There is also infrastructural buildup: the Egyptian army is building three
bases in Sinai that include airports - in violation of the agreement - while
expanding its other bases in the peninsula and constructing new bunkers.
Satellite imagery has revealed that since 2013, Egypt has built dozens of
floating bridges (mostly military) across the Suez Canal, in addition to a
railway bridge and the digging of tunnels under the canal. All of these will
allow Egypt to move forces into Sinai much faster than before.

To what extent is Egypt building up its forces in Sinai?
Shachar Citron - Hashiloach 42
Grok translation

The Egyptian army is strengthening and violating the peace agreement with
Israel. Whatever the reasons for this may be - Israel must not turn a blind
eye.

"The soldier seeking to assess security threats looks at the capabilities of
other countries, not their intentions," stated Samuel Huntington. One of the
countries with the most developed military capabilities in our region is
Egypt.

Although the peace agreement with Egypt is nearly fifty years old, if we
heed Huntington's advice, this fact should have only limited relevance when
assessing the threat posed by our African neighbor. For the same reason,
Egyptian violations of the agreement in recent years are not necessary to
justify Israeli preparedness on the southwestern border; they merely make it
more urgent.

As befits a country with a population of approximately 110 million people,
Egypt has a numerically large army, with about 440,000 soldiers in active
service and another 480,000 in reserve service (alongside roughly 400,000
soldiers in semi-military armed forces, such as the Central Security Forces
and the National Guard). The ground army includes several thousand armored
vehicles, along with artillery brigades, airborne brigades, special forces,
and more.

However, while the Egyptian army is impressive in terms of numbers, its
qualitative state is far from impressive. It still uses outdated equipment,
much of which dates back to the Soviet era. It is against this backdrop that
Egyptian efforts at buildup and modernization must be understood.

Budget Opacity

Regarding the army's budget and expenditures, the picture is complex.
According to official data, the share of the defense budget in Egypt's GDP
has decreased in recent years - from 1.7% of GDP in 2016 to 0.9% in 2023.
Numerically, the defense budget has not grown in recent years either. In
2015, the peak year of the last decade, the budget stood at $5.48 billion,
but it has not reached a similar level since. In 2023, it stood at only
$3.16 billion. These figures are significantly lower than those of other
Middle Eastern countries. According to Military Balance records, Egypt's
defense expenditures in 2023-2024 shrank by more than 20%, while Saudi
Arabia's, for example, grew by 10-20%, and Israel's grew by more than 20%.

Some see these figures as a reason to calm the discourse about the Egyptian
army's buildup. However, there is reason to suspect that the published
budget does not reflect Egypt's true defense budget. In 2015, for example,
the Egyptian army's purchases from France amounted to approximately $6.8
billion, while the official army budget stood at only $5.48 billion.
Although payments for such a purchase are spread over several years, this
was a purchase from just one country. Given that Egypt is deliberately
trying to diversify its sources of weapons, it is hard to see how such a sum
could fit within the official Egyptian defense budget.

The apparent shrinkage of the official budget also raises suspicion in light
of the series of security challenges Egypt has faced in recent years: the
war in Gaza and the fear of millions of Gazan refugees migrating, conflicts
in neighboring countries such as Libya and Sudan, and the fear of war with
Ethiopia amid tensions over the "Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" and the
water crisis. It is important to note that in addition to the official
defense budget, Egypt receives an annual average of $1.3 billion in American
aid intended for military needs.

Armament and Modernization

As part of its army modernization efforts, over the past decade Egypt has
carried out military purchases and armaments worth tens of billions of
dollars.

According to some estimates, the extensive military procurement led to a
136% increase in Egyptian military imports during 2016-2020 compared to
2011-2015. In 2021, about 45% of Germany's total arms sales (which amounted
to $10.6 billion) were directed to Egypt (approximately $4.8 billion). That
same year, Egypt was the second-largest arms importer from Italy. It should
be noted that one reason for Egypt's diversification of procurement sources
is to reduce its dependence on American imports alone.

