IRAN'S SPACE PROGRAM: THE NEXT GENIE IN A BOTTLE?
Lee Kass*
MERIA Journal V.10, N.3 (September 2006)
Published by the GLORIA Center,
Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya

External support continues to help advance Iran's space effort. Tehran is
advancing its space program to satisfy numerous civil and military
objectives, including manufacturing satellites to accurately guide its
Shahab ballistic missiles. The United States and Israel remain gravely
concerned of Iranian efforts to gain more military power. The Iranian space
endeavor mimics a disturbing pattern other countries use clandestinely to
advance their long-range missile programs. Iran might reengineer the Shahab
to carry future satellites and try to obtain significant political rewards
from future satellite launches. Exploiting this event would unite Iran
politically, complicating Washington's regional objective, and further
destabilizing the region.

Iranian efforts to advance its space program follow an unsettling pattern
seen elsewhere. In slightly different ways and to varying degrees of
success, China, North Korea, and Pakistan use a civil space program
clandestinely to manufacture longer-range missiles to further safeguard
national security. Iran seeks to become a space power for similar reasons.
This is a concern to the United States and its allies. Unlike other Islamic
countries with satellites, the Iranian defense ministry plays a prominent
role in shaping the space effort with possible contributions from the
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). This military component manages the
Shahab ballistic missile program, which Iran might modify into a space
launch vehicle (SLV) with foreign support.

The United States and its allies find the Iranian space endeavor
threatening. Tehran seeks to build satellites to improve the military's
ability to target potential enemies and to closely monitor the region.
Enhancing the Shahab to become satellite-guided would allow Iran to strike
Israel and United States military forces stationed throughout the region
precisely. Statements from Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who
declared his intention to "wipe Israel off the map" and dismissed the United
States as a "hollow superpower," heighten the level of tension.

Iran might seek to develop a space program to improve national pride.
Successfully testing a launch vehicle would allow Iran to boast that it is a
space power. The propaganda Tehran espouses following this event might unite
the country. This would further legitimize Ahmadinejad's policies and
rhetoric, and generate greater regional and international fear regarding the
regime's intentions.

EFFORTS TO DEVELOP SPACE TECHNOLOGIES

Iranian efforts to exploit space began under the Shah who tried to improve
his country's scientific standing. In 1959, Tehran became a founding member
of the United Nations' Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
(UNCOPUOS). The United Nations' General Assembly requested that UNCOPUOS
review international collaborative programs to exploit space for civil
purposes, serve as a forum for information exchanges, and encourage the
development and facilitate the advancement of national programs to study
outer space.[1]

Iranian efforts to exploit space started over thirty years ago, which
demonstrates that the country put a premium on further understanding this
arena. Iran built a facility to obtain photographs soon after the United
States launched the first system designed to capture imagery of the Earth.
The Iranian Remote Sensing Center (IRSC) is responsible for gathering,
processing, and distributing relevant material to users throughout the
country for resource planning and management. The IRSC helps officials
determine suitable areas to develop, and its personnel maintained operations
while the country experienced a revolution and a devastating conflict with
neighboring Iraq.[2]

Partly as a response to Iran's eight-year war of attrition against Iraq,
Iranians wanted to improve their political, social, and economic standing.
As such, the people elected the pragmatist Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and
later, the reformist Muhammad Khatami as president. These leaders wanted to
further modernize the country partly with more Western financial assistance.
To encourage greater Western support, both presidents diminished the
fundamentalists' influence. Khatami issued various reforms to modernize the
country to include reinvigorating efforts for the nation to become more
active in space. He helped the country to view becoming a space power as a
vehicle for modernity. Some of the goals Tehran enumerated at a 2002
UNCOPUOS meeting reinforces this perception:

Commercializing space programs for Earth observation, and predicting
environmental changes;
Promoting international cooperation based on concepts of joint benefits;
Encouraging space efforts in the private sector to increase awareness within
the public of space and incorporate related initiatives into daily lives;
Developing a mastery of space science and technology directed to assist in
the development of space programs and commercial projects;
Increasing interest in space programs among the youth, who will play a
notable role in the country's future.[3]
Iran seeks to accomplish these and other broad objectives in order to become
more technologically advanced. Possessing imagery and other types of
material from space will assist Tehran to identify areas suitable for
development and those to be avoided because of their susceptibility to
earthquakes and floods.[4] Iran attempted partially to do that by
manufacturing satellites. On January 5, 2003, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani,
the country's former defense minister, stated that within eighteen months,
"Iran will be the first Islamic country to penetrate the stratosphere with
its own satellite and with its own launch system." According to Shamkhani,
the satellite launch would be in response to American actions: "The Persian
Gulf was once a place from which constant threats against the Islamic
Republic emanated. But now, with the resources that we are gaining, this
region cannot be used against us by any outside force." When he made this
announcement, Tehran figured it was the next target after coalition forces
met their objectives in Iraq. That has yet to occur, but Iran still seeks a
space capability partly because of America's growing regional presence.[5]
Developing these programs in response to the increased United States
presence indicates that Iran feels threatened and partly seeks to exploit
space to safeguard its own national security.
Iran apparently attempted to meet some of the above-noted goals starting in
April 2003. The legislature approved a bill to create the Iranian Space
Agency (ISA) to serve as a policy-formulating organization for space
initiatives. The ISA performs research on technology, remote sensing
projects, develops national space equipment, and participates in the
development of national and international space endeavors. It also
coordinates various space-related activities within the country's research
institutes, administrative agencies, and universities. These efforts also
help the ISA to execute decisions from the Supreme Aerospace Council.[6]

