Background: Abu Mazen may enjoy carte blanche thanks to appointment drama

Aaron Lerner Date: 23 April 2003

While there were already serious concerns in Israel that Abu Mazen would
enjoy an "automatic pass" policy from the Quartet, the drama surrounding the
formation of his government has created an atmosphere that will make it
extremely difficult for Israel to overcome the "automatic pass policy".

Under the "automatic pass" policy (the policy followed by the United States
during the Clinton Administration) the Palestinian Authority is judged as
being in compliance with its obligations regardless of what it actually
does. Declarations and photo opportunities, as a rule, take the place of
actual compliance.

There is already considerable evidence that Abu Mazen intended to exploit
the automatic pass policy:

+ Abu Mazen enjoys positive press for plans to essentially rename one wing
of the Fatah Tanzim (the "Al Aqsa Brigade" wing of Fatah Tanzim will be
disarmed but the Fatah Tanzim will remain armed).

+ Abu Mazen continues to enjoy the "moderate" and "opponent of terror"
labels
while his declaration of "open hunting season" against Israelis beyond the
Green Line remains in place.

+ The appointment of Dahlan, under whose leadership the PA's Preventive
Security took a leading role in the production of illegal weapons and the
coordination and implementation of terrorist attacks is viewed as a positive
move rather than the negative move that it is.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il