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Thursday, April 27, 2006
Weekly Commentary: No Jordan Option

Weekly Commentary: No Jordan Option

Aaron Lerner Date: 27 April 2006

Before the retreat from the Gaza Strip Ehud Olmert was proudly clueless as
to who or what would fill the void.

But today, in the aftermath of the rise of Hamas to power, the simplistic
"RFTH" (run for the hills) approach is wearing thin.

In fact, some of the people in Prime Minister Olmert's party think that the
new withdrawal plan from most of the West Bank would actually leave the IDF
in place and only bulldoze the Jewish communities on the wrong side of the
separation fence.

Some now are suggesting that the void created by an Israeli retreat be
filled by Jordan.

After all, what could be easier for Israel to do than to dump the problem of
the security control of the West Bank on "moderate" Jordan?

But is it really such a simple and robust solution?

Bringing Jordan back into the West Bank means having a sovereign entity
stretching from the border of Iraq to the backyard of Kfar Sava.

And given the virtual impossibility to predict the future viability and/or
orientation of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, putting the West Bank under
Jordanian sovereignty ultimately means that Allah-knows-what-regime would
have the sovereign right to move divisions of tanks, position heavy
artillery pieces, mobile anti-aircraft equipment etc. within earshot of my
home in Raanana and all of this without Israel being able to do much more
than go on alert.

As options go, the "Jordan option" isn't much different from "surrender and
appeasement."

These are frustrating times.

RFTH just means setting the stage for further retreats and a debilitating
ongoing war of attrition.

The "Jordan option" - if Jordan agreed - would mean a temporary respite with
a very real chance of ultimately facing an even more dangerous situation.

If it were only so simple.

But it isn't.

For better or worse, for the foreseeable future, Israel simply cannot afford
cavalier solutions.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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