IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il Middle East News & Analysis en-US 1738937832 1738937832 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Capalon Internet 2.0 imra@netvision.net.il (Aaron Lerner) News & Analysis IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il https://www.imra.org.il/imra_sm.png 144 97 Weekly Commentary: Gazans Consider Israel, Not Gaza, Their Homeland https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74312 <p>Weekly Commentary: Reality Check - Gazans Consider Israel, Not Gaza, Their<br /> Homeland<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 February 2025</p> <p>Here is a typical rant posted recently against relocating the Gazans from<br /> their disaster site to continue their lives in safety and prosperity. </p> <p>"Their attachment is to the land, which they cannot relinquish, substitute,<br /> or be compensated for. This is where they belong, where their ancestors<br /> lived and died, where their cultural heritage resides, and where they still<br /> dream of having a better and brighter future and living with dignity."</p> <p>Nice rant.</p> <p>But clueless.</p> <p>And also an insult to the Gazans.</p> <p>Because when you claim that the Gazans are somehow devoted to living in Gaza<br /> you deny the devotion and commitment of the people of Gaza to "returning"<br /> inside Israel.</p> <p>They don't struggle to liberate Gaza; they want to "liberate" Tel Aviv.</p> <p>And they make no bones about this.</p> <p>The first step toward solving a problem is recognizing what it is.</p> <p>And this time, it is easy - because the Gazans are telling us.</p> <p>They've been brainwashed for generations to believe that their goal is to<br /> move into Israel after ridding it of the Jews.</p> <p>And under the best of circumstances its going to take generations to cleanse<br /> the Ganza of this poison.</p> <p>The world can spend billions of dollars building housing in Gaza, but as far<br /> as the Gazans are concerned, it's temporary housing.</p> <p>And if billions of dollars of temporary housing are demolished in the course<br /> of their next attempt to destroy Israel so be it.</p> <p>Relocating the Gazans doesn't deny their attachment to Israeli land. </p> <p>But beyond providing them with a better life, relocation may also help<br /> initiate the long and arduous process of their de-radicalization.</p> <p>________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 07 Feb 2025 09:17:12 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74312 Lebanese UNDOF, French, and USA Have Blood on Their Hands for Failing to Stop Villagers from Attempting to Invade Israeli Positions https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74310 <p>Lebanese UNDOF, French, and USA Have Blood on Their Hands for Failing to<br /> Stop Villagers from Attempting to Invade Israeli Positions<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner - 2 February 2025</p> <p>As Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu prepared to fly today to Washington,<br /> Hezbollah announced that Lebanese villagers would invade Israeli positions<br /> in villages on the Lebanese border.</p> <p>UNDOF didn't press the Lebanese Army to stop the invasion.</p> <p>Ditto for the American-led "monitoring mechanism," which also includes<br /> France.</p> <p>And so, the Lebanese Army didn't stop the invasion.</p> <p>Hats off to PM Netanyahu for endorsing the plan to open fire to drive back<br /> the Lebanese invaders.</p> <p>And I write "hats off" in all sincerity.</p> <p>Hezbollah no doubt thought that we would turn tail.</p> <p>And if we turned tail today, our future security would have been in the<br /> toilet.</p> <p>So the blood of 22 Lebanese invaders is shared by the Lebanese Army - which<br /> didn't stop the invasion despite the advanced warnings - as well as all the<br /> other players who should have pushed the Lebanese to do their job and, after<br /> the fact, apparently declined to issue strong condemnations of the Lebanese<br /> Army for leaving the IDF to stop the invasion.</p> <p>What happened today in Lebanon is an important lesson to President Trump and<br /> his team.</p> <p>And the lesson is clear: the deployment of the IDF in Southern Lebanon must<br /> be extended indefinitely.</p> <p>The ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel was dictated by people who<br /> didn't give a damn about the efficacy of the deal -just the photo op of the<br /> deal.</p> <p>President Trump doesn't need a photo op in Lebanon.</p> <p>So when he meets this week with Mr. Netanyahu, especially after this bloody<br /> illustration of the farce that the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire is, they can<br /> discuss how America can support the only viable arrangement for the<br /> foreseeable future: the continued Israeli deployment in Southern Lebanon.