Weekly Commentary: Deploying Turks in Gaza Risks Catastrophic Conflict
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 December 2025

President Trump's team continues to press for us to accept the participation
of Turkish troops in the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to be
deployed in the Gaza Strip.

These Turkish forces can be expected to do everything in their power to help
Hamas effectively remain heavily armed and dangerous.

I write "effectively" because the Turks could certainly participate in
meaningless photo-op disarmament events.

Turkish forces could not only deploy as human shields for the benefit of
Hamas, but also as a force positioned opposite Israeli lines to intercept
and/or repel Israeli attacks against Hamas targets.

I appreciate that President Trump is not on the same page as we are when it
comes to Turkey in general and Erdoğan in particular.

Washington completely ignored Erdoğan's 30 March 2025 call during Eid
al-Fitr prayers: "May Allah destroy Zionist Israel."

Instead, President Trump praised Erdoğan as "tough" and "very smart."

But Washington's attitude toward Turkey is irrelevant.

Under all circumstances, the Trump team does not want a catastrophic
conflict involving Israel and Turkey.

I appreciate that even if one were to carry out a series of conflict
simulations examining how the deaths of Turkish soldiers in Gaza might play
out under various scenarios, the outcome is never escalation to the point of
a catastrophic armed conflict between Turkey and Israel.

The experts would note that decision-makers would have no choice but to show
restraint, knowing full well that everyone would have too much to lose.

But these simulations take place before real Turks with real families are
killed by Israel.

Not killed in one isolated incident but repeatedly killed as Turkish forces
refuse to back down from shielding Hamas.

A series of deaths that ignites the Turkish street.

This would be followed by a spiraling conflict caused by misjudgments by
both sides and a great deal of bad luck.

Are the odds 50%? 20%? Even just 10%?

None of us - Americans, Turks, or Israelis - can afford to roll the dice on
this.

For everyone's sake, Turkish forces cannot be part of the ISF.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

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