Iran's legislature created this body in December 2003[7] to approve various
space-related programs and to promote partnerships among other
organizations.[8] The council functions with input from senior government
officials. The ISA's director serves as the council's secretary, and the
country's president functions as chairman. Appointment of the president and
not the minister of science or another more knowledgeable stakeholder might
impede the advancement of current and future space projects, because the
president has numerous other matters to oversee and less expertise.
Nonetheless, his presence raises the ISA's profile. Other members include
the defense minister and four "space experts.[9] This arrangement raises
national security implications, because one of the unspecified space
specialists might include the IRGC's commander. Military reforms in 1989
slightly curtailed this group's independence from the defense ministry.
While the IRGC retains an independent command, it administratively functions
within the regular armed forces at the General Staff.[10] The Iranian
delegate neglected to disclose the IRGC or the council's efforts to
safeguard security at the 2002 UNCOPUOS meeting, possibly to minimize
accusations that it wanted to exploit space for military purposes.

DEVELOPING BALLISTIC MISSILES AS SPACE PROGRAMS

Reorganizing the Iranian aerospace sector can help the country more
effectively consolidate resources to advance various space efforts, such as
launching satellites onboard indigenously-developed SLVs. Nasser Maleki,
former deputy director of the Iranian aerospace organization, acknowledged
that the same technology used to manufacture missiles could also be used to
manufacture SLVs.[11] Building an SLV based on ballistic missile technology
has distinct advantages: lower cost, less time needed for training, and less
likelihood of international scrutiny because the same technology can apply
to manufacturing the SLV. These benefits might explain why Iran seeks to
deploy its satellites onboard indigenously-manufactured SLVs.[12] Tehran
will likely do that by modifying its road-mobile, single-stage, liquid
propellant Shahab ballistic missile. This and other liquid propellant
systems have many moving parts, which increase the chances of failure and
the launch preparation period. In contrast, solid propellant rockets have a
shorter launch preparation period, because the fuel is stored in the system
prior to launch. Iran has systems powered by both types of propellants,
which it could use for different stages of a SLV.

On February 7, 1999, Shamkhani, acknowledged his country's plans to
construct an SLV, the Shahab-4, indigenously. His statement marked the first
time an Iranian government official publicly admitted that the country
considered developing an SLV for civil purposes.[13] In September 2000, an
Iranian government spokesperson stated that the nation developed a modified
missile, the Shahab-3D, to launch communication satellites.[14] The
Shahab-3D is a two-stage projectile that underwent a flight test in
September 2000 using a combination of solid and liquid propellants. Three
years later, Tehran declared that it ended the Shahab-4 program.[15] The
effort might have restarted in early 2006. Some Western intelligence service
sources confirmed to a prominent German news agency that Iran successfully
fired the Shahab-4 on January 17, 2006 to measure different electronic and
aerodynamic tests in flight. Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the IRGC
commander, informed the public about the event on Iranian television on
January 28, 2006.[16] Perhaps he did that to remind the world that his
country could manufacture long-range ballistic missiles. Iran again flexed
its military's muscles with another Shahab-3 test while Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert met with United States President George Bush in
Washington in May 2006.
The Shahab system resembles North Korea's liquid propellant No-dong, which
both countries agreed to develop jointly. Their collaborative efforts
expanded in 1991, through the North Korean delivery of Scud-Cs to Iran in
exchange for hard currency. The United States responded by imposing
sanctions on the participant entities and opened talks with North Korea to
limit this country's nuclear program to ensure it solely served peaceful
purposes. These factors apparently motivated Iran to advance the Shahab
endeavor indigenously; based on No-dong design.[17]

Initially, Iran tried to build its newest Shahab ballistic missile without
North Korean support. However, Tehran experienced difficulties constructing
the engine. Iran requested and eventually obtained Pyongyang's help. North
Korean willingness to proliferate missile technology undermined the
government's claim that it stopped participating in the Iranian missile
effort. North Korean support helped Iran manufacture the Shahab-3. This
missile has a range of about 1,300 kilometers (810 miles), and its first
test flight occurred in July 1998. The IRGC soon obtained operational
control of the missile, and it continues to manage this program.[18]

