IMRA'S COMMENTARY: And what after the retreat?

Aaron Lerner Date: 15 April 2004

What would happen after an Israeli retreat?

Would Israel enjoy decades of quiet?

Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Sharon's point man in promoting the
retreat, assures us that the terror will continue.

Would Israel have carte blanche to defend itself?

Of course not. President Bush isn't committing to back any and every Israeli
operation - just those that America deems appropriate. And that's a value
judgment that can weigh in many factors - including many having nothing to
do with either Israel or the operation itself. Israel also commits itself to
make efforts to reduce security measures affecting the Palestinian
population. These efforts will certainly be a focus of American interest -
and in turn pressure.

Can Israel be certain that the evacuated Gaza Strip remains within Israel's
"envelope of control" as long as Israel deems necessary?

Hardly. PM Sharon's plan indicates Israel would like it to be that way, but
President Bush's letter in response is pure Roadmap. And the Roadmap in the
absence of Israel's 14 notes means that the Quartet decides if a Palestinian
state should be formed in evacuated areas based on what it considers the
relative performance of the Palestinians as compared to the Israeli
performance. The Palestinians are not actually required to successfully
complete any security-related operations. The state is formed without
requiring either Israeli consent or Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Nowhere in the Bush statement and letter is the Phase II Palestinian state
explicitly linked to the successful completion of security operations.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Israel pulled out of Gaza, retreated from part of the West Bank.

A few photo ops - some declarations and a pile of weapons and the pressure
Sharon thought he avoided comes back full force.

"When will Israel finally move forward?"

"If Israel can uproot the settlers from X why not from Y?"

President Bush didn't say the settlement blocs could stay - he just shared
his assessment that regardless of their legal status, they are a substantial
bargaining chip.

Mr. Bush may consider it "realistic", for example, for the existence of the
major Israeli population centers to be such a significant negotiating chip
that Israel can trade them for the French Hill and Ramat Eshkol
neighborhoods in Jerusalem - occupied territory in American eyes.

And what of the strategic Jordan Valley?

Forgotten in the rush.

At the end of the day: A sovereign Phase II Palestinian state in the Gaza
Strip engaged in a war of attrition carried out by terrorists - many of whom
draw salaries from their Palestinian security force day jobs. Israel under
pressure to "be forthcoming" in negotiations to strengthen the Palestinian
leadership so that they can control the terrorists. Pressure to withdraw
from the West Bank and "get it over with already".

And a nation no longer certain if there are any true red lines.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il