IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il Middle East News & Analysis en-US 1686167066 1686167066 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Capalon Internet 2.0 imra@netvision.net.il (Aaron Lerner) News & Analysis IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il https://www.imra.org.il/imra_sm.png 144 97 Weekly Commentary: DM Gallant Unintentionally Encourages Membership in Hezbollah via Stone Age Threat for Lebanon https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73965 <p>Weekly Commentary: DM Gallant Unintentionally Encourages Membership in <br /> Hezbollah via Stone Age Threat for Lebanon <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 June 2023 <br /> <br /> Let's imagine for a moment that you live in Lebanon. <br /> <br /> And you see this threat: <br /> <br /> "If Hezbollah makes a mistake and incites a war against Israel, we will <br /> strike them with full force and return Lebanon to the Stone Age." <br /> Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, Tuesday, 6 June 2023 <br /> <br /> And you take it seriously. <br /> <br /> So, what is the smart thing to do? <br /> <br /> On one hand, DM Gallant says that if and when there is going to be a war <br /> between Hezbollah and Israel, the IDF will use its "full force" against <br /> Hezbollah. So, it's hardly going to be a picnic for those serving in <br /> Hezbollah's security forces. <br /> <br /> On the other hand, DM Gallant says that Lebanon will be returned to the <br /> Stone Age. That's all of Lebanon. <br /> <br /> What to do? <br /> <br /> Well, Hezbollah has already demonstrated in the past that it is quite <br /> capable of looking after its members and their families when Lebanon falls <br /> apart. <br /> <br /> The IDF may bomb Lebanon back to the Stone Age but Hezbollah's state within <br /> a state would no doubt supply its members and their families with food, <br /> electricity, medical care, gasoline, and pretty much everything else needed <br /> to weather the storm. <br /> <br /> So, what is the smart thing to do if you live in Lebanon and take DM <br /> Gallant's threat to return Lebanon to the Stone Age seriously? <br /> <br /> To be associated with Hezbollah! <br /> <br /> Oops. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Wed, 07 Jun 2023 15:44:26 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73965 Weekly Commentary: What If Bernard Lewis Was Right About Nuclear Iran Welcoming Apocalypse Rather Than Seeking Deterrence? https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73964 <p>Weekly Commentary: What If Bernard Lewis Was Right About Nuclear Iran <br /> Welcoming Apocalypse Rather Than Seeking Deterrence? <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 1 June 2023 <br /> <br /> "mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the <br /> Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general <br /> destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the <br /> dead -- hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with <br /> this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement." <br /> Bernard Lewis - The Wall Street Journal Aug. 8, 2006 <br /> <br /> It would appear that the overwhelming majority of Israelis participating in <br /> policy discussions relating to the Iranian nuclear challenge think that Iran <br /> seeks nukes to protect their leadership from regime change. <br /> <br /> Unfortunately, these policy makers and analysts simply cannot comprehend <br /> that Iranian Twelvers could actually welcome an apocalypse set into motion <br /> by an Iranian nuclear strike and the response that would follow. Without <br /> saying it explicitly, they are arguing that there is some set of universal <br /> values that has some kind of veto power over belief systems when adhering to <br /> those beliefs can have unsavory results when judged by these "universal <br /> values". <br /> <br /> This is not an inconsequential academic disagreement. <br /> <br /> The attitude of policy makers and analysts towards the threat of a nuclear <br /> Iran would be radically different if they thought that there was even a 25% <br /> chance that Bernard Lewis is correct. <br /> <br /> I daresay that if they gave Bernard Lewis the weight his opinion deserves <br /> that we would have already "pulled the trigger" on a massive operation long <br /> ago. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Thu, 01 Jun 2023 18:39:20 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73964 Weekly Commentary: IDF COS Halevi: Weakening Hezbollah Not On IDF's Agenda https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73963 <p>Weekly Commentary: IDF COS Halevi: Weakening Hezbollah Not On IDF's Agenda <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 May 2023 <br /> <br /> "...Hezbollah's buildup in the country is a major challenge for us. We are <br /> delaying it, but it is difficult to contain it. We constantly need to ensure <br /> that a qualitative gap is maintained and expanded between the pace of our <br /> improvements and what they are doing, and always consider an initiative that <br /> can bring an advantage." <br /> <br /> "Hezbollah is very deterred by the idea of an all-out war with Israel." <br /> IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi this Tuesday at the Herzliya Conference <br /> <br /> Let's break this up: <br /> <br /> "We are delaying it" - slowing the pace of Hezbollah's buildup. <br /> <br /> "but it is difficult to contain it" - Israel has a hard time stopping <br /> Hezbollah from building up. <br /> <br /> "We constantly need to ensure that a qualitative gap is maintained and <br /> expanded between the pace of our improvements and what they are doing." - <br /> our program is to improve our own capabilities. <br /> <br /> "Hezbollah is very deterred by the idea of an all-out war with Israel." - <br /> let us ignore that the question was never if Hezbollah is interested in <br /> engaging in a full scale conflict with Israel but instead if Hezbollah would <br /> refuse to launch a full scale conflict with Israel if Iran ordered them to <br /> do it. <br /> <br /> We can draw two conclusions from this presentation: <br /> <br /> #1. Israel apparently has no intention to launch an operation, at its own <br /> initiative, to significantly reduce Hezbollah's huge buildup. ("always <br /> consider an initiative that can bring an advantage" can be interpreted as <br /> meaning a lot of things other than what is termed "mowing the grass" when we <br /> engage in operations on other fronts to reduce the buildups of our enemies.) <br /> <br /> #2. Israeli officials continue to rely on the "deterrence" of Hezbollah's <br /> leaders in Lebanon when the real decision makers regarding if Hezbollah <br /> engages in a full scale conflict with Israel sit in Teheran. <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Wed, 24 May 2023 17:03:42 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73963 Weekly Commentary: Theological Debate Impossible - Numbers Should Drive Policy on Work and Skill Acquiring Disincentives For Haredis https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73962 <p>Weekly Commentary: Theological Debate Impossible - Numbers Should Drive <br /> Policy on Work and Skill Acquiring Disincentives For Haredis <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 May 2023 <br /> <br /> It is impossible to engage in a theological debate with Haredis on policy. <br /> It is pointless, for example, to cite text in the Bible without relying on a <br /> rabbinical interpretation. Midrash has a higher standing than the text of <br /> the Bible. Thus we have Haredis citing the "precedent" that King David had <br /> an equal number of men studying Torah as serving in his army and proposing <br /> that Haredis are the modern day Issachar tribe which studies Torah while the <br /> rest of us are a modern day Zebulun tribe working to support them. <br /> <br /> This leaves us with the numbers. <br /> <br /> #1. Of Israeli Jews age 25-64 only 31% of Haredi men and 37% of Haredi women <br /> work full time while among Jews who do not identify themselves as being <br /> Haredi, 76% of men and 59% of women work full time. (Source: Hebrew print <br /> edition of Haaretz using a June 2022 report of the Knesset Information and <br /> Research Center based on data from the end of 2021). <br /> <br /> So when a Haredi argues that he works and all Haredis work he and his <br /> friends could very well be among the 31%. But that personal experience <br /> doesn't change the figures. <br /> <br /> #2. The 11% of Haredis who term themselves "modern" comprise 11% of the <br /> Haredi population and average 4.7 children per 40 year old woman while those <br /> terming themselves "ultra conservative" comprise 28% of the Haredi <br /> population and average 8.2 children. "Conservative" are 32% with 7.1 <br /> children and "with a touch of modernity" are 29% and 5.6 children. <br /> (Source: Telephone poll 2018, Lee Kahaner, Haredi Society on the Axis <br /> between Conservatism and Modernity, Jerusalem: Israel. Democracy Institute, <br /> 2020) <br /> <br /> All other things being equal this huge difference in family size would <br /> indicate that the representation of "ultra conservative" and "conservative" <br /> in the Haredi population will rise significantly over time. <br /> <br /> Combine #1 and #2 and we find ourselves with a society in which a huge chunk <br /> of the population simply does not carry its own weight. <br /> <br /> Yes. Those 31% Haredi men working full time (probably less over time as <br /> more are "ultra conservative" and "conservative") can be the source of <br /> encouraging anecdotal coverage of Haredi "success stories". <br /> <br /> But the other 69%, along with the 53% of Haredi women not working full time, <br /> simply aren't generating the income to be able to cover their cost to <br /> society either via income tax or the VAT they pay to buy things with the <br /> little money that they have. <br /> <br /> They do not cover their medical care (the Government pays the health funds <br /> per person in the fund), education, transportation and other expenses which <br /> have a marginal cost per resident while benefiting from low income linked <br /> transfers and discounts along with subsidies for those who choose to study <br /> Torah rather than work. And that's before we even talk about sharing the <br /> cost of national defense and other big ticket items. <br /> <br /> The numbers are much much worse than the numbers that the talking heads <br /> mention. They talk of 50% of Haredi men working when only 31% work full <br /> time. The 81% labor force participation rate of Haredi women is seen as an <br /> indication that the problem is only with Haredi men when only 37% of them <br /> work full time. <br /> <br /> It would be comforting to be able to conclude with a policy recommendation <br /> guaranteed to significantly raise the labor force participation rate. <br /> <br /> But Haredi politicians argue that economic considerations play no role in <br /> the decision not to work and the 