Perhaps the IRGC encouraged senior Iranian government officials to broadcast
publicly the ballistic missile launches. Openly showcasing the missiles is a
notable development, particularly because Iran did that earlier with
different Shahab variants. On August 11, 2004, Iran tested the Shahab-A.
This missile has a range between 1,500 to 1,800 kilometers (approximately
930 to 1,120 miles). On September 17, 2004, Iran tested a longer-ranged
system, the Shahab-B. This event marked the first time Iranian engineers
publicly tested a missile with a reported range of between 2,000 to 2,500
kilometers (about 1,240 to 1,550 miles).[19] The 2004 tests were less of a
surprise to Uzi Rubin, the former founding director of Israel's Missile
Defense Organization, than the issuance of photography and video Tehran
released afterwards. According to Rubin, the event was a message of
confidence from Tehran in the Shahab-3 and a warning: The missile is
becoming more advanced not only as a system, but also as a comprehensive
weapons package.[20] Enhancing this missile into an integrated system
indicates that Iran seeks to capitalize on existing technology to become a
greater regional threat. Tehran seeks an SLV based on ballistic missiles, a
disturbing pattern seen elsewhere to varying degrees of success.

China developed SLVs partly based on its ballistic missile inventory. Its
first two Long March rockets were derived from modified intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Beijing continues primarily to use various Long
March SLVs to place satellites into orbit. At least two prominent Chinese
aerospace firms played a key role in this effort and have a history of
proliferating military-related technologies to Iran. In response, the U.S.
State Department sanctioned the China North Industries Corporation five
times since May 2003 and the China Precision Machinery Import-Export
Corporation (CPMIEC) or its managing group four times since 1991.[21] More
recently, the U.S. Treasury Department froze CPMIEC and three other Chinese
aerospace corporations' U.S.-held assets for providing or trying to
proliferate missile-related material to notable Iranian aerospace
corporations. According to the Treasury Department's statement, the Chinese
companies tried or succeeded in providing support to Iran's Shahid Henmat
Industrial Group (SHIG). SHIG manages liquid-fueled ballistic missile
efforts, to include the Shahab-III.[22] Attempts by Chinese entities to help
advance Iranian ballistic missile efforts undercut Beijing's claims that it
continues to support international nonproliferation efforts.

The Iranian SLV initiative advanced further with North Korean assistance. On
August 31, 1998, North Korea attempted to launch a satellite by
reengineering a ballistic missile. The Taepo-dong 1 failed to place its
satellite into orbit due to a mechanical failure. Nonetheless, the event
marked an important advancement in North Korea's missile program. The
country showcased some key requisites for developing longer-ranged
missiles--multi-stage separation, and advanced guidance mechanisms.
Moreover, Pyongyang now owned a multi-stage rocket capable of hitting
targets much further than its more publicized cousin, the shorter-range and
single-stage No-dong. Iran and Pakistan sent delegations to witness the 1998
launch. Their presence indicates that both nations could use Taepo-dong 1
technologies for their indigenous SLV efforts.[23] Perhaps this event
motivated Iran to conduct the September 2000 Shahab test using solid and
liquid stages.[24]

The level of support between North Korea and Iran reportedly improved in
late 2005. According to senior U.S. and Asian officials, a North Korean
freighter delivered some Soviet-era SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic
missiles. Iran could equip the missile on its three Russian-supplied
submarines, or incorporate some of the components into an SLV. Proliferating
complete systems to Iran represents a renewed level of cooperation between
both rogue states. Moreover, U.S. officials state that the delivery is a
technological advancement from earlier transfers, because the SS-N-6 has
components that can launch heavier loads over greater distances.[25]
Obtaining this missile will help advance the Iranian missile or space effort
and enhance North Korea's ability to proliferate weapons. This event further
undermines the difficulty of preventing the spread of dangerous weapons to
rogue states.

Equally troubling was the possible presence of Iranian representatives in
North Korea during its July 4, 2006 ballistic missile tests. Assistant
Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief United States negotiator with
Pyongyang, retracted statements he made at a Congressional hearing that an
Iranian delegation witnessed the seven launches. Nonetheless, Kim Tae-woo,
a South Korean analyst with the governmental Korea Institute for Defense
Analyses in Seoul, said, "There is a high probability of Iranian involvement
in these missile tests, but we don't have hard evidence."[26] The likelihood
that Iran witnessed the event further deepens Washington's concerns that
both rogue states seek to destabilize security by collaborating on different
ballistic missile efforts.

