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Wednesday, March 1, 2006
PCPO Poll of Palestinians:Hamas should 62.2% stop the Qassams, 94.5% Collect unlicensed weapons, 83.3% Don't give up right of return [corrected]

[IMRA: Questions 9, 10, 11 are corrected - there were typos in the original
English translation from PCPO that reversed the results - the Arabic version
was always correct]
Poll No 150. (duties or policies the Palestinians demand from Hamas).

Date: 28 February 2006

Dear Madam,
Dear Sir,

It's our pleasure to contact you today on the 12th anniversary of the
foundation
of our polling and research center, the Palestinian Center for Public
Opinion, by sending to you the results of our poll no. 150.

The target of this present poll is to examine the Palestinian public opinion
for a set of burning key issues, especially after the victory of Hamas in
the last legislative elections. It is pressing to know which issues, duties
or policies the Palestinians demand from Hamas to implement in the coming
few weeks. It is furthermore important to know the people's attitude towards
the extension of the constitutional competencies and jurisdictions of the
PA-President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, and the grade of his popularity, and the
possible participation of Fateh in the coming government with Hamas. Last
but not least, this poll examined the behaviour of the Palestinian voter in
the light of the discrepancy between the forecast poll results and the real
outcome of the elections.

We in the PCPO do believe that we have made with this poll a further step
towards the democratization of the Palestinian society, and a further step
also, so tiny it may be, towards the achievement of peace in our region.

If you wish to view the whole poll results, so all you need is to revert to
our website: www.pcpo.ps

Please feel quite free to contact us immediately if you have any questions
or inquiry on any issue of this poll.

With our good wishes and best regards,

Dr. Nabil Kukali
Director of PCPO

In a recent study on the Palestinian public opinion
prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali

(51.5%) are in favour of Fateh's participation in a government of a national
unity.

(69.6%) support to various degrees the PA president, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas.

(41.5%) are of the opinion that Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh is the best personality
to lead the coming Palestinian government.

(83.3%) oppose to various degrees the waiver of the right of home-return.

(69.8%) are in favour of the resumption of the negotiations with Israel.

(93.8%) demand from Hamas to improve the economic conditions and to abate
the rate of unemployment.

(80.4%) are in favour of the continuation of the ceasefire with Israel.

(69.6%) trust to various degrees the local public opinion polls.

(17.2%) changed their mind upon voting for the candidates of the electoral
districts on the election day, and (14.0%) did
the same upon voting for the national lists.

(50.8%) agree to various degrees the recognition of the State of Israel by
Hamas.

Beit Sahour: Information Section

For the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted and published by
the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the period from
February 16 - 20, 2006, a random sample of (1003) Palestinian adults over 18
years old representing the different demographic specimen of the people
living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip was
interviewed. The poll results have shown that the majority of the
Palestinian people is in favour of the participation of Fateh in a
government of a national unity with Hamas. Dr. Nabil Kukali, the director of
PCPO, said the most important findings of the poll is that the majority of
the Palestinians is in favour of granting the PA President broader
constitutional competencies and added that (54.9%) believe that the
condition of the Palestinian society after the victory of Hamas in the
legislative elections will become better than at present.

Dr. Kukali further pointed out that (41.5%) of the Palestinians (54.7% in
Gaza Strip and 39.4% in the West Bank) are of the opinion that Mr. Ismael
Haniyyeh is the best personality to lead the coming Palestinian government.

The first task the Palestinian people unanimously demand from Hamas is the
improvement of the economic condition and the abatement of the rate of
unemployment, Dr. Kukali said. This is followed in the rank of importance
by: combating the corruption, enforcing reforms and changes to the
governmental performance, putting an end to the phenomenon of lawlessness,
prevalence of security and safety, collection of the unlicensed weapons,
imposition of the sovereignty of the law, the continuation of the ceasefire
with Israel, resumption of the peace process and the halt of firing
Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza, he added.

Dr. Kukali further indicated that (83.3%) of the Palestinians (89.8% in Gaza
and 79.8% in the West Bank) oppose to various extents the waiver of the
right of home-return and its substitution by the financial compensation of
the refugees instead, and added that the majority of the Palestinian people
oppose the phenomenon of abduction of foreigners and the attack on the
offices of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH) and on the
residences of the European Union in Gaza in the background of the abuse of
prophet Mohammed by Danish media.

