[IMRA: Either Israeli millitary intelligence is doing such a fantastic job
that they are able to maintain an accurate tally of what has been smuggled
into Gaza or, alternatively, they have the disturbing hubris to present the
information that they have to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee as if it is an accurate tally of what has been smuggled into Gaza
rather than just their best guess - with a very real possibility that it
could be wrong by several magnitudes.

Yes, "the army was aware of 12 Grad-type Katyusha rockets smuggled into
Gaza" - the question is how many more are there that the army isn't aware
of?]

Top officer: Gaza stocking arms

In briefing to Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, senior officer
says some one and-a-half tons of explosives have been smuggled into Strip
since disengagement. Meanwhile, army Chief Halutz says economic pressure on
Hamas won't yield results

Ilan Marciano YNET 23 May 2005
www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3254235,00.html

Ever since the Israeli pullout from Gush Katif and Gaza last summer,
one-and-a-half tons of explosives have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip, a
senior IDF Operations Branch officer told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and
Defense Committee during a briefing Tuesday.

According to the officer, the smuggling business in Gaza was thriving,
despite the Egyptians' strenuous efforts to foil these activities and in
spite of a number of successful operations to thwart smuggling attempts on
the Philadelphi route and at the Rafah crossing.

"Gaza is arming itself," the officer stated, adding that the army was aware
of 12 Grad-type Katyusha rockets smuggled into Gaza, as well as dozens of
RPGs and other rockets.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz, who also took part in the meeting,
addressed the Palestinian issue and the Iranian nuclear threat. Halutz said
he did not believe that clashes between rivaling factions in the Palestinian
Authority - most notably between Hamas and Fatah - would lead to civil war.
No side wants to see the conflict resolved by force, he stated.

The army chief also stated that he did not think economic pressure on the
Hamas-led government would cause the Palestinian population to withdraw its
support in the movement. In fact, Halutz said, such pressure might yield the
exact opposite outcome.

Referring to Iran's nuclear program, Halutz said that if the Muslim republic
manages to obtain nuclear weapons, it would present an existential threat to
Israel. According to intelligence estimates, he said, Iran would be in
possession of nuclear weapons by 2008 to 2010.

The army chief said that despite more optimistic assessments from the
Americans, who predicted the Iranians wouldn't have developed the bomb until
2012-2015, Israel must prepare for the possibility of a more imminent
threat.

(05.23.06, 15:00)