Weekly Commentary: Framing Israel's Elections As Retreat Referendum Could
Defeat Sharon

Aaron Lerner Date: 1 December 2005

While Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans to carry out a major retreat in
Judea and Samaria after the elections certainly appeal to the elements in
the Left now supporting his "Kadima" Party, the Israeli public
overwhelmingly rejects his scheme.

Turn the upcoming Knesset elections into a referendum on unilateral
withdrawal instead of a personality contest and Kadima will plummet.

That's the challenge facing the national camp.

And it remains to be seen if the personalities running the campaigns of the
national camp parties will realize that the retreat issue is their only
solid hope to whittle down the support this essentially one-man party enjoys
to what should be its natural size.

Play the corruption card? Polls show the public knows full well that Sharon
is corrupt but they don't care.

Highlight commitment to social-welfare policy? Make this the defining issue
of the campaign and you are just another "me too".

Remind voters about the lefties in Kadima? It may convince some voters to
"come home" but Sharon is running as the man on the horse who does what he
wants, when he wants to, and could give a damn what anyone else says (or for
that matter what he himself may have said before), so the composition of his
party is of secondary importance.

Israel loves this ultimate man on the horse.

But Israel doesn't want the retreat Sharon is planning.

A poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israeli Jews carried out by
Smith Research & Consulting on 29-30 November and sponsored by ZOA - The
Zionist Organization of America - finds that 67% oppose carrying out a
significant unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria if it is not
possible to advance in negotiations with the Palestinians on the basis of
the Road Map after the elections because the PA fails to fight terror.

Among those who indicated that they plan to vote for Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon's Kadima Party, 54% oppose and 37% support carrying out a significant
unilateral withdrawal under those circumstances.

And the public sees retreat as a defining issue.

A follow up question found that of those who oppose unilateral withdrawal
under those circumstances, 75% responded that they would not vote for a
party that would support such a move.

Hammer the message home that a vote for Sharon is a vote for retreat and
there is nothing he can say that will convince voters that this isn't the
case.

Ironically, the very thing that appeals to Israelis: that he does what he
wants, when he wants to, and could give a damn what anyone else says or what
he himself may have said before - would then be his Achilles heel.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il