Weekly Commentary: War now better than greater disaster later
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 8 March, 2007

Israel paid the cost in Lebanon for "ceteris paribus", the simplifying
working assumption a generation of withdrawal advocates have employed in
order to grossly understate the dangerous nature of their policy
recommendations.

All other things were hardly equal. The Arabs also made moves on the board.

And yet despite this rude awakening, the Olmert team appears to be no more
the wiser in its approach towards the ever worsening situation in the Gaza
Strip.

Yes. Security officials have warned at every available forum that the
Palestinians are exploiting the security hiatus (aka "cease fire") to
transform the Gaza Strip into a possibly improved version of Hezbollah
controlled southern Lebanon.

"Improved" because the sheer size of the Palestinian force being turned into
a trained army is considerably larger than what Hezbollah could field in
Lebanon.

There may not be money to feed hungry mouths in Gaza but there's no shortage
of funds for soldiers, weapons and a massive unprecedented series of
Palestinian military construction projects that promises to make Israeli
operations much more costly than anything Israel has experienced until now
in the Gaza Strip or West Bank.

But policy doesn't reflect this nightmarish reality.

Instead of sending a clear message that this security threat is in and of
itself a clear and present danger - a
causus belli - the Olmert team seems to be saying that Israel is willing to
not only continue with the security hiatus in the Gaza Strip but also to
extend it to the West Bank if the Palestinians would be so kind as to limit
their activities to preparing for war against the Jewish State.

As if there is no significance to these ongoing developments.

As if nothing is really changing in the basic equation.

Ceteris paribus

Sheer madness.

The message should not be that we want the Palestinians to stop using their
weapons but instead that they must put down their weapons.

Put down their weapons today - not at some indefinite time in the future.

The message should be that the Palestinians have exploited the security
hiatus to create a situation on the ground that will require Israel to
employ military tactics that, though perfectly legal, won't look good on
CNN.

Yes, it was foolhardy to think that retreating from Gaza would advance
peace.

But it is the Palestinians and their supporters who are to blame,
nonetheless, for exploiting the retreat and the security hiatus that
followed.

And what after a massive brutal Israeli operation to chop down the monster
that grew in "liberated" Gaza?

Some things are already clear: an effective Israeli security envelope must
be restored as must conditions for freedom of Israeli security action - just
as there is in the West Bank.

This doesn't preclude either economic development or local autonomy.

But since freedom can't include the freedom to attack Israel, the
Palestinians, by their behavior, have taken sovereignty off the agenda for
the foreseeable future.

Now this may not be a message that some of in Foggy Bottom may want to hear.
But it's the truth.

And the sooner we face up to reality, share it with the world and deal with
it, the better off all of us will be.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il