Israeli commanders reveal plans for mass evacuation of Lebanese civilians in
next war
By: Barbara Opall-Rome, June 21, 2017
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/israeli-commanders-reveal-plans-for-mass-evacuation-of-lebanese-civilians-in-next-war

HERZLIYA, Israel — The next war in Lebanon will be so powerfully punishing —
with thousands of targets struck in the first day of an attack — that
hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians will have to leave their homes
or risk falling victim to “collateral damage,” according to top Israeli
military commanders here.

“I have good news for the people of Lebanon,” Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, the
commander of Israel's Air Force, told participants at the Herzliya
Conference on Wednesday. “Since Hezbollah has decided to be in urban areas,
in those closed apartments where they launch rockets, if the people of
Lebanon are to leave those houses before an event begins, they will not be
in harm’s way.

"I am certain that if war breaks out on the northern front, we need to take
strong action from the word 'go.' ”

According to Eshel, Israeli air power — both qualitatively and
quantitatively — “will surprise our rivals in ways they can’t even
perceive.” He noted, presumably in reference to Israel’s war in Gaza during
the summer of 2014, that the Israeli Air Force “has had [the] opportunity to
test ourselves, so what I’m saying is not just a theory.”

Eshel noted that the lethality of Israeli air power, despite “unprecedented
precision,” has “some potential to damage those who are uninvolved,” which
presents limitations to Israeli war planners.

“This limitation, too, is taken into consideration. I don’t want to go into
too much detail, but we are trying to limit this as much as possible.
Morally speaking, we want to make that collateral damage as little as
possible. Not zero. I don’t want to delude myself. But as little as
possible.”

Eshel declined to explain how Lebanese civilians would leave their homes,
where they would go or who would be responsible for the evacuation. But Lt.
Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s top military officer, indicated that
evacuations would be done by Israel.

In an address the previous evening to the same Herzliya gathering, Eisenkot,
the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, spoke about
“hundreds of thousands of civilians” who would need to be evacuated in
Israel’s next war with the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militant organization.

“The moment we know the enemy goes into urban terrain, it becomes a matter
of morals and values. There are hundreds of thousands in the civilian
population. We’ll need to evacuate them … and we’ll have to do that as
quickly as possible. We need to preserve legitimacy while fighting,”
Eisenkot said.

Israel’s top military officer declined to say how such an evacuation would
be carried out without civilian consent or how Israel could possibly venture
such an undertaking without ruining the element of a surprise attack and
putting large numbers of Israeli forces in danger.

He noted, however, that the Air Force is capable of striking “thousands of
targets a day should we be required to do so.”

Eisenkot, a former commander of Northern Command with territorial
responsibility for Lebanon and Syria, served as the IDF’s director of
operations during Israel’s last war in Lebanon in 2006. In the 11 years
since that war, he said, Israeli intelligence, air power and ground
maneuvering capabilities have improved tremendously as a result of
significant investment and training.

The IDF chief charged Hezbollah with “crudely violating” United Nations
Resolution 1701, which mandated demilitarization of the area beyond Israel’s
northern border, and claimed 240 villages and towns in south Lebanon would
be legitimate targets in the next war. “We have very good intelligence, and
we know them well. Hezbollah has 240 villages and towns where almost every
third or fourth house has some Hezbollah force in it.”

Additionally, he said, Hezbollah has built up “thousands of underground
locations” and “many tens of thousands of rockets and other capabilities,”
most of which has been provided by Iran.

According to Eisenkot, Hezbollah is now heavily immersed in fighting in
Syria alongside Russia on behalf of the regime of Syrian President Bashar
Assad. This accruing military experience is something Israel “cannot
ignore,” he said. At the same time, Hezbollah has lost some 1,800
combatants over the last three years and suffered some 8,000 wounded.

The IDF chief acknowledged that Israel has made “great efforts” to stop
Iranian- or Syrian-supplied arms from reaching Hezbollah, actions that until
recently have been neither confirmed nor denied by Israeli officials.
“Preventing weapons from reaching the hands of Hezbollah is a top priority
for the IDF,” he said.

He also asserted that Hezbollah was taking possession of Russian weaponry
without authorization. “Russian weapons are getting into their hands under
the noses of the Russians without their approval,” Eisenkot said.

In his June 21 address, Eshel, the Air Force commander, said that since the
2006 Lebanon War, Israeli air power has improved to the point that it will
now take the service only 40 to 60 hours to strike the number of targets
attacked during the entire 34-day war 11 years ago. “I’m saying that
quantitatively speaking we have doubled or quadrupled [the ability to
generate and attack targets].”

Nevertheless, Eshel acknowledged that in the next Lebanon war — due to
Hezbollah’s acquisition of advanced capabilities — Israel should expect a
worse-case scenario where it sustains fire on some of its air bases and/or
airborne air assets. But, he insisted, “these two factors — fire on Air
Force bases and threats on aircraft … cannot stop our Air Force.

“This huge machine that is the sum of surprise, quality and quantity will
work. Don’t misunderstand me. There is no magic solution or spell. But it is
a potent power and a lot more than anyone can estimate.”

Twitter: @opallrome