IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: DM Can Veto Promises Related to Judea and Samaria

Thu, 24 Nov 2022 17:40:09 -0500

Content preview: Weekly Commentary: Defense Minister Can Pocket Veto Any Promise
Related to Judea and Samaria Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 November 2022 Smotrich is
not a child. He knows that if the minister of defense continues to have authority
over civil affairs in Judea and Samaria and Smotrich isn't the DM that literally
every promise made by Binyamin Netanyahu to his co [...]

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Weekly Commentary: Defense Minister Can Pocket Veto Any Promise Related to
Judea and Samaria
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 November 2022

Smotrich is not a child.

He knows that if the minister of defense continues to have authority over
civil affairs in Judea and Samaria and Smotrich isn't the DM that literally
every promise made by Binyamin Netanyahu to his coalition partners regarding
Judea and Samaria can be rendered worthless.

The DM has absolute authority to approve or refuse to approve the
construction of even a square centimeter.

The DM also effectively determines the extent to which there is active
enforcement of the law against illegal Arab construction in Area C.

The same talking heads who today are attacking Smotrich for insisting that
he either serves as DM or that authority for civil affairs in Judea and
Samaria be transferred to the Ministry of Finance with Smotrich holding that
portfolio will later ridicule him for being a patsy if he gives in only to
find that the DM Netanyahu appoints institutes a building freeze for Jews
and continues the hands off illegal Arab construction policy of DM Gantz.

One can still hold out hope that Binyamin Netanyahu is simply going through
the motions to prove to the Americans and others that he tried his best to
neutralize Smotrich but found himself left to choose between another round
of elections and ceding to Smotrich's demand.

If that is the case Netanyahu will be able to have his cake and eat it to.

When talking to foreign leaders Netanyahu can explain that he wanted a
freeze but his hands were tied. And when election are held again in a few
years Netanyahu can take credit for the Jewish construction and control of
illegal Arab construction.

________________________________________
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Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Triple Bonus If Smotrich Defense Minister

Sat, 19 Nov 2022 12:51:02 -0500

Content preview: Weekly Commentary: Triple Bonus If Smotrich Defense Minister
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 November, 2022 If Smotrich and Ben-Gvir don't blink there
is good reason to believe that Binyamin Netanyahu will, when left with no
time to spare on the clock, form a coalition government with Bezalel Smotrich
servi [...]

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Weekly Commentary: Triple Bonus If Smotrich Defense Minister
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 November, 2022

If Smotrich and Ben-Gvir don't blink there is good reason to believe that
Binyamin Netanyahu will, when left with no time to spare on the clock, form
a
coalition government with Bezalel Smotrich serving as minister of defense.

This will be a triple bonus for Israel:

#1. The appointment of anyone other than Smotrich will be interpreted by
the world as Netanyahu's acquiescing to pressure. When Israel gives into
pressure this only invites more pressure.

#2. Israel faces a dynamic unprecedented environment, both locally,
regionally and worldwide that requires a minister of defense who can think
out of the box untethered by a commitment to the common wisdom shared by
members and senior veterans of the defense establishment. This relates to
all levels and aspects of Israel's defense. Israeli ministers of defense
with civilian backgrounds have a track record of making critically better
choices not only regarding weapons systems but also in guiding the hammering
out of operational decisions.

Smotrich took the transportation portfolio with no formally relevant
training or experience. Yet despite this It wasn't long before he was
asking a lot of questions no one in the room ever thought of even
entertaining and the answers led to a dramatic leap forward in
transportation infrastructure construction.

Granted defense is considerably more challenging and complicated then
transportation. But that is exactly why it would be counterproductive to
have a minister of defense from the ranks who would be tempted to find
solace in embracing old approaches.

#3. The minister of defense calls the shots on Jewish construction in Judea
and Samaria and action against illegal Palestinian construction in Area C.
The Jewish State is expected to reach a population of 15 million by 2049,
and 20 million at the end of 2065. We simply cannot afford to lose Area C
through inaction.

Don't blink.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

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Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Observation: Is Netanyahu Showing World He Forced to Appoint Smotrich

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 03:57:41 -0500

Content preview: Observation: Is Netanyahu Showing World He Forced to Appoint
Smotrich DM? Dr. Aaron Lerner 16 November, 2022 Binyamin Netanyahu plays
chess in four dimensions so there are two radically different explanations
for the crisis we now have over the appointment of Bezalel Smotrich as defense
minister.

