Weekly Commentary: Israeli policy driven by wishful thinking
Aaron Lerner Date: 2 March 2006
"Do you agree or disagree with the following argument: even if a threatening
sovereign Palestinian state enjoying the support of the Arab world will be
established in the evacuated areas, the IDF could always act to get quiet at
a relatively low cost:
Certainly don't agree 9% Don't agree 30% - Total don't agree 39%
Middle 5%
Agree 30% Certainly agree 11% - Total agree: 41%
Other replies 15% "
[Maagar Mohot Survey Institute telephone poll of a representative sample of
624 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) poll commissioned by the
Zionist Organization of America - ZOA. And carried out 5-6 February 2006.]
Kadima candidate Ehud Olmert is part of the 41%. And he is hardly alone in
the political world.
The opportunists who joined Kadima for a Knesset seat even though they
themselves oppose retreat are also part of the 41%
The Likud politicians gliding through the election campaign as they
gleefully plan for what they hope to be a post-Netanyahu Likud are certainly
part of the 41%.
If anything, the 41% is a serious underestimate.
One would have thought that the 1973 Yom Kippur War would have permanently
tempered the Israeli hubris from the 1967 Six Day War but it didn't.
It's true that the Yom Kippur War ended with Israel 101 kilometers from
Cairo and also with the upper hand in Syria, but in the early days of that
bloody war that caught Israel by surprise the outcome was far from clear.
So much so that for many of my generation the image of then Defense Minister
Moshe Dayan slumped in his chair in the command center clearly in shock will
remain seared into our collective memories.
Curiously enough, the war in which the Arabs had a decent chance to defeat
Israel if they had had their act together more has since then been
reinterpreted by withdrawal proponents as proof the Arab leaders must
certainly have absorbed that it is impossible to defeat Israel on the
battlefield.
Did Egypt conclude that war against Israel is hopeless or that it made sense
to be patient and first arm with the best and most advanced western weapons
American aid can buy and then wait for the appropriate opportunity?
Yes, Israel is strong. We have a great army with well trained forces and
sophisticated equipment. But that hardly makes us invincible.
A terrorist army within spitting distance of Israel's major population and
industrial centers is not a minor nuisance. It can, indeed, be parlayed
into an existential threat in coordination with the radical states.
It is inbumbent on Israel's leaders to address this challenge now, while the
costs of action are low.
The nation can ill afford the rule of leaders driven more by wishful
thinking than serious analysis.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
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