Dialogue/Ha'aretz Poll Results

Aaron Lerner Date: 9 January 2003

To Ha'aretz's discredit, this is the second week they join the rest of the
media and decline to report the percentage of respondents who fail to reveal
their choice of party. Last week when IMRA asked Ha'aretz they advised that
22% were in the "refuse reply" party.

There is absolutely no way for someone reading the poll results to know how
much confidence to give the figures. Statistical error refers to the
sampling error associated with the raw data - not the cooked figures
presented as neat results by Knesset seat . There is also no way to know
if the method for allocating these seats is consistent from week-to-week.

The following are the results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
of 521 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out on 27 December
2002 for Ha'aretz and published in Ha'aretz on 31 December. Survey error
+/- 4.3 percentage points. Results for the previous poll carried out 31
December 2002 appear in
[brackets]..

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 58 - from 54 current Knesset [60]
Likud 27 [31] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 9 [7]
Shas 13 [11] NRP 4 [6]Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5]

"Center" Total 22 from 19 current Knesset [21]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [4] Shinui 17 [14] Am Echad 2 [3]

Left/Arabs: Total 40 from 47 current Knesset [39]
Labor/Meimad 24 [22] Meretz 8 [9]
Arab parties 8 [8] [includes Hadash]

What do you think Mitzna will do after the elections?
7% Form the next government
16.5% Join with Sharon
28.3% Head opposition
7.6% Leave political life by choice
11.8% be cast out of Labor
28.8% Don't know

If direct elections
Sharon 45.2% Mitzna 29.3% Neither 11.2
Blank Ballot 2.7% Don't know 7.7% Refuse reply 3.9%
[Ha'aretz 9 January 2003]

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il