IMRA Middle East News Updates

Technical Note: Unprecedented Terms & Conditions Could Block Return To War In Hamas Deal

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 09:15:17 -0400

Technical Note: Unprecedented Terms & Conditions Could Block Return To War In Hamas Deal
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 April 2025

A classic defect in Israeli thinking is the assumption that the future will be a copy of the past.

So we have that 99% or more of the Israelis calling for us to accept Hamas’ terms assume that it will be child’s play for us to go back to war against Hamas once the hostages are released, regardless of what international guarantees Hamas may receive.

Some point to the situation in Lebanon, where, despite a ceasefire, we manage to continue attacking Hezbollah.

But Lebanon isn’t Gaza and Hamas also sees what’s going on there.

A few possibilities:

A United Nations Security Council resolution under Chapter VII with a form of “snapback” provision so that various serious international sanctions and even force can be imposed against Israel if we are seen as violating the ceasefire. Once in place, only a unanimous vote of the UNSC can void the Resolution.

Arab observer forces deployed in the Gaza Strip could serve not only as “human shields” but also as “tripwires” as a deterrent to Israel.

It also wouldn’t require that America has a president from the Democratic Party for us to face tremendous pressure to avoid action against Gaza. To put it delicately, the next Republican president may also have very different priorities.

Let’s not make the mistake of basing policy on wishful thinking.

We have already paid a dear price for such a mistake.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: After Leak Only Nukes Viable Solution

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 08:41:06 -0400

Weekly Commentary: After Leak Only Nukes Viable Solution

Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 April 2025

The moment someone leaked to the New York Times that we were planning a commando raid against the Iranian facilities buried deep in mountains that option was off the table.

Until that NYT report, the Iranians may have assumed that the Americans had come up with a novel conventional way to destroy Fordow and Natanz using GBU-57/AB bunker buster bombs or something more advanced,

But now Iran is no doubt launching an intensive upgrade of its arrangements for foiling commando attacks. Such a program could even include collapsing the entrance tunnels with provisions to keep the stranded Iranian staff alive as crews clear out the rubble.

With a conventional solution off the table, we return to the estimates of the effectiveness of a precision double or triple tap of nuclear warheads.

Thanks to their remote isolated locations, nuclear attacks on Fordow and Natanz would not endanger a significant civilian population.

And this would be a very special case. A clear and present danger when no viable conventional alternative exists.

I am extremely pessimistic this option will be chosen.

And its not because Mr. Trump would rather have the Jewish State nuked in the future than take his place in history as the first leader to use a nuke since WWII.

It is because his team, and many others, are convinced that the Iranians really don’t believe in their religion.

They cannot accept that, under velayat-e-fqih (guardianship of the jurist) the religious leadership of Iran could actually direct the military to prepare the ground for the return of the Mahdi via an apocalypse.

After all the crazy things we have seen people do in the name of religion, I fear that the “nukes to prevent regime change” school are making one hell of a bet on our collective future.

Weekly Commentary: Drop US Aid Now!

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 04:10:12 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Drop US Aid Now!

Dr. Aaron Lerner 10 April 2025

=E2=80=9CDon=E2=80=99t forget we help Israel a lot. We give Israel $4 billio=
n a year. That=E2=80=99s a lot.=E2=80=9D =20
President Donald Trump - Q&A with PM Netanyahu 7 April, 2025

These days President Trump is turning the American public against a world wh=
ich, as he sees it, rips off America.

This message has already had a profound impact on the attitude of Americans o=
f all stripes - both Trump supporters and detractors.

We here in Israel can=E2=80=99t afford to ignore this dramatic shift.

It=E2=80=99s only going to get worse.

We have to recognize that all our excellent explanations that our synergisti=
c relationship in the development of military technology critical to America=
is worth far more than the American aid don=E2=80=99t move the needle in ou=
r favor on the American street.

I am not writing this in a vacuum.

Americans I interact with who, until days ago, were strong supporters of the=
Jewish state, share with me their distress that Israel is ripping off the U=
S in trade.

I=E2=80=99m not going into that the 25% duty Israeli manufacturers of steel=
and aluminum products face is magnitudes greater that the minor duty we had=
on some agricultural products.

