A COMPREHENSIVE POLL ON DISENGAGEMENT
Conducted by GEOCARTOGRPHY GROUP - Information, Strategy &Solutions
Sponsored by THE ISRAEL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY POLLS
Last week of June 2004 (503 sample of the Jewish population, excluding
settlers)
[Summary provided by Yoram Ettinger]

GENERAL:

1. The poll was conducted while Israel's government and the entire media
(TV, radio and newspapers) were engaged in an intensive campaign for
Disengagement, while the opponents were dormant (following their victory in
the Likud Referendum).

2. The results of the poll are dramatically more politically-INcorrect than
those, which preceded the Likud Referendum, and at variance with other
current polls, which are not as comprehensive. Precedents - in Israel -
indicate that the majority of the "undecided" tend to support the
politically-INcorrect option, but are reluctant to admit it to pollsters.

3. To realize the potential impact of the coming educational campaign,
(which made the difference during the Likud Referendum), one should note
that the May 2, 2004 Likud Referendum was announced when the proponents held
a 30% edge. The one month long educational campaign, which followed,
produced a 50% net shift (hence, a 20% edge) for the opponents.

POLL RESULTS:

1. 51%:32% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would
escalate/diminish Palestinian motivation to fight Israel. 8% assume that it
would have no effect and 9% have no opinion. One may conclude that 59%
(51%+8%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and
therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement
(exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).

2. 55%:25% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities
would magnify/diminish the threat of missiles to Ashqelon, Ashdod and the
Negev. 9% assume that it would have no effect and 11% have no opinion. One
may conclude that 64% (55%+9%) do not believe that disengagement would
improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of
the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion
dollar cost).

3. 61%:15% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would
accelerate/slow down the flow of military supplies to Gaza. 10% assume that
it would have no effect and 14% have no opinion. One may conclude that 71%
(61%+10%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and
therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement
(exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).

4. 37%:37% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would
increase/decrease terrorism; 13% assume that it would have no effect and 13%
have no opinion. One may conclude that 50% (37%+13%) do not believe that
disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant
to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel
strife, multi-billion dollar cost).

5. 36%:35% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would
advance/regress peace with the Palestinians. 18% assume that it would have
no effect and 11% have no opinion. One may conclude that 54% (36%+18%) do
not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore
would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated
terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).

6. 71%:15% believe that the introduction of Egyptian military personnel into
Gaza would restrain/free Israel's counter-terrorism effort. 7% assume that
it would have no effect and 6% have no opinion. One may conclude that 78%
(71%+7%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and
therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement
(exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).

7. 72%:16% believe that the introduction of Egyptian military personnel into
Gaza would require/preclude Israel's counter-terrorism operations in Gaza.
12% have no opinion.

8. 48%:39% believe that the introduction of Egyptian military personnel into
Gaza would undermine/enhance Israel's security. 13% have no opinion.

9. 49%:44% support the evacuation of Jewish communities from Gaza and
northern Samaria. 7% have no opinion. Factoring the tendency by the
"undecided" to oppose the politically-correct position, one assumes a tie
(while the government and the media are engaged in an aggressive campaign on
behalf of disengagement, and the politically-INcorrect is still dormant).