It is less clear whether Pakistan sent a delegation to witness the July 2006
tests. Nonetheless, Islamabad appears to be following North Korea's example.
Pakistan might produce an SLV by modifying its available Hatf 5 (Ghauri)
ballistic missile. The system can carry a nuclear warhead and has similar
design features to Iran's Shahab-3 and North Korea's No-dong ballistic
missile, which indicates possible cooperation. In addition, North Korea sent
either complete No-dongs or their engines to Pakistan and oil-rich Iran.
Islamabad also obtained intermediate-range ballistic missiles from North
Korea, apparently in exchange for sending Pyongyang highly enriched uranium
for use in the nuclear program.[27]

In March 1995, Pakistan renewed interest in the space program. President
Pervez Musharraf formally tasked the nation's space agency, the Space and
Upper Atmospheric Research Commission (SUPARCO), to explore and oversee the
building of an SLV and satellite. SUPARCO's former director, Salim Mehmud,
acknowledged that this organization sponsored studies that explored SLV
development. SUPARCO's technicians also built Pakistan's two Badr
spacecrafts. According to the infamous nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan,
Pakistan needs to develop SLVs and satellites in response to similar
advancements in neighboring India.[28]

North Korean and Iranian support to enhance Pakistan's space and ballistic
missile initiatives is a significant source of worry in India and the United
States. Washington imposed various "red lines" to prevent the transfer of
sensitive technologies to India. The United States attempted to maintain a
technological balance between India and Pakistan. However, under the United
States-Indian Next-Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) program, that
balance might soon tilt to India's advantage. Both democracies seek to
improve bilateral relations, partly through the establishment of more joint
civil space projects. However, the NSSP neglects to address India's
sophisticated and maturing missile program and its willingness to export
missile technologies abroad, to include Iran. Tehran would benefit from
Indian ballistic missile assistance, especially the Agni 2. The Agni 2
intermediate-range, mobile, and solid propellant system has a range of about
2,000 kilometers (1,245 miles) and a modified first stage that is likely
similar to the country's polar SLV. The Agni 2 will also serve as part of
India's undeveloped ICBM, the Surya. This system will have sufficient range
to hit China--India's other main external rival. The agreement Washington
reached with New Delhi has significant arms control implications. India
remains unwilling to follow weapon nonproliferation and nuclear test-ban
agreements, which it views as biased toward more powerful countries.[29]
India's experience in developing accurate missiles and satellites could
greatly benefit Iran.

Indian support will complement the knowledge Tehran obtained elsewhere,
especially from Russia. According to some U.S. officials, since late 1996,
Russia has been a main supplier of Iranian ballistic missile technology and
training.[30] Sixteen Iranian undergraduate students studied engineering and
rocketry at the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI), a leading facility involved
in various Soviet ICBM initiatives. Iran likely picked this facility because
its professors taught some Chinese students during the late 1950s, when
their country had a fledgling missile program. Iranian students at MAI
cultivated relationships with their professors and invited them to speak in
Tehran. Iran hosted dozens of Russian experts knowledgeable in guidance
systems, metallurgy, and aerodynamics.[31] Greater understanding of these
fields can help Iranian technicians further improve various missile
endeavors, partly by duplicating Chinese efforts.

Training students at prominent institutes was less of a concern to military
experts than the proliferation of Russian missile technologies to Iran. From
the Russian firm Energomash Science and Production Association, Iran
obtained components related to the RD-214 engine, used on the Soviet-era
SS-4 single stage and liquid propellant medium-range ballistic missile
(MRBM).[32] Moscow powered one stage of its SL-7 (R-12/Cosmos) SLV with a
RD-214 engine. Some Western military experts were more worried about this
component's transfer than the North Korean delivery of its No-dong ballistic
missiles to Iran, because the SS-4 has a larger warhead and longer-range,
about 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles).[33] This range will allow Tehran to
hit military and civilian targets throughout Asia and Europe.

Moscow views Tehran as a key vehicle for maintaining stability in the Near
and Middle East. Russia seeks to exploit Iran's regional influence to
maintain security in the sensitive trans-Caucuses and Persian Gulf in order
to undermine efforts by Muslim terrorists to establish a greater foothold
there.[34] Expanding this partnership will likely become a more vital
component of both countries' national security as they increase cooperation
into other sectors. Lucrative oil contrasts will further improve bilateral
relations, hindering Washington's ability to isolate Iran diplomatically and
economically.

