israel has a unique opportunity to convert a one-time privatization windfall
into lasting strategic strength.

The planned sale of 25 to 30 percent stakes in Israel Aerospace Industries
and Rafael is expected to raise between 40 and 50 billion shekels - roughly
$12 to $15 billion - equivalent to three to four years of regular U.S.
military aid in a single transaction.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly committed to a $110 billion,
ten-year program to expand domestic defense manufacturing.

Yet without a legal mechanism to ring-fence the proceeds of these sales, the
funds risk being absorbed into the general budget and diverted to short-term
political priorities instead of long-term military industrial capacity.

The solution is straightforward.

Israel already has the Citizens of Israel Fund (also known as the Israel
Citizens' Fund) as a working model for ring-fencing windfall revenues, along
with precedents - such as the Google-Wiz deal - for large transactions
settled in dollars. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has supported dollar
settlement since 2024.

Targeted legislation can establish a dedicated Defense Industrial Investment
Fund, allow the proceeds to be received in dollars and held offshore, and
legally restricted to capital investment in Israel's defense production
base.

This structure would enable Israel to execute the full sale in one or two
large blocks while global demand for defense assets remains elevated, rather
than spreading smaller tranches through 2027.

This arrangement would transform a fiscal windfall into a genuine strategic
industrial upgrade by ensuring that the funds are used as intended while
effectively neutralizing the impact on the shekel exchange rate of what
would otherwise be huge shekel transactions.

The window is open.

The mechanism is proven.

The only question is whether Jerusalem will seize the moment - or let
another privatization windfall dissolve into ordinary government spending.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il