Haaretz poll: Barak benefited most from Ayalon-Peretz pact
By Yossi Verter, Haaretz Correspondent Last update - 05:47 07/06/2007
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/868214.html

The political "deal" between Ami Ayalon and Amir Peretz has not given Ayalon
the unequivocal advantage he had hoped for. The competition between Ayalon
and Ehud Barak, who reached a "deal" of his own Wednesday with Ophir
Pines-Paz, remains close, with only a slight statistical advantage to
Ayalon.
These are the findings of a joint poll by Haaretz-Dialog Wednesday evening
among a sample of registered Labor Party members, who will be called on this
Tuesday to decide between Barak and Ayalon in the race for Labor's
leadership.

The poll explains why Barak succumbed Wednesday to Pines-Paz's pressure to
give the prime minister an ultimatum and target date - the submission of the
final report by the Winograd Committee - for Labor's resignation from the
government.

The contest between him and Ayalon may be decided by just several hundred
votes: those of Pines-Paz voters. According to the poll, overseen by
Professor Camil Fuchs of the Tel Aviv University statistics department, if
the primaries were held today, Ayalon would get 47 percent, and Barak 43
percent.

In practice, it is neck-in-neck. On the eve of the first round, most polls
gave Ayalon a clear advantage over Barak. But Barak beat Ayalon by a
5-percent majority, mainly because of the organized voting in his favor in
the Arab and Druze sectors, and his effective campaign machine, which has
the backing of the Histadrut union leaders.

The pollsters asked how members intended to vote before Ayalon and Peretz
agreed to cooperate. Forty-four percent would have voted for Ayalon and 34
percent for Barak. In other words, Ayalon gained a mere 3 percent from his
political marriage to Peretz, while Barak swept up 9 percent.