Date: 11.Feb.05
Results of PSR Exit Polls
For Palestinian Presidential and Local Elections
December 2004 - January 2005
In the Presidential Elections, Mahmud Abbas won because he was perceived
as most able to improve the economy and make progress in the Peace
Process; in the local elections Hamas won because its candidates were
seen as uncorrupt
* Those polls were conducted with the support of the Japanese Government
PSR conducted three exit polls during the recent local and presidential
elections. The presidential elections' exit poll was conducted on 9
January 2005 and aimed at understanding electoral behavior of voters and
to predict the outcome of the elections. PSR published its predictions
immediately upon the closing of election centers. The size of the sample
used for prediction purposes reached 8400. The sample used for survey
research purposes reached 1545. The local elections' exit polls were
conducted on 23 December 2004 in the West Bank and on 27 January 2005 in
the Gaza Strip. Here too, we sought to understand electoral behavior and
to predict the outcome of the elections. PSR predicted the outcome of
the Gaza elections in a press statement that was issued upon the closure
of the voting stations. For prediction purposes, we interviewed 5400
voters in the West Bank and 3500 in the Gaza Strip; and for survey
research purposes we interviewed a randomly selected sample of 1297
voters in the West Bank and 940 in the Gaza Strip.
Polls' findings show that the considerations of the voters in the
presidential elections were different from those of the voters in the
local elections. In the presidential elections, voters wanted a
president who is able to improve the economic conditions and to resume
the peace process. In the local elections, the
integrity/incorruptibility of the candidates was the primary
consideration. In the presidential elections, Mahmud Abbas was the
candidate most perceived to meet voters' requirements. In the local
elections, Hamas candidates were perceived by the voters to be most
uncorrupt while Fateh's candidates (with whom voters shared similar
views on the need to return to peace negotiations) were abandoned
because most voters saw them tainted with corruption.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki at
telephone 02 296 4933 or email at: pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
Presidential Elections
The sample for the presidential exit poll was selected from 120 polling
stations randomly selected from among a total of 3040 stations provided
by the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (PCEC). The randomly
selected polling stations were distributed all over West Bank and Gaza
Strip districts in accordance with the size of voters in each district.
Polling was coordinated with PCEC in order to insure that PSR work does
not influence the election process. The following findings are based on
interviews with 1545 randomly selected voters.
Main Findings:
Abbas' Voters vs. Barghouti's
Mahmud Abbas received more support in the Gaza Strip than in the West
Bank. He also received more votes among the less educated, the
employees, those working in the public sector, married voters, older
people, the more religious, and the most supportive of the peace process
and from Fateh. Mustafa Barghouti received more support in the West Bank
than in the Gaza Strip. He also received more support among the more
educated, students, those working in the private sector, the unmarried,
the young, the less religious, the less supportive of the peace process,
and among supporters of the PFLP, Hamas, independents, and the
non-affiliated.
Most Serious Problem Facing Voters:
The first and most important problem as defined by 33% of the voters has
been poverty and unemployment, while 31% defined continuation of
occupation and its daily practices as the first and most important
problem, with spread of corruption and lack of reform selected by 26% of
the voters. Findings show that Abbas voters give the top priority to
poverty/unemployment followed by occupation while Barghouti's voters
place greater emphasis than Abbas' on corruption and lack of reform.
Most Important Factor in Selecting Candidates
When selecting their candidate, voters placed great emphasis first on
his ability to improve the economic conditions (23% of the voters
selected this factor), followed by the ability to reach a peace
agreement with Israel (19%), then the ability to enforce law and order
(16%). The ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations with Israel
came fourth with 14% of the voters selecting it as the most important
factor in their decision; the ability to maintain national unity came
next with 12%; political affiliation of the candidate was chosen by 10%;
and finally the ability to keep the intifada going was chosen by only
4%. Findings show that Abbas' voters emphasize the ability to improve
the economy and move the peace process forward while Barghouti's voters
emphasize the economy and the enforcement of law and order. Moreover,
differences emerge between the two voters regarding the importance of
political affiliation (selected by 12% of Abbas voters but only 4% by
Barghouti's), maintenance of national unity (10% vs. 15 respectively),
and keeping the intifada going (2% vs. 8% respectively).
Who Should Make Crucial Decisions?
Poll findings show that the largest percentage of voters (35%) believe
that crucial decisions should be in the hands of the president while 30%
believe that such decisions should be in the hands of the Palestinian
Legislative Council (PLC); 12% want it in the hands of the cabinet and
the prime minister; 8% prefer the PLO Executive Committee, and 7% prefer
the PLO's Palestinian National Council. In other words, the overwhelming
majority of voters (77%) wants crucial decisions in the hands of the
Palestinian Authority while only 15% want them in the hands of the PLO.
These findings apply to all voters regardless of their preferred
candidate. But differences exist between Abbas and Barghouti's voters
regarding the role of the president compared to the PLC, with 37% of
Abbas voters giving the power to make crucial decisions to the president
while only 29% of Barghouti's agreed with that. Moreover 29% of Abbas
voters, compared to 35% of Barghouti's, give this power to the PLC.
