Q&A - Biden Launching Unconditional Timeline To Sovereign Palestinian State
By Recognizing Map?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 February 2024

It is believed that the Biden team is working overtime these days to launch
an unconditional timeline to a sovereign Palestinian state with the
publication of a map of the sovereign Palestinian state endorsed by a
collection of countries - including Saudi Arabia and other moderate Sunni
states.

Q: Why a map?

A: Presenting a map whose borders are already recognized by the United
States and others is a message to the world that the unconditional timeline
is serious.

Q: Will the map address all of the territorial issues?

A: There are three schools of thought regarding the map:

The "Beilin-Mazen Approach": Beilin proclaimed to the world that the
"Beilin-Mazen Agreement" addressed ALL the issues even though it actually
relegated the most thorny problems, including Jerusalem, to a future
committee. In the spirit of "Beilin-Mazen," the map could show areas of
Jerusalem with a special shading and the notation "arrangements in this area
to be determined by a special commission" or a similar notation. The same
might apply to large Jewish communities located beyond the Green Line.

The "Pull-off-the-Bandage Approach": A map restoring the Green Line with
Jerusalem divided.

The "Surprise Compromise Map": A map showing major Jewish communities beyond
the Green Line intact with access roads to the Green Line shaded with the
notation that these areas will be transferred to Israel if Israel provides
an acceptable "swap" for these territories by the deadline set in the
timeline. Perhaps the biggest surprise on the map would be in Jerusalem with
the Jewish Quarter also shaded as a candidate for the "swap," with the
Western Wall Plaza part of a Saudi-administered extended Temple Mount
compound which includes plans for a synagogue to be erected in part of the
Temple Mount Plaza area where, until now, children play soccer. To be clear:
this synagogue would not be replacing either the Al Aqsa Mosque or the Dome
of the Rock. It would be located in an area where children play soccer. The
Saudi endorsement of this arrangement would be cited as proof that the
American initiative represents a genuine breakthrough rather than a pathetic
desperate gesture to win Mr. Biden some votes in Dearborn.

Q: How would the map be used to deter Israel?

A: The presentation of the map should be considered within the context of
the Executive Order signed by President Biden as well as possible military
and weapons restrictions.

Q: What would the map have to do with the Executive Order?

A: Following the precedent set recently in which the Bank of Israel
supported the decision of Bank Leumi and the Postal Bank to freeze Israeli
accounts in accordance with the Executive Order (despite that the Order
technically only applied to foreign branches of American banks), Israelis
residing or operating in an area which is designated as being part of the
sovereign Palestinian state would be effectively on notice that their
ISRAELI BANK ACCOUNTS may be frozen if they don't leave before a time set on
the timeline. If the map is a "Surprise Compromise Map," the Israelis facing
the sanctions will put unbearable pressure on Israel to accept a territory
swap, come what may.

Q: What about military and weapons restrictions?

A: Israeli military acting within the area designated as sovereign Palestine
after a date set in the timeline would also risk having their Israeli bank
accounts frozen. No American-made military equipment or supplies can be used
in these areas after a date set in the timeline as well.

Q: Will the Israeli Government act to thwart this announcement?

A: In recent days, Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have
repeatedly stated that a unilaterally established Palestinian state is not
acceptable. It remains to be seen if Mr. Netanyahu's Government is prepared
to thwart the move.

Q: Could Israel thwart the move?

A: Since so many players are involved in this process, Israel will know of
an impending announcement with enough time to act if it has the will to do
so.

Q: What could Israel do?

A: Initiate a move which causes large segments of the Palestinian street to
support an Israeli alternative to a sovereign Palestinian state.

Q: What are the contours of such an Israeli alternative?

A: Annexation of Area C plus Tulkarem (next to Netanya), Kalkiliya (adjacent
to Kfar Sava), and the Jordan Valley including Jericho (which is adjacent to
the Jordanian border) with full Israeli citizenship rights to anyone
residing in the area at the time of the annexation vote by the Cabinet.
Israel announces that COGAT will interface with each non-annexed municipal
region on a case-by-case basis, with both freedom of movement and employment
inside Israel for all residents of the areas not annexed, with the exception
of specific individuals designated by the Israeli security authorities as
being subject to restrictions.

Q: Why would this alternative be considered by the Palestinian street to be
preferable to a sovereign Palestinian state?

A: It would be a no-brainer for the Palestinians granted full Israeli
citizenship rights to prefer this to citizenship in a sovereign Palestinian
state. The prospects of freedom of movement and employment inside Israel for
those in autonomous municipal regions would serve to split those communities
as well.

Q: What about the Israeli street?

A: It is certainly true that, until now, large sections of the Israeli
national camp either objected outright to including areas occupied by
Palestinians in an annexation move or suggested imposing various
requirements which would prevent Palestinians from being granted
citizenship. Some leaders wouldl no doubt object to the move, but there is a
solid majority in both the leadership and the street which would recognize
that desperate times call for desperate measures.

Q: Why not just accept a sovereign Palestinian State as a fait accompli?

A: Two simple truths:

A sovereign Palestinian state would continue to exist as a sovereign state
regardless of what it does in violation of whatever it may have committed
to.

In the real world, "iron-clad security guarantees" are anything but
"iron-clad." Anyone involved in policymaking who cannot come up with scores
of scenarios in which a sovereign Palestinian state that has violated the
restrictions it was subject to becomes the bridgehead for a series of
actions and operations which destroy the Jewish State despite "iron-clad
security guarantees" has no business being involved in policymaking.

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