6% increase in 2009 in the Haredi <br /> employment rate in the wake of then Finance Minister Netanyahu's reduction <br /> in child benefits is seen by some economists as inconclusive. <br /> <br /> In the least we can say that a key step to solving a problem is recognizing <br /> that it both exists and is significant. <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 19 May 2023 07:56:18 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73962 Weekly Commentary: Hamas and Hezbollah Patient (In Coordination With Iran) - Not Deterred https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73961 <p>Weekly Commentary: Hamas and Hezbollah Patient (In Coordination With Iran) - <br /> Not Deterred <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 May 2023 <br /> <br /> It is critical that Israeli policymakers understand that Hamas and Hezbollah <br /> patience, rather than Israeli deterrence or Israeli carrots, explains why <br /> they haven't actively joined in the battle between Islamic Jihad and the <br /> Jewish State. <br /> <br /> Iran is indeed patiently building up the attack capabilities of Hamas and <br /> Hezbollah and has no intention to waste their huge investment. <br /> <br /> And the crime is that under "quiet for quiet" the only thing Israel is doing <br /> about these massive programs is to dutifully record each weapons factory, <br /> testing site, armory, etc. in a target bank. <br /> <br /> Yes. Weapons destined for Hezbollah may be destroyed if they are in Syria. <br /> But the moment they cross the border into Lebanon its target bank time. <br /> You've no doubt read about the GPS upgrade kits which turn rockets into <br /> guided missiles which we have destroyed in Syria. When the very same kits <br /> land in Beirut Airport we do nothing. <br /> <br /> Yes, people mysteriously die in Lebanon. But there's no open source coverage <br /> of mysterious explosions or other activities in Lebanon which would indicate <br /> that the Jewish State is doing anything substantial to prevent the ongoing <br /> upgrade of many tens of thousands of rockets into guided missiles. <br /> <br /> So these days Hamas has been sitting back and observing our method of <br /> operations against rival Islamic Jihad so that it can improve its own <br /> military accordingly. <br /> <br /> Hamas will continue to openly test their rockets as they extend their range <br /> and warhead weight. And we will take notes. <br /> <br /> Hamas one day will, if they haven't already, introduce guided missiles. And <br /> we will take notes if we are even aware of it. <br /> <br /> Hamas will improve and practice their use of drones. And we will take <br /> notes. <br /> <br /> Hamas will continue carrying out huge military exercises in preparation for <br /> judgment day. And we will take notes. <br /> <br /> And when the "quiet for quiet" ceasefire with Islamic Jihad goes into effect <br /> they also can gleefully openly begin producing rockets for the next round. <br /> And we will tale notes. <br /> <br /> Its not deterrence its patience. <br /> <br /> Its not work permits. Its patience. <br /> <br /> Allowing Gaza to build a seaport or airport won't change their determination <br /> to prepare and ultimately participate in judgment day. <br /> <br /> To be clear: I support improving the economic lot of Gazans. I think it's a <br /> good idea to allow as many Gazans to be gainfully employed in Israel as <br /> possible subject to security considerations. <br /> <br /> But I harbor no illusion that these Israeli "carrots" will somehow prevent <br /> Hamas from following attack orders issued from Teheran when that day comes. <br /> <br /> Israeli policymakers must recognize this. <br /> <br /> Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu rightfully sees Iran as our existential <br /> threat. <br /> <br /> But our ability to carry out an operation against Iran and the consequences <br /> of such an operation would be profoundly different if we FIRST destroy the <br /> military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah. <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sat, 13 May 2023 16:13:57 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73961 Haaretz Documents That Crisis Caused By Refusal of Opposition Parties To Participate in Democratic Legislative Process https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73960 <p>Haaretz Documents That Crisis Caused By Refusal of Opposition Parties To <br /> Participate in Democratic Legislative Process <br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 May 2023 <br /> <br /> Unintentionally, "Know Yariv" by Hilo Glazer Haaretz Supplement 5.5.2023, <br /> provides a strong indictment against those parties which refused to <br /> participate in the democratic legislative process in the Knesset for <br /> judicial reform. <br /> <br /> "he (Justice Minister Levin) did not intend for his plan to pass in its maximalist version, <br /> and he admitted that he planted many bargaining chips in it.... With the <br /> passage of time, his spirit darkened and he expressed to his interlocutors <br /> authentic frustration at the feeling that there was no one to talk to on the <br /> other side." <br /> <br /> ________________________________________ <br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis <br /> <br /> Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on <br /> Arab-Israeli relations <br /> <br /> Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sat, 06 May 2023 16:30:28 -0400 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=73960