Israel Accepts "Growing Cocked Gun Hudna" - Drops Requiring Dismantling
Terror Infrastructure
Dr. Aaron Lerner 16 August 2003

["As the Palestinians act to extensively thwart and prevent terror attacks
terror attacks, the IDF will be able alleviate the security measures, which
will improve the quality of life for Palestinian residents. IDF
Announcement 15 August - hours before DM Mofaz agreed to unilaterall hand
over 2 more cities]

Israel Television and Radio report that Defense Minister Mofaz has agreed to
drop requiring the dismantling of the growing terror infrastructure in the
Gaza Strip before transferring security responsibility to the PA in
Palestinian cities in the West Bank.

The first cities to be handed over will be Jericho, where a large Qassam
missile production project was recently thwarted by Israel and Qalqilyah,
where Qassam missiles, if produced or brought into the area, would
immediately put Kfar Sava, Raanana and Hod Hasharon within range. If the
technology for the more advanced Qassam missiles under development and
production in the Gaza Strip today is transferred to Qalqilyah for
production by subcontractors in local metal factories Petach Tikvah,
Herzliya and other cities will add to the target list.

While Shabbak head Avi Dichter declared on 1 July that Israel must not
transfer security authority to the PA in cities in the West Bank until the
Palestinians have satisfactorily demonstrated that they have confiscated
weapons and taken other measures to destroy the terror infrastructure within
the Gaza Strip where they have just been transferred security authority the
only apparent requirement now is the absence of dramatic terrorist attacks
before the withdrawal.

There have been terrorist shooting attacks this evening in both the West
Bank and Gaza Strip but they do not qualify as "dramatic" and thus are not
expected to interfere with the handovers.

Ramallah and Tul Karm are expected to be handed over in 10 days. In this
instance Israel is reportedly asking that PA Minister Dahlan present a
security plan before these handovers but not the implementation of a plan.
There have been some vague references to expecting action against the
smuggling tunnels from Egypt and the Qassam missiles but the understanding
appears to be vague enough that the Palestinian refusal to dismantle the
growing terror infrastructure will not interfere with the Israeli
withdrawals.

Advanced Qassam's in Ramallah would put most of Jerusalem within range.

Israel has also dropped requiring action against leading terrorists known to
be hiding now in these cities. Instead Israel will rely on Palestinian
promises that the terrorists will behave themselves.

Israel is also expected to drop various security measures to sweeten the
deal.

This represents a major twin victory for the Palestinians: effectively
accepting their position that there be no linkage between Palestinian
compliance and "progress" down the Roadmap (including the creation of a
sovereign Palestinian state in a few months) and embracing the principle of
Palestinian "hudna" - the terror infrastructure can continue to grow as
long as the growing number of "guns" remain (mostly) cocked.

Israeli commentators explained today that Israel is taking these steps to
"save the hudna" and to insure that if it falls apart the Palestinians will
be blamed.

In truth, the move reflects more the infamous Israeli 12 hour planning
horizon. Whatever Israeli concessions and gestures - no matter how generous
and dangerous - will be presented by the Palestinians as meager so that the
breakdown in the "hudna" can always be blamed on Israel.