PSR Survey Of Refugees Shows No Hope For Coexistence

Aaron Lerner Date: 24 July 2003

"Question 9: Are there conditions under which you could accept coexistence
with Israeli Jews in peace and security?

Palestinian refugees in West Bank and Gaza:
Yes 20.3% No 79.1% Don't know 0.7%

Palestinian refugees in Jordan:
Yes 9.7% No 85.5% Don't know 4.7%

Palestinian refugees in Lebanon:
Yes 18.7% No 77.8% Don't know 3.5% "

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) survey of
Palestinian refugees conducted by PSR in January 2003 in the West Bank and
Gaza Strip, by the Center for Strategic Studies at Jordan in May 2003, by
Statistics Lebanon Company in June 2003. Arabic provided to IMRA by PSR and
translated for IMRA by MEMRI.

While selected published results of these PSR polls have received
considerable attention over the past weeks to support the assertion that the
right of return of Palestinian refugees is not a "deal breaker" and thus
true peace between Israel and the Palestinians is within grasp, Question 9,
that was not mentioned in the press releases, tells a very different story.

It should be noted that Question 9, that shows that the overwhelming
majority of Palestinian refugees do not believe that there are conditions
under which they could accept coexistence with Israeli Jews in peace and
security was asked after the pollsters asked the respondents about a variety
of peace arrangements. Even after being reminded of the various proposals
being promoted by various groups, the refugees didn't see any possible deal
that they could accept.

The source of the confusion over the significance of the other PSR results
is that the pollsters asked refugees what option they would chose under
various scenarios - not if they would consider these scenarios to constitute
an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Taken in isolation, the fact that
refugees chose between options in scenarios might be confused for acceptance
of the scenarios as a "final solution".

A more appropriate way to view the survey results is within the context of
the PLO program for the replacement for Israel in "stages". Under the
program of stages, it is acceptable to temporarily agree to the
establishment of a Palestinian state that does not replace Israel when the
option of replacing Israel is not yet in the cards. Emphasis on "not yet",
since the ultimate goal remains the replacement of Israel.

When the much touted PSR results are viewed as the choices Palestinian
refugees would make during a temporary interim stage rather than as a
permanent choice, the significance of the findings and their public policy
ramifications are magnitudes smaller than press reports and commentators
made them out to be.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
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