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Sunday, June 8, 2003
Jaffee Center Poll: Israelis More Conciliatory and Optimistic on Key Policy Issues - Support of Peace back to 2001 levels

Jaffee Center Poll: Israelis More Conciliatory and Optimistic on Key Policy
Issues - Support of Peace back to 2001 levels

8 June 2003

In comparison to last year, Israelis are today more optimistic and
supportive of the measures required to move the peace process forward. For
example, 59% now agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the
West Bank and Gaza in the framework of a peace agreement, up from 49 percent
in 2002.
The number of those who thought that a Palestinian state will be established
in the next five years increased from 54 percent in 2002 to 61 percent in
2003 (the figure in 2001 was 60 percent).

This data results from the 2003 annual survey conducted by the Jaffee
Center's project on Public Opinion and National Security. The survey was
conducted through face to face interviews with 1103 individuals -- a
representative sample of Israel's adult Jewish population.

Additional facets of the change in Israelis' opinion are the following:
Those who agreed to abandon all but the large settlement blocks increased
from 50 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2003. The number of those
supporting the idea of separation from the Palestinians by withdrawing
unilaterally even if that meant abandoning settlements increased from 48
percent in 2002 to 56 percent in 2003.

The number of those supporting the conceding of the Arab neighborhoods of
Jerusalem in the framework of a peace agreement increased from 40 percent in
2002 to 43 percent in 2003.

Also significant is the heightened sense of security in 2003, far surpassing
the low points recorded in the 2002 survey. For example: in 2003, 34% of
respondents thought the chances were high or very high that war would break
out in the next 3 years. This represents more than a 50% reduction from the
79% of 2002. 43% in 2003 predicted that peace would be strengthened between
Israel and its neighbors in the next 3 years, a dramatic increase of more
than 100% from the 21% of 2002.

In 2003, 38% stated that the Israel Defense Forces had become stronger or
much stronger in the last five years, 25% thought the army had essentially
maintained its level of strength, and 37% said that the IDF had gotten
weaker or much weaker. Comparable figures for 2002 were 11% stronger, 34%
the same, and 55% weaker.

Against the backdrop of the recent decision to dismantle illegal outposts,
it is interesting to note that 73% of the respondents answered that a
soldier may not refuse an order to evacuate settlers, and 27% said that such
an order could be disobeyed. To the question whether a soldier might refuse
to serve in the territories, 75% answered that a soldier cannot legitimately
refuse, and 25% affirmed the soldier's right to refuse the order. Two thirds
of the sample answered that a soldier must obey orders in both situations.
Another 20% said that they supported the right of the soldier not to obey
the command in either of the situations.

A slight majority - 52% - thought that the end of the conflict would not be
reached through the intervention of a third party and that the parties
themselves must work out the details. 68% of the respondents opposed the
idea of the United States imposing a solution on the parties (80% in 2002).
This might be the reason why only 40% of Israeli Jews felt that the roadmap
would end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Notwithstanding these positions,
two-thirds thought that American security guarantees could be relied upon.

The reasons for the changes in attitude of Israeli Jews to more optimistic
positions and their greater willingness to compromise over points of
contention are to be sought in the end of the war in Iraq and the apparent
winding down of the present Intifada.

The survey was directed by Professor Asher Arian, Director of the Project on
Public Opinion and National Security at the Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies at Tel Aviv University.

The survey was carried out between April 27 and May 23, 2003, and has a 3.1%
margin of error. Fieldwork was done by the B. I. and Lucille Cohen Institute
of Public Opinion Research at TelAviv

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