PSR Polls among Palestinian Refugees
[IMRA: It would be interesting if the survey had added a question as to if
the respondents would consider the implementation of the hypothetical
arrangements they have raised to constitute a final end to the conflict or
if this is seen more as a tactical move within the context of "stages" (the
approach to accept what can be achieved now with an eye towards replacing
Israel in the future).]
18 July 2003
Press Release
RESULTS OF PSR REFUGEES' POLLS IN THE WEST BANK/GAZA STRIP, JORDAN AND
LEBANON
ON REFUGEES' PREFERENCES AND BEHAVIOR IN A PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI PERMANENT
REFUGEE AGREEMENT
January-June 2003
I. Introduction:
PSR conducted three major surveys among Palestinian refugees in three areas:
the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (WBGS), Jordan and Lebanon. Based on
several previous surveys showing that the overwhelming majority of the
refugees (more than 95%) insist on maintaining the "right of return" as a
sacred right that can never be given up, PSR surveys sought to find out how
refugees would behave once they have obtained that right and how they would
react under various likely conditions and circumstances of the permanent
settlement. The three surveys have been funded by the Japanese government
(through the United Nations Development Program), the (German) Konrad
Adenauer Foundation, and the (Canadian) International Development Research
Center. One survey among non-refugees in the WBGS has also been conducted to
examine the views of non-refugees on some of the same issues raised in the
refugees' surveys. The WBGS refugee survey was conducted by PSR in January
2003, and the WBGS non-refugee survey in April 2003.The Jordan survey was
conducted in May 2003 by the Center for Strategic Studies at Jordan
University with full PSR supervision. The Lebanon survey was conducted in
June 2003 by Statistics Lebanon Company.
Sample size for the three refugees' surveys was 4506 distributed at the
three areas almost equally, averaging 1500 interviews with refugee families
in each area. A random sample was selected taking into consideration refugee
distribution (inside-outside refugee camps) in each area. Rejection rate was
less than 1% and the margin of error was 3%.
For further information on the surveys and the findings, contact Dr. Khalil
Shikaki or Ayoub Mustafa at PSR at 972 2 296 4933 or fax 0972 2 296 4934, or
by email: pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
(2) Objectives of the surveys:
The surveys had two main objectives:
To help the process of peace negotiations, the surveys sought to find out
refugees' preferences in the permanent agreement with Israel. For this
purpose, the refugees were asked about their attitude toward various
political solutions and about their likely behavior under a specific
solution that was discussed at the Taba Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in
January 2001. To insure maximum benefits, the questionnaire was prepared in
consultation with official Palestinian institutions in charge of
negotiations and refugee affairs in the PLO and the Palestinian Authority.
To help the planning and absorption process by making estimates of the
number and socio-economic and demographic profile of refugees who may prefer
to live in the Palestinian state. To insure maximum benefits, the
questionnaire was prepared in consultation with official Palestinian
institutions responsible for planning in the Palestinian Authority.
PSR consulted also with researchers and NGOs dealing with refugee issues to
benefit from their experience and insights. While we are grateful for the
advice we have received, PSR is responsible for all aspects of this work:
the preparation of questions, the selection of the sample, the conduct of
the fieldwork, and the analysis of the results.
(3) Main Findings
Three kinds of data have been collected: information about the refugees and
their socio-economic conditions in the three areas examined, views and
attitudes of refugees regarding peace settlement issues, and expected
refugees' behavior under a specific peace solution and under various
conditions and circumstances of a refugee settlement.
1. Selected Information on refugees
The surveys show that the overwhelming majority of the refugees are
registered with UNRWA, the UN agency that cares for the Palestinian
refugees. The WBGS came first with 98% registration followed by Lebanon
(94%) and Jordan (91%).
Average family size in the WBGS sample was 7.55 (individuals per family),
followed by Jordan with 6.16, and Lebanon with 4.59. With regard to age
groups, WBGS had the largest percentage of young people, less than 18 years
old, with 48% followed by Jordan with 37% and Lebanon with 35%. Lebanon had
the highest percentage for the old, more than 52 years old, with 17%,
followed by Jordan with 12% and WBGS with 9%.
With regard to education, Lebanon had the lowest illiteracy rate. Lebanon
also had the highest rate of those with elementary and preparatory education
(62%). Jordan had the highest rate secondary education (16%). WBGS had the
highest illiteracy rate with 35% followed by Jordan (24%) and Lebanon (11%).
With regard to income, Jordan had the highest percentage of income in the
middle brackets (45%) followed by Lebanon (42%) and the WBGS (27%). For
those with low income level, Lebanon came first (36%) followed by WBGS (32%)
and Jordan (17%). The WBGS had the largest percentage of those in the high
income brackets (41%) followed by Jordan (38%) and Lebanon (22%). Of course
these income levels are relative and reflect arbitrary distribution selected
for analytical purposes only.
Refugees in Lebanon had the largest percentage of relatives living in Israel
(39%) followed by Jordan's (24%) and Palestine (21%). With regard to
relatives who immigrated to foreign countries, Lebanon came on top here as
well with 64% followed by Jordan and WBGS (24% each). As for those with
relatives in the WBGS, Jordan came first (56%) followed by Lebanon (21%).