The American street isn=E2=80=99t looking for explanations.

I would be the last to claim that we aren=E2=80=99t in difficult financial t=
imes.

Nonetheless, we can afford to forfeit the American aid.

President Trump would welcome it and the American street would most definite=
ly be aware that we made this dramatic move.

The money we pay for military equipment will help close our balance of trad=
e gap.

And more importantly, the move will remove the dangerous disincentive which w=
e have to rush as quickly as possible to reach strategic independence from A=
merican military supplies.

Mr. Trump may like us, but he has many other friends.

=E2=80=9CI said that to [Erdogan]. I said, =E2=80=98Congratulations, you=E2=80=
=99ve been able to do what nobody has been able to in 2,000 years. You=E2=80=
=99ve taken over Syria.=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D

=E2=80=9CAny problem that you have with Turkey, I think I can solve. I mean,=
as long as you=E2=80=99re reasonable, you have to be reasonable. We have to=
be reasonable.=E2=80=9D =20
President Donald Trump - Q&A with PM Netanyahu 7 April, 2025

Does Mr. Trump think it=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cunreasonable=E2=80=9D for Israel t=
o oppose Turkish airforce bases in Syria?

No. We can=E2=80=99t build F35=E2=80=99s.

But we urgently need to implement a program which anticipates that the next m=
an in the White House may cut off supplies at a critical moment.

It is not going to be easy.

But if we act now, these days may also ultimately mark our own =E2=80=9CInde=
pendence Day.=E2=80=9D

Weekly Commentary: Can You Answer This Democracy Quiz? Many Failed

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 17:29:46 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Can You Answer This Democracy Quiz? Many Failed
Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 March 2025

Here are just a few multiple choice questions:

1. In a democracy, what should happen to protestors who, in an act of civil
disobedience, block a road without a permit?
A. They get on TV and then go home.
B. They bear the consequence of violating the law.
Note: Israel Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara answered "A".

" In no sense do I advocate evading or defying the law, as would the rabid
segregationist. That would lead to anarchy. One who breaks an unjust law
must do so openly, lovingly, and with a willingness to accept the penalty. I
submit that an individual who breaks a law that conscience tells him is
unjust, and who willingly accepts the penalty of imprisonment in order to
arouse the conscience of the community over its injustice, is in reality
expressing the highest respect for law."
"Letter from a Birmingham Jail" Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. 16 April 1963

2. How do you rule on a case if you are Justice in the Supreme Court and
believe that it does not serve the national interest to rule on that case in
accordance with the law?
A. Make the ruling in accordance with the law and in the decision call for a
revision of the law.
B. Engage in verbal gymnastics to explain why a ruling which actually
doesn't jibe with the law is in accordance with an interpretation of the
law.
C. Claim legal precedent which doesn't actually exist to support your ruling
which doesn't actually jibe with the law.
Note: Supreme Court Justice Barak chose C

"I believe it is fair to conclude that the 'lineage' of the rulings by
Justice Barak in the Pinhasi case and by Justice Mazza in the Deri case does
not withstand scrutiny. In the binding legal material available to us at the
time, these rulings have no foundation for the conclusions reached by the
justices.
Even the secondary sources do not provide strong support for these
far-reaching conclusions."
Ruth Gavison, "The Attorney General: A Critical Look at New Trends," in
Plilim Vol. 6 (1996), p. 95.

3. What do you do if you have been assigned to negotiate with terrorists on
behalf of the Government of Israel and the Government of Israel formally
votes to approve a negotiating position which you oppose?
A. Advise the Government of Israel that you cannot act as negotiator.
B. Arrange to appear before the Knesset Subcommittee for Intelligence and
Secret Services so that this Knesset body, which has oversight
responsibility for the most sensitive matters of the Israeli state, is aware
of the concerns which you have.
C. Share your concerns and criticisms with the press and others while
continuing to serve in the negotiating position.
Note: Shin Bet head, Ronen Bar, apparently chose C.

