IMRA Middle East News Updates

Dr. Raz Zimmt to IMRA: Iran's policy towards Israel not expected to be

Mon, 18 Nov 2019 11:04:19 +0000

Dr. Raz Zimmt to IMRA: Iran's policy towards Israel not expected to be
changed by domestic protests
Follow up on:
Iran's fuel riots: a snapshot and initial significance
By Dr. Raz Zimmt - INSS
https://bit.ly/2NWybcd

From: Dr. Aaron Lerner
18 November 2019
Subject: Question for you - Iran's fuel riots: a snapshot and initial
significance

Hi,

Very interesting article.

One question – under normal circumstances one would expect the temptation to
be great to deflect the public’s attention from domestic problems by having
an active conflict with Israel via their agents.

But today the protestors are specifically citing the funding of Hizbullah as
a source of the economic problems and calling for Iran NOT to devote
resources to the struggle against the Jewish State.

So – from Israel’s standpoint, how does this change our assessment of the
situation vis-à-vis how it impacts us?

Best regards,
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA www.imra.org.il
PS: I would like to share your response with IMRA readers

From: Raz Zimmt
Sent: Monday, November 18, 2019 11:37 AM
To: imra@netvision.net.il
Subject: Re: Question for you - Iran's fuel riots: a snapshot and initial
significance

Dear Dr. Lerner,

Thank you for your email.

I don't think Iran has any interest in engaging itself in an active conflict
with Israel because it fully realizes its potentially dire consequences for
both its economy and security interests. Iran has usually tried to limit its
conflict with Israel to the use of proxies without getting directly involved
in a full-scale confrontation with Israel.

On the other hand, Iran considers its continued support for its proxies and
partners in the region, including Hizballah and the Palestinian
organizations as the core of its regional strategy both from ideological
point of view (considering its support as its revolutionary and religious
responsibility) also from its national interests aimed to expand its
regional influence and to deter its rivals, including Israel. Therefore,
despite public reservations concerning Iranian resources devoted to the
struggle against Israel (which are, by the way, nothing new, as we have seen
those voices in almost every wave of protests in Iran since late 1990s), I
see no reason to believe that Iran will change its policy towards Israel or
reconsider its support for its regional proxies.

Best regards,

Dr. Raz Zimmt

INSS

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Hamas Is Patient - Not Deterred

Thu, 14 Nov 2019 22:12:50 +0000

Weekly Commentary: Hamas Is Patient - Not Deterred
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 November, 2019

Hamas wants to pick the time and place for conflict with Israel.

This is a matter of patience rather deterrence.

Under quiet for quiet (Q4Q) Hamas has a free hand to devote a major portion
of its resources to prepare for the conflict. They continue to fabricate
and smuggle in rockets, armed drones and much more in ever increasing
quantities and ever improved versions. Their army has implemented an
ongoing training program including large scale exercises.

It would be a terrible mistake to interpret the decision by Hamas not to
participate so far in the current round of fighting as an indication that
they are somehow shifting from "guns" to "butter".
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Tue, 12 Nov 2019 22:28:31 +0000

Weekly Commentary: Adjust Target Bank In Light of Social-Political Developments in Lebanon

Fri, 08 Nov 2019 14:08:56 +0000

Weekly Commentary: Adjust Target Bank In Light of Social-Political
Developments in Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 November, 2019

No one knows how the popular protest in Lebanon will play out.

And that makes it that much more difficult to predict what Hezbollah, which
faces the possibility of suffering a major loss in power and position in
Lebanon, may do in order to quell the protests.

It would hardly be surprising if Hezbollah sought to divert the wrath of the
public towards Israel.

Which brings us to the IDF "target bank".

The target bank includes Lebanese infrastructure that we might destroy in
response to Hezbollah attacks on Israeli civilian targets.

We have to ask ourselves if destroying Lebanese infrastructure would serve
the interests of Hezbollah.

Would the Lebanese public scorn Hezbollah for its role in the series of
events that ultimately caused Israel to plunge Lebanon into darkness or
would the Israeli attacks focus the Lebanese public against a common Israeli
enemy?

It is best that we invest a lot of creative thinking now to come up with
targets that meet two criteria:

#1. Their destruction is perceived by all players as a serious quid pro
quo. We cannot afford to be seen as weak.

#2. Their destruction does not cause the Lebanese civilian population to
unite against us.

Beyond this we face the incredible challenge of a multitude of legitimate
military targets (rockets, armories, etc.) that Hezbollah has placed behind
civilian human shields that we must destroy in the event of a conflict in
order to preserve our own security. Advance multidisciplinary preparations
to meet this technological-diplomatic-PR challenge are critical.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Wed, 06 Nov 2019 21:17:27 +0000

Weekly Commentary: Is historic window of opportunity slamming shut?

Fri, 01 Nov 2019 13:25:07 +0000

Weekly Commentary: Is historic window of opportunity slamming shut?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 November, 2019

For 8 years we were told that our hands were tied because Mr. Obama was
president.

And when Mr. Trump came into office there was always a good reason to
postpone exploiting what has been seen as an historic window of opportunity
to take our destiny in our hands.

So here we are, with the days ticking away, and its not even clear when we
will finally have a new government in place with the clear authority to take
such major moves. And this despite the broad consensus supporting many of
these measures (for example applying Israeli law to the Jordan Valley).

Let's be clear: peel away the rhetoric of our Sunni neighbors and the truth
is that their willingness to work together to address shared concerns (e.g.
Iran) would not be impacted one iota if we took dramatic historic action
this side of the Jordan River.

Curiously, the remarks of the Democratic presidential candidates should
serve, if anything, to prod us to act now.

After all, their calls are to halt funding and support for MORE activity in
the "West Bank".

So far no candidate has suggested blackmailing the Jewish State into
dividing Jerusalem or withdrawing to the Green Line.

Yes, we have a lot on our plates, what with heightened security concerns.

But when one considers that the most important actions relating to our
sovereignty this side of the Jordan River can be accomplished in literally
one cabinet meeting, there is most definitely still enough time remaining
before the 2020 US elections.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il