Trump's Warning: Turkey supports enemy (F-35s to support Iran?)
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 June 2026

President Donald Trump may have delivered the clearest warning yet to
American policymakers regarding Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Turkey's future regional posture.

In Oval Office remarks on June 25, 2026, Trump praised Erdogan in highly
personal terms: "I like him, he is my friend. Erdogan is a great leader, a
very strong person. Everything I've ever asked from him, he's done." But
Trump then made a far more consequential statement. Referring to the recent
conflict involving Iran, Trump said Erdogan "was a prime candidate to go
into the war with Iran - maybe on the Iran side, because he's not a big fan
of Israel," before adding: "I asked him to stay out of it, and he stayed
out."

The significance of the remark is not the praise itself. It is Trump's
explanation for why Turkey allegedly refrained from acting against American
and Israeli interests. Trump did not describe Erdogan's restraint as the
product of NATO commitments, shared strategic interests, deterrence, or
alliance structures. Instead, he explicitly framed it as a personal favor to
him.

That distinction matters enormously.

If Erdogan's restraint depends primarily on his personal relationship with
Trump, then Trump's own statement implies that the restraint could disappear
the moment Trump leaves office. In effect, Trump publicly suggested that
Turkey's current behavior should not necessarily be viewed as reflecting
stable alignment with American strategic interests, but rather as a
temporary accommodation tied to one personal relationship.

For American policymakers that should be a flashing warning sign.

Long-term security planning cannot assume that personal rapport between
leaders is a durable substitute for converging national interests.

If Trump himself is correct that Erdogan stayed out "because I asked him,"
then Washington must also consider the obvious corollary: what happens when
there is no longer a Trump to ask?

It most certainly does not support US interests to supply strategic F-35's
to a country which may very well use them in the defense of Iran after Mr.
Trump leaves the White House!
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

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