Friday Polls 10 January 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 10 January 2003

+++ Dahaf/Yediot Ahronot

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out January 8, 2003.

Yediot Ahronot continues to declines to share with the readers how many
respondents refused to reveal how they intended to
vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party seats were allocated among
the real parties.

It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 3.4 percentage
points that is the statistical error associated with the raw poll
results rather than the "processed" results in the Knesset seat table

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 653:
(results from week of 3 January in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63- from 59 current Knesset [62.5]
Likud 28 [32] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 10.5 [8]
Shas 10.5 [9.5] NRP 5 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [4]

"Center" Total 20.5 from 15 [17.5]
Shinui 17 [14] Am Echad 3.5 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 36.5 from 47 current Knesset [37.5]
Labor/Meimad 21.5 [22] Meretz 7 [8]
Arab parties 8 [7.5] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [2]
Aleh Yarok 0 [2] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

[IMRA: The popular presentation of the Rabin dollar account in Washington is
that Yitzhak Rabin resigned when it was found that his wife had committed a
technical foreign currency violation when she inadvertently forgot to close
a small dollar account (Yitzhak Rabin claimed in "The Rabin Memoirs" that it
was $2,000) in a Washington bank from his days as Israel's ambassador to
Washington.

As Justice Barak (Attorney General Aharon Barak at the time of the incident)
explained in an article written by Evelyn Gordon in The Jerusalem Post
(October 27, 1996), "after he had decided to press charges against Leah
Rabin, he was visited one day by then finance minister Yehoshua Rabinowitz.
Rabinowitz asked if it was true that Barak would be unable to press charges
if Rabinowitz levied an administrative fine on Rabin instead. Barak replied
that this was true, but that Rabinowitz had no authority to levy such a
fine: According to Treasury guidelines, administrative fines should be used
in place of criminal charges only if the violation was less than $5,000.
The Rabin bank account contained $20,000. Rabinowitz, according to Barak,
responded that that was irrelevant: The important consideration was that if
the case went to court, Labor would lose the next elections."

The account is believed to contain income from Rabin's public speaking
appearances in America. Investigation of this element of the incident was
not pursued after he resigned. ]

When Rabin's dollar account was discovered, he resigned from the premiership
and Peres took his place. Should Sharon resign and Netanyahu replace him?
Total: Yes 33% No 53%
Support Likud: Yes 11% No 79%
Undecided: Yes 38% No 48%

Do you think that Ariel Sharon knew about the loan that the South African
millionaire gave to his sons?
Total: Yes 61% No 16%
Support Likud: Yes 44% No 32%
Undecided: Yes 67% No 12%

Who is more trustworthy?
Total: Sharon 44% Mitzna 33% Neither 13%
Support Likud: Sharon 89% Mitzna 2% Neither 4%
Undecided: Sharon 32% Mitzna 33% Neither 12%

Yediot Ahronot, 9 January 2003 for party vote and 10 January for remainder

+++ Ma'ariv [results changed from Thursday paper]
The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 8 January 2003:

Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
reveal how they intended to vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party
seats were allocated among the real parties.

Even MORE bizarre: The results published on Friday do not match the results
published the day before from the same survey. On Thursday, Ma'ariv report
that Shas had 12 seats - this dropped to 10 in the Friday paper.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 1,000 sample error +/-
3 percentage points: [result from 1 January in [brackets]]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 62- from 60 current Knesset [65]
Likud 30 [34] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 9 [9]
Shas 10 [9] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 1 [0]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [4]

"Center" Total 16 from 13 current Knesset [14]
Shinui 14 [12] Am Echad 2 [2]
Different Israel 0 [0]

Left/Arabs: Total 41 from 47 current Knesset [40]
Labor/Meimad 22 [21] Meretz 8 [8]
Arab parties 11 [11] [includes Hadash -write up warns that this includes one
seat for Balad - 1.5% of vote is needed to pass the minimum threshold = 1.8
seats]

"Other" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [1]
Aleh Yarok 1 [1] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Are you satisfied with the performance of prime minister Ariel Sharon as
prime minister in general?
Yes 42% No 53% Don't know 5%

Is prime minister Ariel Sharon personally involved in corruption?
Yes 43% No 31% Don't know 26%

Is Omri Sharon involved in corruption?
Yes 57% No 13% Don't know 30%

Assuming it is not a violation of the law, is it proper that the prime
minister receive a loan of $1.5 million from a friend at a time that he
serves a prime minister?
Yes 38% No 51% Don't know 11%

There are those who claim that the media is trying to incriminate Ariel
Sharon so that he will lose the elections. Do you agree?
Yes 50% No 40% Don't know 10%

In light of the latest revelations, of corruption in the parties, should the
elections be held as scheduled or postponed so that the parties can choose
their representatives again?
Elections on time 55% Postpone 35% Don't know 10%

Which issue of the following concerns you the most lately:
Palestinian terror 47% Iraq 15% Corruption 17% All same 13%
Don't know 8%

Does Ariel Sharon have a solution to Palestinian terror?
Yes 26%No 64% Don't know 10%
Vote Likud: Yes 45% No 42%

Doe Amram Mitzna have a solution to Palestinian terrror?
Yes 22% No 63% Don't know 15%
Vote Labor: Yes 63% No 28%

Do you support the erection of a separation fence along the Green Line and
large settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria, in order to separate between
Israel and the Palestinians?
Yes 68% No 25% Don't know 7%

Is Ariel Sharon making all the efforts to erect a separation fence as
quickly as possible or delaying it due to political or ideological
considerations?
Making all effort 20% Delaying 51% Don't know 29%

In reaction to the attack at the old Central Bus Station ion Tel Aviv, the
government decided to prevent a Palestinian delegation from leaving for
London to the summit on reforming the Palestinian Authority. Do you support
this move?
Yes 52% No 39% Don't know 9%

Does the State of Israel properly treat foreign workers in Israel?
Yes 35% No 47% Don't know 18%

Do you support the activities of the Israel Police expelling illegal workers
from the country?
Yes 67% No 23% Don't know 10%

Did you watch the campaign broadcasts on television?
Yes 37% No 63%
[Among undecided, 31% did]

Do the campaign broadcasts influence the vote?
Yes 35% No 59% Don't know 6%

Asked Arabs only: If Ahmed Tibi and Azmi Bishara are disqualified from
running should Israeli Arabs boycott the elections [IMRA: They are running]
Yes 36% No 60% Don' know 4%

Ma'ariv 10 January 2003

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il