Background: Cards stacked against MIA Gilad Shalit?

Aaron Lerner Date: 25 June 2006

It would appear that, unfortunately, the cards are stacked against MIA Gilad
Shalit, the soldier captured this morning during attack on an IDF outpost
near south Gaza.

The Shalit family is neither wealthy nor politically connected and do not
appear to have hired the services of a media consultant and are relying on
the IDF to handle media for them.

As a result there is no indication that they have had any influence on the
unfolding story during the course of the day and their interaction with the
media has been limited so far to essentially a photo op and reports via the
IDF that they have full confidence that all is being done to gain their son's
release.

In the absence of professional media manipulation the story has already
started to include implied criticism - and even blame - on the Israeli
soldiers for failing to "turn the tables" on the Palestinian attackers.

Most important: Defense Minister Amir Peretz is not approaching this
challenge as he approached challenges to his authority as the head of the
Histadrut labor union

Union leader Peretz didn't offer up a seemingly endless series of idle
threats to communicate his demands: he first "communicated" by literally
closing down the country in wild cat strikes - having no qualms if that
meant destroying Israeli companies and ruining people's lives in the
process.

Thanks to his "draw blood first - then talk" approach Peretz was able to win
many victories and postpone many important initiatives to introduce
efficiency and competition to vital sectors of the Israeli economy.

If Defense Minister Peretz treated this challenge in the same spirit as
union leader Peretz there would already be scores of dead Palestinians this
evening with Peretz warning that the killing will escalate as each hour
passes without the release of Shalit.

As of this writing it appears that the opposite approach is being taken,
with the argument being repeated by many speaking to the media that such
operations cannot be carried out as they would endanger Shalit.

Thus we find Peretz not warning of the consequences of not immediately
releasing Shalit but instead warning that those responsible will ultimately
be punished if Shalit is hurt.

Given that Peretz has been offering a similar hollow warning for several
weeks about Qassam attacks there is no a priori reason for the Palestinians
to take his new warnings seriously.

As the security cabinet ended its meeting this evening, it would appear from
reports emanating from the meeting that Prime Minister Olmert and Peretz see
eye-to-eye on the "talk big and wait" approach.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il