Weekly Commentary: Perfect Storm For WWIII? Houthi Challenge and Taiwan
Elections - Those Who Fear War Invite It

By Dr. Aaron Lerner, 11 January 2023
[Update: This commentary was distributed 20 minutes before it was announced that the United States, along with others, attacked the Houthis.]

For weeks, American officials have been wagging their fingers, warning of
unspecified consequences if the Houthis don't stop attacking vessels. This
approach hasn't particularly impressed the Houthis. Following their public
rejection of the United Nations Security Council resolution condemning their
activities this Wednesday, it's clear that the Houthis have been closely
monitoring what American officials say.

Consider, for example, Secretary of State Blinken's comments to the press on
January 9th about the situation:

"... no one was looking to create a conflict or to escalate a conflict. On
the contrary, we're seeking to prevent that from happening, but we also have
to uphold basic principles of international law, including freedom of
navigation - and we have to make sure that our own personnel when they're
under threat are being protected.

QUESTION: You said there are going to be consequences. Does that mean
there has been a decision by the U.S. or its partners to take action?

SECRETARY BLINKEN: Look, I'm not going to speculate on what will happen in
the future. We just want to make clear that if these actions by the Houthis
continues, there will be consequences. I'm not going to say anything beyond
that.

The 8th direct presidential election in Taiwan is scheduled for this
Saturday. China has warned of serious consequences if it dislikes the
outcome. I can imagine some savant at Foggy Bottom stitching together a
terrifying picture of all the hotspots in the world with the potential to
draw America into WWIII, recommending a policy to avoid taking serious
action anywhere at all costs.

But, as history teaches us, those who fear war invite it.

If the United States of America is perceived as afraid to take action to
deter the Houthis, this sends a signal to China that Mao was correct in
labeling the United States a "paper tiger."

It is my fervent hope that before the ballots are counted in Taiwan, the
United States gets off the fence and puts the Houthis in their place.

We can ill afford the chaos that could arise if perceived American inaction
emboldens the West's adversaries in this fragile world.

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