#1 The denial

Statement by PM Sharon
Communicated by the Prime Minister's Media Adviser)
Tuesday, 13 December, 2005 21:37

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon this evening (Tuesday), 13.12.05, has issued the
following statement:

"The remarks attributed to Kalman Gayer absolutely contradict my positions
and my views. If those remarks were indeed made, they were made by Kalman
Gayer alone and they are complete nonsense. United Jerusalem will remain
Israel's capital forever. The Roadmap is the diplomatic plan that will lead
Israel in the coming years and whoever says otherwise does so on his own
behalf and does so in complete contradiction of my position; this is how
these remarks must be treated."

[IMRA: 13 December 2005: After Israel Television Channel One Mabat announced
that it had a scoop that a senior advisor of Sharon reveals that Sharon
intends to ultimately divide Jerusalem in negotiations but will first
unilaterally retreat from half of the West Bank so that a Palestinian state
can be formed in the vacuum, both Sharon's office and Gayer issued denials.
But given that the Israeli public knows that Mr. Sharon strongly opposed
unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in the last election campaign it
is not clear what his office can possibly say to convince people that his
denial is genuine. It should be noted that the denial from Mr. Sharon's
office simply states that he is committed to the Road Map - without
addressing what he will do if (or rather when) there is a stalemate in the
Road Map after the elections because the Palestinians refuse to fulfill
their security obligations.]

#2 The item

Rebel With a Cause
Sharon was in command of Likud. So why did he bolt to form a new party?
By Dan Ephron
Newsweek
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10218887/site/newsweek/

Dec. 5, 2005 issue

...."analysts believe it was a combination of politics and personality-his
determination to recast Israel's conflict with the Palestinians and his
irrepressible urge to always charge ahead-that pushed Sharon to leave. "He's
prepared for a major accommodation in the [occupied] territories that Likud
could not accept," Olmert told NEWSWEEK.

What kind of accommodation remains unclear. Kalman Gayer, another political
strategist, is perhaps alone among Sharon's advisers willing to disclose
details. The picture he paints is strikingly similar to the proposal
Israel's dovish Labor government made at Camp David five years ago, an offer
Sharon denounced at the time as "dangerous." In theory, Gayer says, Sharon
would accept a Palestinian state in Gaza and 90 percent of the West Bank,
and a compromise on Jerusalem, in exchange for peace. But the Israeli leader
does not believe Palestinians will be able to deliver peace or make other
compromises-like forgoing the right of refugees to return to their old homes
in Israel-in his lifetime (Sharon is 78). In the meantime, Sharon wants to
"lay the contours of an agreement with the Palestinians," according to
Gayer, by creating a Palestinian state in half the West Bank and
implementing confidence-building measures. (Palestinians point out that this
is a variation on policies that failed throughout the 1990s.)

How might Sharon achieve this? Though he swears off further unilateral moves
like the dramatic withdrawal from Gaza, many analysts are skeptical. They
believe he wants to turn the barrier Israel is now building in the West Bank
into the country's long-term border-without reaching a deal with the
Palestinians-and to dismantle scores of Jewish settlements east of the
fence. The move would allow Israel to incorporate several large settlements
into its territory and absorb nearly 80 percent of the settlers. "No one
believes him when he says he won't make any more unilateral moves," says Dan
Ben-David, an economist at Tel Aviv University and a political commentator
in Israeli media. "There's an economic principle called 'revealed
preference' that says a person's motives are revealed by his actions. If
Sharon wasn't planning another disengagement, why would he leave Likud?"