IMRA Middle East News Updates

The deadline for Hamas to accept disarming past & world silent

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 14:54:38 -0400

The deadline for Hamas to accept disarming past & world silent
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 April 2026

Below is apparently the most recent remark by an American official on this
matter:

There is only one party standing in the way of a better life for civilians
in Gaza - and it's Hamas. And Hamas is on the clock.
UN Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz - X 6 April 2026
https://x.com/USAmbUN/status/2041235411482116473?
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Making Israel appear to "listen to its master's voice" against U.S. interests

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 10:22:59 -0400

Making Israel appear to "listen to its master's voice" against U.S.
interests
Dr. Aaron Lerner 10 April 2026

If Israel visibly limits its operations in Lebanon to satisfy Iran's demands
ahead of the Islamabad talks, it risks portraying Israel as a country that
"listens to its master's voice" in Washington.

This perception harms American interests for several reasons:

It exposes the U.S. to endless blame. Once Washington demonstrates it can
"tie Israel's hands," America will be held responsible for every future
Israeli action - or inaction - in Lebanon and beyond.

Most dangerously, honoring a requirement which the U.S. insists was never
part of the ceasefire deal shows Iran that the United States can be played
for a fool in negotiations. It signals weakness and encourages Tehran to use
similar linkage tactics in the future.

It also damages Israel's deterrence and independence. A weaker, more
hesitant Israel becomes a less valuable partner for the United States in the
region.

In reality, it serves U.S. interests for the talks to take place on Saturday
in Islamabad while Israel continues to bomb Hezbollah locations that Iran
claims it "cannot accept."

This maintains real pressure on Iran without the U.S. appearing to sacrifice
an ally's security for diplomatic convenience.

Turning Israel into a perceived extension of U.S. policy may offer
short-term negotiating ease, but it ultimately erodes Israel's credibility
as a strong, independent ally - and burdens America with greater
responsibility and resentment.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - Hamas Disarmament Ball In Play NOW

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:35:09 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - Hamas Disarmament Ball In Play NOW
Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 April 2026

The "Hamas disarmament ball" is in play with agents of the Board of Peace
pressing Hamas to accept, in the coming days, the disarmament framework in
President Trump's Comprehensive Peace Plan for Gaza.

The stakes could not be higher.

Because considering the countries involved in this process - including
Turkey - we could easily find ourselves in a few months facing the dilemma
that Hamas carried out some high-profile disarmament ceremonies which
President Trump posted on Truth Social while proclaiming "mission
accomplished".

Yes. 90 days into the implementation of the plan, Hamas is supposed to
surrender all its heavy weapons (not to mention carry out action against its
tunnel network and military infrastructure) but it is up to Israel to ensure
that this isn't a dangerous farce.

It is not enough to conduct quiet diplomacy with the White House or the
Board of Peace.

We continually learn that understandings which are not public can be both a
source of confusion and readily ignored.

Israel should prepare and publicly release its own detailed standards,
milestones, and timelines for what constitutes verified compliance.

The Trump plan explicitly states that verification of the disarmament will
be based on such agreed parameters.

Making these criteria transparent AND PUBLIC before the intensive phase
(roughly days 30 - 90 after implementation begins) would prevent any attempt
at a ceremonial, photo-op handover that satisfies headlines but not security
realities.

Such action could make a major and critical contribution towards protecting
Israeli interests and ensuring that "demilitarization" means what it says -
not another farce.

Israel's security cannot be subordinated to diplomatic convenience or the
hope that external pressure alone will deliver results. The time for quiet
talks has passed. The time for a clear, public Israeli stand has arrived.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

For free regular subscription:
Subscribe at no charge: imra-subscribe@imra.org.il
Unsubscribe: imra-unsubscribe@imra.org.il

For free daily digest subscription:
Subscribe at no charge: imra-subscribe-digest@imra.org.il
Unsubscribe: imra-unsubscribe@imra.org.il

IMRA is now also on Twitter
http://twitter.com/IMRA_UPDATES

Pres. Trump Threatens Hell For Iran On Day Egypt's Army Drowned After Exodus

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 01:29:15 -0400

Pres. Trump Threatens Hell For Iran On Day Egypt's Army Drowned After Exodus
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 April 2026

Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in
Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy
bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.
President DONALD J. TRUMP - Truth Social 5 April 2026
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116351998782539414

Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116353078945787501

Tuesday evening 7 April 2026 is 21 Nissan on the Jewish calendar.

According to the Bible, on 21 Nissan, Egypt's army was drowned as the sea,
which had parted to facilitate passage for the Children of Israel, engulfed
them.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

A Practical Fix for the Fertilizer Shock: Let Big Oil's Windfall Pay to Put Food Crops Back on the Table

Sat, 04 Apr 2026 14:45:31 -0400

A Practical Fix for the Fertilizer Shock: Let Big Oil's Windfall Pay to Put
Food Crops Back on the Table
Dr. Aaron Lerner 4 April, 2026

The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a fertilizer
supply shock that will hurt global food security far more than most people
realize. Fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, and Gulf
shipments account for roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade.