4. What do you do when a Supreme Court Justice issues an injunction
preventing you from doing something?
A. Launch a PR campaign implying that you may not honor the injunction.
B. Have your lawyer prepare possibly the strongest submission in Israel's
legal history explaining why the injunction should be vacated while stating
explicitly in the submission that the ruling of the Supreme Court will be
honored.
Note: Prime Minister Netanyahu did both A and B. Despite the written
submission, there are Likud MKs still doing A. It is noteworthy that PM
Netanyahu's choice of a combination of A and B succeeded in diverting all
attention from the passage of a budget which provides for a massive amount
of money for Haredis who opt not to serve in the IDF.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Government Response To Petition To Stop Dismissal of Ronen Bar

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 19:25:08 -0400

Government Response To Petition To Stop Dismissal of Ronen Bar
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 March 2024

https://ynet-pic1.yit.co.il/picserver6/wcm_upload_files/2025/03/24/Hyr2wbyT1
l/_____________1___2_________________.pdf is a full copy in Hebrew of the
response of the Government of Israel to the petition to stop the dismissal
of Ronen Bar.

The response includes many strong arguments, including the following
(ChatGPT4 used to translate):

During deliberations of a joint subcommittee of the Knesset Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee and the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee on the
proposed ISA Law, held on November 26, 2001, the committee discussed this
very issue. On page 34 of the protocol, then-Deputy Attorney General (later
Justice) Meni Mazuz explained the reasoning behind how the term of the ISA
Director was set.

He stated:

"In the previous Knesset, there was debate about the length of service for
the Director. Some MKs raised concerns about the system where a four-year
term could be extended by one year at the discretion of the government. This
could create a situation where the Director becomes beholden to the
appointing authority-whether he behaves 'well' or not-depending on whether
his term is extended by a few months or not.

An alternative proposal was submitted to stipulate a five-year term, unless
the government set a shorter term at the time of appointment, and that the
Director's tenure would continue unless a replacement is appointed within
three months of the term ending-to allow for continuity and overlap. But the
main idea was to establish a fixed term."

At that point, MK Yuval Steinitz interjected:

"Anyway, the Prime Minister can always fire the Director."

Mazuz replied:

"Correct. That's the additional point. We wrote explicitly in the law: 'The
Director's tenure may end under the following circumstances.'"

Chairman David Magen added:

"That sounds appropriate-five years and three months."

Mazuz concluded:

"Instead of listing detailed grounds for termination, we included a general
clause: the government-not the Prime Minister-may terminate the Director's
tenure before the end of the term. Without needing to cite reasons A, B, or
C. The underlying assumption is that the ISA Director, like several other
key positions, cannot remain in office without the confidence of the
government."

Steinitz emphasized:

"Sometimes urgency demands action, and therefore the Prime Minister must
have the power to immediately suspend the Director, even before the
government acts formally."

Mazuz confirmed:

"The government appoints based on the Prime Minister's recommendation, so
dismissal can also be initiated that way. If necessary, the PM can even
convene an urgent session by phone vote."

.This discussion is recorded in the committee protocol dated 26/11/2001.

Justice Mazuz's remarks highlight the logic behind why the law does not list
specific grounds for dismissal. It is based on a clear, democratic
understanding: the ISA Director, due to the importance and sensitivity of
his role, cannot serve without the confidence of the appointing
authority-the government. Therefore, the government may dismiss the ISA
Director even via telephone vote, according to Section 19A of the
Government's Rules of Procedure.
===

The response concludes with a request that the Honorable Court deny the
petition,
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Mr. Trump: Iran must dismantle its uranium enrichment program - not just verify it!

Sat, 22 Mar 2025 16:41:38 -0400

Mr. Trump: Iran must dismantle its uranium enrichment program - not just
verify it!
Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 March 2025

"[President Trump] sent a letter to the Iranians. We should create a
verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your
nuclear material."
Steve Witkoff's Interview on The Tucker Carlson Show March 21, 2025

I sincerely hope that Mr. Witkoff's description of President Trump's letter
to Iran is inaccurate.

With Iran having reached "zero breakout time" I would expect that the letter
demands that Iran, under supervision, completely dismantle its uranium
enrichment program followed by an ongoing verification program to ensure
that Iran never launches such a program again.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il