Dr. Kukali explained that the discrepancy arising between the forecast
polling results and the outcome of the legislative elections is attributable
to a series of factors, the most important of which in the rank of their
substance are as follows: (a) the voters didn't tell the truth about their
real intentions for whom they are voting when asked about that by the
interviewers; (b) the intention of the voters to cast their votes against
Fateh for Hamas, however not for other minor lists, and (c) the change of
the voters' mind in the last minute before balloting. "The findings of this
present poll came to explain the discrepancy between the results of the poll
conducted before January 25th, 2006 and the real outcome of the elections,
namely (14.0%) of the voters changed their mind when voting for the national
lists and (17.2%) did the same when voting for the candidates of the
electoral districts", Dr. Kukali remarked. These rates of "changing one's
mind in the last minute" were in the West Bank with 19.3% at the level of
the electoral districts much higher than in Gaza with only (4.2%); and the
rate at the level of the national lists reached in the West Bank (23.1%)
against (5.9%) in Gaza Strip, he added. In conclusion, the results of the
poll show clearly that a considerable rate of the Palestinian people, namely
(69.6%) still trusts to various degrees the local polls.

Findings

Q.1 Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are in favour of the
participation of Fateh in a government of national unity with
Hamas. Others oppose that. Which of the following two options is next
to your opinion?

28 February 2006Response
51.5% 1. Participation of Fateh in the formation of the coming government.
48.5% 2. Non-participation of Fateh in the formation of the coming
government.

Q.2 What is the degree of your support at present to Mr. Mahmoud Abbas?

28 February 2006Response
18.1% 1. Strongly support him
51.5% 2. Somewhat support him
18.1% 3. Somewhat don't support him
08.8% 4. Strongly don't support him
03.5% 5. Don't know

Q.3 Are you in favor of granting the Palestinian President more extended
constitutional competencies, or not?

28 February 2006Response
51.3% 1. Yes
45.3% 2. No
03.4% 3. Don't know

Q.4 Which personality you think is efficient to preside the upcoming
Palestinian cabinet?

28 February 2006Response
41.5% 1. Ismael Haniyyeh
12.1% 2. Mahmoud Al-Zahar
07.4% 3. Khaled Mish'al
06.7% 4. Salam Fayyad
06.5% 5. Marwan Bargouthi
05.8% 6. Mohammad Dahlan
03.6% 7. Ahmed Sa'adat
03.1% 8. Mustafa Barghouthi
01.9% 9. Azeez Aldweak
01.5% 10. Saeb Ereikat
09.9% 11. Other

Q.5 Hereunder is a series of reasons, which could have conduced to the
discrepancy between the forecast poll results and the
actual results of the Palestinian legislative elections. Which of
these reasons are plausible
(answer please with "yes") and which are implausible (answer please
with "no") for you personally ?

1. The candidates and the different lists were not convincing to the
people.
Yes:58.8%No:40.5%Don't Know:0.7%

2. The voters didn't tell the truth about their real intentions, for whom
they were going to vote,when asked by the interviewers.
Yes:71.7%No:27.8%Don't Know:0.5%

3. The partiality of the research and polling centers for certain
candidates or lists.
Yes:35.7%No:59.9%Don't Know:4.4%

4. The voters changed their mind in the last moment.
Yes:63.1%No:35.7%Don't Know:1.2%

5. The intention of the voters to ballot against Fateh for Hamas, but not
for other minor parties or factions, believing that these are incapable of
effecting a substantial change in the electoral representation.
Yes:65.2%No:32.7%Don't Know:2.1%

6. Non-compliance of the constituencies supporting various streams with
their candidates and lists,and therefore voted randomly.
Yes:52.4%No:46.2%Don't Know:1.4%

7. Ambiguity in the understanding of the electoral system. People couldn't
differentiate between"electoral districts" and "proportional
representation".
Yes:41.0%No:56.8%Don't Know:2.2%

8. The big number of the candidates in the electoral districts confused the
voters.
Yes:50.0%No:49.7%Don't Know:0.3%

9. Unintended statistical errors committed by the research and polling
centers.
Yes:31.5%No:64.2%Don't Know:4.3%

Q.6 Are you interested in the polls which are conducted in the territories
of the Palestinian Authority, or not?

28 February 2006Response
19.5% 1. Very interested
51.5% 2. Somewhat interested
16.5% 3. Somewhat not interested
11.4% 4. Absolutely not interested
01.1% 5. I don't know

Q.7 Up to which extent in general do you trust what you read and/or hear
from the polls carried out in the Palestinian territories?

28 February 2006Response
12.3% 1. Too much trust
57.3% 2. Somehow trust
19.0% 3. Don't trust them so much
10.0% 4. Don't trust them at all
01.4% 5. I don't know

Q.8 I am going to read to you a series of policies and duties, which Hamas
could follow. I would like you to tell me whether you
strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly
disagree with each of them.

