Weekly Commentary: Iranian Refineries a Good Target?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 March 2026

Iran exports crude oil.

Its refineries, however, almost exclusively serve the domestic market.

Iran is already on the edge.

It would take only a few days to take all of its refineries offline.

Such a move could dramatically accelerate regime change by severely limiting
the capabilities of fuel-restricted Iranian security forces while increasing
the economic pressure that drives people into the streets.

Yes, Iran could attack more of its neighbors' refineries.

But the impact would be short-lived.

Consider the Brent futures market. While the spot price is spiking with
passage through the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Brent futures three
months out are only about $10 a barrel higher than pre-war levels.

There's more than enough refinery capacity outside of the Gulf region to
pick up the slack even in a worst-case scenario, in which Iran retaliates by
trying to damage even more of its neighbors' refineries.

So whatever happens in the coming days to Iran's refineries is unlikely to
materially affect what Americans pay for gasoline when they head to the
polls in November.
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