IMRA'S WEEKLY COMMENTARY ON ISRAEL NATIONAL RADIO - 3 July 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 3 July 2003

(Broadcast in English on Thursday nights at 10:00 PM on 98.7 FM and on 1539
AM throughout Israel - recording available on
http://www.IsraelNationalNews.com and www.IsraelNationalRadio.com)

I fear that the situation is rapidly getting out of control.

Consider the following:

#1 Assault weapons to stay?

There are many tens of thousands of illegal assault rifles in the Gaza
Strip. Nothing would be easier for independent observations than piles of
the assault rifles being carted off by American observers for destruction.

But Ha'aretz correspondent Amir Oren reports today that " Israel will not
insist on collecting all the weapons in the hands of the militias. . .
Personal weapons. . .may remain in the hands of the militiamen as long as
they are stored and not publicly displayed."

Assault rifles aren't toys.

"With a few hundred machine guns and mortars, a small army can take over an
entire country, killing and wounding hundreds of thousands"
Jeffrey Boutwell and Michael T. Klare
"A Scourge of Small Arms" Scientific American - June 2000

That's "a few hundred machine guns". Not "a few thousand" or "tens of
thousands".

#2 Dichter goes public

This Tuesday's hourly news broadcasts juxtaposed two headlines:

Headline No.1: ISS (Shabak) head Avi Dichter said Israel must not transfer
security authority to the PA in cities in the West Bank until the
Palestinians have satisfactorily demonstrated that they have confiscated
weapons and taken other measures to destroy the terror infrastructure within
the Gaza Strip where they have just been transferred security authority.
Dichter said he was certain that this was the Government's policy.

Headline No.2: Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz said Israel would hand over
security authority to the Palestinians on Wednesday in the West Bank city of
Bethlehem.

That's right, the very same time that the minister of defense was announcing
a withdrawal from a West Bank city, the head of the Shabak was saying he was
certain the Government wasn't going to do such a thing.

#3 Mofaz drops his standard

Defense Minister Mofaz also made the incredible statement on Tuesday that
Israel would reverse the new security arrangements if the security situation
does not improve as compared to the pre-arrangement period.

Considering thre record breaking nuumber of Israelis who were murdered each
week in the "pre-arrangement period" it is not clear how many Israelis the
Palestinians can murder each week under the arrangment with it still being
considered an "improvement" by DM Mofaz

#4 Sharon uses device to avoid oversight

When Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's cabinet made a decision relating to the
Roadmap, the decision included a series of conditions. Conditions that
Sharon himself said were "red lines". Among these "red lines":

"2. Full performance will be a condition for progress between phases and for
progress within phases. The first condition for progress will be the
complete cessation of terror, violence and incitement."

Take note: "a condition for progress between phases and for progress within
phases". That's "within phases".

How does Sharon get around this?

The terrorists aren't being released within the framework of the Roadmap -
it is an independent action by Israel.

The transfer of funds to the PA isn't within the framework of the Roadmap -
it is an independent action by Israel.

The reduction of security measures isn't within the framework of the
Roadmap - it is an independent action by Israel.

And since these are all independent of the Roadmap, they are not subject to
the restrictions and limitations that the cabinet placed on the
implementation of the Roadmap.

#5 Sharon sets standards to avoid oversight

Which terrorists will Sharon release? The Prime Minister's Office says that
it will be up to the ISS. And the ISS apparently will decide on the morally
bereft basis of expectations regarding how the terrorist will act in the
future rather than what the terrorist did in the past.

While the past actions of a terrorist are a matter of public record and can
be readily categorized, expectations are a matter of conjecture. Conjecture
that can be heavily influenced by pressure to release particular terrorists
regardless of the consequences.

This approach strips third parties, be they elected officials or the general
public, of the ability to effectively monitor the release process.

#6 Where is the oversight?

Prime Minister Sharon tried to silence Minister Binyamin Elon at the cabinet
meeting this week when he raised concern about decisions Sharon was making.
Mr. Sharon told Elon that he and the other ministers should limit their
concerns to their own ministries.

What does the law say?

Basic Law: The Government (2001)
...
4. The Government is collectively responsible to the Knesset; each Minister
is responsible to the Prime Minister for the field of responsibility with
which the Minister has been charged.

Minister Elon is responsible to Sharon for tourism, but as a member of the
Government, Elon is collectively responsible for the actions of the
Government.

And as people who hold collective responsibility for the actions of the
government the ministers have the obligation - not option - obligation - to
insure that the government adopts and executes proper policies. At the end
of the day, each and every minister shares collective responsibility for
this madness if it continues.

By the same token, the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee has the
authority to insist that the prime minister, defense minister and other
officials submit themselves to their oversight.

Now more than possibly any time in the history of the Jewish State, it is
critical that effective oversight gets the Government back on track.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
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