Today, according to estimates, Egypt possesses several thousand tanks
(numbers range between approximately 2,000 and 4,000), including 1,100-1,300
relatively advanced M1A1 Abrams tanks (though still far behind Israel's
advanced Merkava models); about 403 fighter jets, including 213 F-16s; about
166 helicopters belonging to the air force, of which 35 are Apache
helicopters, plus another 35 helicopters for the navy. The navy also
operates 20 warships (corvettes and frigates). In addition, the purchase of
Rafale fighter jets from France has made Egypt one of the largest operators
of the Rafale in the world.
Despite Egyptian claims that the procurement is intended to protect gas
fields and fight terrorism, according to accepted military doctrines, a
large portion of the acquisitions - such as helicopter carriers, warships,
and heavy armored vehicles - is better suited for deploying forces against a
regular military opponent, for ground maneuvers, or for the rapid landing of
hundreds of soldiers on enemy shores. For fighting irregular forces like
terrorist organizations in Sinai, Egypt would have been better off investing
in drones and light armored vehicles rather than in warships and submarines.

And What About the Peace Agreement?

According to the peace agreement, in the area up to approximately 30 km from
the border with Israel (Area C), the Egyptians are permitted to maintain
only police forces. In central Sinai (Area B), Egyptian forces are limited
to 4 border guard battalions. In areas adjacent to the Suez Canal (Area A),
the Egyptians are allowed up to 22,000 soldiers, 230 tanks, 480 armored
vehicles, and a limited number of artillery and anti-aircraft batteries. In
addition, Egypt is prohibited from building military bases in Sinai that
include airports. On the Israeli side of the border, along a narrow strip
called Area D, Israeli forces are also restricted.

However, according to assessments and reports, Egypt is not adhering to the
terms of the agreement and justifies this by the need to fight terrorism and
maintain stability in the peninsula. For example, in August 2011, Egypt
moved about 2,000 soldiers accompanied by tanks and armored personnel
carriers into northern Sinai to restore order in the area. It received
Israeli approval for this. Several months earlier, Israel had approved the
transfer of two battalions for the same purpose. In 2012, additional forces
and tanks were moved to the area to fight terrorism, and this time Israel
approved it only retroactively. In September 2021, it was reported that
el-Sisi approached then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett with a request to
change the demilitarization terms and allow the deployment of larger forces
to Sinai.

According to estimates, in 2018 a total of over 44,000 soldiers were
deployed in Sinai (some claim the number reaches up to 66,000) - at least
double what the peace agreement permits. Many of these forces are deployed
in Area C, close to the border with Israel. Of all the soldiers stationed in
Sinai, only 24,000
took an active part in the war on terrorism in the peninsula - the very
reason Egypt originally requested to bring in the soldiers. Egypt also
violates the peace agreement in other areas: it has deployed prohibited
artillery and vehicles, including 200 tanks beyond what is permitted, some
of them even inside Area C.

There is also infrastructural buildup: the Egyptian army is building three
bases in Sinai that include airports - in violation of the agreement - while
expanding its other bases in the peninsula and constructing new bunkers.
Satellite imagery has revealed that since 2013, Egypt has built dozens of
floating bridges (mostly military) across the Suez Canal, in addition to a
railway bridge and the digging of tunnels under the canal. All of these will
allow Egypt to move forces into Sinai much faster than before.

The Egyptian army is building up and modernizing, while at the same time the
demilitarization rules of the 1979 peace agreement are becoming irrelevant.
The intentions of the Egyptians are a matter for speculation - and for
intelligence - but the wise soldier focuses on capabilities, not intentions.
Israeli decision-makers must not turn a blind eye to the capabilities and
actions of our southern neighbor.

Shachar Citron is a researcher at the Security Movement.
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