Response strongly agree somewhat agree somewhat disagree strongly disagree
Don't know
1. Continue the truce with the Israelis.
strongly agree:48.5%somewhat agree:32.0%somewhat disagree:11.3%strongly
disagree :8.1%Don't know:0.1%

2. Improve economic conditions and diminish unemployment.strongly agree:
71.0%somewhat agree:22.8%somewhat disagree:5.7%strongly disagree :0.3%Don't
know:0.2%

3. Combat corruption.
strongly agree:72.6%somewhat agree:17.5%somewhat disagree:8.8%strongly
disagree :0.9%Don't know:0.2%

4. Recognize the State of Israel.
strongly agree:16.1%somewhat agree:34.7%somewhat disagree:17.0%strongly
disagree :31.5%Don't know:0.7%

5. Cease fire Al-Qassam rockets at Israel from Gaza.
strongly agree:27.7%somewhat agree:34.5%somewhat disagree:25.8%strongly
disagree :10.6%Don't know:1.4%

6. Resume the peace process with Israel.
strongly agree:32.2%somewhat agree:37.5%somewhat disagree:20.0%strongly
disagree :9.5%Don't know:0.8%

7. Employ new Hamas activists in the PA
strongly agree:37.4%somewhat agree:36.7%somewhat disagree:18.8%strongly
disagree :5.4%Don't know:1.7%

8. Collect unlicensed weapons.
strongly agree:54.7%somewhat agree:39.8%somewhat disagree:11.8%strongly
disagree :2.9%Don't know:0.8%

9. Carry out reforms and changes in the PA.
strongly agree:61.1%somewhat agree:24.1%somewhat disagree:11.5%strongly
disagree :2.8%Don't know:0.5%

10. Apply force against such groups or organizations that violate the truce
conditions.
strongly agree:29.2%somewhat agree:24.2%somewhat disagree:29.4%strongly
disagree :16.0%Don't know:1.2%

11. Put an end to lawlessness and enforce security and safety.
strongly agree:64.7%somewhat agree:19.7%somewhat disagree:12.1%strongly
disagree :2.8%Don't know:0.7%

12. Impose the sovereignty of law everywhere.
strongly agree:64.8%somewhat agree:17.3%somewhat disagree:11.9%strongly
disagree :5.6%Don't know:0.4%

13. Waive the "right of home-return" and accept financial compensation
instead.
strongly agree:5.5%somewhat agree:10.3%somewhat disagree:17.8%strongly
disagree :65.5%Don't know:0.9%

14. Pass the "Law of Parties"
strongly agree:32.3%somewhat agree:27.1%somewhat disagree:20.6%strongly
disagree :14.0%Don't know:6.0%

Q.9 Please express your attitude towards the phenomenon of abducting
foreigners and Arabs in the Palestinian territories, whatever
the reasons may be.

28 February 2006Response
52.6% 1. Strongly oppose
26.0% 2. Somewhat oppose
15.8% 3. Somewhat support
02.9% 4. Strongly support

02.7% 5. Don't know.

Q.10 Do you approve or disapprove of the attacks carried out on the bureaus
of the European Union in Gaza Strip in the
background of the abusive cartoons of Prophet Mohammed published by
the Danish newspapers?

28 February 2006Response
62.7% 1. Disaprove.
35.3% 2. Approve.
02.0% 3. Don't know.

Q.11 A group of school pupils attacked recently in Hebron the residence of
the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH) in a protest against
the abusive prophet Mohammed cartoons. Do you think that the way that
protest has been made is of benefit to the basic issue, or not?

28 February 2006Response
76.9% 1. It's of no benefit to the basic issue.
20.5% 2. It's of benefit to the basic issue.
02.6% 3. Don't know.

Q.12 In view of the political and economical conditions the country at
present undergoes, are you optimistic or pessimistic about
the future?

28 February 2006Response
62.4% 1. Optimistic.
30.8% 2. Pessimistic.
06.8% 3. Don't know.

Q.13 Will the Palestinian society, according to your opinion, be in the next
weeks after the victory of Hamas in the recent legislative
elections?

28 February 2006Response
54.9% 1. Better than at present.
30.7% 2. Unchanged.
11.8% 3. Worse than at present.
02.6% 4. Don't know

Q.14 In the recent legislative January 25th election, for which of the
following lists or list combinations did you vote?

