IMRA Middle East News Updates

Update: PM Netanyahu not withdrawing from Lebanon now

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 09:43:52 -0500

Update: PM Netanyahu not withdrawing from Lebanon now
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 January 2025

###
Prime Minister's Office Statement

The Prime Minister's Office, this afternoon (Friday, 24 January 2025) [translated from Hebrew]:

The ceasefire framework in Lebanon determined that the gradual withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon should be implemented within 60 days. This article is based on the understanding that the withdrawal process could possibly continue beyond the 60 days.

The withdrawal process of the IDF is conditioned on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement while Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani.

Since the ceasefire agreement has yet to be fully enforced by the Lebanese state, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the US.

The State of Israel will not endanger its communities and its citizens and will insist on the complete implementation of the war objective in Lebanon – the return of the Israeli residents safely to their homes on the north.
###

Dear Reader,

We will never know what role, if any, public warnings against carrying out the withdrawal had on the decision-making process which resulted in the withdrawal not taking place for the time being.

But since we don't have a time machine for a second chance, we cannot afford to be silent in the hopes that things work out.
==========

PM Netanyahu must resign if he reaffirms his "doormat" status by withdrawing from Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 January 2025

We face many critical issues for our future, and if President Trump thinks that our leader is a “doormat,” we are doomed.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a one-time opportunity to change his “doormat” status in President Trump’s eyes.
We all understand that we must keep IDF forces in Lebanon. This is not a political issue in Israel at all.

According to media reports, instead of informing the Trump administration that we are staying in Lebanon, we asked for permission from the Trump administration to remain there, and they objected. It was a mistake to ask for permission instead of declaring our intent, but that is behind us now.

When we caved into Trump’s envoy and accepted the terms of the agreement with Hamas, Trump labeled Netanyahu as a “doormat.”

It is critical to change the designation of “doormat” for our prime minister by Mr. Trump, because a country whose leader is considered a “doormat” will not win Trump’s support on Gaza, Iran, or any other critical issue.

Therefore, with great regret, if we withdraw from Lebanon in the coming days, for the sake of us all, Netanyahu must resign in a process that immediately installs a replacement who will act decisively (e.g., annexation?) to signal to Trump that he is not a “doormat.”

To be clear: I am not looking for an excuse to remove Netanyahu. With all my heart, I want him to do the right thing, so he can continue to lead.

But if Mr. Netanyahu has resigned himself to being President Trump's “doormat,” he must resign.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

PM Netanyahu must resign if he reaffirms his "doormat" status by withdrawing from Lebanon

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 05:55:39 -0500

PM Netanyahu must resign if he reaffirms his "doormat" status by withdrawing from Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 January 2025

We face many critical issues for our future, and if President Trump thinks that our leader is a “doormat,” we are doomed.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a one-time opportunity to change his “doormat” status in President Trump’s eyes.
We all understand that we must keep IDF forces in Lebanon. This is not a political issue in Israel at all.

According to media reports, instead of informing the Trump administration that we are staying in Lebanon, we asked for permission from the Trump administration to remain there, and they objected. It was a mistake to ask for permission instead of declaring our intent, but that is behind us now.

When we caved into Trump’s envoy and accepted the terms of the agreement with Hamas, Trump labeled Netanyahu as a “doormat.”

It is critical to change the designation of “doormat” for our prime minister by Mr. Trump, because a country whose leader is considered a “doormat” will not win Trump’s support on Gaza, Iran, or any other critical issue.

Therefore, with great regret, if we withdraw from Lebanon in the coming days, for the sake of us all, Netanyahu must resign in a process that immediately installs a replacement who will act decisively (e.g., annexation?) to signal to Trump that he is not a “doormat.”

To be clear: I am not looking for an excuse to remove Netanyahu. With all my heart, I want him to do the right thing, so he can continue to lead.

