The Results of a Special Poll on the Elections and the Political Situation
after Arafat November 19 - 20, 2004
An-Najah National University
Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies
Tel: (972)(9) 2381113/7, 2386584
Fax: (972)(9) 2387982
Nablus-Palestine: P.O.Box 7, 707
Email: Polls@najah.edu email@example.com
Following are the results of the special poll, which was conducted by the
Center of Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at Najah National University
during the period from November 19-20, 2004. An-Najah National University
took full sponsorship of this Poll.
The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 years and above and
who have the right to vote. The sample forms one per thousand from among the
total number of Palestinian people of this age group. The enclosed
questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500
persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of
error is about +/-3%. Still 2.2% of the members of the sample refused to
answer the questionnaire
General Results of the Poll
Which type of elections do you support?
Presidential and legislative simultaneously 59.3
Presidential elections with an assigned date for legislative elections 21.1
No opinion; I do not know 5.1
If presidential elections only are to be held, will you participate in such
Yes, I will 67.0 No, I will not 20.3 I will decide then11.8
No opinion; I do not know 1.0
If some political organizations decide not to participate in the
presidential elections, will you abide by their decision?
Yes, I will 30.5 No, I will not 46.7 I will decide then 21.0
No opinion; I do not know 1.8
Do you see it necessary for all political factions to participate in
elections for the president only?
Yes 75.4 No 21.8 No opinion; I do not know 2.8
Do you see it necessary that a legislative election be held simultaneously
with a presidential election?
Yes 75.6 No 21.0 No opinion; I do not know 3.4
In general, do you see that legislative elections--------------------?
be held immediately after the presidential elections 30.3
be held simultaneously with the presidential elections 54.4
are not necessary at the present time11.5
no opinion; I do not know 3.8
In general, do you trust the present legislative council members?
Yes 13.7 Some of them 45.1 None of them 46.6
No opinion; I do not know 4.6
Do you think that the coming elections, whether they are presidential or
legislative, will be honest and fair?
Yes 47.9 No 34.4 No opinion; I do not know 17.6
Now that Arafat is dead, do you support or appose the formation of a united
national government after conducting presidential elections if some
Palestinian factions refuse to participate in these elections?
I support 87.2 I oppose11.0 No opinion; I do not know 1.8
If Israel does not set Marwan Al Barghouthi free, which of the following
personalities do you vote for as a president of the Palestinian Authority?
Abdul Sattar Qassim 4.3
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 24.2
Mustafa Al Barghouthi 9.8
Talal Sidder 1.7
Ahmad Qurai 4.0
I will decide then 48.2
Which of the following presidential candidates do you vote for?
An independent candidate12.9
A Fateh candidate 34.3
A Hamas candidate 11.5
A leftist candidate 4.2
I will decide then 34.5
No opinion, I do not know 2.6
If Israel prevents East Jerusalem residents from participation in the
elections, do you support or oppose conducting elections without the
participation of East Jerusalem residents?
I support 32.7 I oppose 63.2 No opinion; I do not know 4.1
Does knowing the nature of the sickness that led to the decease of President
Arafat concern you?
Yes 90.5 No 8.2 No opinion; I do not know 1.3
Do you think that there is a need to make public the medical report of
President Arafat after the French Government hands it in to his family?
Yes 93.2 No 5.4 No opinion; I do not know 1.4
Several Palestinian personalities support the conviction that Arafat died by
being poisoned, do you believe this?
Yes 80.3 No 8.9 No opinion; I do not know 10.8
Do you believe that Ahmad Qurai is fully capable of performing the duties of
a prime minister?
Yes 30.0 No 56.6 No opinion; I do not know 13.4
Do you think that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen) is capable of managing the PLO
Yes 45.1 No 41.6 No opinion; I do not know 13.3
Now that President Bush won the elections for a second term, do you think
that he is serious in his intentions to implement his vision of the creation
of a Palestinian state by the end of his term?
Yes 11.6 No 81.7 No opinion; I do not know 6.7
What do you think that the coming president of the Palestinian Authority
He will keep the same old team that worked with President Arafat 9.3
He will replace the old team with a new one. 34.1
He will keep some of the members of the old team. 44.0
Others 0.4 No opinion; I do not know 12.2
Which of the following parties and political affiliations do you support?
People's party 1.0
Democratic Front 1.6
Islamic Jihad 3.9
Popular Front 2.6
I am an independent nationalist 8.8
I am an independent Islamist 6.1
I do not support any of the above 19.8
Others, specify 1.0