The U.S. intelligence community remains worried about Tehran's desire to
manufacture SLVs, because they have most of the key components needed to
build an ICBM.[35] Recent initiatives to enhance the Shahab-3 reinforce the
concern. Shamkhani stated that his country possesses the technology to
mass-produce Shahab-3s.[36] Iran's ability to do that might have contributed
to U.S. Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte's
acknowledgement that Tehran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles
in the region.[37] Iran's ability to build and deploy this missile quickly,
complicates efforts to assess accurately the numbers and develop
countermeasures. Moreover, Tehran publicly acknowledged that it increased
this missile's range to about 2,000 kilometers (1,245 miles). Many European
politicians and military officials fear that Iran seeks to target areas
beyond the Middle East. One Western diplomat questioned the reasoning for
Tehran to develop longer-range missiles, "Why design a Rolls-Royce if it is
needed to deliver a pizza?"[38] Iran is already capable of hitting Israel
and most regional U.S. military facilities with the Shahab-3. Improvements
to this program demonstrate that Iran seeks a sophisticated and long-range
missile program, possibly to target countries beyond the Middle East. Ali
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Iranian president and current leader of the
Expediency Council, a body that mediates between the regime's institutions,
reinforced such concerns by stating that countries possessing missiles
similar to the Shahab-3 could modify their systems to reach all other
stages--presumably to include intercontinental ranges. He also said that the
country could consider developing a satellite program from advancements in
the missile field and the defense ministry's involvement.[39] The statement
not only reemphasized that the country's space program would have a military
component, but it would also exploit missile technology to produce an SLV.

Iran's space program and its efforts to develop long-range missiles have yet
to generate sufficient global concern. Richard Speier, an arms control
expert at the National Defense University, surmises that the international
community remains unconcerned, because the space program remains relatively
low-profile.[40] In addition to concurring with this assessment, Patrick
Clawson, an Iranian expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy,
points out that Tehran has a history of making grandiose statements about
possessing a certain technological feat long before it is operational.[41]
For instance, in July 1999, Iran's government-run radio announced that the
country would launch three satellites within two years.[42] That has yet to
happen, which reinforces the perception that an operational Iranian space
capability is mere rhetoric. Clawson surmises that the world also believes
Tehran lacks the requisite infrastructure to develop an independent
satellite production program.[43] Perhaps that explains why the press
departments in the White House and U.S. State and Defense departments did
not issue official statements or comments the week after Russia launched
Iran's first satellite. Ahmadinejad's speech the previous day about his plan
to "wipe Israel off the map" overshadowed the event.[44] Political rhetoric
aside, the Iranian
space endeavor is a growing threat.

COLLABORATIVE SPACE EFFORTS WITH CHINA AND REGIONAL FORUMS

The danger that Iran's space program poses to regional security will likely
increase with greater cooperation with China. According to Ahmad Motamedi,
Iran's Minister of Communications and Information Technology, China is an
attractive partner partly because of its ability to launch 40 rockets
successfully since 1996.[45] Beijing not only has a mature space effort, but
key programs that have military applications. Two examples are the
Brazilian-Chinese joint project to launch a remote-sensing satellite
constellation and Beijing's active involvement in the European Galileo
global positioning system (GPS) project. Critics argue that China can
replicate the technologies from this project to manufacture an indigenous
GPS navigation program or exploit current vulnerabilities.[46] One Chinese
aerospace journal already explored some of the system's susceptibilities, to
include attacks from space or ground-based lasers and anti-satellites.
China's involvement in the Galileo effort could help Beijing reaffirm or
disprove the efficacy of these methods, which could also benefit Iran in
producing similar systems.[47]

Chinese technicians assist their Iranian counterparts through regional
endeavors. The Small Multi-Mission Satellite (SMMS) project is an effort to
collaborate on various space projects, to include building a satellite.
China and Iran continue to lead this initiative. The spacecraft will enter
orbit onboard a Chinese SLV to perform civilian remote sensing and
communications experiments. Iranian technicians continue to build the remote
sensing camera. Some of the technologies used to develop the device can
enhance Iran's long-term reconnaissance capabilities.[48]

The SMMS effort is overseen by the Asia-Pacific Multilateral Cooperation in
Space Technology and Applications (AP-MCSTA) group. The AP-MCSTA attempts to
encourage information exchanges in space technology among countries in the
Asia-Pacific region.[49] The AP-MCSTA helps Iran and technicians from other
countries obtain more knowledge, often through classes and conferences.
Participants in the AP-MCSTA and China's National Space Administration
jointly developed training opportunities to establish relationships and
exchange knowledge. Over 120 participants from approximately 30 countries
attended a two-week course at China's Academy of Space Technology in
mid-2005 to learn about space-related topics. Some of the courses explored
satellite structure, orbit control, micro-satellite design, remote sensing,
and spacecraft engineering project management.[50] Iran and other developing
nations will benefit from these and other topics, because they can obtain a
greater understanding of how to establish, effectively manage, and complete
various space initiatives.

Lectures are a notable way for Iran to establish and cultivate relationships
with experts. China's Ma Wenpo taught the June-July 2005 class on remote
sensing. He also wrote an article that not only explained the role that
internal calibration sensors play in assisting remote sensing ground
stations to obtain accurate imagery from satellites, but also assessed
different systems.[51] This information would help Iran build facilities
equipped with the technology to effectively capture and distribute space
imagery, greatly enhancing its early-warning capabilities. Tehran's
engagement in regional organizations and interactions with experts in
classrooms are vehicles to establish and cultivate relationships with
foreign technicians in order to advance its military programs.

