University of Haifa Iraq Expert Baram: End of al-Qaida in Iraq

HAIFA. June 8, 2006 -"The death of Zarqawi signals the beginning of the end
of the al-Qaida organization and of Sunni rebellion in Iraq."

One of the world's leading experts on Iraq, Prof. Amatzia Baram
of the University of Haifa, made this prediction today after learning of
Zarqawi's death in an American air strike. Zarqawi was the terror
organization's number one man in Iraq and a sworn loyalist to Osama bin
Laden.

According to Baram, who has advised the White House on Iraq, the
ending of the rebellion and the terrorist organizations will still take a
number of years and there will still be heavy casualties. But the end is in
sight.

"The blow that al-Qaida took today is a heavy one, but not
mortal," Baram cautioned, explaining that Zarqawi was mainly a symbol.
"Nevertheless, we are talking about a very import symbol who had great
influence on the insurgents' morale. They received their inspiration from
him," Baram said.

"Organizationally, too, Zarqawi was the most efficient executor
of mass terror attacks, especially against the Shiites, with car bombs and
suicide bombers."

Baram added that the Jordan-born Zarqawi's elimination was also
a blow to the quiet but extensive support that the terrorist had in the
Sunni Muslim world. "I hope," the Iraqi expert said, "that this will lead
to some realism in the Muslim world about the chances of success that terror
will have as a political instrument although it is not at all sure it will."

Director of the recently inaugurated Center for Iran and Gulf
Studies at the University of Haifa, Baram expects bin Laden to use the death
of his most senior man in Iraq as a lever to carry out more terror attacks.
"Zarqawi's death hurts bin Laden, and we can soon see bin Laden describing
Zarqawi as a "Shahid," or martyr. He will try to exploit his memory to
intensify al-Qaida activity.

In Baram's opinion, bin Laden's success will be limited. "Most
actions under al-Qaida's inspiration are carried out by independent cells
that will now, in the wake of Zarqawi's death, need to think very carefully
about the chances of their success. On the one hand, his personal example
will continue to be a source of inspiration. On the other hand, his
elimination will constitute a warning sign for potential terrorists."

As for Jordan's attitude, and that of his family, toward
Zarqawi's death, the University of Haifa scholar thinks the Jordanians will
make every effort to prevent a cult from building up around the Zarqawi
image. "His family informed everyone a number of weeks ago that it was
'vomiting' him out of their system," Baram recalled.

"It is not at all certain, therefore, that a memorial tent will be put up to
mourn his memory," Baram believes. "But in the
event that one is set up, it will serve the extremists in the country."

The Israeli historian stresses that Zarqawi's death will be received
differently in Jordan. There are those who will be happy, because he had
been responsible for many murders of innocent Jordanian citizens. But there
are also those, his radical Islamic followers, who will cry for him and try
to use his memory to increase terror in Jordan, Baram said.

A. M. Goldstein
English Editor
Div. of External Relations
University of Haifa
Tel.: (972-4) 8240104