STRATFOR: The Mysteries of Saudi Troop Deployments
24 April 2002

Summary

Unusual reports of Saudi troop movements along the northern border with
Jordan have raised several questions. The movements -- ostensibly in
response to an Israeli military buildup or, as Riyadh claims, a routine
military maneuver -- more likely reflect the government's growing concern
with domestic instability.

Analysis

The official Saudi Press Agency confirmed April 23 that Saudi troops were
deployed over the past two weeks to the northwestern region of Tabuk. The
deployment included 8,000 troops, or a total of eight brigades, equipped
with missile launchers and driving armored personnel carriers, Agence
France-Presse reported.

Several explanations for the deployment are possible. An unnamed Gulf
military official quoted by AFP said the maneuver came in response to an
Israeli military buildup near the Jordanian border. The Saudi Press Agency
denied this claim, asserting that the deployment was routine. Another, more
likely possibility is that the movement was triggered by a wave of political
unrest that swept through Saudi Arabia in early April. Although the reason
for the deployment remains in question, it does illustrate the growing
import of even the smallest events in the kingdom.

Despite an appearance of calm, a well of dissatisfaction with the royal
family bubbles just below the surface of Saudi society. How deep this
dissatisfaction runs and how widespread it is remain unclear, but what is
certain is that the government in Riyadh recognizes the danger and is
responding with several unusual maneuvers to quell dissent. But using the
armed forces to launch a security crackdown of some sort, even if in
response to increased dissent, would abrogate the House of Saud's social
contract with the nations' many tribes and invite political and social
chaos. The recent deployment doesn't necessarily indicate a forthcoming
crackdown, but it does raise concerns about stability in the region.

Tabuk is in Saudi Arabia's northwestern quadrant -- just south of Jordan and
west of Sakakah, the scene of recent rioting. It is home to the Northwest
Area Command at King Abdul Aziz Military City. It also hosts the Royal Saudi
Land Forces 7th Armor, 8th Infantry, 12th Armor and 14th Infantry brigades;
the RSLF Airborne School and Brigade; the RSLF Armor Institute and the King
Faisal Air Base with the F-5 2nd Squadron. There is also a U.S. Military
Training Mission based outside the city. If Riyadh were expecting trouble in
the region, reinforcing the military units in Tabuk would make perfect
sense.

Given the tense situation in the region, the claim that the troops were sent
in response to Israeli military activity near the kingdom's border with
Jordan is also, at first glance, plausible. According to AFP's Gulf military
source, the Saudi military was responding to Israeli air force activity near
the border. But Saudi officials claimed Israel was massing troops along the
Jordanian border, The Associated Press reported April 23. It is highly
unlikely that Jordan would not have responded in some way to an Israeli
buildup, and nothing in the way of diplomatic protests or military movements
has emerged from the Hashemite kingdom.

Israel did raise the security alert level in the southern Negev region --
which is separated from Saudi Arabia by only a 15.5-mile strip of Jordanian
territory -- on April 9, about the same time the Saudi troops movements
began. But a number of potential explanations exist for the security alert,
which came during the Israeli military offensive in the West Bank. For
instance, Israel reportedly plans to open an internment camp for
Palestinians outside of Beersheeba in the Negev. Trouble with Palestinian
gunmen in Gaza also may have triggered the alert, as could reports of
Egyptians carrying explosives and trying to cross into Israel from the Sinai
Peninsula.

The Saudi deployment to Tabuk is too far from the border with Iraq or any
other Gulf states to suggest that problems with those nations prompted the
movement.

A second possibility is that Riyadh sent forces to the region to scout out
potential al Qaeda hideouts.

Unconfirmed rumors surfaced last year that Osama bin Laden and his
supporters were using the mountainous deserts of Wadi Rum, south of the
ancient Jordanian city of Petra, as sanctuary. Tabuk is about 62 miles south
of the Jordanian border, with easy access to the valley, and indirect
evidence ties bin Laden to the area. In the late 1960s, after his father
died in a helicopter crash, bin Laden traveled to Tabuk to live with his
mother. Moreover, one of the men involved in the 1998 bombings of the U.S.
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania -- Mohammed Sadiq Howaida, also known as
Odeh -- is from Tabuk.

More recently, bin Laden mentioned the region specifically in a video
statement broadcast by the Al-Jazeera television network in December, asking
"What will stop Israel from killing our sons tomorrow in Tabuk, in Al-Jawf
and around these areas?" And at least one imam, or prayer leader, in the
region has been fired, arrested and ultimately released for supporting bin
Laden.

With his talks with U.S. President George W. Bush imminent, Saudi Crown
Prince Abdullah may have welcomed the idea of searching the region so he
could point out to Bush that the Saudi government was in fact taking
measures to root out al Qaeda supporters. Riyadh's unwillingness to
cooperate in the hunt for al Qaeda and the number of Saudis allegedly
involved in the Sept. 11 attacks have strained relations between the United
States and Saudi Arabia.

A third, and perhaps the most likely, possible purpose for the deployment
concerns mounting internal dissent. Sporadic protests broke out all over
Saudi Arabia in early April, stretching from Dhahran, Damman and Qatif in
the east to Riyadh and Jeddah in the west. In the northern city of
Sakakah -- in the Al-Jawf province mentioned by bin Laden -- there were
conflicting reports of a protest numbering either 300 or 3,000, during which
rioters threw stones at police and security forces were forced to use tear
gas to restore calm.

Protests are illegal in Saudi Arabia, and the outbursts -- though ostensibly
triggered by the Israeli offensive in the West Bank -- also hint at emerging
opposition to the Saudi government. Interior Minister Prince Naif
specifically mentioned the Sakakah rally in a speech a few days later,
dismissing it as the work of a few passionate youngsters demonstrating
solidarity with the Palestinians. But he also warned that the government
would not tolerate further protests.

The reason behind the troop movement remains unclear, with more questions
than answers at the moment. It could have been contingency planning, it
could have been routine maneuvers, it could have been aimed at intimidating
the region's population and maintaining calm. Ironically, the range of
possibilities crystallizes the number of problems plaguing the royal family.

At the moment, it is too early to tell just what is behind the troop
movements. But the incident is too interesting and important to ignore.