IRANIAN CIVIL AND MILITARY SPACE GOALS

Tehran recognizes that it must swiftly advance the space endeavor to avoid
Western sanctions. Iran fears that such measures will occur once the West
concludes that it seeks to manufacture sophisticated reconnaissance
satellites. As Muhammad Reza Movaseghinia, an Iranian space official, noted,
"We have to move quickly and achieve our goals in space. Otherwise we will
face political, economic and security threats."[52] The space program is
important to Iran, because it views becoming a space power as a vehicle for
survival against perceived external dangers.

On October 27, 2005, Iran met a key aerospace objective by becoming the 43rd
nation to own a satellite. The Sinah-1 spacecraft entered orbit onboard a
Russian rocket to monitor natural disasters and observe agricultural
trends.[53] According to Director General of Iran Electronic Industries
Ebrahim Mahmoudzadeh, Russia also built the $15 million spacecraft. Tehran
initially planned to construct the satellite, but its manufacturer, the
Iranian Institute of Applied Research, experienced technical difficulties
and requested Russian assistance.[54] Moscow provided Iran with support and
planned to launch Sinah-1 in September 2005. However, according to Moscow's
chief of the press service of Space Troops, Colonel Aleksei Kuznetsov,
manufacturing delays in Sinah-1 postponed the launch until October 2005.[55]

The Sinah-1's primary mission is to demonstrate that Iran can possess an
operational satellite. The country's deputy telecommunications minister and
head of the space program admitted that it could technically spy on Israel,
but Ahmad Talebzadeh stated he could obtain more detailed imagery
commercially.[56] According to Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer who
monitors the Iranian space effort, commercial photography is frequently too
old and inaccurate for spying and determining military targets.[57] Perhaps
Iran might soon build a sophisticated reconnaissance spacecraft. Muhammad
Enterazi, a satellite program manager, noted that, "We are at the very
beginning of a long, long road in space technology. But we have the
potential to develop an ingenious space program."[58] Unless stopped,
Iranian specialists could apply the knowledge gained from the Sinah-1
project to construct more powerful satellites.

Manufacturing an independent satellite is likely to occur through
development of the 60-kilogram (130 pound) Mesbah spacecraft. The system is
initially intended to obtain pictures for a variety of civilian purposes, to
include greater data collection and distribution, assisting in efforts to
find natural resources and to more accurately predict the weather.
Eventually, Iran will modify the satellite for remote sensing. The military
could benefit from this technology, because it could obtain knowledge of
where to build suitable facilities. The Iran Telecommunications Research
Center (ITRC) and the Iran Science Organization of Science and Technology
(IROST) are jointly building this micro-satellite with the Italian company
Carlo Gavazzi Space. Construction of Mesbah began in 1997, just before the
start of then-Iranian President Muhammad Khatami's second term. On August 4,
2005, the day after Ahmadinejad succeeded Khatami, Tehran showcased Mesbah
in an unveiling ceremony. Once operational, personnel from ITRC/IROST will
control it from a ground station in Tehran throughout its three-year
lifespan. Mesbah will augment Iran's understanding of space technology and
further increase its scientific standing throughout the region and
developing world.[59]

Mesbah was scheduled to enter orbit in early 2006 onboard a Russian rocket.
Perhaps Iran decided against using Russia to launch future satellites after
it placed the Arab Satellite Communications Organization 4A spacecraft in an
incorrect orbit. The February 28, 2006 setback marked the third in 36
launches for the Proton launch vehicle program since it starting launching
commercial systems.[60] Russia's inability to place the 4A in its proper
orbit might cause Iran to consider exploring other options, to include using
an indigenously-developed SLV, to launch Mesbah or other systems.

Mesbah could serve as a springboard for Iran to manufacture more
sophisticated reconnaissance satellites. Doing that would meet one of the
country's goals,[61] undermining Tehran's claims that the space program is
solely intended for peaceful purposes. One Israeli defense source stated
that Iran's space program is a significant concern to the Jewish state.
According to this official, Israel fears that if the military launches a
strike to disable the Iranian nuclear program, "[_] the last thing we need
is Iranian early warning received by satellite."[62] Obtaining imagery that
shows increased activity at Israeli Air Force facilities might cause Tehran
to conclude that Jerusalem seeks to launch a preemptive aerial attack on
Iran's nuclear sites. Advanced knowledge of such an operation would
undermine Israel's efforts to achieve total surprise because Iran would have
more time to prepare its defenses and to transfer personnel and nuclear
material to more secure locations. Technicians could then continue the
nuclear effort confident that their country has an enhanced early-warning
capability to further safeguard national security.