But if Mr. Netanyahu has resigned himself to being President Trump's “doormat,” he must resign.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Delay In Lebanon Pullout Gives Rubio 1st Opportunity

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 18:03:34 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Delay In Withdrawal From Lebanon Gives Rubio 1st
Opportunity
Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 January 2025

"I want the Department of State to have the best ideas and the best options
available for the President, and then I want us to be able to execute them
better than any agency in our government. That will also be a task of mine.
I have watched from the congressional side from time to time,
administrations in both parties, in which sometimes the Department of State
has been sort of relegated to a secondary role because some other agency can
move faster or seems to be bolder or more creative. It's not your fault, but
we're going to change that. We want to be at the centerpiece, and we want to
be at the core of how we formulate foreign policy, because we're going to
have the best ideas of any agency and because we're going to execute it
better and faster and more effectively than any other agency in our
government. And I know we have the right team to do it."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Remarks to Employees 21 January 2025

Anyone with eyes in their head knows that the Lebanese Army has failed to
demonstrate that they can be relied upon to prevent Hezbollah from renewing
its threat to Israel from south Lebanon.

So, as the Secretary of State of an administration which strives for "peace"
and not a "piece of paper," Secretary Rubio's first challenge for his team
of experts is to develop and execute a bold and creative program to support
Israel's continued deployment in south Lebanon.

To be clear: not to analyze IF Israel should stay but rather how the United
States will SUPPORT Israel's staying.

This is a fantastic opportunity for the experts at Foggy Bottom to show
their new boss that they can shed the chains of wishful thinking that have
so often hindered them until now.

We here in Israel are very much looking forward to the change!

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Qatar paid Trump's Hamas deal maker $623 million for hotel

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 13:14:55 -0500

Qatar paid Trump's Hamas deal maker $623 million for hotel
Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 January 2025

President Trump may be correct that Steve Witkoff was clueless about Hamas
and Israel when he appointed him to hammer through a hostage deal before the
January 20th inauguration, but Mr. Witkoff certainly knew something about
Qatar.

Qatar Investment Authority purchased Park Lane Hotel for $623m
The building's status was in limbo for almost six years due to the owners'
unsuccessful $1bn auction attempt in 2017.
Hotel Management Network August 30, 2023
https://www.hotelmanagement-network.com/news/qatar-investment-authority-hote
l-623m/?cf-view

The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has purchased the Park Lane Hotel, New
York, which was formerly caught up in the 1Malaysia Development Berhad
(1MDB) scandal, reported Bloomberg.

According to city property records, the hotel was acquired by Qatar’s
sovereign wealth fund for $623m.

The 26-storey property is located on Central Park South, Manhattan.

Financier Jho Low, also known as Low Taek Jho, was a member of the group
that owned the hotel.

In 2022, Low was convicted in the US of corruption charges related to
embezzling billions of dollars from the Malaysian investment fund.

The US Justice Department had at first wanted to confiscate the hotel as
part of its probe against Low.

But the department later reached a deal with the owners, led by developer
Steven Witkoff, for the divestment of the property instead. It holds Low’s
portion of the proceeds in escrow.

The building’s status was in limbo for almost six years due to the owners’
unsuccessful $1bn auction attempt in 2017.

According to a Bloomberg report, real estate and management company Witkoff
Group and the Qatar Investment Authority have not responded to requests for
comment regarding the sale, which was first reported by Pincuso.

In 2019, Mubadala Investment Co of Abu Dhabi purchased a stake in the hotel
for $140m.

This transaction was facilitated by Low’s decision to relinquish his ownersh
ip rights to the property in a US forfeiture lawsuit.

The Justice Department confiscated his ownership share based on allegations
that Low used the money stolen from 1MDB to obtain it.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Israel & UK Issue Different Accounts of their PM's Conversation

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 13:54:29 -0500

Israel and UK Issue Dramatically Different Accounts of their PM's
Conversation =20
Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 January 2025

The Israeli version of the conversation has the UK PM saying they were
looking into their weapons freeze against Israel.

The UK version has the UK PM saying that the UK will do everything it =
can to
support the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.=20

#1 Israeli version
PM Netanyahu Speaks with British PM Keir Starmer
Type: Media Statements
Government: The 37th Government
Publish Date: 21.01.2025
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-uk210125

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this afternoon, spoke with British =
Prime
Minister Keir Starmer, who thanked him for the release of British =
citizen
Emily Damari, and congratulated him on his actions for the release of =
the
other hostages.

Prime Minister Netanyahu raised the issue of the weapons export licenses =
to
Israel that have been frozen in the UK. Prime Minister Starmer said that =
an
evaluation of the issue is being carried out.

