Weekly Commentary: From failure to failure - the Livni Plan - and test for
Olmert
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 28 December, 2006

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has a plan.

"I'm talking about an operative diplomatic plan with quite a high
resolution. I won't reveal all the details to you now, but I can tell you
that I, for my part, know exactly what must be done."
[The Livni Plan - Interview by Ari Shavit - Haaretz Magazine Section 29
December 2006 www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/806887.html ]

But first, a reality check.

Livni: "The diplomatic result of the war - UN General Assembly Resolution
1701 - is a success."

That's right. The same Livni who is confidently certain that she has a
great plan for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict (launching final status
talks while indefinitely postponing Palestinian compliance) thinks 1701 was
"a success".

"1701 is a success" - the Israeli hostages remain in Lebanon.

"1701 is a success" - Hezbollah not only wasn't disarmed but has rearmed,
replacing the missiles it fired at Israel in the war as it remains deployed
in south Lebanon.

The last thing Israel needs is another such "success".

Foreign Minister Livni certainly has confidence in diplomacy:

"The separation fence provided a solution for the suicide bombers and it
began the process of partition, but it is not providing a solution to the
present security problems (rocket fire). We have to find an answer for them
in a diplomatic context."

Does Livni have in mind the same kind of "successful" arrangement in the
West Bank as there is now in Lebanon?

But what's wrong with postponing Palestinian security compliance and sitting
down now to hammer out deal creating a sovereign Palestinian state?

Wouldn't it be easier for the Palestinian "moderates" to finally get around
to honoring their security obligations if they could show their people a
final status agreement in the offing?

Naïve question.

From the day that Yasser Arafat got away with donning a military uniform
instead of the agreed business suit at his first Kodak moment on the White
House Lawn, Palestinian compliance has been anything but compulsory.

And the same combination of excuses, denial and wishful thinking that got
the Palestinian leadership this far without them having to actually breakup
the ever growing terror infrastructure will come into play after the
photo-op signing ceremony.

"Yes, there is an agreement, but the Palestinian street won't disarm until
they see that the occupation is actually over on the ground."

"The moderates need time to establish themselves before they can act."

"The new state is too fragile for the civil war that a clash over disarming
promises."

"We can't let a small minority hold implementation up."

And of course the ever popular: "and there weren't attacks before?"

If anything, Palestinian implementation of security obligations would serve
as an important learning experience for the actors who might ultimately
engage in final status talks. The radically different Palestinian and
Israeli interpretations of the current Palestinian obligations and whether
the Palestinians actually fulfilled them would serve to force the final
status negotiators to address this critical problem instead of bury it under
more layers of broken agreements.

Will Israel finally hold its ground and truly insist on compliance?

Prime Minister Olmert, who sees Livni's program as a challenge against his
authority, first responded today by opposing such a move.

But talk is cheap.

Next week's meeting in Egypt provides Olmert with an opportunity to
demonstrate a genuine change in Israel's attitude towards security.

Instead of following the Israeli tradition of publicly kissing Mubarak's
backside while he openly criticizes the Jewish State before the cameras,
Prime Minister Olmert can opt to express Israel's disappointment with Egypt's
systematic failure to stop the flood of weapons into Gaza and insist that
they honor their treaty obligations.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il