IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Different Skill Sets To Plan Operations And Set Policy

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 10:47:25 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Different Skill Sets To Plan Operations And Set Policy
Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 July 2024

I have a lot of respect for the ability of the leadership of the IDF and
others in the security establishment to plan and execute missions.

But the skill set associated with planning and executing a specific
operation is not the same skill set required for setting policy.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that a different skill set is required
to either conclude that an operation is required or to approve, in turn, the
operation planned by the security establishment.

To be clear: I am not making light of the skills required to plan and
execute operations.

It is just that time and again the Israeli security establishment makes the
mistake of thinking that since they know how to plan and execute an
operation, this somehow means that they are experts in setting policy.

It is actually worse than that today.

The Israeli security establishment is confident that they and only they have
the skill set to set policy.

In their eyes, the civilian leadership is at best a rubber stamp and at
worst a nuisance to deal with.

This is why the leadership of the security establishment saw fit to tell the
media, as Prime Minister Netanyahu reached Washington, that there's no
problem for Israel to retreat completely from the Gaza Strip for 6 weeks.

It was reported to be a unanimous conclusion, something that in and of
itself raises serious questions about the quality of the process which led
to this announcement.

It isn't clear to me how, in the short run, this attitude can be changed
inside the security establishment.

Our challenge is to do what we can to encourage and enable the civilian
leadership to apply the skill set needed to set policy so that the
operations which the security establishment plans and executes best serve
our nation's interests.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Israeli Defense Establishment Defies Government, Publicly Claiming Full Retreat from Gaza is OK

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 16:39:20 -0400

Israeli Defense Establishment Defies Government, Publicly Claiming Full Retreat from Gaza is OK
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 22 July 2024

With Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu about to meet with various American officials and address Congress, Channel 11 reported tonight that the Israeli defense establishment told reporters that "the IDF can retreat completely from the Gaza Strip for 6 weeks - should a new agreement be signed to release the hostages."
https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/defense/775909/

They asserted that such a small period of time would not enable Hamas to recuperate in a critical manner via new weapons or the construction or renovation of smuggling tunnels.

Please note:

We are absolutely CLUELESS:

#1 How many intact tunnels cross from Egypt to the Gaza Strip today.

#2. How many new tunnels are currently under construction nor how close they are to completion.

So these retreat supporters have absolutely no basis to know the volume of military equipment which Hamas can bring into the Gaza Strip over the course of six weeks.

The members of the Israeli defense establishment are PLAYING FAST AND LOOSE WITH THE LIVES OF IDF SOLDIERS AND ISRAELI CIVILIANS.

Three possibilities:

#1. They aren't the sharpest tools in the shed.

#2. They discount future losses at such a high discount rate that the death of soldiers and civilians six weeks from now is "worth" only a small fraction of the "value" of an unknown number of live hostages.

#3. They are "secular messianics" who believe that a ceasefire will lead to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state which will, in turn, herald a utopian peace.

And a technical note: Anyone who thinks that after we make a full retreat from the Gaza Strip for 6 weeks that we can then simply invade Gaza again with elections in America just around the corner demonstrates such a profound cluelessness of the ways of the world that they have no business making policy recommendations.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Senator JD Vance will not attend Netanyahu's speech in Washington

Sun, 21 Jul 2024 17:03:02 -0400

Senator JD Vance will not attend Netanyahu's speech in Washington
English translation of report on Kan
https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/775594/

Trump's deputy will not attend Netanyahu's speech in Washington
Senator JD Vance will not attend the Prime Minister's speech due to
commitments. A senior adviser in the Trump campaign: "He stands firm with
the people of Israel"
KAN11 Reporter Amichai Stein 22 July 2024

The deputy of the candidate for the presidency of the United States, Senator
J.D. Vance, will not attend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech in
Washington due to commitments. This was published this evening (Sunday) in
the evening news at Kan 11.

Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, told the news here
this evening: "Vance stands firmly with the people of Israel in the struggle
to protect the homeland, eradicate terrorist threats and return the
abductees. However, he will not be present at Prime Minister Netanyahu's
speech to Congress because there He has duties to fulfill as the Republican
candidate for vice president."