97% of those interviewed in Jordan and 15% of those interviewed in the WBGS
carries the Jordanian passport. In Lebanon, 74% had Lebanese travel
documents for Palestinian refugees, and in Palestine 42% carried Palestinian
passports while 6% carried Egyptian travel documents or passports.
63% of refugees in Lebanon own a house in the refugee camps while those
owning land in Lebanon did not exceed 1%. In Jordan, 48% own a house outside
the camps and 11% own land in the country. In the WBGS, 47% own a house
inside the camps and 48% own a house outside the camps while 17% own land.
The highest percentage of private car ownership was found in Lebanon (31%)
followed by Jordan (25%) and WBGS (15%).
2. Selected Views
A proposed solution of the refugee issue was presented to respondents who
were then asked how they would view it and how they would behave if given
the right to choose among the options made available by the solution. The
following is the full text of the solution presented:
"We will now read you a proposed solution to the refugee problem that was
published in Palestinian papers in the light of the Taba negotiations in
January 2000. We will then ask you few questions:
"The establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
and Israeli recognition of UN resolution 194 or the right of return. But the
two sides would agree on the return of a small number of refugees to Israel
in accordance with a timetable that extends for several years. Each refugee
family will be able to choose one of the following options:
1. Return to Israel in accordance with an annual quota and become an Israeli
citizen
2. Stay in the Palestinian state that will be established in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip and receive a fair compensation for the property taken over
by Israel and for other losses and suffering
3. Receive Palestinian citizenship and return to designated areas inside
Israel that would be swapped later on with Palestinian areas as part of a
territorial exchange and receive compensation
4. Receive fair compensation for the property, losses, and suffering and
stay in the host country receiving its citizenship or Palestinian
citizenship
5. Receive fair compensation for the property, losses, and suffering and
immigrate to a European country or the US, Australia, or Canada and obtain
citizenship of that country or Palestinian citizenship.
A majority of refugees in the three areas expressed the belief that Israel
would reject the proposed solution to the refugee problem. But a majority of
55% in Jordan, 63% in Palestine, and 67% in Lebanon believed the PLO would
accept the solution. However, the respondents were split in their evaluation
of the likely response of the majority of the refugees with WBGS refugees
split right in the middle, Jordan's refugees tilting toward acceptance, and
Lebanon's toward rejection. When asked how they themselves feel about the
proposal, the respondents in Palestine and Lebanon were divided into two
equal groups, rejecting or accepting it, while in Jordan it was accepted by
50% and rejected by 37% with the rest expressing no opinion. When asked how
they would react to a Palestinian-Israeli agreement embracing the proposal,
the overwhelming majority tended to approve such agreement even if most felt
they would do so for the lack of better alternative. A small percentage
(15%, 9%, and 8% in WBGS, Lebanon, and Jordan respectively) said that it
would not only oppose such solution but would also resist it.
While a majority of Lebanon's refugees believe that the WBGS is unable to
absorb refugees from other countries, the percentage drops to 27% in the
WBGS and 26% in Lebanon.
When asked if they would like to play a role in building the Palestinian
state, the percentage of those wishing to do so was very high among refugees
in WBGS (84%) going down to 61% in Lebanon and 52% in Jordan.
While a two-third majority of refugees in WBGS supported the reference in
the roadmap to "an agreed, fair, and realistic" solution to the refugee
problem, the level of support dropped to 46% among refugees in Jordan and
45% in Lebanon.
A second possible political settlement was proposed to respondents. In this
settlement, the issue of refugees would remain unresolved and postponed
while all other issues would be permanently settled. A majority of refugees
in WBGS supported such settlement, but the majority of refugees in Lebanon
and Jordan did not support it. However, the level of support for this
"permanent-minus" settlement increased when refugees where told that
refugees would be provided housing projects while waiting for a resolution
of their problem. When asked whether they would like to move to the
Palestinian state under such settlement and wait there for a permanent
resolution of the refugee issue, two-thirds of refugees in Lebanon and
Jordan preferred to stay in Lebanon. But 25% of Jordan's refugees and 31% of
Lebanon's refugees expressed willingness to move temporarily to the
Palestinian state and wait there for a solution.
Refugees were asked about the side they would choose to represent them in
negotiations over the refugee problem. The overwhelming majority of refugees
in Lebanon and WBGS chose the PLO (86% and 73% in Lebanon and WBGS
respectively). But in Jordan, only 40% chose the PLO while 28% selected the
government of Jordan and 16% did not expressed an opinion. However, the
confidence in the PLO drops when it comes to the management of the
compensation process. The largest percentage (42%) in WBGS favored a joint
team from the PLO, the UN, and representatives of refugees. But in Lebanon,
the largest percentage (45%) favored the PLO, and in Jordan, the joint team
received 28%, the PLO 22%, and the Jordanian government 23%. It should be
mentioned that the questions regarding compensation were asked only to those
whose choice for the exercise of the right of return involved compensation.