To meet this objective possibly, Iranian technicians are developing two
similar reconnaissance systems. The Iranian Defense Ministry initiated an
endeavor to manufacture the Sepehr satellite.[63] The ministry's close
involvement reinforces the argument that Iran will exploit space to become
more militarily powerful. Iran contracted with the Russian company M.F.
Reshetnev Scientific-Production Association of Applied Mechanics (NPO PM,
Zheleznogorsk) to build the $132 million Zohreh satellite. Zohreh is
designed to provide Iranians with numerous services to include television
and radio broadcasts, internet, and e-mail access. Technicians from NPO PM
will assist their Iranian counterparts to control the system, which will
increase the system's functionality, because it can avoid space debris and
other satellites.[64] Possessing advanced reconnaissance spacecrafts could
greatly help Iran, particularly after a natural disaster, because emergency
personnel could effectively coordinate relief efforts. The military can also
exploit this technology by rapidly distributing orders to forces to
neutralize potential threats. Sending and receiving data quickly throughout
the theater is a key characteristic of a sophisticated military, which Iran
seeks to further modernize with space assets. Sepehr and Zohreh will allow
Tehran to closely monitor developments in Israel and neighboring Iraq and
respond accordingly whenever a threat arises.

Iran is partly considering building small satellites because they have
distinct advantages. Besides their size, micro-satellites are lightweight
and inexpensive. Tehran might exploit these advantages to develop an
anti-satellite weapon, even though that would undermine the spirit of the
1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits Iran (and other treaty
participants) from placing weapons on space systems.[65] Moreover, Tehran
would weaken its obligations under United Nations General Assembly
Resolution 37/99. Parties to this document agree to a comprehensive
disarmament of various weapon systems, to include anti-satellite systems
(Annex D). Tehran favored the request that the United Nations' Conference on
Disarmament continue to deliberate on an effective and verifiable agreement
to prevent an arms race in outer space.[66] The level of Iranian willingness
in meeting these documents objectives will shed some light on the country's
space program, including focus areas, deficiencies, and future international
collaborative efforts. Knowledge of these fields will help the international
community to more effectively assess Iran's projects and establish ways to
prevent Tehran from exploiting space to further jeopardize international
security.

SPACE AND NATIONAL PRIDE

Iran fervently believes that it has a sovereign right to sophisticated
technologies, to include a space and nuclear program. Tehran views these
endeavors as sources of national pride and a victory against some external
forces, which Shamkhani accused of stifling the country's scientific
advancements.[67] Iran's return to space with an indigenously-produced SLV
would make the country the first in the Islamic world with this capability.
Therefore, a mature space effort would provide Iran with more national pride
than the nuclear program, because Pakistan could boast that it is the first
to own "an Islamic bomb." However, all Islamic countries lack the scientific
infrastructure to launch satellites independently. Iran wants to change
that.
Iran and Saudi Arabia use Russia to launch their spacecrafts. Saudi Arabia's
six satellites entered orbit onboard Russian rockets. It has many SLVs that
can carry small satellites, which is beneficial to Saudi Arabia because
engineers have greater flexibility in picking the launch date.[68] The
Kingdom views space as a source of national pride. Muhammad bin Ibrahim
al-Souail, vice president for Research Institutes at the King Abdulaziz City
for Science and Technology (KACST), explained that the engineers who built
the Saudisat-1 and Saudisat-2 satellites obtained specialized knowledge,
which will serve as a springboard for other related initiatives.[69]

The spacecrafts that Russia hoisted were indigenously-constructed at the
Space Research Institute (SRI) in KAAST. SRI also supports the spread and
advancement of space technology. The country's other notable space facility
is the Saudi Center for Remote Sensing (SCRS). Saudi Arabia established the
center in 1986, because it recognized that remote sensing had numerous civil
benefits. Enhancements to SCRS allow it to obtain and distribute imagery
simultaneously from multiple foreign remote sensing systems.[70]

Saudi Arabia's space effort is far more mature than Iran's, yet generates
significantly less international concern. According to Turki bin Sa'ud bin
Muhammad al-Sa'ud, head of KAAST, his facility completely financed the
Saudisat-1 and Saudisat-2 satellites without assistance from the defense
ministry or any other government entity. The director called any claims that
the two systems had a military purpose "baseless." The satellites are
intended solely for telecommunications and research purposes.[71] KAAST's
ability to completely fund this initiative demonstrates Saudi Arabia's
desire to exploit space solely for civil purposes.

In contrast, the Iranian space effort is a growing source of international
unease. The defense ministry and possibly the IRGC play a more prominent
role in the country's space program. Their involvement, Iranian motivations
for becoming a space power, behavior, and cooperation with countries that
cloak their long-range ballistic missile efforts behind a civil space
project, raises disturbing questions about this nation's intentions in
space.

