'If attacked, Israel might nuke Iraq'
By Ze'ev Schiff Ha'aretz 15 August 2002

If Iraq strikes at Israel with non-conventional weapons, causing massive
casualties among the civilian population, Israel could respond with a
nuclear retaliation that would eradicate Iraq as a country. This grave
assessment, from American intelligence, was presented last week to the U.S.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

During the 1991 Gulf War, then U.S. defense secretary Richard Cheney, now
vice-president, told CNN that Israel could respond with nuclear weapons to
an Iraqi strike that included the use of chemical weapons. This assessment
has only been strengthened since then, because according to all the signs,
Iraq now has biological weapons that could cause mass casualties.

According to one assessment, military-grade biological weapons can be almost
as lethal as a nuclear bomb.

The U.S. intelligence assessments include an analysis of possible Israeli
responses. The lowest probability is that Israel would respond initially
with a conventional military retaliation if it is slightly harmed, and would
add a warning that a non-conventional response was possible if the Iraqi
attacks on the Israeli civilian population continued.

The possibility of Israel using nuclear weapons against Iraq appears in a
document submitted by military expert Dr. Anthony Cordesman, a fellow at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, to the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee. Presumably, the document is based, in part, on official
administration assessments.

In the worst case scenario, writes Cordesman, Israel could face an
existential threat to important urban areas such as Tel Aviv or Haifa. Under
such conditions, it would threaten nuclear retaliation against Iraqi cities
and military forces to cease the [Iraqi] attack.

If the Iraqi attack were to continue, and there was a lethal biological stri
ke on an Israeli city, Israel would certainly respond with nuclear strikes
against Iraqi cities that were not yet in the hands of American forces,
Cordesman says. Such an Israeli reaction could destroy Iraq as a state.

Based on this assessment and the possibility of an Israeli retaliation in
the event of an Iraqi strike, it is presumed that the United States will, at
the earliest stages, make a special effort to neutralize any possible use of
Scud and El Hussein rockets that Iraq positions in its western regions, as
it did in the Gulf War, for a more convenient launching site for attacks
against Israel. During discussions in Washington, Israeli representatives
asked the United States to take action against the missiles in western Iraq.

The Americans know that Iraq is not depending only on long-range missiles in
its plans for using chemical or biological weapons against its enemies,
including Israel. As part of its preparations, Iraq has also been working on
developing pilotless planes. Unlike the usual development of drones used
primarily for intelligence gathering purposes, the Iraqis are working on
normal-sized planes loaded with chemical or biological weapons and intended
to be flown by remote control. They are working on an Eastern European
training plane and on a version of the MiG-21. Both planes have been tested.