28 February 2006Response
28.1% 1. National List of Change and Reform (Hamas) and its candidates in
the electoral districts.
11.5% 2. National List of Change and Reform (Hamas) and some of Hamas
candidates, plus independents, in the electoral districts.
05.8% 3. National List of Change and Reform (Hamas) and candidates of Fateh
in the electoral districts.
04.1% 4. Other national lists (excluding Fateh & Hamas) and candidates of
Hamas in the electoral districts.
08.0% 5. Fateh national list and candidates of Hamas in the electoral
districts.
22.3% 6. Fateh national list and its candidates in the electoral districts.
08.8% 7. Fateh national list and some of Fateh candidates and Independents
in the electoral districts.
02.0% 8. Other national lists (excluding Fateh and Hamas) and candidates of
Fateh in the electoral districts.
03.8% 9. Other national lists (excluding Fateh and Hamas) and in the
electoral districts candidates of minor political parties and independents.
05.6% 10. Refuse / Don't know

Q.15 In the elections held on January 25th, 2006, did you vote for the
national list you have already decided before, or did you
change your mind when you have cast your vote?

28 February 2006Response
86.0% 1. My decision remained unchanged.
14.0% 2. I changed my decision.

Q.16 If your answer to the above-mentioned was that you have changed your
decision; please tell me when did this change
happen?

28 February 2006Response
07.5% 1. Inside the polling-booth.
22.4% 2. Before entering the polling-booth
21.6% 3. On the eve of the election day
23.1% 4. Two days before the election day
07.5% 5. 3 - 4 days before the election day
09.7% 6. 5 - 6 days before the election day
08.2% 7. A week or more before the election day.

Q.17 What are the reasons that let you change your mind and vote on the
Election Day for another list than the one decided before?

28 February 2006Response
08.9% 1. The wish of the spouse (wife/husband)
12.6% 2. The wish of the family
13.3% 3. Being convinced by a friend.
08.1% 4. Effect of the election campaign.
11.9% 5. The element of relationship.
15.6% 6. Material enticement.
02.2% 7. Enticement into a job.
03.7% 8. Presentation of a symbolic gift.
17.7% 9. Personal conviction.
03.0% 10. Provision of facilities by the candidate for the transport of
voters on the election day.
03.0% 11. Otherwise, please specify

Q.18 In the election held on 25.1.2006, did you vote for the district
candidate you have already decided before, or did you change
your mind when casting your vote ?

28 February 2006Response
82.8% 1. My decision remained unchanged.
17.2% 2. I changed my decision.

Q.19 If your answer to the above-mentioned was that you have changed your
decision; please tell me when did this change
happen?

28 February 2006Response
06.0% 1. Inside the polling-booth.
18.7% 2. Before entering the polling-booth
29.5% 3. On the eve of the election day
25.9% 4. Two days before the election day
05.4% 5. 3 - 4 days before the election day
07.8% 6. 5 - 6 days before the election day
06.7% 7. A week or more before the election day.

Q.20 What are the reasons that let you change your mind and vote on the
Election Day for another candidate(s) than the one(s) you
have decided before?

Response 28 February 2006
07.1% 1. The wish of the spouse (wife/husband)
11.9% 2. The wish of the family
16.7% 3. Being convinced by a friend.
03.6% 4. Effect of the election campaign.
20.2% 5. The element of relationship.
09.5% 6. Material enticement.
01.8% 7. Enticement into a job.
03.0% 8. Presentation of a symbolic gift.
19.6% 9. Personal conviction.
01.8% 10. Provision of facilities by the candidate for the transport of
voters on the election day.
04.8% 11. Otherwise, please specify

Methodology

"All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondents'
homes, i.e. face-to-face", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research
& Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were taken from a total of
(156) site. These sites are randomly chosen in accordance with PCPO's long
experienced methodology. The margin of error was (3.1%) at a significance
and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively.

Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (49.3%) whereas
that of the male respondents reached (50.7%). He said the composition of the
sample according to the residential area was as follows: (65.4%) West Bank,
including East Jerusalem, and (34.6%) Gaza Strip. Average age of the random
sample of the respondents was (35.0) years.
Mr. E. Kukali further pointed out that the allocation of the sample in
respect of the type of residence was as follows: (51.1%) city, (33.4%)
village and (15.5%) refugee camp. Number of individuals currently living in
the house (of all ages): (6.97) person.
The distribution of the sample with regard to the marital status of the
respondents was as follows: (25.3%) single, (69.5%) married and (5.2%)
otherwise.

Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali & Elias Kukali
Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Telfax: 00970 2 277 2034
Mobile: 00972 547 216 643 / 00970 599 726 878
P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine
Email: kukali@p-ol.com
Website: www.pcpo.ps

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