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Observation: Is Netanyahu Showing World He Forced to Appoint Smotrich DM?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 16 November, 2022

Binyamin Netanyahu plays chess in four dimensions so there are two radically
different explanations for the crisis we now have over the appointment of
Bezalel Smotrich as defense minister.

Option #1 Netanyahu genuinely wants to implement an across the board freeze
on Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria and a similarly strict freeze on
significant action against illegal Palestinian construction in Area C for
the foreseeable future and therefore cannot appoint Smotrich defense
minister since the DM has the independent authority to approve Jewish
construction as well as action against illegal Palestinian construction.

Option #2: Netanyahu wants to demonstrate to the world that he WANTED to
implement an across the board freeze on Jewish construction in Judea and
Samaria and a similarly strict freeze on significant action against illegal
Palestinian construction in Area C but that he was FORCED to appoint
Smotrich DM in order to successfully form his ruling coalition.

The theatrics we will observe will be identical.

In a series of interviews Netanyahu has cited making diplomatic relations
with the Saudis as a top priority. He has also explained to Likudnikim that
Israel has to hold back on activity which might anger the Biden
administration which remains in power for the next two years. In addition,
the vote by the UN General Assembly which sends us to the Hague for
effectively annexing Judea and Samaria via the continued "occupation"
provides another justification for an open-ended freeze.

I frankly doubt that ANYONE in the world, besides possibly Netanyahu's wife
and son, actually knows if the answer is Option #1 or Option #2.

But that does not matter for third parties.

If you think that we should not have a building freeze despite the arguments
for a freeze then you support Bezalel Smotrich being appointed defense
minister.

If you think that we should have a building freeze then you support the
moves to appoint someone else.

Count me among those who want Bezalel Smotrich appointed defense minister.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Does GA vote justify Netanyahu appointing Likud DM for building freeze?

Mon, 14 Nov 2022 01:22:12 -0500

Content preview: Observation: Does GA vote justify Netanyahu appointing Likud
DM for building freeze? Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 November 2022 Is the recent UN
General Assembly vote to have the Hague prosecute Israel for de facto annexing
Judea and Samaria behind Binyamin Netanyahu's announcement to Likud Party
leaders that he will appoint a [...]

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Observation: Does GA vote justify Netanyahu appointing Likud DM for building
freeze?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 November 2022

Is the recent UN General Assembly vote to have the Hague prosecute Israel
for de facto annexing Judea and Samaria behind Binyamin Netanyahu's
announcement to Likud Party leaders that he will appoint a member of the
Likud to be minister of defense?

On previous occasions that Israel faced proceedings in the Hague Mr.
Netanyahu opted to impose building freezes and suspend activity against
illegal Palestinian construction in Area C.

Appointing a Likud defense minister would insure that the minister of
defense, who has exclusive authority to approve construction as well as
guide enforcement policies against illegal Palestinian construction in Area
C, would freeze all activity at Mr. Netanyahu's instruction. It is not
clear that Netanyahu can rely on Smotrich to follow such instructions.

Binyamin Netanyahu can cite the UNGA vote as an unexpected development which
serves to invalidate any promises he may have made prior to the vote.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

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Arab-Israeli relations

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Bennett: Doubling Yeshiva students allowances economic moral error

Sat, 12 Nov 2022 17:39:01 -0500

Content preview: Naftali Bennett: The plan to double the allowances of Yeshiva
students is a serious economic and moral error Facebook November 11, 2022
The plan to double the allowances of Yeshiva students is a serious economic
and moral error.

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Naftali Bennett: The plan to double the allowances of Yeshiva students is a
serious economic and moral error
Facebook November 11, 2022

The plan to double the allowances of Yeshiva students is a serious economic
and moral error.

Doubling the allowances will hurt young haredis, how the public relates to
the Torah and the future of the State of Israel.

This, because the increased allowances will encourage more young people not
to go to work or study a profession, because it is more comfortable to stay
in the yeshiva.

Eventually they will drop out at a late age, without the ability to make a
living with quality work.

And so it will result in increasing poverty and their dependence on tax
payers from the rest of the population in Israel.

This cannot last for long.

Everybody knows that.

Unfortunately, the leaders of the parties are now afraid to say this out of
fear of the wrath of the haredi parties.

The haredis are our brothers.

And they are the fastest growing population in Israel.

