Escalation is inevitable
By Ze'ev Schiff Haaretz 30 December
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/664152.html

The firing of the katyushas on Kiryat Shmona this week, as the launching of
Qassams on Ashkelon and the Negev continues, testifies to a failure of
Israeli deterrence. Many months ago, the brass of the Israel Defense Forces
said that the day was near when technological means would be developed that
would decrease the threat of the rockets. This promise has not been kept.

In the Gaza Strip, the security forces have also not succeeded in locating
the workshops that produce the Qassams, and most of the metal shops and
rocket developers have not been hit. Major General Gadi Eisencott was right
when he said that the war on terror is much more difficult when conducted
from a distance, without control of the ground and the population.

In the war against the rockets, a number of other assessments have been
proven wrong. The assumption that following the disengagement and the
withdrawal from the Gaza Strip the firing of Qassams would stop or be
reduced to a minimum has been proven wrong. In 2004, 309 rockets were fired
on Israel, whereas in 2005, 366 Qassams were fired. Former GOC Southern
Command Doron Almog warned that if the withdrawal included the northern Gaza
Strip, the Qassams would hit Ashkelon. Almog argues that the disengagement
was not an end to the conflict, and a 100 percent withdrawal from the Gaza
Strip should not be carried out while the fighting continues. It is best not
to set a precedent like this for the West Bank.

The government's reply was that keeping the northern Gaza Strip in Israel's
hands would be a Sheba Farm for the Palestinians, an excuse to continue the
fighting, even if it is clear that those who are launching the Qassams see
all of Israel as one big Sheba Farm. In retrospect, the creation of a
circumscribing strip in northern Gaza as a no-man's-land in effect cancels
out part of the withdrawal.

Also proven wrong is the assumption that the Palestinian Authority would
take action on the ground against the launching of the Qassams. There are
thousands of armed people in the security organizations in the Gaza Strip,
and they do not want, or are unable, to stop a few cells of the Islamic
Jihad. Egypt already has about 300 security people in the Gaza Strip, among
them more than 10 colonels. The Egyptians, too, promised to take action
against the Qassams, a promise that has not been kept.

As of now, another assumption that has been proven wrong is that pressure
from the Palestinian public would bring about an end to the firing of the
Qassams. The reason for this, apparently, is that Islamic Jihad has no
commitment to the public, while Hamas does - unlike Hamas, Islamic Jihad has
no public welfare institutions, and it does not care whether Palestinian
workers work in Israel and whether they have difficulties, as the result of
terror, at the crossing points between Gaza and the West Bank. The aid from
Iran and Syria is more important to them.

In Israel, there are those who say the pressure from the Palestinian public
has been too light. However, there are also those who are appealing to the
High Court of Justice demanding that it order the cessation of the flights
over the Gaza Strip because they cause sonic booms. The operational level
has been consulting experts on international law - to the point of
exaggeration - about what is permissible and what is prohibited in the
operational context, like the proposal to turn off the electricity in the
Gaza Strip every time the Palestinians fire on the power station in
Ashkelon.

The forecast on the matter of the Qassams is not good. Sooner or later the
Palestinians will improve their range, or will succeed in smuggling
long-range Katyushas from Sinai. At that point we will see that Ashdod, too,
is within the range of the rockets. There is also the possibility that they
will succeed in smuggling similar weapons into the West Bank territories. In
such a situation, escalation will be inevitable. The way of dealing with it
will not be another unilateral withdrawal. In the unilateral move Israel in
effect caused the elimination of the disarmament by agreement of the Gaza
Strip.