Poll Results 6 December 2002 - Meretz drops to 6-7 seats

Aaron Lerner Date: 6 December 2002

+++ Dahaf Poll

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of
December 6 2002:

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 802:

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63 - from 54 current Knesset [21 Nov- 61, 14
Nov- 62]
Likud 38 National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7
Shas 9 NRP 4 Yahadut Hatorah 5

"Center" Total 18 from 19 [21 Nov-19, 14 Nov-19]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 Shinui 11 Am Echad 3

Left/Arabs: Total 39 from 47 [21 Nov-40, 14 Nov-39]
Labor/Meimad 21 Meretz 7
Arab parties 11 [includes Hadash]

[IMRA: There is no indication how the results of the polling were converted
into Knesset seats, how the "undecided" were distributed between parties and
how partial sets were allocated. It should be noted that a error of +/- 4.5
percentage points is equal to an error of +/- 5.4 seats.]

Likud/Labor by age groups:
Age 18-21: Likud 39% Labor 3%
Age 61+: Likud 26% Labor 24%
Ashkenazis: Likud 23% Labor 19%
Sefardis: Likud 49% Labor 13%
Men: Likud 38% Labor 14% Meretz 2.1%
Women: Likud 28% Labor 18% Meretz 4.8%

Yediot Ahronot 6 December 2002.

+++ "New Wave"
The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out the week of December 6 2002:

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 638:

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 62 - from 54 current Knesset
Likud 40 National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7
Shas 7 NRP 4 Yahadut Hatorah 4 Herut -0-

"Center" Total 16 from 19 current Knesset
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 Shinui 9 Am Echad 2
Different Israel 1

["Different Israel" is a new party formed by the "Different Israel"
association. Different Israel declines to identify its sources of funds.
While the group claims to be neutral with regards to Arab-Israeli issues, it
is composed of various groups from the Israeli Left. The group, that enjoys
the support of some Israeli industrialists, proposes that the country be
ruled by technocrats.]

Left/Arabs: Total 42 from 47 current Knesset
Labor/Meimad 25 Meretz 6
Arab parties 11 [includes Hadash]

[IMRA: There is no indication how the results of the polling were converted
into Knesset seats, how the "undecided" were distributed between parties and
how partial sets were allocated. It should be noted that a error of +/- 4.5
percentage points is equal to an error of +/- 5.4 seats.]

On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is extreme Left and 5 extreme Right, where
would you place:
Beilin 1.6 Mitzna 1.9 Ben Eliezer 2.8 Meridor 3.1
Sharon 4.1 Netanyahu 4.2 Lieberman 4.4

Without regard to the outcome of the elections, who would you like as
foreign minister?
Netanyahu 51% Peres 39%
Likud voters: Netanyahu 77% Peres 18%

Without regard to the outcome of the elections, who would you like as
defense minister?
Mofaz 57% Vilnai 23%

Without regard to the outcome of the elections, who would you like as
finance minister?
Shohat 45% Shalom 26%
Likud voters: Shohat 34% Shalom 38%

Comparing between Sharon and Mitzna, who:
Sharon 57% Mitzna 19% Will better handle the struggle against terror
Sharon 32% Mitzna 35% Will better handle the socio-economic crisis
Sharon 40% Mitzna 35% Will better advance the peace process
Sharon 44% Mitzna 26% More trustworthy
Sharon 45% Mitzna 26% Represents people like me
Sharon 78% Mitzna 9% Will win the elections

What is the most important issue in this election?
Security/Diplomatic 48% Socio-economic 31%
Secular-religious 3% All same extent 16%
Don't know 2%

Vote Likud: Security/Diplomatic 57% Socio-economic 26%
Vote Labor: Security/Diplomatic 39% Socio-economic 37%

Do you support or oppose the establishment of a Palestinian sate?
Support 50% Oppose 40% Don't know 10%
Likud: Support 29% Oppose 58%

Assume the terror stops and Arafat doesn't rule the Palestinian Authority
any more. Then would you support or oppose the establishment of a
Palestinian state?
Support 64% Oppose 27% Don't know 9%
Likud: Support 49% Oppose 39%

Within the framework of such an arrangement, would you support or oppose the
evacuation of all the settlements in the Gaza Strip?
Support 61% Oppose 30% Don't know 9%
Likud: Support 47% Oppose 43%

Within the framework of such an arrangement, would you support or oppose the
evacuation of most of the settlements in Judea and Samaria?
Support 55% Oppose 36% Don't know 9%
Likud: Support 36% Oppose 54%

Ma'ariv 6 December 2002

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il