Therefore their responsibility towards the country must grow accordingly.

I believe in the need to study Torah.

I appreciate and love studies.

The Torah protected the people of Israel and it is our foundation.

But if there is no flour - there is no Torah.

The idea that a group which is growing in size, will be funded more and more
by others whose proportion in the population is decreasing, is not
practical.

And quite frankly, even if the politicians are afraid to say it, it is not
ethical.

Imagine 7 soldiers carrying an eighth soldier on a stretcher.

It is definitely possible.

Now imagine 4 soldiers carrying 4 soldiers on a stretcher.

Impossible. And not fair either.

They will collapse and leave.

In the end, those bearing the stretcher will choose to go somewhere else
(easier today than ever) and instead of strengthening the Torah, the process
will, forefend, lead to a negative feeling towards the Torah.

Sometimes the action that is supposedly pleasant and helpful is actually
harmful.

Over the years I have worked to increase employment in the haredi society.

And I was also the first to come out with a real plan, pro haredi and not
populist ("From Discrimination to Integration") - the one we adopted in the
government I headed: A year ago we raised the soldiers' wages by 50% and
promoted lowering the exemption age for the haredis from 24 to 21.

The big test of the government that comes to power: Will the rate of
hareidis working in 3-4 years be higher or lower than today's rate.

Shabbat Shalom.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Civilians Better On Strategic Decisions Than Brass

Thu, 10 Nov 2022 18:34:50 -0500

Content preview: Weekly Commentary: Israeli Civilians Better On Strategic Security
Decisions Than Brass Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 November 2022 Recently Defense Minister
Gantz basically sneered in disgust at the idea that a civilian rather than
a fellow general might be the next minister of defense.

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Weekly Commentary: Israeli Civilians Better On Strategic Security Decisions
Than Brass
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 November 2022

Recently Defense Minister Gantz basically sneered in disgust at the idea
that a civilian rather than a fellow general might be the next minister of
defense.

I wonder if this reflects on how much consideration he has given, over the
years, when he found himself attending a meeting of the security cabinet and
a civilian had the chutzpah to be more than just part of an Amen choir.

But the truth is that Israeli civilians have frequently made better
decisions than the brass on military matters.

Consider a few examples:

Brass opposed building spy satellites:

Ehud Barak and others senior brass strongly opposed Israel building its own
spy satellites - this even though it was already clear that the US could not
be relied upon to fill the gap. Civilian Menachem Begin overruled the brass.
The brass only truly understood why this critical equipment was needed when
the first satellite photograph flashed up on the screen.

Brass opposed acquiring second strike capability:

Ehud Barak took the lead in quashing plans to purchase German subs featuring
launch tubes with an extra large diameter for Jericho missiles. Israel only
received this strategic capability when Germany supplied the first subs for
FREE after German equipment played a key role in the Iraqi missile attacks
against the Jewish State.

Brass opposed opening the Second Lebanon War by destroying Hezbullah's long
range missiles:

The brass wanted to first punish Lebanon by destroying infrastructure but
civilian DM Amir Peretz insisted that the IAF take out the long range
missiles before they began hitting Tel Aviv. This move was essentially the
only correct Israeli decision in the entire war. To hear Peretz describe his
battle with the brass in his own words: http://youtu.be/SM_LMb10qsQ .

Civilian DM Liberman pushed through arming the IDF with an ample supply of
precision ground to ground missiles of various ranges to dramatically
enhance our ability to address many challenges without relying on piloted
platforms. This included top of the line systems that Israel was already
supplying to other armies but the local brass wasn't interested in.

And there are more examples.

In each case civilian "common sense" trumped decades of military training
and experience.

Would Bezalel Smotrich be a great civilian minister of defense?

He finessed his time in the hesder program to get a law degree when he was
ostensibly studying in yeshiva but this is not a reflection on his skills
today.

When Smotrich became minister of transportation no one expected him to come
close to filling the boots of "Mr. Herod" - Yisrael Katz.

But it turned out that Smotrich was actually better at the job. And he was
better in part because when he sat at a meeting he did not accept
conventional wisdom and asked a lot of great questions no one in the room
had thought about. Thanks to the implementation of his thinking out of box,
the pace of transportation infrastructure construction took off.

I don’t know if he would have the same success as minister of defense.

But I do know that with all the challenges we are facing that it pays to
have a civilian at the helm rather than just a fellow traveller of the Chief
of the General Staff.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il