The international community will likely react to a future Iranian SLV launch
in a similar manner to North Korea's August 1998 failed attempt to place a
satellite into orbit using a reengineered ballistic missile. North Korea's
Taepo-dong 1 launch was a key factor that reinvigorated efforts within the
United States to develop a ballistic missile defense shield. Iran's SLV
launch will generate greater European support for the U.S. ballistic missile
defense program. The event will also increase pressure on the European Union
states of United Kingdom, Germany, and France to resolve the Iranian nuclear
issue before the IRGC can threaten Europe with a miniaturized nuclear
warhead onboard a modified missile.

Iran seeks to challenge Israel's regional monopoly in outer space. Israel is
the only regional actor who can deploy satellites onboard
indigenously-manufactured SLVs. The Shavit SLV is a modified Jericho MRBM
that placed numerous civilian and military systems in space. The space
program is a tremendous source of pride for Israel. Hayim Eshed, head of the
Israeli Defense Ministry Space Administration, boasted that "With the
exception of the Americans, we are superior to all other countries in two
fields of satellite technology--resolution of photographs and picture
quality."[72]

Israel further enhanced its satellite technologies with the April 25, 2006
launch of its Earth Remote Observation Satellite (EROS)-B photo
reconnaissance system. The EROS-B entered orbit onboard a Russian SLV to
capture imagery of Iran's military facilities. The satellite's sophisticated
camera significantly enhances Israeli photo reconnaissance capabilities. One
Israeli defense official stated that the satellites could find images as
small as 27.5 inches. The system can also photograph activities in ballistic
launch sites to obtain advanced warning of potential strikes and study
future missile tests. The same source remarked that "the most important
thing in a satellite is its ability to photograph and its resolution."[73]
Israel has an edge over others in the region in satellite technology, which
Iran seeks to change quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

The Iranian space effort resembles a disturbing pattern seen earlier to
varying degrees of success. North Korea, China, and Pakistan cloak their
efforts to modify ballistic missiles within a civil space program. Iran
seeks to repeat history partly by exchanging ballistic missile technologies
with these and other parties. This international assistance might eventually
help Iran launch an indigenously-developed SLV. Such an event would generate
global concern in a manner similar to North Korea's 1998 failed satellite
launch.

Despite the distinct possibility of such an occurrence, Iran's space program
has yet to generate sufficient global concern. The United States and its
allies will certainly view the Iranian space project as a greater threat
once Tehran owns satellites that can find and accurately guide missiles to
their targets. Iran seeks spacecraft to achieve this feat and to further
enhance the military's capabilities.

Iran's reentrance into space using an indigenously-developed system would
provide the country with an unprecedented amount of national pride. Becoming
a space power would unite the Iranian people and further legitimize the
leadership's policies. Achieving this technological feat would also
significantly increase Iran's global position and create new concerns for
the international community. The United States, Israel, and others have a
great deal to fear once Tehran unleashes its next genie.

*Lee Kass is a Defense Contractor in McLean, Virginia. His focus areas are
arms control, missile defense, nuclear strategy, conflict resolution, and
the Middle East. His publications include "Syria after Lebanon: The Growing
Syrian Missile Threat," which appeared in the fall 2005 edition of Middle
East Quarterly, and he co-authored the cover article "Observation From
Orbit," which appeared in the December 2003 edition of Jane's International
Defense Review.

NOTES
[1] Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly, 1472 (XIV). International
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[2] "Interview of Dr. A.A. Amidian with Tehran Times Int. Daily on
NOV-13-2002," http://www.isa.ir/en/rs/.
[3] International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space:
Activities of Member States in 2002 National Activities of Iran (Islamic
Republic of), United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs,
http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/natact/2002/iran.html, last updated February 7,
2003.
[4] "Iranian Minister Invites China to Help Design, Build Small Satellites,"
Tehran TV, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS)
FEA20051031011879, November 1, 2005.
[5] "Russia-Iran Satellite Deal Seen Removing Threat of US Strike,"
Kommersant, February 2, 2005, pp. 1, 9, FBIS CEP20050202000292.
[6] "International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space:
Activities of Member States in 2003," United Nations Office for Outer Space
Affairs, http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/natact/2003/iran.html, last updated
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[7] Remarks of Dr. HE Motamedi, Minister of Communications and Information
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[8] "International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space:
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[9] "Iranian Cabinet Approves Establishment of Supreme National Space
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[12] "Russia: Journal Details Iranian Development of Diverse Missile
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[19] Ibid.
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[27] Larry A. Niksch, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program," Order Code
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[30] Katzman, Updated January 3, 2003, Congressional Research Service.
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[32] "Part II of Iran's Missile Program Article," Izvestiya, October 22,
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[33] Clifford Beal, and Ed Blanche "Iran's Shahab-4 is Soviet SS-4, Says US
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[57] Broad and Sanger, "Iran Joins Space Club."
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MERIA Journal Staff
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