Poll Results 15 November 2002

Aaron Lerner Date: 15 November 2002

The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup
Israel)of a representative sample of 1,012 adult Israelis (including Israeli
Arabs) carried out the week of 15 November. Statistical error +/- 3.2
percentage points.

Who would you prefer to see as chairman of the Likud and run as its
candidate for prime minister in the coming elections?
15 November Total: Sharon 37% Netanyahu 29%
8 November Total: Sharon 35% Netanyahu 32%

15 November Vote right: Sharon 39% Netanyahu 45%
8 November Vote right: Sharon 40% Netanyahu 47%

15 November Vote Likud: Sharon 50% Netanyahu 38%
8 November Vote Likud: Sharon 44% Netanyahu 44%

Who would you prefer to see as chairman of the Labor Party and run as its
candidate for prime minister in the coming elections?
15 November Total: Mitzna 26% Ben Eliezer 22% Ramon 13%
8 November Total: Mitzna 25% Ben Eliezer 19% Ramon 16%

15 November Vote Left: Mitzna 46% Ben Eliezer 09% Ramon 20%
8 November Vote Left: Mitzna 37% Ben Eliezer 12% Ramon 22%

15 November Vote Labor: Mitzna 37% Ben Eliezer 24% Ramon 17%
8 November Vote Labor: Mitzna 42% Ben Eliezer 14% Ramon 20%

Is the country going in the right direction?
Yes 18% No 65% Don't know 17%

What are the chance you will vote in the coming elections?
100 percent certain - 51%
Percent that said they were 100% certain by subgroup:
Veteran Israelis 56% New immigrants 54% Arabs 26% Right 56% Left 52%

Are there two ballots (direct election for prime minister) or one ballot in
this coming election? (answer is one ballot):
One ballot 59% Two 19% Don't know 22%

There are those who claim that most of the politicians in Israel as corrupt
DO you agree?
Yes 59% No 30% Don't know 11%

What is most important to you? Security, Economics, Peace, All?
Total: Security 35% Economics 24% Peace 16% All 20% Don't know 5%
Likud: Security 51% Economics 18% Peace 8% All 22%
Labor: Security 29% Economics 24% Peace 18% All 20%
Shas: Security 38% Economics 22% Peace 5% All 12%
Shinui: Security 30% Economics 48% Peace 5% All 14%
Meretz: Security 15% Economics 24% Peace 45% All 16%
NRP: Security 75% Economics 6% Peace 4% All 12%
Nt'l Union/Yisrael Btnu:Security 57% Economics 21% Peace 0% All 16%
Chadash: Security 4% Economics 19% Peace 60% All 11%

If elections held today [method for dealing with undecided not explained] by
Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63 - from 54 current Knesset
Likud 36 National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 Herut 0
Shas 9 NRP 5 Yahadut Hatorah 5

"Center" Total 16 from 19
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 Shinui 10 Am Echad 2 Center 0 Gesher 0
Aleh Yarok 0 Different Israel 0 [party may be blocked from running]

Left/Arabs: Total 41 from 47
Labor/Meimad 22 Democratic choice 0 Meretz 8
Hadash 3 Arab parties 8 [Hadash is mostly Arab]

Ma'ariv 15 November 2002

+++ Dahaf Poll

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of 15
November - not clear exactly the days:

Poll of 540 registered Likud voters:
Sharon 54% Netanyahu 38% Feiglin 1% Undecided 7%
Percent who said they wanted to see the following MKs among the first 7 of
the Likud list:
Sharon 74% Netanyahu 69% Livnat 39% Shalom 22%
Landau 18% Shitreet 15% Livni 9%

Poll of 670 registered Labor voters
Mitzna 50% Ben Eliezer 30% Ramon 13% Undecided 7%
Percent who said they wanted to see the following MKs among the first 7 of
the Labor list:
Mitzna 80% Ben Eliezer 68% Ramon 60% Burg 26% Pines 25% Peres 21% Itzik 19%

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 502:

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 62 - from 54 current Knesset
Likud 34.5 National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 9
Shas 9 NRP 4.5 Yahadut Hatorah 5

"Center" Total 19 from 19
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 Shinui 12 Am Echad 3

Left/Arabs: Total 39 from 47
Labor/Meimad 19 Meretz 9
Arab parties 11 [includes Hadash]
of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs)
carried out on Wednesday, 6 November 2002. Statistical error +/- 4.5
percentage points:

[IMRA: There is no indication how the results of the polling were converted
into Knesset seats, how the "undecided" were distributed between parties and
how partial sets were allocated. It should be noted that a error of +/- 4.5
percentage points is equal to an error of +/- 5.4 seats.]

Yediot Ahronot 15 November 2002.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il