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sun, 02 Feb 2025 15:23:44 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74310 Weekly Commentary: Saudi Role in Al-Aqsa Security as Reward for Diplomatic Recognition https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74309 <p>Weekly Commentary: Saudi Role in Al-Aqsa Security as Reward for Diplomatic<br /> Recognition</p> <p>Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 January 2025</p> <p>Context: The Israel-Jordan Treaty and Al-Aqsa's Status</p> <p>The 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty plays a defining role in shaping the<br /> administration and security of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem, particularly<br /> the Al-Aqsa Mosque. A key clause states:</p> <p>"Israel respects the present special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan<br /> in Muslim Holy shrines in Jerusalem. When negotiations on the permanent<br /> status will take place, Israel will give high priority to the Jordanian<br /> historic role in these shrines."</p> <p>This provision ensures that Jordan remains the official custodian of<br /> Al-Aqsa, through the Jordanian-controlled Waqf (Islamic trust). However, the<br /> treaty does not explicitly prevent Saudi Arabia from playing a role,<br /> provided it does not challenge Jordan's custodianship.</p> <p>A Measured Saudi Role: Enhancing Security Without Changing Custodianship</p> <p>Saudi Arabia's growing influence in the region, its aspirations for a<br /> formalized relationship with Israel, and its status as the guardian of Mecca<br /> and Medina make its potential involvement in Al-Aqsa security a natural<br /> extension of its regional leadership.</p> <p>Rather than seeking custodianship, a more practical and mutually beneficial<br /> role would be for Saudi Arabia to fund and implement Mecca-style security<br /> infrastructure at Al-Aqsa while ensuring Jordan retains full religious and<br /> administrative authority.</p> <p>Under this proposal, Saudi Arabia's role would be strictly limited to:</p> <p>Funding & Implementing Electronic Security Measures:</p> <p>Installation of metal detectors, baggage scanners, and explosives detection<br /> at all mosque entry points, similar to those in Mecca.</p> <p>Enhancing crowd control through smart surveillance systems to prevent<br /> weapons smuggling and unauthorized access.</p> <p>24/7 AI-Powered Security Cameras:</p> <p>High-resolution surveillance cameras throughout Al-Aqsa compound to prevent<br /> riots and unauthorized activities.</p> <p>Real-time monitoring by security teams, with access provided to Jordanian<br /> Waqf, Israeli security agencies, and Saudi-backed security analysts.</p> <p>Funding Al-Aqsa Maintenance and Infrastructure:</p> <p>Ongoing structural upkeep, cleaning, and renovation projects.</p> <p>No funding for Waqf salaries or political initiatives, ensuring Jordan<br /> retains religious oversight.</p> <p>Why Jordan Would Accept This Deal</p> <p>Jordan has historically resisted any attempts to dilute its custodianship of<br /> Al-Aqsa. However, this arrangement would not undermine its<br /> authority-instead, it would provide significant financial and security<br /> benefits without forcing Amman into a politically risky concession.</p> <p>Jordan would benefit from:</p> <p>Reduced Israeli security presence inside the mosque compound, which has long<br /> been a point of tension between Israel and Jordan.</p> <p>Enhanced security that prevents radicals from using Al-Aqsa as a flashpoint<br /> for regional unrest.</p> <p>Direct financial relief from Saudi-funded maintenance, easing Jordan's<br /> economic burden.</p> <p>No political loss, as Jordan remains the sole religious authority under the<br /> Israel-Jordan treaty framework.</p> <p>How This Benefits Israel</p> <p>For Israel, this proposal presents a major strategic advantage:</p> <p>Improved Security Without Concessions:</p> <p>The introduction of advanced screening and surveillance reduces the risk of<br /> attacks emanating from Al-Aqsa.</p> <p>Weapons smuggling and violent riots would decrease significantly with<br /> Saudi-funded security upgrades.</p> <p>Reduces Israeli-Jordanian Tensions:</p> <p>Israel has long faced criticism for deploying police inside the mosque<br /> compound.</p> <p>By allowing Saudi-funded, Jordanian-operated security upgrades, Israel can<br /> maintain full control over overall security while decreasing the need for<br /> direct police interventions.</p> <p>Strengthens Regional Alliances:</p> <p>By giving Saudi Arabia a non-political but highly visible role, Israel can<br /> use this as leverage in future regional negotiations.