#2 UK version
Press release
PM call with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel: 21 January 2025
The Prime Minister spoke to Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu.
Published 21 January 2025
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-prime-minister-netanyahu-=
of-
israel-21-january-2025

The Prime Minister spoke to Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu
today.

The Prime Minister began by offering the UK=92s support for the =
hard-fought
and long-awaited ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which has now
entered its third day.=A0

He offered his personal thanks for the work done by the Israeli =
government
to secure the release of the hostages, including British hostage Emily
Damari. To see the pictures of Emily finally back in her family=92s arms =
was a
wonderful moment but a reminder of the human cost of the conflict, he
added.=A0

The leaders moved on to discuss the need to see the next stages of the
ceasefire deal implemented in full and on schedule, including the =
release of
the remaining hostages. The Prime Minister reiterated that it was vital =
to
ensure humanitarian aid can now flow uninterrupted into Gaza, to support =
the
Palestinians who desperately need it.=A0

Both agreed that we must work towards a permanent and peaceful solution =
that
guarantees Israel=92s security and stability. The Prime Minister added =
that
the UK stands ready to do everything it can to support a political =
process,
which should also lead to a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.=A0

They agreed to continue their close co-operation on defence and security
matters in support of wider stability in the region - particularly in =
the
face of the ongoing threat posed by Iran.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus =
on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Updated Checklist for 19 January 2026 - Did Things Work Out?

Mon, 20 Jan 2025 04:26:23 -0500

Updated Checklist for 19 January 2026 - Did Things Work Out?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 January 2024

"Fortune is the arbiter of one-half of our actions, but that she still
leaves us to direct the other half, or perhaps a little less."
Machiavelli's The Prince

I hope to share very favorable results when I review this checklist in
another year:

1. Iran
1.1. Does Iran still possess the equipment to make weapons-grade uranium?

1.2. Are there Israeli warnings regarding the potential that Iran makes
and/or acquires nuclear weapons which have not been satisfactorily
addressed?

2. Gaza Strip
2.1. Do Hamas and/or Islamic Jihad (either as they now call themselves or as
they relabel themselves) continue to have an active role in what goes on in
the Gaza Strip?

2.2. Does Israel have the intelligence on the ground to detect programs to
rebuild the "resistance"?

2.2.1. When such programs are detected, are they promptly quashed or
recorded in a "target bank"?

2.3. Is absolute "no entrance" enforced in the "security perimeter"?

2.4. Have adequate measures been implemented in the educational system in
the Gaza Strip so that it educates for peaceful coexistence with Israel?

3. Lebanon
3.1 Does Hezbollah have any presence and/or south of the Litani River?

3.2 Does Hezbollah posses any rockets or missiles anywhere in Lebanon?

3.3 Does Israel have effective independent capabilities to identify
violations of the ceasefire?

3.3.1 Are violation resolved by their eradication or are they recorded in a
"target bank"?

4. Judea and Samaria
4.1. Has Israel annexed any area in Judea and Samaria?

4.2. Has illegal Arab construction in Area C been significantly reduced as
compared to a year ago?

4.3. Is the number of final building permits (not the many intermediate
steps) for Israeli construction in the last 12 months significantly larger
than a year before?

4.4. Has there been a significant decline in terror attacks in Judea and
Samaria?

5. IDF
5.1. Has Israel followed through with the implementation of the various
domestic production projects to make Israel "sanction resistant"?

5.2. Is the IDF successfully drafting enough people to meet its needs?

6. Haredis
6.1. Is there effective financial and pedagogic oversight of Haredi
educational institutions?

6.2. Have subsidies, taxes, etc., been revised to discourage able-bodied men
from choosing poverty rather than full-time work?

6.3. Were Haredis drafted in accordance with the capacity of the IDF to
accommodate them (10,000 in 2025)?

6.3.1. Were these Haredis from the mainstream of Haredi society?

6.3.2. Were these mostly young single men?

7. Saudi Arabia
7.1. Has Israel upgraded its relations with Saudi Arabia?

7.1.1. Was this achieved without Israel making any commitment, no matter how
vague, to advance on the "two-state solution"?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il