Sources in the Republican Party add: "This is not a signal, nor a message.
JD is a true friend of Israel." Despite the contacts, it is still unclear
whether a meeting will be held between Netanyahu and Trump. If such a
meeting does take place, it will most likely not be in Washington. At the
moment there are attempts and contacts, but there are also scheduling
problems.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Netanyahu to finally fly on plane with proper Command and Control (CAC)

Thu, 18 Jul 2024 07:52:03 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Netanyahu to finally fly on plane with proper CAC
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 July 2024

I have bad news and good news:

The bad news is that our situation today is so profoundly dangerous that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu must be in a position to make critical decisions 24/7.

The good news is that Netanyahu will fly to Washington on “Wing of Zion” - a plane outfitted with the equipment required to provide the secure bandwidth and other equipment needed so that Netanyahu has an almost seamless interface with the information he would rely on if he were sitting in the “Pit” - the underground Command and Control Center in the Kirya in Tel Aviv.

“Wing of Zion” flew to America this week to preposition equipment for the visit too heavy to take with the passengers next week.

I would assume that a team also carried out a series of tests of the systems during the flights.

To be clear: Every flight which Israel’s prime ministers took until today without using the plane was a flight during which secure communications were extremely limited. And there were incidents in which this communications problem seriously handicapped operations.

No one challenged the existence of the problem- but no leader had the intestinal fortitude to put the country’s needs over suffering the bad press associated with flying the plane due to the various special features of the plane for the use of the prime minister (shower, nice bed, etc.).

So the good news is that there’s an adult in the room.

The bad news is what it took to make Netanyahu act like an adult on this matter.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Danger: Novice Politician COS “Yihyeh B’Seder“ Halevi Publicly Asserts IDF Doesn’t Need To Hold Philadelphi Corridor

Sun, 14 Jul 2024 19:55:58 -0400

Danger: Novice Politician COS “Yihyeh B’Seder“ Halevi Publicly Asserts IDF Doesn’t Need To Hold Philadelphi Corridor

Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 July 2024

After Netanyahu said that he "insisted that Israel remain on the Philadelphi Corridor", Chief of Staff Halevi said today in a special statement that "we will know how to control it in all kinds of operational ways".

My stomach turns.

It’s bad enough that the COS opposes the declared policy of the PM in public.

But it is much worse than that.

October 7th is the result of decades of “Yihyeh B’Seder” (“it will be okay”) assertions by the security establishment- including Halevi.

There was some hope that these guys, after so many years of dangerously self serving optimistic assessments (we can leave the Golan in exchange for gizmos, Hizbollah is deterred rather than patiently building their power, Hamas is deterred, we can withdraw from Gaza, we can withdraw from anywhere in Judea and Samaria for a deal, we can relinquish control of the Old City of Jerusalem to a special authority) that October 7th would make them modest.

It hasn’t.

Instead this same COS Halevi has berated and ridiculed civilian ministers who have had the chutzpah to ask questions in cabinet meetings.

Even if the IDF today possessed a magical remote sensor to detect smuggling tunnels (it doesn’t) how does COS “Yihyeh B’Seder“ Halevi think we are going to be able to go in and destroy a detected tunnel if we aren’t already there?

And if Halevi genuinely thinks that we can be certain that we could go back in then this hopelessly naive man has no business being responsible for the lives of our troops and the defense of our nation.

Weekly Commentary: Gaza Policy Debate Not Driven By Petty Politics

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 22:04:26 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Gaza Policy Debate Not Driven By Petty Politics
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 July 2024

I have extremely strong criticism of the policy recommendations by those who advocate a "deal at any cost" with Hamas but I'm not going to claim that they are driven by political considerations rather than what they genuinely believe best serves the Jewish State.

The very same can be said regarding those who oppose the deal.

Yes. It pains me greatly to observe that there are important matters where political considerations take priority over the needs of the country.
But this isn't one of them.

This policy debate is too important to ignore views by labeling them "politically driven".

We cannot afford a policy debate limited to slogans.

And that's pretty much all the popular media has been serving up since October 7th.

The "deal at any cost" advocates haven't essentially gone beyond proclaiming "yihyeh bseder" (it will okay) after a "deal at any cost" is implemented.

Many opponents of having a third party take responsibility for Gaza also oppose having an Israeli administration, such as COGAT, take overarching responsibility for the civil administration of the Gaza Strip.

Good policymaking requires more than a shouting match.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il