No significant differences were found between the attitudes of refugees and
non-refugees in WBGS.
3. Expected Behavior:
After reading the proposed solution to the refugee problem (full text
above), respondents were asked to choose the option or options they
preferred or reject all options and describe, in their own words, what would
constitute an acceptable solution.
The following represents the answers of the refugees in the three areas:
Refugees' First Choice (%)
WBGS= West Bank/Gaza Strip, Total = (% of total population in the three
areas of WB/GS, Jordan, Lebanon)
1. Return to Israel and become (or not become) an Israeli citizen
WB/GS 12% Jordan 5% Lebanon 23% Lebanon 10%
2. Stay in the Palestinian state that will be established in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip and receive a fair compensation for the property taken over
by Israel and for other losses and suffering
WB/GS 38 Jordan 27 Lebanon 19 Lebanon 31
3. Receive Palestinian citizenship and return to designated areas inside
Israel that would be swapped later on with Palestinian areas as part of a
territorial exchange and receive any deserved compensation
WB/GS 37Jordan10 Lebanon 21 Lebanon 23
4. Receive fair compensation for the property, losses, and suffering and
stay in host country receiving its citizenship or Palestinian citizenship
WB/GS 0 Jordan 33 Lebanon 11 Lebanon 17
5. Receive fair compensation for the property, losses, and suffering and
immigrate to a European country or the US, Australia, or Canada and obtain
citizenship of that country or Palestinian citizenship
WB/GS 1 Jordan 2 Lebanon 9 Lebanon 2
6. Refuse all options
WB/GS 9 Jordan16 Lebanon 17 Lebanon 13
7. No opinion
WB/GS 2 Jordan 8 Lebanon 0 Lebanon 5
Based on the percentages listed above, the number of refugees wishing to
move from Lebanon and Jordan to the Palestinian state in an exercise of the
right of return would be 784, 049. The number of those wishing to exercise
the same right of by returning to Israel from the three areas under
examination would be 373,673. The numbers in these two categories of the
exercise of return would vary however depending on several considerations
related to the conditions and circumstances of return and residency. For
example, the surveys found that 45% of Lebanon's refugees, 52% of Jordan's,
and 47% of WBGS would change their choice and exercise the right of return
in the swapped areas of the Palestinian state if their homes and villages
were demolished. The overwhelming majority of the refugees wishing to
exercise the right of return in Israel refuse to become Israeli citizenship
and prefer to stay refugees or select other options if carrying Israeli
citizenship is mandatory.
Those who opted for an option entailing compensation were asked to make
their own estimates of what they thought would be paid to each refugee
family and what they thought would be a fair compensation. The estimates for
a fair compensation were much higher than the estimates of what would
actually be paid. For example, 66% in WBGS believed that what would be paid
would be $ 100,000 or less, while 65% believed that a fair compensation
should be between $100,000 and $ 500,000.
The surveys also showed that more than one third of refugees in Lebanon and
Jordan (from among those who would accept to have their compensation in the
form of land or houses) would accept land and houses located in evacuated
settlements. But
this percentage rises to 48% among the refugees in WBGS.
With regard to immigration to third countries, an option selected by a small
minority, the most popular third country in Lebanon was a European one while
the US was the most popular among refugees in Jordan and the least popular
in WBGS.
(4) Driving forces
When formulating the questions for the surveys, we sought to understand the
motivation and driving forces behind the attitudes and behavior of the
refugees. PSR researchers had four hypotheses regarding these drivers:
Hypothesis one: in selecting places of residence and absorption, in the
exercise of the right of return, refugees would be motivated by the degree
of their attachment to, and perception of, Palestinian national identity.
Hypothesis two: refugees in host countries in particular will also be
motivated by their perception of the nature of the relationship they have
with those countries and the extent of the civil and political equality they
enjoy in them.
Hypothesis three: refugees will also be motivated by family considerations;
i.e., depending on where relative lived: in Israel, the Palestinian state,
or third counties.
Hypothesis four: selection of choices would also be dependent on
socio-economic considerations in their current place of residence (what
area, inside or outside refugee camps, etc.) and on the extent of refugee
ownership in those areas of residence.
Findings clearly show the significance of national identity leading the
majority to choose to exercise the right of return in the Palestinian state.
The findings also show that the perception of relative equality enjoyed by
refugees in Jordan (compared to those in Lebanon) increased the percentage
of those selecting Jordan as the place where they would permanently reside
while only a small minority opted to stay in Lebanon. In Lebanon, in
particular, the results showed the significance of family links leading to
the highest percentages of demand on immigration to third countries as well
as the demand to live in Israel as these are the areas in which Lebanon's
refugees have relatives more than other refugee groups in Jordan and WBGS.
Finally, the findings show that the percentage of those who opted to stay in
host countries increases among refugees living outside refugee camps and
that those wishing to go the Palestinian state increases among those with
lower and middle levels of income compared to those who a higher level of
income. Moreover, those who own homes and land in their place of residence
tend to want to stay in that place.
END of press release
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