Balance of Power in the Executive Branch
When asked who should have more authority, the president or the prime
minister, almost two thirds (64%) said they prefer to give more
authority to the president, 7% preferred to give more authority to the
prime minister, and 23% prefer to give both equal powers. These findings
apply to all voters regardless of their preferred candidate. But a
larger majority of Abbas voters compared to Barghouti's (76% vs. 57%
respectively) support a strong president and a weak prime minister.
What Voters Want from the President
When asked whether they want their preferred candidate to negotiate or
not negotiate the Israeli disengagement plan, to implement or not
implement the Road Map, and to end or not end the militarization of the
intifada, the majority gave affirmative answers to the first two
questions but voters were split in half regarding the third one. More
than three quarters of the voters (76%) want their president to
negotiate the Israeli disengagement plan while 19% does not want him to
do so; 61% want him to implement the Road Map and 26% oppose that; and
46% want him to end the militarization of the intifada and 46% does not
want him to do so. Support for negotiations, for the implementation of
the Road Map and for ending the militarization of the intifada increases
among Abbas' supporters (80%, 69%, and 54% respectively) and decreases
among Barghouti's voters (69% and 44%, and 13% respectively).
Local Elections
The exit polls for the local elections were organized in the West Bank
on 23 December 2004 and in the Gaza Strip on 27 January 2005. In the
West Bank, we selected 11 out of 26 local council, focusing on those
with the largest population. We selected 27 voting centers in the 11
localities. In each center we randomly selected one voting station. For
survey purposes we randomly selected 1297 West Bank voters. In the Gaza
Strip, we selected the four largest localities out of the ten that took
part in the elections. These were: Deir Al Balah, Bani Suhaila, Beit
Hanoun, and El Maghazi. We selected all the voting centers in the four
localities and then randomly selected one station in each center. Voters
were interviewed as they left the voting hall. The total size of the
sample for survey purposes was 940 voters. The surveys were conducted in
cooperation with the Palestinian elections commission in charge of the
local elections. The following findings are based on interviews with all
the voters in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, i.e., with 2237 randomly
selected voters.
MAIN FINDINGS
Most Serious Problem Facing Voters
Poll findings show that voters in the local elections were not
significantly different from voters in the presidential elections with
regard to defining the most important problem confronting the
Palestinians today. The largest percentage (35%) went to poverty and
unemployment, followed by occupation and its daily practices (34.5%),
and finally corruption and the absence of reform (23%). Voters in the
West Bank emphasize occupation more than Gazan voters (37% vs. 31%)
while Gazan voters show more interest than those in the West Bank in the
spread of corruption (26% vs. 20%).
Most Important Factor in Selecting Candidates
Voters in the local elections consider candidates integrity and
incorruptibility as the most important factor with 71% selecting
"uncorrupt" as "very important" in their decision to selecting their
candidates. Gazan voters put more emphasis on this factor than West
Bankers (78% vs. 66%). The second most important factor is the
candidates' level of education (64%), followed by their religiosity
(51%). The percentages for these two factors increase in the Gaza Strip
reaching 70% for education and 58% for religiosity (compared to 59% for
education and 46% for religiosity in the West Bank). The fourth factor
is the position of the candidate regarding the peace process (41%)
followed by his political affiliation (26%), family relations (18%) and
the voter's personal relations with the candidate (16%).
Voting Behavior and the Political Affiliation of the Voters
While the results of the exit polls clearly indicate that a majority of
Gaza voters elected candidates affiliated with Hamas (and in the West
Bank a large part of the voters gave their votes to Hamas candidates but
more voted to Fateh candidates) voters' political sympathies were not
necessarily identical to those of the candidates they have voted for.
For example, while the exit poll showed Hamas receiving more than 60% of
the seats in the elected local councils in Gaza, only 27% of the Gazan
voters indicated that they support Hamas while 37% indicated that they
support Fateh. In the West Bank, sympathy for Fateh among voters in the
local elections reached 39% compared to 20% for Hamas. When asked to
identify names of the individuals they have voted for, voters' answers
provided relatively accurate prediction of the election outcome. But
when asked to identify the political affiliation of those same
candidates, 30% said they have voted for Fateh and only 19% said they
have voted for Hamas. In reality, Hamas received much more votes than
Fateh in the Gaza Strip (68% vs. 20%) and a little less than Fateh in
the West Bank (38% vs. 35%). In other words, the political affiliation
of the candidates was not important (and in many cases was unknown to
the voters). What was important to the voters was the personal
attributes of the candidates, as seen in the pervious section, with
special emphasis on their integrity and incorruptibility.
Role of Perception of Corruption in the Election Outcome
The findings show that voters' perception of corruption was the decisive
factor in the voting choices. This factor has been the most important as
we have shown earlier. Moreover, when asked if corruption existed in
their appointed councils, 61% responded in the affirmative (the
percentage rise to 73% in the Gaza Strip compared to 52% in the West
Bank). When asked if they believe that the councils they have just
elected will fight corruption, 93% responded in the affirmative.
Voters Want Immediate Return to Negotiations
Findings show widespread support (70%) for an immediate return to
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations among voters in the local elections in
the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while only 27% oppose it. As indicated
earlier, candidates' position on the peace process was not the most
important factor in determining voters' choices, while incorruptibility
of candidates came first, the position on the peace process came fourth.
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