Even if the strait reopens in the next two weeks, the damage to 2026 crop
yields is largely locked in. Farmers have already made their planting
decisions under higher fertilizer prices. Analysts now forecast global food
prices rising 12% to 18% by late 2026 and remaining elevated into 2027.

There is a straightforward way to blunt this blow - and it does not require
new land, new technology, or taxpayer money.

The Proposal

Temporarily redirect a portion of edible crops now used for biofuels (corn,
soybeans, sugarcane, rapeseed) back into human and animal food supply.

These crops are already perfectly edible and part of the food chain; only
government mandates currently divert them to fuel.

Important clarification on corn: The corn diverted from ethanol is field
corn (dent corn), not sweet corn eaten on the cob. It is already widely used
in human food as cornmeal, corn flour, starch, high-fructose corn syrup,
corn oil, chips, and tortillas, as well as livestock feed. Redirecting it
simply sends the same kernels to food processors and feed mills instead of
ethanol plants - no major new infrastructure is required.

Compensate the biofuels industry and affected farmers entirely through a
targeted windfall-profits tax on the excess earnings of oil companies
created by the same Hormuz-driven oil-price spike.

How Much Difference Would This Make?

United States alone: A credible 30% temporary reduction in biofuel mandates
could free up the caloric equivalent of 6% to 10% of global cereal and
vegetable-oil supply from the 2026 harvest.

If major biofuel nations act together (U.S., Brazil, EU, India and others),
coordinated action could shift 12% to 18% of the world's edible-crop
calories away from fuel tanks and back into food and feed markets.

Net impact on the shortage: This would reduce the projected food-price
inflation by roughly 40% to 60% - the equivalent of adding the annual food
needs of 200-350 million people without clearing a single new acre of land.

Why This Is Politically and Practically Feasible Now

The windfall-profits tax on Big Oil (50% of profits above a pre-crisis
baseline) could generate tens of billions of dollars in the first year
alone.

That revenue would be sufficient to offset lost income for ethanol plants,
corn/soy growers, and rural communities. It would also fund transition
grants to retool plants for food-grade use and cover storage and logistics
costs.

Framing is simple and powerful: "The same crisis that created oil-company
windfalls now funds the solution to the food crisis."

Timing and Next Steps

Even though planting for the 2026 harvest is already underway or locked in,
the harvested crops themselves can still be reassigned.

Once the grain is harvested, and while not all capacity can shift
immediately, the federal government can use existing emergency powers -
including the Defense Production Act and EPA biofuel-waiver authority - to
redirect it from ethanol plants to food and feed markets.

A clear policy signal issued now, paired with guaranteed compensation, gives
ethanol plants, grain elevators, and farmers the certainty they need to
prepare for post-harvest redirection.

Critics will call this "government interference." In normal times they would
be correct. But a fertilizer shock caused by foreign conflict is exactly the
kind of emergency these authorities were created for.

Using oil windfall profits to fund the transition is fiscally responsible
and politically balanced.

The alternative is to accept higher food prices, shrinking livestock herds,
and renewed hunger risks in developing countries - all while oil companies
bank record profits and biofuel plants continue burning food that humans and
animals could eat.

We have the crops. We have the legal tools. We even have the revenue source.

The only missing piece is the political will to act before the 2026 harvest
begins.

The window is open now - but it will not stay open for long.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: End America's Free Pass For Turkey

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:08:29 -0400

Weekly Commentary: End America's Free Pass For Turkey
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 April 2026

Secretary of State Rubio is justly criticizing European NATO allies for denying bases for operations against Iran.

Turkey has explicitly refused to allow the US to use Incirlik Air Base (or Turkish airspace) for any offensive operations or logistics against Iran. The base is one of the best-located NATO facilities for strikes on Iran (800 - 1,200 km from key targets, enabling shorter flights, higher sortie rates, and less refueling).

But Mr. Rubio, as President Trump, is silent about Turkey.

In late March 2026, Trump publicly called Turkey “fantastic” and Erdogan a “great leader” specifically for “staying out of things we asked them to” during the Iran war.

Sounds like Mr. Trump hasn't just lowered the bar. He's dug a hole for the bar he uses to measure the performance of Erdogan.

Is Erdogan a "great leader" for not deploying his air force to defend Iran?

Is Turkey "fantastic" because it isn't firing missiles at Tel Aviv?

This has been an ongoing free pass.

Turkey hosts Hamas’s main overseas political and operational leadership in Istanbul.

And today Turkey is doing everything in its power to ensure that Hamas is not actually disarmed.

Erdogan is anything but a moderate.

On 30 March 2025, during the official Eid al-Fitr prayer service at Camlıca Mosque in Istanbul (broadcast publicly), President Erdogan prayed: “May Allah, for the sake of his name ‘Al-Qahhar,’ destroy and devastate Zionist Israel.”

It is time for America to raise the bar for Turkey.

End the free pass.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus =
on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il