Background: Israel May Face US Pressure Regardless of Next PA Leader

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 6 September 2003

While some in Israel may think that the resignation of PA PM Abu Mazen has
derailed President Bush's road map juggernaut there is every reason to
believe that the Palestinians may succeed in once again playing their
"weakness" to an advantage.

During the course of Abu Mazen's short term, Washington's expectations
plummeted from requiring the Palestinians to actually act against the terror
infrastructure to hopes that the level of terror activity would be low
enough that the "process" could continue - with a sovereign Palestinian
state formed within a few months as per the road map.

With Abu Mazen's resignation, whoever or whatever Palestinian government
that follows may enjoy even lower expectations from Mr. Bush's team, the
argument being that requiring any substantive Palestinian compliance will
doom the new government to the same fate as Abu Mazen's.

If this is the case, the Bush Administration may very well press Israel even
harder to drop its insistence on Palestinian compliance and continue with
the road map come what may.

Ironically, with Bush's ratings dropping in America, one would expect his
re-election team to be polling to see how his complacence regarding
Palestinian terror is impacting on his support. It would appear that his
team's blind devotion to the road map is so powerful that their drive to
create a sovereign Palestinian state may even transcend the goal of getting
their boss reelected.

Already today fear of American reactions has seriously undermined Israel's
decision making process - as illustrated by the ineffectual "compromise
bombing" Israel carried out today against top Hamas leaders Yassin, Deff and
others in which a smaller than required charge was used. This is the second
time that Deff escaped an Israeli attack alive because the explosive charge
was too small due to PR considerations.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il