</p> <p>Why This is a Major Win for Saudi Arabia</p> <p>Saudi Arabia would significantly enhance its regional status through this<br /> initiative without needing to formally challenge Jordan or Israel. The<br /> benefits include:</p> <p>Becoming the "Guardian of Al-Aqsa's Security"</p> <p>Saudi Arabia would solidify its role as the key security provider for all<br /> three of Islam's holiest sites (Mecca, Medina, and now Al-Aqsa).</p> <p>This neutralizes rival claims by Turkey and Iran, both of whom have used<br /> Al-Aqsa for political posturing.</p> <p>Strengthening Saudi-Jordan Relations</p> <p>By funding Al-Aqsa's security and maintenance, Saudi Arabia deepens its<br /> economic and strategic ties with Jordan, giving it greater influence over<br /> Amman's policies.</p> <p>Advancing Saudi-Israel Normalization as an Alternative to Palestinian<br /> Statehood Commitments</p> <p>Instead of requiring Israel to make commitments toward a Palestinian state,<br /> this initiative could be framed as a stability-oriented "reward" for Saudi<br /> diplomatic recognition of Israel.</p> <p>This allows Israel to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia without making<br /> political concessions to the Palestinians.</p> <p>Saudi Arabia still achieves a high-profile Islamic leadership role,<br /> fulfilling its symbolic commitment to Jerusalem without requiring direct<br /> Palestinian engagement.</p> <p>Conclusion: A Realistic and Balanced Solution</p> <p>This Saudi-Jordan-Israel arrangement offers a rare win-win-win scenario:</p> <p>(1`) Jordan maintains full custodianship, with enhanced resources for<br /> Al-Aqsa's security and maintenance.<br /> (2) Israel gains significant security improvements without making political<br /> concessions to the Palestinians.<br /> (3) Saudi Arabia cements its influence as a protector of Al-Aqsa,<br /> strengthening its regional standing.<br /> (4) Normalization with Saudi Arabia advances without requiring Israeli<br /> commitments on Palestinian statehood.</p> <p>At a time when Al-Aqsa remains a volatile flashpoint, such a measured and<br /> cooperative security initiative could play a pivotal role in ensuring<br /> regional stability while preventing radicals from exploiting the site. This<br /> initiative could serve as a stepping stone toward broader diplomatic<br /> cooperation in the Middle East, benefiting all parties involved.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Wed, 29 Jan 2025 12:07:38 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74309 Pres. Trump correct: Don't spend billions on buildings Israel will need to destroy - relocate the Gazans https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74308 <p>Pres. Trump correct: Don't spend billions on buildings Israel will need to <br /> destroy - relocate the Gazans <br /> Dr. Aaron lerner 27 January 2025 <br /> <br /> Hamas proudly proclaims that they are going to rebuild. That's rebuild <br /> their military, to continue their struggle to destroy Israel. <br /> <br /> President Trump is correct that the solution for the Gazans is to relocate <br /> them rather waste literally tens of billions of dollars erecting buildings <br /> in the Gaza Strip which Israel will have to destroy in a future war. <br /> <br /> President Trump is also correct in noting that, in the absence of the Gazan <br /> terrorists and their supporters, which is basically the current <br /> population of Gaza, the location has fantastic potential for large <br /> beachfront resorts. <br /> <br /> So it may be possible that part of the costs of building permanent housing <br /> for Gazans in other countries might be covered by leasing the Gaza Strip, <br /> after it is emptied of the terror supporting population, to resort <br /> developers, in long term leases. <br /> <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Mon, 27 Jan 2025 16:27:54 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74308 Update: PM Netanyahu not withdrawing from Lebanon now https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74307 <p>Update: PM Netanyahu not withdrawing from Lebanon now <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 January 2025 <br /> <br /> ### <br /> Prime Minister's Office Statement <br /> <br /> The Prime Minister's Office, this afternoon (Friday, 24 January 2025) [translated from Hebrew]: <br /> <br /> The ceasefire framework in Lebanon determined that the gradual withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon should be implemented within 60 days. This article is based on the understanding that the withdrawal process could possibly continue beyond the 60 days. <br /> <br /> The withdrawal process of the IDF is conditioned on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement while Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani. <br /> <br /> Since the ceasefire agreement has yet to be fully enforced by the Lebanese state, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the US. <br /> <br /> The State of Israel will not endanger its communities and its citizens and will insist on the complete implementation of the war objective in Lebanon – the return of the Israeli residents safely to their homes on the north. <br /> ### <br /> <br /> Dear Reader, <br /> <br /> We will never know what role, if any, public warnings against carrying out the withdrawal had on the decision-making process which resulted in the withdrawal not taking place for the time being. <br /> <br /> But since we don't have a time machine for a second chance, we cannot afford to be silent in the hopes that things work out. <br /> ========== <br /> <br /> PM Netanyahu must resign if he reaffirms his "doormat" status by withdrawing from Lebanon <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 January 2025 <br /> <br /> We face many critical issues for our future, and if President Trump thinks that our leader is a “doormat,” we are doomed. <br /> <br /> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a one-time opportunity to change his “doormat” status in President Trump’s eyes. <br /> We all understand that we must keep IDF forces in Lebanon. This is not a political issue in Israel at all. <br /> <br /> According to media reports, instead of informing the Trump administration that we are staying in Lebanon, we asked for permission from the Trump administration to remain there, and they objected. It was a mistake to ask for permission instead of declaring our intent, but that is behind us now. <br /> <br /> When we caved into Trump’s envoy and accepted the terms of the agreement with Hamas, Trump labeled Netanyahu as a “doormat.” <br /> <br /> It is critical to change the designation of “doormat” for our prime minister by Mr. Trump, because a country whose leader is considered a “doormat” will not win Trump’s support on Gaza, Iran, or any other critical issue. <br /> <br /> Therefore, with great regret, if we withdraw from Lebanon in the coming days, for the sake of us all, Netanyahu must resign in a process that immediately installs a replacement who will act decisively (e.g., annexation?) to signal to Trump that he is not a “doormat.” <br /> <br /> To be clear: I am not looking for an excuse to remove Netanyahu. With all my heart, I want him to do the right thing, so he can continue to lead. <br /> <br /> But if Mr. Netanyahu has resigned himself to being President Trump's “doormat,” he must resign. <br /> <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 24 Jan 2025 09:43:52 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74307 PM Netanyahu must resign if he reaffirms his "doormat" status by withdrawing from Lebanon https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74306 <p>PM Netanyahu must resign if he reaffirms his "doormat" status by withdrawing from Lebanon <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 January 2025 <br /> <br /> We face many critical issues for our future, and if President Trump thinks that our leader is a “doormat,” we are doomed. <br /> <br /> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a one-time opportunity to change his “doormat” status in President Trump’s eyes. <br /> We all understand that we must keep IDF forces in Lebanon. This is not a political issue in Israel at all. <br /> <br /> According to media reports, instead of informing the Trump administration that we are staying in Lebanon, we asked for permission from the Trump administration to remain there, and they objected. It was a mistake to ask for permission instead of declaring our intent, but that is behind us now. <br /> <br /> When we caved into Trump’s envoy and accepted the terms of the agreement with Hamas, Trump labeled Netanyahu as a “doormat.” <br /> <br /> It is critical to change the designation of “doormat” for our prime minister by Mr. Trump, because a country whose leader is considered a “doormat” will not win Trump’s support on Gaza, Iran, or any other critical issue. <br /> <br /> Therefore, with great regret, if we withdraw from Lebanon in the coming days, for the sake of us all, Netanyahu must resign in a process that immediately installs a replacement who will act decisively (e.g., annexation?) to signal to Trump that he is not a “doormat.” <br /> <br /> To be clear: I am not looking for an excuse to remove Netanyahu. With all my heart, I want him to do the right thing, so he can continue to lead. <br /> <br /> But if Mr. Netanyahu has resigned himself to being President Trump's “doormat,” he must resign. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Thu, 23 Jan 2025 05:55:39 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74306